Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Dom]

Does this cut mean the BoE has admitted defeat? I.e they're between a rock and a hard place: raise interest rates and the government goes bust as it can't afford it's debt repayments or lower rates and let money printer go brrrrrrrr? Somebody with more knowledge please enlighten moi. 

[James32]

15 minutes ago, KRO said:

Got married?
potato famine?
Easter holiday in Dublin?

My birth year. 

[Orpster]

Finally, once past 1886 that I actually have

[modofantasma]

2 minutes ago, Orpster said:

Finally, once past 1886 that I actually have

Lovely.

Thought you might have been stumped for a bit 🤣

[Paul]

32 minutes ago, Dom said:

Does this cut mean the BoE has admitted defeat? I.e they're between a rock and a hard place: raise interest rates and the government goes bust as it can't afford it's debt repayments or lower rates and let money printer go brrrrrrrr? Somebody with more knowledge please enlighten moi. 

Keep calm and carry on stacking 

[Paul]

When gold hits £2,024 we are knackered for posting the ongoing sovereign year photos  

+£112/years to go  

[silvergaga]

Shouldn't take more than 5 weeks methinks again.

[MBTPSilver]

Only $24 off the USD intra-day high. About £38 to go for GBP.

[James32]

19 minutes ago, Paul said:

When gold hits £2,024 we are knackered for posting the ongoing sovereign year photos  

+£112/years to go  

Na, 2025 will be out by then

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

40 minutes ago, Dom said:

Does this cut mean the BoE has admitted defeat? I.e they're between a rock and a hard place: raise interest rates and the government goes bust as it can't afford it's debt repayments or lower rates and let money printer go brrrrrrrr? Somebody with more knowledge please enlighten moi. 

It went exactly as expected. The 2 hawks voted no cuts, the 2 doves voted cut, the swing voters made up the rest and in the end the Governor got the deciding vote to make it 5-4 in favour of a cut

The language being used by some is a "hawkish cut" meaning while they did cut, they aren't going to cut as fast or as deep as the Fed/other CBs. The closeness of the vote reflects this. It might be one cut and hold for the rest of 2024 or they might cut again on 19th September. The Governor stated there is no timetable for further cuts, they will wait and see.

It's all BS, purely political, as there is insufficient grounds for the BoE to cut according to their OWN criteria - i.e. they had to see 2+ consecutive months of deflation (like -0.1% inflation) before they cut - several inflation measures are still at or above their 2% target.

Annual Core Inflation is at 3.5% (ONS). The CPI services is sitting at 5.7% (ONS). The CPI remained at 2%. The CPIH (BoE) is 2.8% and was +0.2% in June, meaning the BoE did not get their consecutive months of deflation or metrics within target (<2%) before they chose to cut. Further, as these metrics have been trending well above target for several consecutive quarters, there was no economic basis for this cut. The BoE took a risk by starting their easing cycle before the Fed. If the Fed doesn't cut in September then the BoE and GBP are going to experience mechanical pressures (depreciation vs USD, gold is more expensive in GBP)

They did it for the newly elected Labour government so they can crow about a miniscule reduction in borrowing costs. Several leftist publications in the UK, newspapers and so forth, have been calling for the Governor's head due to a lack of cuts. In the end the BoE bowed to outside pressure of laymen and vested interests rather than holding true to their own principles and economic prudency. The Governor described it as "a cautious cut" with no timetable set for further cuts, saying they needed to be patient and ensure inflation remained "low" by not cutting too deep or too fast

I find their arguments incongruent - why should the Governor be "cautious" and doing "hawkish cuts" when there remains a danger that inflation will come roaring back? If inflation starts ticking up again, the same people who were baying for blood over no cuts, are going to blame the Governor and BoE for cutting too quickly 🤷‍♂️

[ArgentSmith]

1 hour ago, Orpster said:

Finally, once past 1886 that I actually have

Pics of King Charles III sovs before you know it!

[BLOOMMAN101]

[theman73]

10 minutes ago, BLOOMMAN101 said:

 

 

[9x883]

Peasant suppers or here?

[BLOOMMAN101]

9 minutes ago, theman73 said:

 

 

Americanos - Blue Jeans and Chinos

[bobski]

8 hours ago, James32 said:

£1950 -£510-£210

You’re not far off what I was thinking mate

[Paul]

☝️↗️📈🚀🎖️

[bobski]

 

[Dankanugget]

1 hour ago, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

It went exactly as expected. The 2 hawks voted no cuts, the 2 doves voted cut, the swing voters made up the rest and in the end the Governor got the deciding vote to make it 5-4 in favour of a cut

The language being used by some is a "hawkish cut" meaning while they did cut, they aren't going to cut as fast or as deep as the Fed/other CBs. The closeness of the vote reflects this. It might be one cut and hold for the rest of 2024 or they might cut again on 19th September. The Governor stated there is no timetable for further cuts, they will wait and see.

It's all BS, purely political, as there is insufficient grounds for the BoE to cut according to their OWN criteria - i.e. they had to see 2+ consecutive months of deflation (like -0.1% inflation) before they cut - several inflation measures are still at or above their 2% target.

