KDave

Not really sorry I have nothing that you would find useful for charting/timing it is a weak spot for me for sure. But I don't look at it like that, my foundation is based on a currently weak understanding of macro-economics and value investing. I keep an eye on the rig count purely for academic purposes, and I visit oilprice.com for obvious reasons, it has some good articles on there that gleam interesting insight now and again, a bit like gold-eagle.com has editorials about gold, most of it is noise. Rigcount will tell you a tiny bit about supply, but its only half the picture and so useless (academic), as for tankers and storage I have no idea, if I knew it wouldn't change my thesis, long term its noise. I know you can buy access to that information.
I say the oil price bottomed in April because of the monthly prices, look at this;
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil&months=60
      May 2019 66.83 -2.55 % Jun 2019 59.76 -10.58 % Jul 2019 61.48 2.88 % Aug 2019 57.67 -6.20 % Sep 2019 60.04 4.11 % Oct 2019 57.27 -4.61 % Nov 2019 60.40 5.47 % Dec 2019 63.35 4.88 % Jan 2020 61.63 -2.72 % Feb 2020 53.35 -13.44 % Mar 2020 32.20 -39.64 % Apr 2020 21.04 -34.66 % May 2020 30.38 44.39 % Jun 2020 39.46 29.89 % Jul 2020 42.07 6.61 % You need to go back a very long time to see oil that low, even before the death of oil in 2015, it has bottomed imo. That doesn't mean that BP or Shell or any of them have bottomed though, share prices are 90% sentiment. The 30 year chart in that link is interesting. 

Learn then invest is the best way to do it, trying the other way around is expensive in my experience. Right now you have three choices, hold, sell or buy more. No one here can tell you because no one knows what's coming next. 

https://www.holdingschannel.com/all/stocks-held-by-sprott-inc/

There are a few uranium stocks that Sprott is holding as of this June 2020.

i will be visiting uranium stocks again one day but not today - as Rick Rule says it costs $50 a pound to produce but sells at $30. The cure for low prices is low prices.

The last time the market visited this situation, many miners went out of business, exploration fell off a cliff. There wasn't enough supply, so when demand exhausted the stockpiles, price exploded up - $billions were made in 100 bagger miners.
The same applies today - the world is running on the stockpile from the last boom. Stock piles are running down. As i said in past years on this forum with reference to silver, it is not a question of IF it is simply a matter of WHEN. The lights go out with no nuclear. The silver in an iphone is pennies but it is vital to the iphone. Plenty of room for price appreciation. The cost of uranium in a nuclear power plant is pennies - plenty of room for price appreciation.
See you again in a couple of years time.

If current level doesnt hold, next stop around 1895.

Big announcements in USA nation's debt now more than entire GDP of country, stocks hit and precious metals to. Headlines like this always cause turbulence. If you can't handle volitlity don't buy any silver lol

My investment thesis - Energy is leverage. A man can produce 1 unit using his labour. The same man can leverage his production with an electrically powered machine and do the work of 10 men in the same time. The cost of that leverage is important though. If he uses coal or gas produced leverage, he might pay 1 unit to produce that 10, net gain 9 units. If he uses wind or solar produced leverage, he might pay 7 units worth to produce 10, net gain 3 units.
Nuclear is somewhere between the two, lets say 3 units cost to 10 out. It is not as efficient as coal or gas, but it is reliable and it is cheap in terms of units put in, compared to renewable sources, which are expensive in terms of relative efficiency (units in vs out) and also in terms of reliability. Reliability is massively important for certain industries, we are so used to reliable power supply people have forgotten what its like without. Renewable does not provide that reliability or anywhere near the efficiency of leverage we are used to, but coal and gas are marked for death by the climate lobby. If renewable was reliable, it still costs a fortune to produce relative to fossil fuel, which means a huge cut in the cost of living from 9 units down to 3. It ain't going to happen. So what then do we invest in? Something between the two. Uranium. 
A nation that produces 10 units for every 3 put in will out compete a nation that puts 7 in to produce the same amount. When industrial output becomes the driving force of the economy again, these things will matter. And if coal and gas are off the table due to the politics, it will be the next most efficient form of reliable electricity that is used for production in order to be competitive - nuclear. Uranium as an investment then is a play on a host of things, politics, expected energy requirements due to reindustrialisation, etc.

