KDave

I'm waiting for BP to go below 1.80 although it's great entry point now I think. But it's going to be a bumpy ride

Ah got you. Yes I meant bad timing as I made a bad assumption it was about to go up. I cost averaged too often & don't really have enough funds too continue. Not somehting I have replicated since.  so i have leant my lesson. 

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hybridsecurity.asp
Good question, it looks like normally a hybrid is debt that can be converted into equity. For existing share holders its an ongoing threat of a placing, which is otherwise just more debt. For the bond buyer its a secure way of investing in a company (lenders are paid first in bankruptcy) that pays a guaranteed a decent yield, with option to convert to shares? I can't find the details anywhere for BP, it looks like 3.5% yield for the bond holder. Its only brief mention in Q2, I didn't pay it much attention at the time; 
https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/investors/bp-second-quarter-2020-results.pdf
"Updates to significant accounting policies, Hybrid bond issuance: On 17 June 2020, a group subsidiary issued perpetual subordinated hybrid bonds in EUR, GBP and USD for a USD equivalent amount of $11.9 billion. As the group has the unconditional right to avoid transferring cash or another financial asset in relation to these hybrid bonds, they are classified as equity instruments and reported within non-controlling interests in the condensed consolidated financial statements. The contractual terms of these instruments allow the group to defer coupon payments and the repayment of principal indefinitely, however their terms and conditions stipulate that any deferred payments must be made in the event of an announcement of an ordinary share or parity equity dividend distribution or certain share repurchases or redemptions." 
Looks like these are more bond than share, in that BP does not have to transfer cash (I read as repayment of principle) or financial assets (I read that as placing of shares) to the bond holders. These bonds are open ended in that BP can defer the principle repayment indefinitely, and can defer interest payments. BP can only defer interest payments until a dividend or share repurchase is announced. If I am reading into that right, this gives BP the option of breathing room on coupon payments linked to the dividend. A lever to pull, if its cancels the dividend then it can stop the coupon payment until they are both restored. In return the bond holders get 3.5% yield which will be paid as often and for as long as a dividend is paid. But they will not see a share nor will their principle be repaid. Seems quite a risky product for the buyer, perhaps there is more to it or I am reading into that incorrectly.
Perhaps BP are refinancing at lowish interest rates for the long haul while they can. That yield is pretty low given the flexibility offered to the company. I have not found much to go on, I would like to see the details from the bond holder perspective to see if its a good deal for them beyond the yield, because if inflation picks up even at that yield this is still a better deal for BP than the bond holder. If I have this right its a great move; 11.9 billion in perpetual long debt at only 3.5% which can be turned off with the dividend (in a disaster scenario)?

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/investors/bp-third-quarter-2020-results.pdf
BP quarterly results, a minuscule profit, some debt paid off, dividend being paid for now. They have stopped bleeding at realised average WTI $40.91 and Brent $42.94, if we see much lower than those markers then and they will struggle all being equal. Although not good for BP short term we could do with sub $40 oil prices for a few months ideally to make a big difference long term, the lower it goes now the higher it goes later. 
"In the quarter, net debt reduced to around $40 billion and our cash balance point was around $42 Brent, despite weak refining margins, low gas prices, reduced product demand and the payment to Reliance. Funding the dividend remains our first priority and we are confident in moving towards our $35 billion net debt target, supported by value accretive divestments." 

