Bear Signs

[vand]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

I don't buy the yield curve inverting thing.

sounds like more interest rate myths

 

HH

Banks business is lending long and borrowing short. They can't do that if short term rates are higher than long term rates.

It's not 100% reliable, no single indicator ever is, but it has something like a 80% success rate in the last century. I wouldn't bet against it.

[HawkHybrid]

11 hours ago, vand said:

They can't do that if short term rates are higher than long term rates.

 

that's the point. it's a disconnect of the system similar to

negative interest rates.

 

HH

[vand]

An inverted curve indicates that the bond market is demanding a higher return for lending short term.. why would it do that? Because the buyers of the debt instrument expect more risk in the short term than the long term, ie economic recession. 

[Oldun]

If the 2 yr and 10 yr cross, that, in the past, has been an indicator of recession a year or so later.....

[HawkHybrid]

what I'm saying is it's not a forward indicator. it's the result of.

whatever caused the inverted curve has probably created the

recession already. only the recession is reported as 2 quarters

of negative growth ie it takes 3 quarters before any current

recession is reported.(notice how they say recession likely nine

months later, is this a convenience or a reporting technicality?)

don't a 10 year bond carry the risk of default in the first 2 years

+ an additional 8 years risk of default? is it not always more

risky than a 2 year bond?

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

I do think a recession is coming because of the hammering the

stock market is getting. lower lows(nasdaq futures different

calendar months), never a good sign for continuing bulls.

 

HH

[vand]

The first sign of reversion to the mean for this bull market's bellweather bluechip:

Apple cuts holiday sales forecast on iPhone and China weakness, stock falls 8%

[vand]

We now have a "meaningful" yield curve inversion between the 3month and 10yr notes:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-inverted-here-are-5-things-investors-need-to-know-2019-03-22

We're f^%$^d.

[Elements]

What can they do? I remember back second half of last year a panick because 10yr rates hit 3%. They’ve fallen a fair way now which along with rising short term resulted in the inversion. QE coming home to roost?

50 minutes ago, vand said:

We now have a "meaningful" yield curve inversion between the 3month and 10yr notes:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-yield-curve-inverted-here-are-5-things-investors-need-to-know-2019-03-22

We're f^%$^d.

 

[vand]

The case is building that things only get worse from here:

- Fed has already openly stated that its tightening cycle has peaked

- Significant inversions in the yield curve

- Equity Markets have bounced, but still remain below previous peaks.. bull trap?

 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, vand said:

Equity Markets have bounced, but still remain below previous peaks.. bull trap?

 

current best guess is a higher high on the s&p 500 before

the end of the year.

turning points take time. major turning points take longer.

 

HH

[vand]

4 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

current best guess is a higher high on the s&p 500 before

the end of the year.

turning points take time. major turning points take longer.

 

HH

Its quite possible, of course, but the seasonal window for the best chance to do so is closing.

https://www.aaii.com/journal/article/using-seasonal-and-cyclical-stock-market-patterns

[HawkHybrid]

I was thinking more on the lines of a sept/oct top similar

to last year. although it could also be a longer move

resulting in the top some time next april.

 

(the charts are saying that there's likely more up

movement to come)

 

HH

[vand]

You could argue this is a major top pattern that has been playing out since Q1-2018. At the very least it's a large consolidation period.. which has the potential to turn into a major top.

How deep the next selloff goes will tell us a lot.

Bulls should be careful though.. the momentum on the weekly charts all indicate massive negative divergence

[vand]

[HawkHybrid]

big waves/pullbacks take time to play out. this one should take

months. a smaller top is due maybe sometime april. the next

move down from this smaller top lasting some months is

unlikely to be as big as the one starting oct last year. we should

be going through the first subwaves. a larger move down should

come nearer to the end of this big wave, but that is months upon

months away from now.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

 

some stats on inverted yield curve half way through.

 

HH

[vand]

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

some stats on inverted yield curve half way through.

 

HH

 

He's contradicting his own statistics on the length of time between YC inversion and top of the market.. it's NOT "10-35 months lag" between the inversion and market peak, it's an average of 10 months, and anywhere betwen -5 months to 35 months (ie, there is historical precedence to suggest the market may already have peaked)

Regardless, do you want to be chasing the last few %? There is a saying "leave the last 10% for the suckers". (might even be 20%).

 

[sixgun]

20 minutes ago, vand said:

There is a saying "leave the last 10% for the suckers".

That comes from the Rothschilds but i didn't see suckers - i thought it was the goyim.

[HawkHybrid]

37 minutes ago, vand said:

Regardless, do you want to be chasing the last few %? There is a saying "leave the last 10% for the suckers"

 

that would depend on the percentage.

s&p drop q4 of 2018 amounts to about ~25%.

if it's still got 10%-20%, that is no small amount you're

giving up. especially if it takes months to do so.

(the last one in 2006 took 21 months before a recession

hit so it could be months)

 

HH

[vand]

Canada joins the club.

 

The guy Tal speaks a lot of sense

 

 

[Abyss]

Follow the charts and let price be your guide. We will never know when tipping point may come to push the global economy into global recession and what combination of macro economics required. Is it possible in the year 2023 for the FTSE100 10,000 and S&P 3800 and gold silver to be still be rangebound? The trend is your friend until it ends.

FTSE 100 - Long term uptrend

S&P 500 - Long term uptrend

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/technical-analysis-markets-196

 

imo wave 3 that started mid 2010 is coming to an end.

best guess on s&p futures is either 2980 or 3320.

 

once it finishes there should be a move down towards ~2000

area. this is likely to take over a year to play out from the

wave 3 top.

 

HH

[vand]

Didn't realise this bull just recently turned 10!

Happy Birthday!

https://www.investopedia.com/market-milestones-as-the-bull-market-turns-10-4588903

If it can keep holding above the Dec low over the next 3 months it will become the longest on record. Gotta admire the sheer resilience on display, albeit with copious amounts of help from the central banks and PPT.

 

 

[Pipers]

The more of the population that get in on something then there is more of a chance of a bear market.  Is the real world market over heated?  are banks starting to call in loans? 

Myself i am not sure.   I thought we would be going to have a bear by now.  The one thing i will say there is no money circulating at the bottom in the real world, its strange we have the media stating we are doing well when all around if any of us take time to look and see for ourselves people are struggling like never before.  There is something wrong and figures are completely devoid  from reality.