Can't hurt to keep a couple of Oz tucked away in the bottom of the sock drawer.

In my opinion your timing and research is good, RDSB are the shares you want, dividend withholding tax on the RDSA ones. I have both companies among others in the sector, to me its a 100% no brainer although perhaps very contrarian at the moment given how much the market hates big oil. Its fashionable to hate them. I am very confident long term (mid 20's), short term I have no idea if we will get further downside or if it shoots up Monday, but be prepared to hold and accumulate through some rough times if oil breaks down again. The downside is limited imo. 
Dividends have been cut on BP by half (still a solid 5-6% dividend depending when you bought), and instead the board are planning to buy back shares using up to 15% of cashflow. The buy backs are discretionary so power has been taken from the shareholders (dividends) and put in the hands of the board, I still expect this to return and compound perhaps 20% per year including dividends over the decade. We will see. 
Shell have cut dividend by 2/3rds, way too far and too fast, I expect this to be raised once oil starts to recover if the board members want to keep their jobs. I expect similar returns over the decade from shell, they are a long term, potentially retirement hold given the dividend potential and position relative to LNG/Hydrogen.
These companies are looking forward at hydrogen production to meet the green agenda (or that is how its being sold), BP in particular, as hydrogen will be the green replacement for natural gas. I am told that gas engineering certificates now include hydrogen, existing infrastructure can be used to transport store and supply it for the most part. There are also geopoitical implications of being able to produce a nations own LNG equivalent (Europe no longer reliant on Russia). This will be renewable or conventional electricity (solar wind nuclear) being used to produce hydrogen, which in turn is used in the existing gas network throughout Europe. Green agenda achieved, strategic energy achieved. Although LNG is cheaper at the moment, these companies have the size and scale to change that over the coming years through investment and development.
As an aside Tesla looks like a shoeshine stock; I don't see anyone excited about oil and no one is talking about hydrogen, just saying. 
Not sure about cruise liners, those are a favourite Robinhood choice so I am staying away. I am looking at Agri shares for inflation (Mosaic, Nutrient, K+S), telecoms (BT.A, VOD, TEF) and infrastructure (DRAX, NG. SSE). I like the big FTSE listed mining shares too but they have gone up too much since march for my liking and are on the watch list. Waiting for a pullback. 

Apple is now worth more than the entire FTSE 100 constituents combined (according to its share price), and Tesla has a price to earnings that would mean you would have to wait almost a thousand years to get your money back from said earnings if you bought the company at today's share valuation. Make of that what you will.

Yes I am running a 12 year old ford focus diesel I bought with cash before my daughter was born, it has cost me about £30 a month in initial cost, parts and repairs averaged out over the time I have had it. Nearly time for a new one, I am waiting for furlough and credit freezes to end and people to start handing back the PCP/on finance car keys on mass, there should be a lot of used cars flooding the market then and pushing down prices. That will be a good time to buy if it happens, but it largely depends on government. Likely the socialists in power called the conservative party will step in and prop people up.
There is also potential for another scrapage scheme as well maybe, as you say the car industry is really a financial one, they need to keep new cars selling as most of the value of a new car is in the debt they lend out. I think inflation over the coming years will kill most of the profits in that business model and likely the idea of renting a car too. Its only possible now because debt is so cheap for everyone.