There is a joke that an investor is just a successful speculator. The joke can only be true if you confuse gambling with investing, in which case, jokes on you. Say you put £10,000 into opening a business in a product you are sure will do well, that business goes on to make £20,000 - was it a successful gamble? Or was it an investment? Which best describes it. The same process is happening when you buy into a company on the stock market for the same reasons, the share price is the price of entry. Do you want to pay more to set up the business/position due to a high share price? Or would you rather pay less to set up? Keep the ideas about gambling and investing separate, as they are not the same thing. If you are trading solely on a share price movement then you can say you are speculating/gambling, because as we have seen over 2020 the short term movement of share prices often have little to do with either the long or short term realities and prospects of the business or the economy.
You are right to lose faith in commentators, just use them for information and then you don't need to work out what angle they are working because its then irrelevant to you. Personally I share what I am doing here and elsewhere to hold myself to account and test my ideas out. I think perhaps some of the commentators I follow do that as well, but who cares, I am only listening not really following despite the social media terminology. Perhaps there isn't much difference.    
Parts of the market, especially the US market are overvalued by many metrics, other markets such as the FTSE are not. Look at the difference between what is in the NASDAQ and what is in the FTSE 100 as an example of where the money is going. FTSE 100 is heavy into materials, mining, oil, etc. US markets have trimmed oil and gas in some cases (was it the DOW that cut oil and gas? I forget). We may get a crash like March, we might instead get a rotation into value and materials, we may get the big one like 2007 or 2000. Who knows. There are a lot of people in on the reflation trade right now from what I am reading, it is quite possible we will see a good shake out of the weak hands before things turn around next year. In the case of the oil price, the lower it goes now, the higher it goes later. 

There is a joke that an investor is just a successful speculator. The joke can only be true if you confuse gambling with investing, in which case, jokes on you. Say you put £10,000 into opening a business in a product you are sure will do well, that business goes on to make £20,000 - was it a successful gamble? Or was it an investment? Which best describes it. The same process is happening when you buy into a company on the stock market for the same reasons, the share price is the price of entry. Do you want to pay more to set up the business/position due to a high share price? Or would you rather pay less to set up? Keep the ideas about gambling and investing separate, as they are not the same thing. If you are trading solely on a share price movement then you can say you are speculating/gambling, because as we have seen over 2020 the short term movement of share prices often have little to do with either the long or short term realities and prospects of the business or the economy.
You are right to lose faith in commentators, just use them for information and then you don't need to work out what angle they are working because its then irrelevant to you. Personally I share what I am doing here and elsewhere to hold myself to account and test my ideas out. I think perhaps some of the commentators I follow do that as well, but who cares, I am only listening not really following despite the social media terminology. Perhaps there isn't much difference.    
Parts of the market, especially the US market are overvalued by many metrics, other markets such as the FTSE are not. Look at the difference between what is in the NASDAQ and what is in the FTSE 100 as an example of where the money is going. FTSE 100 is heavy into materials, mining, oil, etc. US markets have trimmed oil and gas in some cases (was it the DOW that cut oil and gas? I forget). We may get a crash like March, we might instead get a rotation into value and materials, we may get the big one like 2007 or 2000. Who knows. There are a lot of people in on the reflation trade right now from what I am reading, it is quite possible we will see a good shake out of the weak hands before things turn around next year. In the case of the oil price, the lower it goes now, the higher it goes later. 

I like that scenario. Fill my boots in the next few months with some cheap stock, and then reap the benefits.

I've heard people say the s&p500 could be in a very large megaphone pattern and it does match up 
The top is about +4% and the bottom is -40% 
No idea if this will be prove to be of any relevance but if I throw enough ___ at the wall something will stick and I can say "ahh see, I was right" lol 

 

Shell will make returns over the next few years in accordance with rising oil and gas prices. The market thinks oil is dead about 30 years too early hence the market gift of £9 shell and £2 bp (insane yield on BP at this price).
Returns depend on how high oil goes, for shell $60 oil is $20 billion free cashflow, at $70 its $30 billion, so on and so forth. When inflation picks up oil will be 3 digits mid decade, I expect new all time highs. Depends on how low it goes and how long it stays there over the next few months. 

I've put £1,200 into Royal Dutch Shell because it sounds like a safe enough investment  (I at least don't expect to lose money on it) but really I have no idea how much it's going to be worth 5 or 10 or 15 years from now. Will it go back up to it's old 2018/2019 value, or will it NEVER return to that level?

Bought more BP at just under 200 earlier today.

10 year US bond is creeping up, likely the FED will be along to smash some more QE in soon. 
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
Sure oil might drop further, or it might not. What is the downside now you reckon? Risk/reward downside vs upside must be in favour on the charts now surely?  
I can't help myself I just keep buying, Shell earlier this month for sub £9, never thought I would see it, today I have bought a few more BP for £2. Payday I was looking for some more Total, even with French dividend tax the yield is decent and its the best one of the majors imo. I think as with the sovereigns we were buying back in the day, in a few years we will look back at these prices and think it unbelievable. But who knows! 

