Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[MBTPSilver]

I'm not sure to be honest. I did see there was further poor growth numbers out of China, which tends to be indicative of a general global slowdown. Less stuff being made means less industrial demand for silver which would have an impact that gold wouldn't see. Otherwise I can only think that silver was still up a lot more than gold (and still is - 31% in 6 months for silver, and 21% for gold), so silver could be considered a little over-bought perhaps and is balancing back out.

Could go sub$30/£23 this evening.

[Earthmetal]

18 hours ago, ccfcpaul said:

Probably gonna get a legthly reply here  - but can someone explain the recent price fluctuations in silver compared to the relative stabler gold price.

No.

[ccfcpaul]

I just won auctions for 50% silver that I put in 3 days ago 🤷🏻‍♀️. Oopsie

[James32]

5 hours ago, ccfcpaul said:

I just won auctions for 50% silver that I put in 3 days ago 🤷🏻‍♀️. Oopsie

Been there done that with gold. Will go back up in no time.

[Earthmetal]

14 hours ago, James32 said:

Been there done that with gold. Will go back up in no time.

Tomorrow night.

[Agaupl]

One thing I never really realised … the Chinese don’t really buy silver, same in India . They buy lots of gold but not silver.  
what will happen when gold is out of reach for the average citizen? Like is happening in Egypt when the Egyptian pound collapsed... they buy silver. Imagine the demand if that happens!

[HerefordBullyun]

7 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

One thing I never really realised … the Chinese don’t really buy silver, same in India . They buy lots of gold but not silver.  
what will happen when gold is out of reach for the average citizen? Like is happening in Egypt when the Egyptian pound collapsed... they buy silver. Imagine the demand if that happens!

They do now. India and china broke all records this years physical accumulation.

[Earthmetal]

30 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

One thing I never really realised … the Chinese don’t really buy silver, same in India . They buy lots of gold but not silver.  
what will happen when gold is out of reach for the average citizen? Like is happening in Egypt when the Egyptian pound collapsed... they buy silver. Imagine the demand if that happens!

I wonder why so high for Germany.

[HerefordBullyun]

Just now, Earthmetal said:

I wonder why so high for Germany.

Lost all their nazi gold to the neutral swiss.

.

[Silverman2U]

50 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

One thing I never really realised … the Chinese don’t really buy silver, same in India . They buy lots of gold but not silver.  
what will happen when gold is out of reach for the average citizen? Like is happening in Egypt when the Egyptian pound collapsed... they buy silver. Imagine the demand if that happens!

If silver has as rare as gold I would agree with you… but it’s not and commonly filtered during the mining of other metals. 

Now platinum, once a good use case for that comes back into play, given it’s more expensive to mine than gold, I would bet on that as a long play.  

Edited July 21 by Silverman2U

[Agaupl]

54 minutes ago, Silverman2U said:

If silver has as rare as gold I would agree with you… but it’s not and commonly filtered during the mining of other metals. 

Now platinum, once a good use case for that comes back into play, given it’s more expensive to mine than gold, I would bet on that as a long play.  

I would agree with the platinum point.. huge deficits and high cost is mining. Platinum also mainly is sourced from Russia and South Africa.. both not producing for different reasons. 
 

but the silver argument I was making wasn’t based on rarity. Most people that own gold measure it in Ozs. If you own silver it’s more likely kgs. So the relative rarity vs gold isn’t the issue if each person owns 80x more. The majority of silver is industrial use, same as platinum, hence small changes can have a big effect (both ways). Investment silver is relatively small fry.. doesn’t affect the price really .. unless you have 2 billion people buying it because gold is now $3000usd plus an oz. 

Edited July 21 by Agaupl

[Agaupl]

1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Lost all their nazi gold to the neutral swiss.

.

Germans buy a huge amount of bullion. Gold and silver. Cultural thing for the collective memory. Seems that the more recently a society when through bad times, then the more good/silver they buy … 

[Agaupl]

1 hour ago, HerefordBullyun said:

They do now. India and china broke all records this years physical accumulation.

For them … but if Chinese demand per capita was half that of the US then there’d be a hug shortage. 
 

Canada has a population of 356 people… and it still is on par with India and China 

[HerefordBullyun]

19 minutes ago, Agaupl said:

Germans buy a huge amount of bullion. Gold and silver. Cultural thing for the collective memory. Seems that the more recently a society when through bad times, then the more good/silver they buy … 

Wermacht times they still teach it in their schools history...