Very nice price on those, obviously I wish I had waited for that £10.25 dip but saw £10.40 this morning and couldn't believe it half of the £9 shell fund went in, probably too early as usual. I am watching BP as well, I said to myself wait for £2.50 and didn't get it, perhaps there will be opportunity yet.  
XOM sub $40 with this dollar to £ and that dividend at these oil prices, something doesn't add up and I am assuming sentiment but who the hell knows maybe I am wrong again. 
Just remember being to early is the same as being wrong if you can't hold on, and it could be a rough few months for stocks if things turn against the market, tech stocks blow up and take the lot with them. Be prepared for the worst and get paid to endure the volatility, that is what the dividends are for. 

PAIN!! 😊
Just bought Shell @1025.
Another 15 mins and I'll be putting more into XOM.
I don't know. Anything could happen 🤷‍♂️

Very nice price on those, obviously I wish I had waited for that £10.25 dip but saw £10.40 this morning and couldn't believe it half of the £9 shell fund went in, probably too early as usual. I am watching BP as well, I said to myself wait for £2.50 and didn't get it, perhaps there will be opportunity yet.  
XOM sub $40 with this dollar to £ and that dividend at these oil prices, something doesn't add up and I am assuming sentiment but who the hell knows maybe I am wrong again. 
Just remember being to early is the same as being wrong if you can't hold on, and it could be a rough few months for stocks if things turn against the market, tech stocks blow up and take the lot with them. Be prepared for the worst and get paid to endure the volatility, that is what the dividends are for. 

As KDave said, you would hope the competently run big companies would be using the next year or two to streamline themselves, buy up cheap assets from other companies going bankrupt and when the economy is better come out on the other side looking good with rising oil prices
I think there will be a crash from looking at different economic data (thread below) but who knows
 
 

Yes it might be early which would be the same as being wrong but I don't think its too early to be buying personally, I am content to take the hit in the short term and just keep buying all the way through. Sure the market might crash next month, if you think so then sell everything and buy back next month. The trouble is the crash in October might not happen, and if it does happen it might not happen in October. It might be in one sector of the market (tech) and not take down value stocks that are already hammered, or it might take the whole lot with it. Who knows! I think it likely we will see a crash but I don't know when and I don't know from which level, so I am buying now bits a time. 
I am concerned that you say a serious investment should be all eggs in one basket, this is in my opinion not a good idea unless you are extremely confident on something or are insider trading, otherwise it will likely end in tears. Better to be diversified into many areas you like and some you don't, and then if you are wrong in one place your loss might be covered by where you are right. There is a saying that if you are not losing money somewhere then you are not properly diversified and if you are losing money everywhere the same applies and shouldn't come as a surprise.
Peter lynch is backwards looking at supply just like everyone else, trust me they ain't pumping 12 million barrels a day now, you don't have to take my word for it. A year ago rig count was 900+ now its 254. The oil crash has killed production and the lack of new activity with these oil prices will kill it further. Sentiment in oil has killed off investment and will continue to kill it off further. The longer sentiment and the oil price stays low, the better it is for the companies that are left, the ones that will survive this environment and take the majority of the market. The lack of sentiment and investment will kill off new entrants allowing the ones already in to consolidate. The cure to low prices, is low prices.  

Yes it might be early which would be the same as being wrong but I don't think its too early to be buying personally, I am content to take the hit in the short term and just keep buying all the way through. Sure the market might crash next month, if you think so then sell everything and buy back next month. The trouble is the crash in October might not happen, and if it does happen it might not happen in October. It might be in one sector of the market (tech) and not take down value stocks that are already hammered, or it might take the whole lot with it. Who knows! I think it likely we will see a crash but I don't know when and I don't know from which level, so I am buying now bits a time. 
I am concerned that you say a serious investment should be all eggs in one basket, this is in my opinion not a good idea unless you are extremely confident on something or are insider trading, otherwise it will likely end in tears. Better to be diversified into many areas you like and some you don't, and then if you are wrong in one place your loss might be covered by where you are right. There is a saying that if you are not losing money somewhere then you are not properly diversified and if you are losing money everywhere the same applies and shouldn't come as a surprise.
Peter lynch is backwards looking at supply just like everyone else, trust me they ain't pumping 12 million barrels a day now, you don't have to take my word for it. A year ago rig count was 900+ now its 254. The oil crash has killed production and the lack of new activity with these oil prices will kill it further. Sentiment in oil has killed off investment and will continue to kill it off further. The longer sentiment and the oil price stays low, the better it is for the companies that are left, the ones that will survive this environment and take the majority of the market. The lack of sentiment and investment will kill off new entrants allowing the ones already in to consolidate. The cure to low prices, is low prices.  

