Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[jultorsk]

 

[silversky]

2 minutes ago, PapaLazarou said:

JD Vance at 240/1 is now worth a punt.

Unlikely in my view, but I viewed a second attempt as unlikely too, so perhaps I should add a couple quid on Vance just to lay off the risk on my bet.

[silversky]

1 minute ago, jultorsk said:

 

I thought you were going to post a blue haired land whale....  hehehe

[BLOOMMAN101]

Just now, silversky said:

Unlikely in my view, but I viewed a second attempt as unlikely too, so perhaps I should add a couple quid on Vance just to lay off the risk on my bet.

I didn't or 3rd       I can only see100/1 for Vance on Paddy Power

[PapaLazarou]

5 minutes ago, silversky said:

Unlikely in my view

Mine too, but nor 240/1 unlikely.

Even if only as an excellent trading opportunity. Use Betfair.

Edited Sunday at 21:51 by PapaLazarou

[BLOOMMAN101]

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election/winner

[CDH]

I saw a second attempt as very likely, unfortunately. And I still wouldn't rule out more, especially the way the US press are trying to portray him as 'a threat to democracy', so I don't know that this will move the market much. An actual assassination, however, would trigger huge political instability for years, IMO, (especially if Harris then went on to win) and so cause gold to rise a lot further.

[jultorsk]

 

[jultorsk]

25 minutes ago, silversky said:

I thought you were going to post a blue haired land whale....  hehehe

Well since you asked about hair... 

 

[silversky]

Here are the odds expressed in digital format on the betfair exchange.  (other bookies are available)

A couple of things to notice... JD Vance has odds which express him as being far more likely (not likely at all) to win the election than Tim Waltz, if something were to happen to either of their lead candidates.  Basically this means that the betting public don't consider that Kamala has a threat to her life, and or that if she did drop out for any reason then Waltz is un liked and might not even be the standby candidate.  Vance would certainly be supported by Trump supporters.  I don't think the same is true of Waltz.  Also, note that Biden is at 1000 which means that the public believes that Biden is out of the running no matter what happens.  Obama and Hillary are both still in the running (in the minds of the betting public) if anything were to put Kamala out of the race.

Edit:  Trump was up at 2.18 earlier this afternoon.  I bought some at that price some hours before the attempt and the price fell before the attempt.  (Lower price means the gamblers think he has more chance of winning.  2.0 is even odds)

Edited Sunday at 22:29 by silversky

[silversky]

4 minutes ago, jultorsk said:

Well since you asked about hair... 

 

  No way.  Is this a simulation???

[treetop1280]

3 minutes ago, silversky said:

  No way.  Is this a simulation???

Albert steptoe???

[silversky]

29 minutes ago, PapaLazarou said:

Mine too, but nor 240/1 unlikely.

Even if only as an excellent trading opportunity.

The chance that some loony succeeds now is extremely unlikely IMO.  As the weeks pass by, this ticket will move towards worthless so I don't think it will be an excellent trading position.  It won't be a tradable by election day.  Possibly it's not even a tradable position today depending on the rules.  I don't think the states can change the names on the ballots, so it might even be ruled that a candidate would be considered to have won if the public vote for him even though he was deceased.  I don't know.  Have to read the small print on bookies tickets very carefully.

[BLOOMMAN101]

[jultorsk]

50 minutes ago, BLOOMMAN101 said:

There's a sense of chaos in the USA imo. Up at the open.

[dicker]

At 1968 (ATH) gold holding up better than I thought.  

[flyingveepixie]

8 hours ago, CDH said:

I saw a second attempt as very likely, unfortunately. And I still wouldn't rule out more, especially the way the US press are trying to portray him as 'a threat to democracy', so I don't know that this will move the market much. An actual assassination, however, would trigger huge political instability for years, IMO, (especially if Harris then went on to win) and so cause gold to rise a lot further.

I wouldn't rule out more attempts either. The US establishment is running out of options for stopping him.

As I see it it has to be one of three possibilities

1. A rigged election (been done before - probably wont work a second time)

2. Start WWIII   - Definite possibility.

3. A successful assassination using a useful idiot as a patsy. 

The implications of a successful assassination attempt however are somewhat worrying as so many in the Trump camp - probably all of them in fact - would see it as a deliberate move by his opponents - which it very possibly would be - and the consequences of that could not only destroy the US in civil war but pull the rest of us into it too.

Gold holding well at £1966.81

Edited Monday at 06:26 by flyingveepixie

[Orpster]

1 hour ago, dicker said:

At 1968 (ATH) gold holding up better than I thought.  

Same, I assumed a slight smackdown on opening and overnight

[Petra]

Gold …. up, up and away…. to the moon🤔on the way to mars…😮😮🤔👀

[GoldenGriffin]

What strategy would leaders take when they know their country is very likely to go to war and the war physically taking place in that country?

Start moving the county's wealth out of the way...

Secretly sell or move their gold out of the country?

Move the very wealthy people (the recent plumber on the news from the UK) out of that country by introducing new higher tax rules and moving that wealth to safety without them knowing the real reason behind the hike in tax?

Does anyone remember the emergency test message that was sent to all UK smartphones a few years ago, driven by the leaders?

Seriously, are we gearing up for war and I mean to be physically involved and see it unfold from within the country we live?

I really hope we don't.

That would make the gold coil spring back further and gold to skyrocket.

Gold pulling back slightly at £1,960.

Edited Monday at 18:04 by GoldenGriffin
Remove blabber

[FriedrichVonHayek]

18 minutes ago, GoldenGriffin said:

What strategy would leaders take when they know their country is very likely to go to war?

Start moving the county's wealth out of the way...

Secretly sell (move) their gold out of the country? 

Move the very wealthy people (the plumber from the UK) but more importantly, their wealth out of that country by introducing new tax rules to safeguard that wealth but make them believe it was their decision based on new changes in tax rules but in reality it was a strategic move to keep it covert and 'low key' driven by leaders. 

Does anyone remember the emergency message that was sent to all smartphones a few years ago, driven by the leaders?

Seriously, are we gearing up for war and I mean to be physically involved and see it unfold from within the country we live?

I really hope we don't.

That would make the gold coil spring back further and gold to skyrocket.

Gold pulling back slightly at £1,960.

Unless all sides agree not to use Nuclear weapons it's difficult to see how WW3 could happen without mutual assured destruction.

I can only see a continuation of the current hybrid War.

Also Western nations seem regard large sections of their own populations with contempt which seems an odd way to get people to fight against Russia or China.

Personally I'm more concerned about Starmer than Putin.

 

[KevjustKev]

US China war? Nah, Sealion had a better chance than China invading Taiwan

[BLOOMMAN101]

[PapaLazarou]

J D Vance's odds of winning the US election have fallen by over a third in less than 24 hours - from 240/1 to 150/1.

Edited Monday at 19:29 by PapaLazarou

[Chronos]

What Happens If The Fed Cuts 50Bps ... And What If It Doesn't: All You Need To Know:

https://archive.is/rzWlL