Edited July 21 by HerefordBullyun

[Agaupl]

3 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Wermacht times they still teach it in their schools history...

From 1918 to 1960 they needed gold. You see the same in ex Yugoslavia. From Weimar to Zim, Venezuela and Argentina.  If we didn’t have the usd$ for pegging to since 1945 you see it much more .. people have short memories. 

[Stacktastic]

2 hours ago, Earthmetal said:

I wonder why so high for Germany.

I was thinking that as they started the lockdowns (or one of the initiatives anyway) in Germany as Germans are so compliant.  
If they have no critical thinking then why would they be collecting gold & not buying bonds and stashing toilet paper under thier beds?
As has been suggested they might just like collecting gold, but I wonder if people are buying from Germany and getting it shipped to other countries?? 
Geiger for example, but Germany has a lot of other dealers, as we all used to buy from them before Brexit.  

Edited July 21 by Stacktastic

[PapaLazarou]

Any idea that a return to a gold standard or gold-backed currency will stave off the likelihood of future economic depression and/or stock market crash is little more than ill-educated nonsense.

 

I say this having been a gold-buyer for over forty years, so - much as I would be delighted to see gold spike to unforeseen heights - I am some distance from being without a dog in this fight.

 

The historical facts speak for themselves. To claim that the gold standard is an economic Shangri La is to to overlook the true history of the roaring twenties and to gainsay the real culprits behind the ensuing Great Depression. Although it would be absurd to suggest that there was only one underlying cause, the  machinations of the Fed are largely overlooked, mainly as a result of the whitewashing of the facts by the media. Who has been pulling the media's strings before and since? A rhetorical question.

 

The Federal Reserve - which is neither federal nor owns any reserves - is a privately owned company which serves only itself and, along with other central banks, has the sole aim of total power over its nation's citizens.

 

As I have no wish to write a TLDR explanation, I shall quote Nobel-prize winning economist Milton Friedman:

 

  "The Federal Reserve definitely caused The Great Depression by contracting the amount of currency in circulation by a third from 1929 to 1933".

[PapaLazarou]

2 hours ago, Agaupl said:

Canada has a population of 356 people

'Struth. Trudeau really is so much worse than Stalin.

Edited July 21 by PapaLazarou

[Agaupl]

1 minute ago, PapaLazarou said:

'Struth. Trudeau really is so much worse than Stalin.

And dropping 

[Agaupl]

2 hours ago, Stacktastic said:

I was thinking that as they started the lockdowns (or one of the initiatives anyway) in Germany as Germans are so compliant.  
If they have no critical thinking then why would they be collecting gold & not buying bonds and stashing toilet paper under thier beds?
As has been suggested they might just like collecting gold, but I wonder if people are buying from Germany and getting it shipped to other countries?? 
Geiger for example, but Germany has a lot of other dealers, as we all used to buy from them before Brexit.  

I’m sure a German will be along soon.. but they buy a terrible ton of silver AND gold 

[Agaupl]

1 hour ago, PapaLazarou said:

Any idea that a return to a gold standard or gold-backed currency will stave off the likelihood of future economic depression and/or stock market crash is little more than ill-educated nonsense.

 

I say this having been a gold-buyer for over forty years, so - much as I would be delighted to see gold spike to unforeseen heights - I am some distance from being without a dog in this fight.

 

The historical facts speak for themselves. To claim that the gold standard is an economic Shangri La is to to overlook the true history of the roaring twenties and to gainsay the real culprits behind the ensuing Great Depression. Although it would be absurd to suggest that there was only one underlying cause, the  machinations of the Fed are largely overlooked, mainly as a result of the whitewashing of the facts by the media. Who has been pulling the media's strings before and since? A rhetorical question.

 

The Federal Reserve - which is neither federal nor owns any reserves - is a privately owned company which serves only itself and, along with other central banks, has the sole aim of total power over its nation's citizens.

 

As I have no wish to write a TLDR explanation, I shall quote Nobel-prize winning economist Milton Friedman:

 

  "The Federal Reserve definitely caused The Great Depression by contracting the amount of currency in circulation by a third from 1929 to 1933".

