Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[Paul]

48 minutes ago, Thelonerangershorse said:

You missed "Putin is suprise winner of russian election , March 2024"

Putin and Chinas Xi are the rogues of global society spoiling things and the status quo of the west 

They are doing a lot of bits better in their society better than our shower of chit keeping watch and controlling the controls of the traditional west

West think on a term to term basis. 4 years. Putin and xi in china are looking 50 years ahead 

We'll be all welding iPhone version 59 s n Walsall Birmingham to top up our state pensions in retirement for china  and to qualify for our social credits and food vouchers in decades not far off 

[Bratnia]

13 minutes ago, katyc said:

Great link. This part says it all 👀

I see a big flight into US$ due to Covid and subsequent fears, along with S&P500 distorted great gains primarily due to the Magnificent Seven. Biden also spending to build like mad - looking to repatriate much of what China currently builds/exports to the US. Waxes and wanes, over another period and flight from US$ into better returns elsewhere will see the US relatively under-performing.

Union Pacific (rail) has more closely followed the S&P500, lagged it more modestly.

[Paul]

24 minutes ago, katyc said:

Great link. This part says it all 👀

Is this a silver related graph ? 

[ArgentSmith]

That chart gets more interesting the more you study it.

[Paul]

7 minutes ago, ArgentSmith said:

That chart gets more interesting the more you study it.

Now I've zoomed in

That's not a good sign

[bobski]

14 hours ago, silversky said:

There are rumours that Sunak might even resign before the election... Frankly I'm surprised the pound is holding up as well as it is.  Not sure what all this political turmoil will do for gold, but the EU is clearly in a bit of a mess trying to overcome natural forces, and here the conservatives can't win because too many right wing voters have had it with them for being fake.  The only hope now to avoid Labour is to vote Reform.    It's hilarious because the tories always threaten it the other way round, but in one week the Reform party membership went from 30k to 40k.  That must underlie a huge collapse in support for the tories.

Interesting tax policies just announced by Reform as well.  Raising the income tax threshold to 20k and raising the threshold for the higher rate tax.

Looks like political turmoil coming thick and fast this year.  But has gold already risen in advance of it all?  I'm not so sure, we've all known that mess was coming at the end of the year for the UK and USA, but the EU has added to that, along with the election here in the UK being brought forward.  And then there's the rate cutting... It's multiple layers of mess.

Close. Apparently it was a 15000 member increase in 6 days!

[Gruff]

8 hours ago, katyc said:

Great link. This part says it all 👀

If there is to be a correction to the Truck Haulage, then the S&P will lose over 50% in value (assuming that happens now), I assume it'll get worse the longer this goes on. Coincidentally it looks like haulage peaked in 2019. That was when the Reverse Repo market blew up. Was that the canary in the coal mine that another financial crisis was inbound? 
Then Convid to enable the money spiggots to be turned on full?

[Bratnia]

18 minutes ago, Gruff said:

If there is to be a correction to the Truck Haulage, then the S&P will lose over 50% in value (assuming that happens now), I assume it'll get worse the longer this goes on. Coincidentally it looks like haulage peaked in 2019. That was when the Reverse Repo market blew up. Was that the canary in the coal mine that another financial crisis was inbound? 
Then Convid to enable the money spiggots to be turned on full?

Or the 80,000 shortfall in truck drivers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59136957 after many baby boomers retired during Covid might get filled and see road haulage double. Or the two meet in the middle, Magnificent 7 that has pulled the S&P500 relatively ahead of other indexes causing a 25% decline, truck driver trainees start coming through and road haulage increases 50%.

[Gruff]

1 hour ago, Bratnia said:

Or the 80,000 shortfall in truck drivers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59136957 after many baby boomers retired during Covid might get filled and see road haulage double. Or the two meet in the middle, Magnificent 7 that has pulled the S&P500 relatively ahead of other indexes causing a 25% decline, truck driver trainees start coming through and road haulage increases 50%.

Potentially, but that will take time. Also the way that truckers are all pretty much self employed in the US, so need to take out loans to buy their rigs. Not cheap with current interest rates etc... 
They were also the forced to have the jabs and we know now that they weren't/aren't safe. A lot of them retired due to that and other lockdown BS that was imposed on them whilst hauling goods across the country.

What's the state of the S&P if you remove the "magnificent 7"? Is it broadly in line with the haulage?

[bobski]

Current Price

£1,811.93

Live Change

-0.01% £-0.08

Live high £1,812.43

 

Live low £1,811.49

[Bratnia]

35 minutes ago, Gruff said:

Potentially, but that will take time. Also the way that truckers are all pretty much self employed in the US, so need to take out loans to buy their rigs. Not cheap with current interest rates etc... 
They were also the forced to have the jabs and we know now that they weren't/aren't safe. A lot of them retired due to that and other lockdown BS that was imposed on them whilst hauling goods across the country.

