Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[Spyder]

20 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

85 GSR and a > -5% day drop has been tempting me all day, so just bought 1.5 times my body weight worth of silver (SSLN), so expect the price to drop, if not break my back

Paired with a equal amount of FCIT shares (that's recently at a reasonable/modest discount to NAV, 8% or 9% free shares )).

Target to swap the silver for gold at a 57 GSR if/whenever that might be ... 50% more ounces of gold type target (perhaps Britannia one ounce gold coins).

 In March 2011 it went all the way down 38. 

Still think bullionvault is the best place to get exposure on silver. Now that it is back below £700kg.  Will see what happens over the next week or so, if it goes under £650 or 90 GSR, might buy back the silver I sold at £810kg.  Regarding shares, keep an eye on CEY, and AAZ  Both down over 7% today UK markets.

[Chronos]

[Bratnia]

1 hour ago, Spyder said:

 Still think bullionvault is the best place to get exposure on silver. 

My stock/PM 50/50 asset allocation is in a ISA, hence SSLN ETC. Late starter to that, around £200K value (haven't yet added this years allowance) and topping it up each year with the £20K allowance from general accounts. With ii, but looking to move over to IBKR for the better (lower) FX costs. Hoping that IBKR permit trading of CME Futures within their ISA as for US exposure rolling Futures can be more cost efficient as you in effect get the gross dividend benefits without the US dividend withholding tax overheads (15% under UK/US tax treaty and assuming you have a W8BEN registered, otherwise 30%). Also hoping that Futures are outside of US Estate Tax capture (not a great concern as under US/UK tax treaty we get the same $12M+ exemption as Americans, provided you (heirs) fill in the correct forms, correctly filled in and submitted within the assigned time period, but would be nice if that wasn't necessary). For others its just $60K exemption, any more US assets held above that exposes you to having to file US Estate Tax forms.

[rant] Unfortunately as they ever increase anti-laundering lockdown measures - a.k.a. collect more sources of tax revenues, so things get more awkward/complicated. Even those on just the state pension only will soon have to start filing HMRC self assessments each year, and pay penalties for late or incorrect filings, so more will start having to pay £400/year for tax prepares. And of course if you phone HMRC you can typically wait 40 minutes on hold only to then be cut off and if you're lucky maybe get to speak to a 'agent' after the second 40 minute repeat try wait. Annoyingly for those that use a land line and pay per minute they auto-answer the call immediately to put you on hold so that they can claim that all calls were answered within seconds, whereas the caller might be paying for 1 hour 30 minutes of call connected time for just a brief 5 minute conversation with a HMRC agent.[/rant]

Edited July 25 by Bratnia

[gji25]

13 hours ago, ZRPMs said:

What the hell happened. 7.5% down on the last week. I thought we were of to the stars.

You thought wrong. fyi the price usually drops around this time of year as folks focus on spending there hard earned on holidays and keeping there kids occupied during the school holidays 👍

Edited July 25 by gji25
typo

[ZRPMs]

24 minutes ago, gji25 said:

You thought wrong. fyi the price usually drops around this time of year as folks focus on spending there hard earned on holidays and keeping there kids occupied during the school holidays 👍

 What the hell are folk doing. I just smear gravy on my kids and chuck them in the street to play with the neighbours dogs.

[bobski]

Current Price

£21.58

Live Change

0.04% £+0.01

Live high £21.59

 

Live low £21.56

[ccfcpaul]

Gotta laugh, if I didn't, I'd cry!

Bought +1.5kg of 50% pre47 silver last week. The auction house didn't put the weight, just the quantity and then undervalued the listings, so only unlazy people with a calculator and Google (confirm coin weight) knew it's true value.

It cost £21 a pure ounce inc postage . Nice little bargain, as when I put my away bids in, spot was 24.20ish.

Finally received it today.... Not so much a bargain as it turned out lol

[Earthmetal]

35 minutes ago, ccfcpaul said:

Gotta laugh, if I didn't, I'd cry!

Bought +1.5kg of 50% pre47 silver last week. The auction house didn't put the weight, just the quantity and then undervalued the listings, so only unlazy people with a calculator and Google (confirm coin weight) knew it's true value.