Annual Core Inflation is at 3.5% (ONS). The CPI services is sitting at 5.7% (ONS). The CPI remained at 2%. The CPIH (BoE) is 2.8% and was +0.2% in June, meaning the BoE did not get their consecutive months of deflation or metrics within target (<2%) before they chose to cut. Further, as these metrics have been trending well above target for several consecutive quarters, there was no economic basis for this cut. The BoE took a risk by starting their easing cycle before the Fed. If the Fed doesn't cut in September then the BoE and GBP are going to experience mechanical pressures (depreciation vs USD, gold is more expensive in GBP)

They did it for the newly elected Labour government so they can crow about a miniscule reduction in borrowing costs. Several leftist publications in the UK, newspapers and so forth, have been calling for the Governor's head due to a lack of cuts. In the end the BoE bowed to outside pressure of laymen and vested interests rather than holding true to their own principles and economic prudency. The Governor described it as "a cautious cut" with no timetable set for further cuts, saying they needed to be patient and ensure inflation remained "low" by not cutting too deep or too fast

I find their arguments incongruent - why should the Governor be "cautious" and doing "hawkish cuts" when there remains a danger that inflation will come roaring back? If inflation starts ticking up again, the same people who were baying for blood over no cuts, are going to blame the Governor and BoE for cutting too quickly 🤷‍♂️

To to buy more before the stampede?

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

10 minutes ago, Dankanugget said:

To to buy more before the stampede?

What do you mean, buy more gold? I think we should try and buy the dips as and when they come as part of our DCA. Gold is currently trading near the top of its expected range for August ($2280 - $2450 from CPM), currently $2246.

Gold needs to close weekly above the ATH and then we'll see some volatility. If it closes above the ATH in August, we might see a stabilisation or small correction. It could of course take off given the right monetary conditions and renewed intensity of global conflicts.

If it closes above the ATH in September, I think we're off to the races. Many major banks, analysts and gold bugs are predicting appreciation from here until the year end. These are moving goalposts as the major banks keep getting it wrong, but JPM currently have it at $2500+ by year end. Various others like APMEX are going for $2600+, while several major investment houses are going for wide ranges of $2500-3000+. Some are more circumspect like BoA and Citi, who have gold finishing the year roughly where it is now in the $2400 range. Make of that what you will

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

From our POV the movements in FX - GBP/USD and GBP/Euro - could be just as significant as the actual price movements of gold, which is measured in USD. It's all very uncertain and volatile but hey, risk = reward and if buying gold was a slam dunk, it wouldn't be capable of providing strong returns

I would be confident with my own money to buy any major dips and if not, I'll tick along with DCA. Nobody can time the markets and none of us have a crystal ball 🤷‍♂️. If you check I did say here I was planning on buying more heavily in July/August in expectation of appreciation from Sept onwards. I had a year end price target of $2800. 

For example at present the daily price of gold in USD has risen by 0.74% while it's risen 1.40% in GBP - i.e. FX has been as important as the actual gold price, with GBP down 0.82% vs USD. 

Edited August 1 by HonestMoneyGoldSilver

[Dankanugget]

Many thanks for your explanation. I've done ok so far by listening but wanted to hear opinion on this. 

As you say many moving platforms to affect the price. With unrest and conflict escalating I'm wondering if I should do more as there's always a non planed or thought out event.

Maybe I've done enough but I'm not sure how safe the banks really are.

 

Plan for a thousand years etc...but time is speeding up.

 

Edited August 1 by Dankanugget

[HonestMoneyGoldSilver]

On 28/10/2023 at 16:48, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Agreed although you may be a quarter or two early. I don't want to be a gold pumper/pusher, but I do genuinely fear if we break and hold above the ATH (USD) that there is a distinct possibility we go +12.5% to $2300+ and then + 37.5% to $2800+ at a much faster rate than I can afford to stack gold. For balance there is still a risk we pull back to $1700 or $1615 but the majority of analysts are predicting we go in the opposite direction towards $3000 if we break and hold above the ATH (or $2100). My predictions on TSF (dating back to June and before) are for $2100 by Christmas. Goldman Sachs, twats that they are, are predicting gold closes at $2108 in 2023

This aged well

On 01/04/2024 at 17:22, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

Nah there's strong fundamentals to push gold to $2300+ easily and then $2800+ when (if) the central banks start cutting rates

Gold has a lot of legs, it should already be comfortably > $3000 if it kept up with inflation-adjusted highs from the 1980s

Our dip if we get one will be May-early September. If there's no dip in that period then gold really is headed to the moon

 

On 20/04/2024 at 15:18, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

There's a fair bit of resistance above the current level and towards $2480 but every new nominal ATH is a new resistance point and gold has been smashing resistance for fun lately

The race is between a retrace to the low $2300s and $2500, with $2500 being base camp towards $2800

I like being fearful of $2800 rather than wishing for it. As is usually the case the thing I don't want to happen appears the most likely so $2800 it is

I keep saying if we hit those levels over the summer months then gold is going to airmail peasants like me. It's terrible for the ordinary man but that seems to be the way of things this century. Those who bought fractional at lowish spot and low premiums could be laughing this time next year

 

 

On 13/05/2024 at 20:44, HonestMoneyGoldSilver said:

If the price stays above $2300/£1832 then it's all golden. It's not that long ago we were excited about $2000/oz being the new floor. We're building a new floor around $2300. If the price stays above $2300 until after the 3rd June, that will add a lot of weight to a $2300 floor. We want to stay around $2300 for the rest of the summer and then add 20%+ between September - December 2024 to approach $2800. It's the end of 2024 and all throughout 2025 that the real game begins

My consistent predictions for year end 2024 have been $2800. We'll see how that goes. Last year I did pretty well with the predictions and up until now things have played out pretty much as I expected. I'm cautious about being perceived as a gold pumper but we live and die by our word, right? $2800 by Christmas.

[Dankanugget]

3 minutes ago, Dankanugget said:

Many thanks for your explanation. I've done ok so far by listening but wanted to hear opinion on this. 

As you say many moving platforms to affect the price. With unrest and conflict escalating I'm wondering if I should do more as there's always a non planed or thought out event.

Maybe I've done enough but I'm not sure how safe the banks really are.

 

Plan for a thousand years etc...but time is speeding up.

 

I was told to position myself APX three years ago which I have done 

 

[Dankanugget]

Thanks for your extensive replies.

D