What's the state of the S&P if you remove the "magnificent 7"? Is it broadly in line with the haulage?

More midway between the two i.e. trucking is still relatively down.

Valuations of the M7 : Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG and GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META) are high, could prove hard for those already large companies to grow into their valuations in the future, potentially causing their stock prices to relatively underperform and in having risen to being very large drag down the entire S&P500 index. Similar to Japan where some companies became global household names (Sony, Yamaha ... etc.) that when they did falter even after halving they still remained big and dominant of the index, such that the Japanese stock index was held back/down for a couple of decades.

[katyc]

2 hours ago, Gruff said:

If there is to be a correction to the Truck Haulage, then the S&P will lose over 50% in value (assuming that happens now), I assume it'll get worse the longer this goes on. Coincidentally it looks like haulage peaked in 2019. That was when the Reverse Repo market blew up. Was that the canary in the coal mine that another financial crisis was inbound? 
Then Convid to enable the money spiggots to be turned on full?

I'm glad you said this as I had this theory for years and all my sheep friends thought I was bonkers! Conspiracy Kate 🤪

They've all gone quiet now it's all coming out that it was a farce - from the 2 meter rule to the clot shots. No sh*t Sherlock....

[katyc]

2 hours ago, Bratnia said:

Or the 80,000 shortfall in truck drivers https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59136957 after many baby boomers retired during Covid might get filled and see road haulage double. Or the two meet in the middle, Magnificent 7 that has pulled the S&P500 relatively ahead of other indexes causing a 25% decline, truck driver trainees start coming through and road haulage increases 50%.

There was a shortage in all workers after Convid because many had lots of free furlough money in their banks and couldn't be arsed working.

But now, the likes of George Gammon, knows some very significant players in that industry who's gone from paying silly money to drivers due to lack of staff, to now cooling off, turning people away and even reducing hourly rates a little. People are desperate for a side hustle to pay the bills. 

I've seen a massive shift in British men taking on second jobs in the UK too.

They call it a cardboard box recession. When box sales decline, the GDP (and haulage) will too. I purchase quite a lot of boxes and saw prices explode post covid. But they've come down a lot now.

As a retailer myself, I can confidently say there's only way this is going. Retail feels just like it was in 2007 before the last crash. Worse actually.

Edited June 11 by katyc

[HerefordBullyun]

Just now, katyc said:

 

As a retailer myself, I can confidently say there's only way this is going. Retail feels just like it was in 2007 before the last crash. Worse actually.

Dont worry its all good! Here's the proof...

[Bratnia]

5 minutes ago, katyc said:

I'm glad you said this as I had this theory for years and all my sheep friends thought I was bonkers! Conspiracy Kate 🤪

They've all gone quiet now it's all coming out that it was a farce - from the 2 meter rule to the clot shots. No sh*t Sherlock....

We're all paying for the massive debt from furlough, paying some £2500/month to stay at home, not others, and where much was paid in frauds. All courtesy of Sunak, and where he set a objective to halve down the high double digit inflation that his own incompetence induced. Not addressing high energy prices was also a massive falling, has knock on inflation effects right across the economy and UK prices soared much higher/faster than the likes of energy prices in France. Japan was much less affected as their government plan/prepare for such situations i.e. energy and food suppliers contracts have smoothing clauses built in.

For a week or so the UK did start enforced quarantines, but that was soon dropped - when you have hundreds of illegals entering the country makes it pointless. Fortunately Covid wasn't a 99% fatality type virus. Maybe next time

[HerefordBullyun]

FOMC Wednesday.

Remember as long as you have a red cape - you can fly right? But so can pigs?

[HerefordBullyun]

Is it me or is the world run by fcuking morons?

[Bratnia]

4 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

Dont worry its all good! Here's the proof...

Money is debt. Without debt (money) the economy slows right down, as money flows from one to another so taxes are paid. A internal debt is just a money redistribution matter, what matters is the scale of foreign holders of debt and in the US case that stands at less than 25% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN At a 5% assumed cost (interest rate) relative to US GDP that's 1.3% i.e. easily serviced. 

[HerefordBullyun]

Just now, Bratnia said:

Money is debt. Without debt (money) the economy slows right down, as money flows from one to another so taxes are paid. A internal debt is just a money redistribution matter, what matters is the scale of foreign holders of debt and in the US case that stands at less than 25% https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FDHBFIN At a 5% assumed cost (interest rate) relative to US GDP that's 1.3% i.e. easily serviced. 

you forgot to mention 1 trillion a month interest.....