It cost £21 a pure ounce inc postage . Nice little bargain, as when I put my away bids in, spot was 24.20ish.

Finally received it today.... Not so much a bargain as it turned out lol

Don't worry, it'll go up again.

[Darr3nG]

22 minutes ago, Earthmetal said:

Don't worry, it'll go up again.

Pinky promise?

[ZRPMs]

1 hour ago, ccfcpaul said:

Gotta laugh, if I didn't, I'd cry!

Bought +1.5kg of 50% pre47 silver last week. The auction house didn't put the weight, just the quantity and then undervalued the listings, so only unlazy people with a calculator and Google (confirm coin weight) knew it's true value.

It cost £21 a pure ounce inc postage . Nice little bargain, as when I put my away bids in, spot was 24.20ish.

Finally received it today.... Not so much a bargain as it turned out lol

58p an ounce profit. How many others can say they've made that much on silver in a few days. I bet you're really 

[Bratnia]

On 23/07/2024 at 09:24, Earthmetal said:

Who/where/how were these values decided? I don't think the LBMA existed back then, so if a 'spot' price existed, who said so?  

This is just LBMA based data, combined with FCIT (global stock Investment Trust) total returns, for end of March years (closer to the fiscal April 5th years when you might rebalance either in the old or new financial year - whichever is the more tax efficient)

The bottom two charts reflect 4% SWR, based on RPI data from the ONS. FCIT data was sourced directly from fandc.com (the trusts website), applied to a yearly rebalanced 50/50 blend of FCIT and gold (but silver instead of gold for the first few years as 1966 to 1971 had Exchange Controls applied to gold i.e. you were only permitted to hold up to four Sovereign coins maximum)

What is 4% SWR? Well in the above case you draw 4% of the initial start date portfolio value for spending that year, and each year thereafter at the start of the year you increase that amount by inflation as the amount drawn at the start of subsequent years, so a regular inflation adjusted income year after year. That runs for 30 years. The bottom chart reflects how much of the inflation adjusted start date portfolio value remained at the end of 30 years after the 4% SWR withdrawals, more often you had more than the start date amount.

What/who is FCIT, well its a business (Investment Trust) - whose business is solely to trade stocks/shares (invest). Listed on the London stock exchange as a regular stock. That's been running since 1868 and nowadays is typically like a global stock index fund, but that is actively managed. https://www.fandc.com/ A alternative to a global stock index fund ETF that might be domiciled in Ireland. Being a UK stock you will get hit with a 0.5% stamp duty overhead as per any other stock purchase. Trustnet is a good web site to read more into Investment Trusts https://www.trustnet.com/factsheets/T/FJ19/f A factor to keep in mind is that Investment Trust can trade a discount or premiums to their net asset value i.e. ... keeping things simple, if the trusts holds a portfolio of £1M of assets (stocks value) and has 1 million shares in issue, so £1/share typical price, it may actually trade at 90p/share, a 10% discount to NAV, or in some cases maybe at a premium to NAV, £1.05 for instance. So in some cases its like buying £1 value of a broad range of stocks/shares for perhaps a 90p price.

[bobski]

Current Price

£21.76

Live Change

0.03% £+0.01

Live high £21.76

 

Live low £21.74

[Bratnia]

On 25/07/2024 at 15:53, Spyder said:

 In March 2011 it went all the way down 38. 

Looking at historic UK cases of high to low GSR transitions and a commonality was that inflation dropped from high levels (such as the 11.5% RPI rate we had at the end of 2022), down by two-thirds or so (to more average levels). Gold remained much the same price, maybe down a little (in nominal terms so lost in real (after inflation) terms), Pound declined a little, silver rose a lot (66% to 100% type amounts), typically over a 5 to 7 year period. GSR around halved.

If that repeats forward time from the end of 2022, so to 2027/2028, then inflation down to sub 4% type levels, gold might be at around £1500/oz as per the end of 2022, recent 85 GSR might be down to 50 or maybe lower, silver prices having risen to £30/oz (up around 42% from recent levels). Present day silver potentially buying 50% to 66% more gold after perhaps 4 years.