10 year US bond is creeping up, likely the FED will be along to smash some more QE in soon. 
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
Sure oil might drop further, or it might not. What is the downside now you reckon? Risk/reward downside vs upside must be in favour on the charts now surely?  
I can't help myself I just keep buying, Shell earlier this month for sub £9, never thought I would see it, today I have bought a few more BP for £2. Payday I was looking for some more Total, even with French dividend tax the yield is decent and its the best one of the majors imo. I think as with the sovereigns we were buying back in the day, in a few years we will look back at these prices and think it unbelievable. But who knows! 

https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar
27th - BP 29th - Shell 30th - Exxon 30th  - Chevron @KDave I'm only negative on oil for the near future (unless something fundamentally changes), I just don't think we've found the bottom yet but time will tell 

Then people are betting the wrong way, as Biden is not going to win the election 
Oil stocks will continue to be hated, it is political, fashionable, moral even. Once cashflow is rolling in people will want to buy oil stocks regardless. I read that NEST the UK biggest pension fund is no longer investing in oil and gas, another massive contrarian indicator.
Demand growth in energy is the easiest thing to see, as is the lack of supply. If we want to go full windmill in the UK, it is going to take a lot of energy to get there. 

This should be positive for the share price naturally, and there is never a more sensible time for buy backs than at the lows. This is the kind of action you would expect from good management.

Thanks for highlighting this, I like the look of APF from the 2020 AGM slides and looking through the royalties page on the website. I will do a bit more digging. My first thought for its performance is sentiment, caught up in the same wave of irrationality as the rest of the energy stocks but it appears well diversified. They say in the slides they are not making any more investments into coal, which perhaps like BP saying it will move away from oil has had the same effect on investors who have sold to look elsewhere for someone who will invest in coal. Coking coal is used exclusively for steel production? If so I don't understand the move away from it, we are going to need more not less over the next decade. 

Would the 5million share buy back have any bearing? (Albeit , announces 25 Sept, genuine question)

On London, I own The Renewable Infrastructure Group (TRIG.L), which hasn't performed particularly well, but it pays a nice dividend. On Nasdaq you might care to check out Clearway Energy (CWEN) and Brookfield Renewable Partners (BEP). If you like royalty companies, check out RE Royalties (RE.V).

Wind
Vestas Wind Systems - VWS Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy - SGRE Solar
Canadian Solar - CSIQ Enphase energy - ENPH First Solar - FSLR Vivint Solar - VSLR Solaredge technologies- SEDG Ormat technologies  - ORA Sunrun inc - RUN Xinyi Solar - 0968.HK (manufactures solar glass) Utility
Nextera - NEE (does solar and windfarms I think but supplies the energy as a utility company) None UK, I think the windfarms are EU, Xinyi is Hong Kong and rest North American

Maybe they have not bottomed, maybe they have, who knows mate. The idea was not to try catch the bottom it was to build exposure to sectors that will do well in the industrial cycle. All year I have been saying it, telecoms, energy, mining, while the market hated on them and bought tech, Tesla, Apple, etc. Now the sectors get some action, is it the market wising up or is it as the article says, new entrants seeing value in 25 year lows and taking a punt on a bounce back, I would expect the latter. Which means as you say there could be more downside in the short term, I was hoping for a few more months of buying in oil I really like Total and had missed it until recently. We will see. 
I am hearing calls for oil to be $50+ by year end, that would not be the best case in my view as the best returns will come from a true shake out in the oil industry, killing off shale with sub $40 oil for a period of months. BP can break even on $35 a barrel, shell is aiming for $30. Imagine break even at $30 a barrel when oil is at $80-$100 end of 2021, no new entrants coming into the market (because oil is dead right) CAPEX massively reduced, where are all those profits going? Hopefully not all into windmills  most of it will go to share holders via buy backs and dividends but we will see. 
I don't think the market is buying oil for the reasons we have been exploring here, it is bargain hunting and gambling on a bounce back but who knows, once the stock is bought for a punt it can easily turn into an investment if circumstances turn positive, lets hope not for my desired position in Total's sake.
May I ask what are the green stocks you are looking at please anything UK based?  