[HerefordBullyun]

 

[Bratnia]

1 minute ago, HerefordBullyun said:

you forgot to mention 1 trillion a month interest.....

That's per year, not month. 35 trillion debt, where 75% of that is domestically held, collected from/paid to Americans is just money redistribution, conceptually could be torn up.

[HerefordBullyun]

Just now, Bratnia said:

That's per year, not month. 35 trillion debt, where 75% of that is domestically held, collected from/paid to Americans is just money redistribution, conceptually could be torn up.

Oh everything's OK then? I must stop stacking gold start buying T bills then.... Let me know how the bond yield auctions goes... just ask China how much they buy...

[katyc]

27 minutes ago, Bratnia said:

We're all paying for the massive debt from furlough, paying some £2500/month to stay at home, not others, and where much was paid in frauds. All courtesy of Sunak, and where he set a objective to halve down the high double digit inflation that his own incompetence induced. Not addressing high energy prices was also a massive falling, has knock on inflation effects right across the economy and UK prices soared much higher/faster than the likes of energy prices in France. Japan was much less affected as their government plan/prepare for such situations i.e. energy and food suppliers contracts have smoothing clauses built in.

For a week or so the UK did start enforced quarantines, but that was soon dropped - when you have hundreds of illegals entering the country makes it pointless. Fortunately Covid wasn't a 99% fatality type virus. Maybe next time

Well Directors got nothing. Not a penny. Oh, yeah... we could have taken a loan.... that we pay back... with interest. Immoral people took it and left the country.  The rest stayed and suffered. We re opened and got increase in wages, stock, corporation tax etc. I could go on.

But payroll staff and self employed got 80% during the scam. Directors didn't even get 1%.

Many companies were still expected to pay a percentage towards staff and be closed, making no money at the same time.

Economy finally reopened and prices exploded because everyone was freeeeeee from a virus that the real cause of death wasn't even a fraction of a percentage (heart attacks and cancer were all blamed on covid. It was utterly bollocks). Directors suffered the most in business and still do. Conservative have discourage businesses. 4 words I thought I'd never say! When Labour are in power we are *****d!

Don't get me started on the energy scam. The price caps that were a false economy as they raised them every few months. This country takes the absolute p*ss out of it's citizens.

I have a 5 year plan. And the UK will not be part of it apart from my properties (because I'm not selling them to start again elsewhere as it's taken me decades of working 15h days to get there). I'll be taking my profits / spending money to a country that has the least snowflakes and immigration. Nowhere is perfect, but the UK is near the bottom of the pile. I only have to look around in any town centre to see we have a decade - probably two - before Britain could be great again (even then I'm doubtful). 

I'm very bitter about the UK 😬 (but I know we aren't the only ones who are a joke. Canada have had it bad too).

Edited June 11 by katyc

[Darr3nG]

2 minutes ago, HerefordBullyun said:

just ask China how much they buy...

你買多少錢？

[Bratnia]

1 minute ago, katyc said:

Well Directors got nothing. Not a penny. Oh, yeah... we could have taken a loan.... that we pay back... with interest. Immoral people took it and left the country.  The rest stayed and suffered. We re opened and got increase in wages, stock, corporation tax etc. I could go on.

But payroll staff and self employed got 80% during the scam. Directors didn't even get 1%.

Many companies were still expected to pay a percentage towards staff and be closed, making no money at the same time.

Economy finally reopened and prices exploded because everyone was freeeeeee from a virus that the real cause of death wasn't even a fraction of a percentage (heart attacks and cancer were all blamed on covid. It was utterly bollocks). Directors suffered the most in business and still do. Conservative have discourage businesses. 4 words I thought I'd never say! When Labour are in power we are *****d!

Don't get me started on the energy scam. The price caps that were a false economy as they raised them every few months. This country takes the absolute p*ss out of it's citizens.

I have a 5 year plan. And the UK will not be part of it apart from my properties to generate income. I'll be taking my personal spending money to a country that has the least snowflakes and immigration. Nowhere is perfect, but the UK is near the bottom of the pile. I only have to look around in any town centre to see we have a decade - probably two - before Britain could be great again (even then I'm doubtful). 

I'm very bitter about the UK 😬 (but I know we aren't the only ones who are a joke. Canada have had it bad too).

Self employed got nada as well. And yes GP's were scared so instead of actually investigating/reporting deaths a simple 'Covid' tick was preferred.

Trouble is where else. Thought about Ireland but that's even more out-populated by migrants nowadays. Nomadic perhaps, rotate between four locations < 3 months visitor stays each - track more clement weather. NZ, UK, Portugal, Alderney (Guernsey if you're rich, Jersey if you're very rich).