What want silver spot need to be for you to sell?

[jayboat]

As the title says, what price would silver need to be for you to sell if any?

I personally plan to stack silver until the stg ratio is around 40-1. I will then swap about 90% of my silver into gold and start the stack gold until the stg ratio is around 60-1 to swap back into silver. I will rinse and repeat this until i retire. I have about 35 years the play with so i would hope to the complete this cycle at least once within that time. So for me its only important what the spot price is for whatever metal i hold in around 2050.

There are alot of around and about's there, i always try the plan easy. One thing i learnt is that life have to many variables to plan 10-20 years ahead. I could be living in a different country in 10 years are both the kids could have become independent, you just do not no. Better just to keep a main objective. 

 

If i had to put on a number on it within the next 5 years, if it went to £45-50ish, my plan might change and i would buy a rental property and restart the main objective and start stacking again from fresh.

 

[silversword]

I think I would want to work out the cost of my stack, adjust for inflation, and then see a decent profit before selling, however I would not necessarily sell at my desired price point if I have nothing to do with the cash afterwards. So, if silver did hit £30/oz that would be an excellent "consider it" point, but I'd only pull the trigger if something else is there to move the cash into or I desperately need/want money.

[Scuzzle]

I've always said that if spot goes to double my stack cost then I will be selling half my stack to make the half thats left effectively "free".   If spot continues to rise to something ridiculous then I still have enough to sell and if it drops then I can just wait or switch back to buying on dips and cost averaging back downwards and I will grow my ounces.

 

[garthy]

The plan for me is to sell my silver to pay off my mortgage when they find parity.

I have no idea when that will be but that's the plan, my gold will stay with me till I retire.

[Roy]

Should you hold PMs while you are in debt?

(open question garthy )

[HawkHybrid]

4 minutes ago, Roy said:

Should you hold PMs while you are in debt?

(open question garthy )

 

should you raise debt to start a business?

it all depends on the cost and opportunity calculations?

evaluate your positions regularly and try and make the best

choice with the info you have at hand?

 

HH

[Roy]

Yes, yes, yes.

But debt costs you interest, PMs do not earn interest. 

 

[garthy]

6 minutes ago, Roy said:

Should you hold PMs while you are in debt?

(open question garthy )

If you want a house you have to get in debt....well unless you're pretty wealthy, but it's a manageable debt and we all have to live somewhere, get a mortgage or pay rent forever, they were my options and I like to think I made the right choice.

 

[HawkHybrid]

mortgage rates are historically low?

pm prices are historically low(inflation adjusted)?

maybe it's worth a punt?

 

HH

[Roy]

It was the right choice.

But you pay interest on that debt and your PMs are not earning you anything.

[Roy]

10 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

mortgage rates are historically low?

pm prices are historically low(inflation adjusted)?

maybe it's worth a punt?

 

HH

I have considered this.

'Do you feel lucky?'

It's down to personal choice 

And there is no such thing as manageable debt 

[ChrisSilver]

4 hours ago, Roy said:

Should you hold PMs while you are in debt?

(open question garthy )

Not to go off topic from the original OP question. I will start a new topic

[jayboat]

After you adjust for inflation, silver all time high is around $100 when the Hunt brothers did their thing during the early 80's. I am not sure if that should count as the real all time high as it's very unlikely to repeat. 

[vand]

Nice planning, Jay. I have a very similar very long-term strategy myself. Swap most of my holdings of one metal for the other when the GSR moves 2.5 standard deviations away from its 5yr long term average, and in the middle buy a bit of both. This will only need to be done about once every 4-5 years on average.

Fiat prices by themselves are less important. I tend to use price ratios for just about everything now, so I'll look at the FTSE/Gold ratio, House prices/gold ratio etc when deciding whether to swap out of PMs into other assets.

 

By the end of this bull market when we hit the mania phase I can well see the GSR going as low as 20, maybe even single digits. 

[vand]

On the "everyday item" scale, the right price for offloading my silver will be when 1oz can buy me roughly...

- 1 day's wages of the average worker

- A good suit 

- A 1-month travelcard

- A case of good wine

 

[jayboat]

Nice reply Vand, so your around £100-120 an oz in today fiat

I had never thought about it that way, why only stick to silver and gold swapping when you can get busy with other stuff? Deffo a good idea and something i am likely to send a few hours researching. But as of right now, i no silver and gold and that's it.

If the GSR ever hit 20 and i swapped out @40, i just may become an alcoholic. haha 

I often think about how many great tips and techniques are in the heads of the forum members and think a few pints every month together and we would all be millionaires in a few years, hahaha

[Roy]

I don't understand? A GSR of 20 or less? How and why?

[HawkHybrid]

historically gold was valued at mine production which gives

a gsr 1:15. some hope silver will be revalued more closely

to it's mine production as above ground silver supplies run

low.

 

HH

[Roy]

Historically, people thought the world was flat.

 

[HawkHybrid]

if the gsr goes under 1:15 it's relatively safe to say that

it's likely a good time to swap out silver for gold.

 

HH

[Vern]

I dont want a crowded market when I unload my massive 100 gram pamp silver so lets say Mums the word.  

 

[Pete]

As a vintage stacker, pre-forum, I need about £30 per oz to break even.
If we ever see this pricing level I will dump silver altogether as it has been a poor investment.

[jayboat]

I personally do not think we will see a GRS of under 30 in our lifetimes. 

@Pete, I am hoping that when dump day comes, your stack will have grown in premium and you finish with a plus return for your efforts. 

[vand]

16 hours ago, Roy said:

I don't understand? A GSR of 20 or less? How and why?

One thing that history teaches us is that when a bull market becomes entrenched then it will run and run and run. And then when you think it cannot go any further, it will run some more.. and more.

Did anyone foresee a 45 year bull market in treasuries when currencies were close to the verge of collapse in 1980?

Did anyone thing that housing would appreciate 3 times in real terms in 1995? And how have premium London prices triple even against the wider market? Surely its all just bricks and mortar?

Show me a bull market that has only run 50%-100% and I'll show you a dead cat bounce.

Look at historical ratios and they are everywhere. Dow/Gold has historically gone between 1:1 and 45:1. That's a 45 fold difference in valuation of one against the other, simply because of different times and and different circumstances has meant people prefer holding one and not the other. On that basis, it's not incredible to think that silver could be revalued 3-10 times against gold from here (and multiples of that against other asset classes).

[Murph]

On 02/08/2016 at 10:59, vand said:

On the "everyday item" scale, the right price for offloading my silver will be when 1oz can buy me roughly...

- 1 day's wages of the average worker

- A good suit 

- A 1-month travelcard

- A case of good wine

 

I don't think it will ever even get to the price of a day's wages of an average worker - possibly around £120 once you remove the highest earners that skew averages or a case of half decent wine at around £300 or a good suit - maybe starting around £500.