Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[theman73]

9 minutes ago, James32 said:

£1901 yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

What's next? Adrenaline has worn off.

£1950 pretty please, you know, big family low wage

[gji25]

41 minutes ago, James32 said:

£1901 yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

What's next? Adrenaline has worn off.

 

[Paul]

Is it not £2000oz yet ?

I'm bored it being stuck at £1900 for like . . . .  ' EVER ! ' 

[BLOOMMAN101]

[BLOOMMAN101]

4HR  £ CHART

 

 

Cough triple top cough cough I'll get my coat 

[BLOOMMAN101]

4hr $ chart

[bobski]

[AuricGoldfinger]

15 minutes ago, bobski said:

That a graph of the gold price or the inside of my pants?

Trick question.

Its both!

[gji25]

1 hour ago, BLOOMMAN101 said:

But there wont be a rate cut

[HerefordBullyun]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-tv-threatens-european-capitals-long-range-missiles

This will make gold go up. But you wont be alive to spend it.

[Charliemouse]

5 hours ago, SovereignBull said:

We breaking 1900 this week?

Yes.

[treetop1280]

3 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-tv-threatens-european-capitals-long-range-missiles

This will make gold go up. But you wont be alive to spend it.

3 bombs to wipe out the country???? “ reasons to be cheerful 1,2,3, 😀👍

[bobski]

Live Gold Price

Au

Current Price

£1,902.50

Live Change

-0.01% £-0.16

Live high £1,903.29

 

Live low £1,90

[GoldDiggerDave]

Can you buy and hold enough to make a real meaningful difference without it going to 50k per oz? 
 

just asking a question.    Gold at 1.9k is what? 50% of a families monthly outgoing you still need to be holding a boat load. 
 

[Darr3nG]

16 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

Can you buy and hold enough to make a real meaningful difference without it going to 50k per oz? 
 

just asking a question.    Gold at 1.9k is what? 50% of a families monthly outgoing you still need to be holding a boat load. 
 

Monthly Expenses		Duration of Crisis
GBP £	Gold Ozt*	6 months	1 Year	18 Months	2 Years	3 Years
£500.00	0.26	1.6	3.2	4.7	6.3	9.5
£1,000.00	0.53	3.2	6.3	9.5	12.6	18.9
£2,000.00	1.05	6.3	12.6	18.9	25.3	37.9
£3,000.00	1.58	9.5	18.9	28.4	37.9	56.8
£4,000.00	2.11	12.6	25.3	37.9	50.5	75.8
£5,000.00	2.63	15.8	31.6	47.4	63.2	94.7
£6,000.00	3.16	18.9	37.9	56.8	75.8	113.7
£10,000.00	5.26	31.6	63.2	94.7	126.3	189.5
£15,000.00	7.89	47.4	94.7	142.1	189.5	284.2
£20,000.00	10.53	63.2	126.3	189.5	252.6	378.9
*based on 1ozt gold round from TSF:			£1,900.00

[Bratnia]

7 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

Can you buy and hold enough to make a real meaningful difference without it going to 50k per oz? 
 

just asking a question.    Gold at 1.9k is what? 50% of a families monthly outgoing you still need to be holding a boat load. 

Conventional advice is to have accumulated 25 times your expected yearly spending in savings to cover a 30 year retirement period, so based on your £3.8K/month = £45.6K/year family spending rate = £1.14M wealth/savings. If you both have £10K/year in pension incomes then that reduces to £640K in savings. At retirement draw 4% of the start date portfolio value as income, uplifting that amount each year by inflation as subsequent years withdrawals (so your income rises with inflation).

If that is invested in 50/50 US stock total return accumulation fund and gold coins then you might spend using your credit card and each month sell some of either stocks or gold, whichever is the higher value at the time, to pay off the months credit card bill

 

Since 1931, when the UK ended the gold standard/convertibility - for all 30 year periods (calendar year granularity) that was successful, covered 30 years. In the worst case little/nothing was left at the end of 30 years, but in the average (median) case you ended 30 years with the original inflation adjusted start date portfolio value still available. That worst case was if you started retirement at the outbreak of WW2, otherwise there was a high probability of ending with at least 50% still remaining, often 100%, sometimes 150% or more.

So on that £640K requirement assumption that would be £320K in gold, which at around £1900/oz = 168 ounces of gold (one ounce gold Britannia coins or getting on for 700 full Sovereigns.

Seems daunting when younger, but as you age closer to retirement so you may have already built up a decent sized portfolio value, where the growth in that can be multiples more of what additional savings you may be adding.

Another factor is that in retirement you may need much less, mortgage paid off, kids flown the nest and you might get by on £30K/year, which if £20K is covered by pensions requires a £250K savings pot, of which £125K in gold at 1900/oz = 66 oz.