Maybe they have not bottomed, maybe they have, who knows mate. The idea was not to try catch the bottom it was to build exposure to sectors that will do well in the industrial cycle. All year I have been saying it, telecoms, energy, mining, while the market hated on them and bought tech, Tesla, Apple, etc. Now the sectors get some action, is it the market wising up or is it as the article says, new entrants seeing value in 25 year lows and taking a punt on a bounce back, I would expect the latter. Which means as you say there could be more downside in the short term, I was hoping for a few more months of buying in oil I really like Total and had missed it until recently. We will see. 
I am hearing calls for oil to be $50+ by year end, that would not be the best case in my view as the best returns will come from a true shake out in the oil industry, killing off shale with sub $40 oil for a period of months. BP can break even on $35 a barrel, shell is aiming for $30. Imagine break even at $30 a barrel when oil is at $80-$100 end of 2021, no new entrants coming into the market (because oil is dead right) CAPEX massively reduced, where are all those profits going? Hopefully not all into windmills  most of it will go to share holders via buy backs and dividends but we will see. 
I don't think the market is buying oil for the reasons we have been exploring here, it is bargain hunting and gambling on a bounce back but who knows, once the stock is bought for a punt it can easily turn into an investment if circumstances turn positive, lets hope not for my desired position in Total's sake.
May I ask what are the green stocks you are looking at please anything UK based?  

Maybe they have not bottomed, maybe they have, who knows mate. The idea was not to try catch the bottom it was to build exposure to sectors that will do well in the industrial cycle. All year I have been saying it, telecoms, energy, mining, while the market hated on them and bought tech, Tesla, Apple, etc. Now the sectors get some action, is it the market wising up or is it as the article says, new entrants seeing value in 25 year lows and taking a punt on a bounce back, I would expect the latter. Which means as you say there could be more downside in the short term, I was hoping for a few more months of buying in oil I really like Total and had missed it until recently. We will see. 
I am hearing calls for oil to be $50+ by year end, that would not be the best case in my view as the best returns will come from a true shake out in the oil industry, killing off shale with sub $40 oil for a period of months. BP can break even on $35 a barrel, shell is aiming for $30. Imagine break even at $30 a barrel when oil is at $80-$100 end of 2021, no new entrants coming into the market (because oil is dead right) CAPEX massively reduced, where are all those profits going? Hopefully not all into windmills  most of it will go to share holders via buy backs and dividends but we will see. 
I don't think the market is buying oil for the reasons we have been exploring here, it is bargain hunting and gambling on a bounce back but who knows, once the stock is bought for a punt it can easily turn into an investment if circumstances turn positive, lets hope not for my desired position in Total's sake.
May I ask what are the green stocks you are looking at please anything UK based?  

I have no idea what the market will price RR at post placing because I have done no work as to what the company is worth, but for a short term trade, 150p per share today bought at 101 last week is a decent return if cashing out. If you bought based on the share price as a trade then consider your options before 27th October, but if you bought because you like the company long term then short term share price movement is less important.
Given that 3 shares today are worth 450p today, with new issues coming in at a discount of 32p per share (320p), 13 / 770 = 59p per share post recapitalising? So the market should open on 27th October around that price but who knows honestly mate, it could do anything and will likely move up and down like a yoyo between now and then (27th). If you have not researched the company yet you need to look through the balance sheets to see what its worth against a few metrics, work out how much value is behind each share and see where you think it is in regards to over/under priced. 

My guess would be the dollar has bottomed out, it's going to break to the upside within the next month or two, in the meantime it will move sideways and gold will be stable sideways along with it until  it drops; If it establishes itself back above $1912 flush that prediction down the toilet
1912 1880 1850 1810 1750 There's more horizontal levels but these seems to be the major ones as well as the red trend lines