Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[bobski]

1 hour ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

Dewalt tools and gold

My spirit animal

[CDH]

24 minutes ago, burns718 said:

Can someone please explain to me in layman's term what/why/how the fed rate cut affects good price please? 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100915/effect-fed-fund-rate-hikes-gold.asp

[Bratnia]

1 hour ago, burns718 said:

Can someone please explain to me in layman's term what/why/how the fed rate cut affects good price please? 

If down a high street there's one bank of America paying 5% interest and another bank of Canada paying 4.5% and bank of America cut their rate to 4.5% whereas bank of Canada raise theirs to 5% then the natural tendency is that depositors will withdraw money out of bank of America to deposit in bank of Canada i.e. American dollars will be sold to buy Canadian dollars, the US dollar weakening means it takes more US dollars to buy a ounce of gold. As the Canadian dollar relatively strengthens so it takes fewer Canadian dollars to buy a ounce of gold. It's far more complex however as Canada in raising its interest rates may be a reflection of perceived or actual increased risks, has to compensate more to attract capital, some/many might be accepting to being paid less interest for the lower risk involved elsewhere. In times of global fear, wars, Covid ...etc. investors are attracted to relative safety such as the US dollar and/or gold.

In Turkey/Argentina you can get 50%/40% interest https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/interest-rate but that is indicative that there's a very high chance that you might not even get your money back. Interest rates rose in reflection of rising risks/issues, the price of gold in their respective currencies also rose.

Edited July 16 by Bratnia

[HerefordBullyun]

2 hours ago, James32 said:

So basically I can go as hard as I like for 3 weeks then must start busking. 

Why would we want to hear you singing about mouldy spuds you fire out ya fat irish spotty botty...

[Bratnia]

12 hours ago, HerefordBullyun said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-tv-threatens-european-capitals-long-range-missiles

This will make gold go up. But you wont be alive to spend it.

Herein lies the irony

Quote

The major development had prompted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov to respond: "Europe is a target for our missiles, our country is a target for U.S. missiles in Europe." He explained further, "We have enough capacity to contain these missiles but the potential victims are the capitals of these countries."

... Russians believing they might "win" such a assured mutual destruction war. Such weaponry have evolved massively since the 1960's evolution of nuclear missiles. Sadly it takes just one idiot to unleash a global extinction event. The price of gold however will tend to rise/fall in reflection of the perceived rise/fall in the risk of such potential madness.

[KRO]

15 hours ago, James32 said:

So basically I can go as hard as I like for 3 weeks then must start busking. 

Yes I can see that career working out really well
In the city centre as a random ejit, dressed in a Star Wars outfit 
casually passes by and tosses an incendiary device into your hat😀

[Bratnia]

14 hours ago, burns718 said:

Can someone please explain to me in layman's term what/why/how the fed rate cut affects good price please? 

Covid and wars have seen much flight into US Dollars, for relative safety. Since around mid/late 2022 however and much of the inflow has turned, both US stocks and gold are up since then, indicative to a weakening Dollar - outflow of 'profit taking' to seek 'better value' elsewhere as 'fear' subsides. The more those stock and gold trends persist the greater the temptation to profit take/move capital elsewhere, even more so given the potential of good-value in other markets/countries.

Think of 50/50 US$ invested in US stocks, and gold. Three exposure factors each with 50% loading/weight. Simple binary maths for each of those three factors, 1 being up, 0 being down, has possible 8 combinations, 000, 001, 010, 011, 100, 101, 110, 111. More often, 75% of cases will see one of those three factors having moved opposite to the others. All three up, or all three down only has 25% probability. When all three of US$, US stocks, gold are all up, or down, that's more of a exception and typically that's 'corrected' relatively quickly by one of those moving quickly/big in the opposite direction.

What might drive gold to rise in US$ terms could see the opposite in other currencies such as Pounds. As capital flows out of the US to elsewhere so the Dollar weakens, gold is inclined to rise in $'s. As capital flows into the UK so the Pound strengthens and the price of gold in Pounds might decline.

For the big boys club of investors the FX markets are the focus. Individual stock/bond markets are just small elements. The FX market churns the equivalent of major stocks markets value amounts every day. A neutral FX stance might be to hold thirds each Pounds, US Dollars, gold, all in hand and that might generally be expected to lose around 2%/year of purchase power. Drop perhaps US$ into US stocks and if that third earns 6% nominal then that's 2% of the whole = offsets inflationary loss. Or other combinations, perhaps US$ in US treasury bills, Pounds in UK stocks ... whatever. As might the weightings to each of Pounds/Dollars/Gold be periodically adjusted up or down as 'better value' is perceived. That's all dynamic/variable such that any correlations that might seem evident such as gold in $ rising as US interests rates are lowered ... is just transition, consistent perhaps only for a while before things change. Shouldn't be consistently assumed/relied upon as there are many other variable factors involved.

[Bratnia]

16 hours ago, James32 said:

So basically I can go as hard as I like for 3 weeks then must start busking. 

In Dublin's fair city,
Where the girls are so pretty,
I first set my eyes on James 32,
As he wheeled his wheel-barrow,
Through streets broad and narrow,
Crying, "Sovs and Brits, to buy or sell oh!"
"Buy or sell, oh,
buy or sell, oh,"
Crying "Sovs and Brits, buy or sell oh".

He was a gold trader
But sure 'twas no wonder
For so were his father and mother before
And they each wheel'd their barrow
Through streets broad and narrow
Crying "Sovs and Brits to buy or sell oh!"