[Charliemouse]

6 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

Monthly Expenses		Duration of Crisis
GBP £	Gold Ozt*	6 months	1 Year	18 Months	2 Years	3 Years
£500.00	0.26	1.6	3.2	4.7	6.3	9.5
£1,000.00	0.53	3.2	6.3	9.5	12.6	18.9
£2,000.00	1.05	6.3	12.6	18.9	25.3	37.9
£3,000.00	1.58	9.5	18.9	28.4	37.9	56.8
£4,000.00	2.11	12.6	25.3	37.9	50.5	75.8
£5,000.00	2.63	15.8	31.6	47.4	63.2	94.7
£6,000.00	3.16	18.9	37.9	56.8	75.8	113.7
£10,000.00	5.26	31.6	63.2	94.7	126.3	189.5
£15,000.00	7.89	47.4	94.7	142.1	189.5	284.2
£20,000.00	10.53	63.2	126.3	189.5	252.6	378.9
*based on 1ozt gold round from TSF:			£1,900.00

Took me a while to work out what this was saying.

So this is the number of ounces of gold you would burn through, assuming a constant gold price of £1,900, at the given outgoing rate over the given time.

[GoldDiggerDave]

8 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

Monthly Expenses		Duration of Crisis
GBP £	Gold Ozt*	6 months	1 Year	18 Months	2 Years	3 Years
£500.00	0.26	1.6	3.2	4.7	6.3	9.5
£1,000.00	0.53	3.2	6.3	9.5	12.6	18.9
£2,000.00	1.05	6.3	12.6	18.9	25.3	37.9
£3,000.00	1.58	9.5	18.9	28.4	37.9	56.8
£4,000.00	2.11	12.6	25.3	37.9	50.5	75.8
£5,000.00	2.63	15.8	31.6	47.4	63.2	94.7
£6,000.00	3.16	18.9	37.9	56.8	75.8	113.7
£10,000.00	5.26	31.6	63.2	94.7	126.3	189.5
£15,000.00	7.89	47.4	94.7	142.1	189.5	284.2
£20,000.00	10.53	63.2	126.3	189.5	252.6	378.9
*based on 1ozt gold round from TSF:			£1,900.00

As gold rises it can be a double edged sword for stackers,  do you still have the same monthly free cash to buy that 1-2 oz of gold?  (Talking about the stacker doing okay with 2-3k spare cash per month). 
 

 

[James32]

14 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

Monthly Expenses		Duration of Crisis
GBP £	Gold Ozt*	6 months	1 Year	18 Months	2 Years	3 Years
£500.00	0.26	1.6	3.2	4.7	6.3	9.5
£1,000.00	0.53	3.2	6.3	9.5	12.6	18.9
£2,000.00	1.05	6.3	12.6	18.9	25.3	37.9
£3,000.00	1.58	9.5	18.9	28.4	37.9	56.8
£4,000.00	2.11	12.6	25.3	37.9	50.5	75.8
£5,000.00	2.63	15.8	31.6	47.4	63.2	94.7
£6,000.00	3.16	18.9	37.9	56.8	75.8	113.7
£10,000.00	5.26	31.6	63.2	94.7	126.3	189.5
£15,000.00	7.89	47.4	94.7	142.1	189.5	284.2
£20,000.00	10.53	63.2	126.3	189.5	252.6	378.9
*based on 1ozt gold round from TSF:			£1,900.00

So basically I can go as hard as I like for 3 weeks then must start busking. 

[Bratnia]

2 minutes ago, GoldDiggerDave said:

As gold rises it can be a double edged sword for stackers,  do you still have the same monthly free cash to buy that 1-2 oz of gold?  (Talking about the stacker doing okay with 2-3k spare cash per month). 

Rather than just gold, combine savings into 50/50 stock/gold, add to whichever is below 50% of the combined value each month. Historically that grew in real terms at a 4%+ real (after inflation) rate Yields a more consistent real growth line, tending to add-low (to whichever of stocks or gold may be relatively down/poor at time). Averaging in like that (and averaging out during retirement) is inclined to do OK/well overall.

[GoldDiggerDave]

7 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

Conventional advice is to have accumulated 25 times your expected yearly spending in savings to cover a 30 year retirement period, so based on your £3.8K/month = £45.6K/year family spending rate = £1.14M wealth/savings. If you both have £10K/year in pension incomes then that reduces to £640K in savings. At retirement draw 4% of the start date portfolio value as income, uplifting that amount each year by inflation as subsequent years withdrawals (so your income rises with inflation).