That’s an American centric view though. .. and America has more to lose than anyine else in a gold standard. Not that I think one is practical today due to the huge debts countries have run up. But I think one will happen after a huge huge world changing shock. Just like how the current Bretton woods system started before it was cancelled by Nixon 

[Chronos]

7 hours ago, Agaupl said:

Canada has a population of 356 people …

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/

[Silverman2U]

6 hours ago, Agaupl said:

That’s an American centric view though. .. and America has more to lose than anyine else in a gold standard. Not that I think one is practical today due to the huge debts countries have run up. But I think one will happen after a huge huge world changing shock. Just like how the current Bretton woods system started before it was cancelled by Nixon 

Will it take the end of WW3 to eventually collapse the system?  I think before we may see a start to a new world currency… I think the formation of a national digital currency maybe just the next domino in the sequence to control the inevitable collapse… it’s all about the “haves” and “have nots”. 

It’s when the masses finally wake up and realise they are working to exist when others they know/see next door in their sphere have everything. 

The fact there was an uproar from Tech. Companies that France considered a 3% tax charge on Facebook (which I believe pays around 1% along with the other big 3) and have the power to change the world through their movements. Society has not woken up. 

OR the fact that the US federal reserve is not seen as the ultimate Ponzi scheme (because it’s a “government backed loan” … that can’t be repaid). It’s like the emperor’s new clothes… Russia 🇷🇺 just maybe the little boy shouting “the emperor is naked!”  … I think it will take a lot more than that personally.

All empires collapse, Greeks, Egypt, Rome, Spanish, Dutch, and in more recently at the turn of the 20th Century the English. American is next… question is when. Hopefully 🤞 not in the next 100 years

Edited July 21 by Silverman2U

[DisplayName]

On 21/07/2024 at 17:07, Chronos said:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/canada-population/

This is what Big Population wants you to believe. Look around people! Have ye seen more than 356 confirmed Canadians at once? I think not.

Considering to buy an extra 10g of Perth Mint gold before Kamala gets assassinated by the Clintons. 

[Bratnia]

Previously I had no interest in silver, however recently my interest has been piqued. Some monitor the gold/silver ratio and rotate according to changes in that, but that requires picking numbers for whatever gold/silver ratio to switch between the two. As a more general approach I opted to simply use the historic average of yearly gold/silver ratio levels, measured at each year end, along with measuring the standard deviation in those yearly values. I then set a sell silver to buy gold when the gold/silver ratio declined to/below that average, or rotate from gold into silver if the gold/silver ratio had risen to/above the average + 0.5 standard deviations. I used yearly data back from 1915 in order to establish a reasonable data set for the average and standard deviation figures, and then ran that forward from the start of 1970 (to the end of 2023). Each year that average and standard deviation changes, as more years/data is added, but with more data so the figures tend to somewhat settle, and the more recent (Dec 2023) values are close to a 60 (59.4) average gold/silver ratio, with a 22.2 standard deviation (so 59.4 + ( 0.5 x 22.2 ) = 70.6 upper level at which gold is sold to buy silver).

At the start of 2015 that rotated into silver, and to the end of 2023 silver has lagged gold, so some way yet off seeing another rotation from silver into gold. Rounding to 60 and 70 values what basically occurs is that you buy a ounce of gold with 60 ounces of silver and hold that until a ounce of gold buys 70 ounces of silver, so you end up with 10 ounces more of silver, 70 / 60 = 16.7% more ounces of silver than before.

More broadly and since 1970 that's yielded modestly better rewards than just holding gold or silver alone, never changing. Depending upon how you measure results of the order 3% to 5%/year more rewarding.

I've just measured year end based results, so in some cases the gold/silver ratio might have spiked significantly through a 'change (swap)' value. Perhaps no harm in letting things run for a while like that rather than checking daily for more precise swap outs at the indicated average or average + 0.5 stdev values.

Can take a while before things come-good. For instance the 2015 rotation into silver is still 'lagging', so to the end of 2023 you'd have been better off in gold since 2015, but at some point that will 'correct' itself, and what matters most is the prices/levels you actually buy/sell (swap) at, interim measures are just on-paper figures.

Another factor is that if you periodically sell all of your gold (or silver) to buy silver (gold) then you want exposure via a means that is relatively quick and low cost to buy/sell gold (silver) through. Something like BullionVault or ETF's .. etc. Which moves otherwise advisable in-hand physical gold (silver) into other counter-party risk factors (not in-hand). If that was undesired as likely it may be then you might utilise the likes of rolled Futures (or Options) https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/e-micro-gold.quotes.html