Perhaps more a case of a improving economy, more rewards perceived from stocks than gold as inflation declines, a change from large/fast QE and towards slower/progressive QT (economy doing OK/well). Demand for silver as part of general production/manufacturing rising seeings its price rise 50% to 100% whilst gold remains flat (down in real/after-inflation terms after relatively fast/large prior gains). Popularity/retail demand for gold going into decline ... lower rewards after strong/fast gains tending to push away potential buyers towards alternative 'more rewarding' alternatives such as stocks. Maybe a 67/33 stock/silver asset allocation in reflection of that potential 5 year outlook.

[Chronos]

Suppressing Silver Prices Has Been Official U.S. Policy Since 1965:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/07/25/suppressing-silver-prices-has-been-official-us-policy-since-1965-003339

[bobski]

Current Price

£21.83

Live Change

0.06% £+0.01

Live high £21.83

 

Live low £21.81

[Bratnia]

A steep rise of the price relative to the upper Bollinger Band (red line), and BB top (red line)/bottom (green line) widening, can be followed by a sharp reversal of the price down to the lower BB line level. Recent Gold/Silver ratio 'price' and BB lines ...

... may yet still see further continuation of the rise from around 86 levels, maybe even to 100+, but that could then rapidly reverse down to the 70's level. Swap a ounce of gold for 86 ounces of silver, where later 75 ounces of silver buys a ounce of gold, and you end up with 15% more gold than before.

[Stacktastic]

On 28/07/2024 at 17:15, Chronos said:

Suppressing Silver Prices Has Been Official U.S. Policy Since 1965:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/07/25/suppressing-silver-prices-has-been-official-us-policy-since-1965-003339

I have not been paying attention, but it looks like options expiry was a causation, but its looking bearish still, almost certainly the banks intervention as per the above. 

What other factors are affecting silver out of interest? I see bitcoin is up.

Im down on some stupid moves with x3 leverage tech stocks so im out of the market for now. 

Edited July 30 by Stacktastic

[CANV]

they sucked the short term punters in over 30 bucks an ounce.  they all thought they were off to the races.  they got battered and stopped out.    its all around 30 bucks.  we will go again next month. 

[bobski]

Current Price

£22.28

Live Change

0.10% £+0.02

Live high £22.28

 

Live low £22.26

[Bratnia]

Odd morning

But alas no, seems like a glitch. Reminds me to continually leave limit orders at silly buy and sell prices as infrequently they may get traded.

 

Buy Zurich/Sell London arbitrage

[bobski]

Live Silver Price UK in GBP per Ounce

Ag

Current Price

£22.59

Live Change

0.00% £0.00

Live high £22.59

 

Live low £22.59

[MBTPSilver]

It feels like a healthier rise this week for silver. Up 4% rather than the 10% we were seeing before. If BoE cut rates at lunch time I suspect we'll see it jump again though, maybe to £23.

[Bratnia]

1 hour ago, MBTPSilver said:

It feels like a healthier rise this week for silver. Up 4% rather than the 10% we were seeing before. If BoE cut rates at lunch time I suspect we'll see it jump again though, maybe to £23.

Not more a case of the market predicting a 60% chance of rates being cut, and silver (gold) already having priced such a cut in, so gold/silver staying much the same versus a potential fall had the expected rate cut not materialised?

[MBTPSilver]

Yes, the pound fell over the course of the morning, so it seemed markets already priced-in the cut. Surprised, and I think it was perhaps too early to cut, but we'll see what happens at the next meeting in September now.

[Bratnia]

2 hours ago, MBTPSilver said:

Yes, the pound fell over the course of the morning, so it seemed markets already priced-in the cut. Surprised, and I think it was perhaps too early to cut, but we'll see what happens at the next meeting in September now.

Equal numbers voted for leave as-is and cut, Bailey opted for the cut. With house prices having risen 2% in a month, half the workforce (public sector) all getting inflation beating pay rises, I also thought it would have been a hold decision. Does help lower the Pound however, which has been relatively strong which slows price increases (imported foods etc.).

Just dumped my ISA back into cash, was in cash last Thursday intending to have sold in May ... St Ledgers, but bought into FCIT/SSLN 50/50 and a £9K profit in a week (£200K ISA value) gave me itchy fingers. Yet to add this years £20K allowance, so the sand pit is progressively growing to a more decent amount (hopefully quarter of a mill+ come next April).