If that is invested in 50/50 US stock total return accumulation fund and gold coins then you might spend using your credit card and each month sell some of either stocks or gold, whichever is the higher value at the time, to pay off the months credit card bill

 

Since 1931, when the UK ended the gold standard/convertibility - for all 30 year periods (calendar year granularity) that was successful, covered 30 years. In the worst case little/nothing was left at the end of 30 years, but in the average (median) case you ended 30 years with the original inflation adjusted start date portfolio value still available. That worst case was if you started retirement at the outbreak of WW2, otherwise there was a high probability of ending with at least 50% still remaining, often 100%, sometimes 150% or more.

So on that £640K requirement assumption that would be £320K in gold, which at around £1900/oz = 168 ounces of gold (one ounce gold Britannia coins or getting on for 700 full Sovereigns.

Seems daunting when younger, but as you age closer to retirement so you may have already built up a decent sized portfolio value, where the growth in that can be multiples more of what additional savings you may be adding.

Another factor is that in retirement you may need much less, mortgage paid off, kids flown the nest and you might get by on £30K/year, which if £20K is covered by pensions requires a £250K savings pot, of which £125K in gold at 1900/oz = 66 oz.

I might even have to work 3 days per week if it hits 2k 🤣

I get where you are coming from,  and yes as people go though life you would expect fixed cost to reduce in a % bases as income rises.  
 

For us only 9%  of our income is spoken for in fixed outgoings, so consider ourselves to be on the fortunate side of things.  

all I do with my money is buy Dewalt tools and gold. 

[Brit2023]

28 minutes ago, Darr3nG said:

Monthly Expenses		Duration of Crisis
GBP £	Gold Ozt*	6 months	1 Year	18 Months	2 Years	3 Years
£500.00	0.26	1.6	3.2	4.7	6.3	9.5
£1,000.00	0.53	3.2	6.3	9.5	12.6	18.9
£2,000.00	1.05	6.3	12.6	18.9	25.3	37.9
£3,000.00	1.58	9.5	18.9	28.4	37.9	56.8
£4,000.00	2.11	12.6	25.3	37.9	50.5	75.8
£5,000.00	2.63	15.8	31.6	47.4	63.2	94.7
£6,000.00	3.16	18.9	37.9	56.8	75.8	113.7
£10,000.00	5.26	31.6	63.2	94.7	126.3	189.5
£15,000.00	7.89	47.4	94.7	142.1	189.5	284.2
£20,000.00	10.53	63.2	126.3	189.5	252.6	378.9
*based on 1ozt gold round from TSF:			£1,900.00

Phew, that’s me sorted for a three day crisis then. Nearly started worrying.

[Bratnia]

There's a fun US data tool for Monte Carlo simulating here

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation?s=y&sl=3m40xZPnr0zZhh15rp9uYp

I've set that to start with 300K, invested 50/50 in stock/gold and drawing a inflation adjusted 1K/month for 30 years, i.e. to perhaps supplement a state/occupation pension(s). In the worst case 30 year period that ended with around a third of the inflation adjusted start date amount still available at the end of 30 years (10th percentile worst case), in the median (50th percentile) case it ended with 723K (inflation adjusted) i.e. over twice the start date amount.

There's also this link https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&sl=7KhaC75qi81HcdlYqCQv1v that shows how 50/50 stock/gold accumulated since 1972. If you hover the mouse over the (i) (information) character next to the Annualised Return (10.8%) value it shows the real (after inflation) growth rate (shows 6.18% to the most recent end of June 2024 date). What that indicates is that the value of your gold would have tended to increase by near 11%/year - which may be either 11.8% more ounces of gold being held each year if the price of gold remained much the same, or more ounces than that if the price of gold declined, or less ounces if the price of gold rose. On the flip side you'd have more/same/fewer stock shares being held, typically where if you were holding relatively fewer stocks shares you'd be holding relatively more ounces of gold and vice-versa.

Both the price of stocks and gold tend to be volatile, somewhat in a opposing direction manner. Periodic rebalancing the two is much like trading in a add-low/reduce-high manner. Generally its better to be neither fully invested in stocks only, or gold only. Different people opt for different blends of stocks and gold (or bonds) - just a matter of personal preference.

[burns718]

Can someone please explain to me in layman's term what/why/how the fed rate cut affects good price please? 

[Orpster]

3 minutes ago, burns718 said:

Can someone please explain to me in layman's term what/why/how the fed rate cut affects good price please? 

Gold and interest rates traditionally have a negative correlation. It is not always guaranteed but usually the gold price goes up when interest rates go down, and down when rates go up.

Recent movement in any commodity have been somewhat against the norm though.

Edited July 16 by Orpster