[chorus]

[Bratnia]

11 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

In Dublin's fair city,
Where the girls are so pretty,
I first set my eyes on James 32,
As he wheeled his wheel-barrow,
Through streets broad and narrow,
Crying, "Sovs and Brits, to buy or sell oh!"
"Buy or sell, oh,
buy or sell, oh,"
Crying "Sovs and Brits, buy or sell oh".

He was a gold trader
But sure 'twas no wonder
For so were his father and mother before
And they each wheel'd their barrow
Through streets broad and narrow
Crying "Sovs and Brits to buy or sell oh!"

[chorus]

Don't get stung (Sting'd) by promises of fields of gold. Refined and it may just be beer.

 

[Paul]

It's on the slide, it'll be $400oz any day now, wonger was right 

[Thelonerangershorse]

You'd need to check the $ price,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c80e9k4wegno

 

[Coverte]

I rate Grant Williams highly personally ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Chronos]

Gold Keeps Rising No Matter What Powell Says:

https://www.birchgold.com/blog/news/gold-price-rising/

[bobski]

Current Price

£1,894.16

Live Change

0.10% £+1.89

Live high £1,894.54

 

Live low £1,892.25

[Bratnia]

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/e-micro-gold.quotes.html

https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=XAU&To=USD

https://www.bullionvault.co.uk/order-board.do

 

Edited July 18 by Bratnia

[MBTPSilver]

Back above £1,900 this morning, and gold did briefly set a new US record yesterday afternoon of $2,484.04. $2,500 this week will be tough but it's possible.

[BLOOMMAN101]

[Paul]

15 hours ago, Paul said:

It's on the slide, it'll be $400oz any day now, wonger was right 

 

2 minutes ago, MBTPSilver said:

Back above £1,900 this morning, and gold did briefly set a new US record yesterday afternoon of $2,484.04. $2,500 this week will be tough but it's possible.

£2000oz soon, any day now, I've no doubt 

[Bratnia]

2024 so far has been a year of (priced in USD) US stocks up, gold up, Dollar down (GBP up)

At recent $1.30 USD for each £ how much further might that dollar weakening run? The dollar was high anyway, Covid/Ukraine and now that's been topped with Russian sanctions - lock out of Russian asset to their USD that has had many/most other central banks re-adjusting to be less concentrated into USD (instead opting to hold more gold/other currencies).

For Americans it could be a continuation for the second half of the year seeing gold up, stocks up, dollar down (cost of imports rising), and a directional drive towards more domestic production (US isolation). American retirees stock/gold portfolios rising more than enough to offset higher inflation. For others however, such as us Brits ??? Could be the Pound strengthens further at a faster rate than the increase in stock and gold prices (in Pounds). Even holding cash (Pounds) earning 5% interest from now (1.30 USD per GBP) for a year ... when that may have risen to 1.50 USD per GBP could be a 20% gain in terms of how many more USD that might then buy.

You can get 5.25% from some 1 year fixed rate bonds at present https://moneyfactscompare.co.uk/savings-accounts/1-year-fixed-rate-bonds/ if the Pound does rise to $1.50 over that period whether gold (in Pounds) had risen 20%+ over the same period (£2280/ounce) ???

Perhaps reasonable to at least allocate some to 'cash'. Thirds each stocks/gold/cash and just accept what's given. One of the three will prove to be the best, another the worst, more often where the gains from the best negates and more the worst to leave you 'up' overall.

Edited July 18 by Bratnia

[Bratnia]

18 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

You can get 5.25% from some 1 year fixed rate bonds at present https://moneyfactscompare.co.uk/savings-accounts/1-year-fixed-rate-bonds/ if the Pound does rise to $1.50 over that period whether gold (in Pounds) had risen 20%+ over the same period (£2280/ounce) ???

Perhaps reasonable to at least allocate some to 'cash'. Thirds each stocks/gold/cash and just accept what's given. One of the three will prove to be the best, another the worst, more often where the gains from the best negates and more the worst to leave you 'up' overall.

For a stocks and shares ISA, Gilts https://www.yieldgimp.com/gilt-yields TN25 https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/TN25/united-kingdom/company-page is recently priced to a 4.24% redemption yield (31st Jan 2025), which is the equivalent worth of 6.89% to a higher rate taxpayer, that otherwise would have paid 40% tax on interest. Part of that return is via capital gain, price rising from the recent 97.92 price to its maturity 100.0 price .... and for Gilts capital gains/price appreciation are exempt from tax.

[Bratnia]

Over the last three years trading/rotating at 80 and 90 gold/silver ratio levels would have achieved three such rotations i.e. when you can buy a ounce of gold with 80 ounces of silver then rotate into gold. When that ounce of gold buys 90 ounces of silver rotate back into silver. Each full rotation yielding a 12.5% increase, so with three rotations over three years = 12.5%/year. Or a 42% increase if compounded thrice.

The more recent rotation being into gold, awaiting for when the gold/silver ratio may again hit 90. At 1900/oz gold and 23/oz silver = 82.6, so still some way to go yet

[Thelonerangershorse]

£1871.36

Is gold tanking again, or is it the pound pushing up further against the dollar ?

[davejones]

Theirs an international windows IT crash reported- interested to see how it unfolds - if my computer updates the gold price!

[9x883]

Smackdown Friday is upon us

[HerefordBullyun]

8 minutes ago, 9x883 said:

Smackdown Friday is upon us

don't be so sure there's a black swan event happening. Ive just had this from work

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cnk4jdwp49et

lots of places getting smack down if you cant see this  then your an IT bell end lol

 

Edited July 19 by HerefordBullyun