When I see videos like this it makes me want to buy more. 
He doesn't like dividends. He doesn't understand dividends. He thinks trading capital growth for dividend income is wrong.
He doesn't know what oil is. He thinks BP and Shell should "improve the quality of oil" they produce. 
He mentions these stocks are at 20 year lows and that this is bad, very bad. He likes Tesla. 
👍

US government bonds are up quite a bit, not sure if/how that will effect PMs or stocks
Jerome Powell is set to give a speech Thursday
According to CNBC
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak Thursday during a virtual version of the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming, conference. He is expected to outline what could be the central bank’s most active efforts ever to spur inflation back to a healthy level. “Average inflation” targeting means the Fed will allow inflation to run higher than normal for a period of time. The effort will be the reverse of former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker’s rate hikes instituted to quash inflation in the 1980s. It will probably be lot of hot air but it's bound to spike some stuff one way or the other temporarily
I was bullish but gold and silver look on the edge of a cliff about to slope off instead of burst upwards 
 

Let's keep things civil, we all have different opinions, but a common cause.
 
I went for a walk yesterday and I was surprised how many houses have sold. Combination I think of being cooped up at home for 3 months, no stamp duty, time to move as furlough is still on & a delay in the market peak buying season, leading to a sudden rush. 

All gonna stall after furlough i think Oct time. They will be kicking themselves in 3-4 years when/if property prices plummet. 

On topic. I purchase £400 of shell & bp yesterday in the second low dips around 1pm. Happy with that. Almost as cheap as March!!!!
Either I am making a colossal mistake here, or this is a deal of a lifetime. Cant decide 😛

Dollar looks like it's going to come up and test some resistances in the next week
If it fails at 94 then we shouldn't see too much of a fall off for pms
If it gets past 94 and up to the ones at  95 and 96 which would probably play out over weeks instead then yes everyone saying $1700 will probably be right
My guess is 94 holding as resistance, dollar starting a new leg down, PMs starting a new leg up

MMT certainly wont save us.  Its proponents are socialists that dont see a problem controlling inflation through tax, as they love to tax everything anyway. 
 

Your last comment is the right perspective, look long term. You bought them cheap, can they get cheaper - Yes. If you are not selling why do you care? If you are still buying why is it not "great shell is plummeting! Now I can buy more shares for less money"? 
You should not care about the share price if the company has not changed. That was the red flag yesterday, now the bold highlighted today is another red flag, this focus on the share price suggests you are speculating on the shares and not investing in the company. 
Has anything fundamentally changed about the company the reason for investing in Shell? 

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4370008-coming-inflation-boom-is-going-to-catch-lot-of-people-off-guard
If you want some encouragement instead read this one 
Low prices are the cure to low prices

Too big to fail certainly applies to the largest US banks. They are "system-relevant." That's why I choose JP Morgan.
HSBC is losing and will likely lose more money in their asian markets. At £1.50 and lower I will consider buying. But they need to do some serious restructuring to get into decent profit area. I do not like their dividend covers:
https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/hsbc-holdings-plc-ordinary-usd0.50
2019: 1.00 (they paid out all of their profits! non-sequitur)
2017: 0.94
2016: 0.14
Ridiculous dividend policy of theirs - borrowing money to pay the shareholders. WTH?  As a comparison, JP Morgan has a dividend cover of 3.0 for every year. These are much more healthy numbers.
 

it's a bit hard to call it a triangle considering there is only a top, a pullback and then something
that might not be finished. the palladium chart looks more defined and could possibly play out
as a triangle.
 
HH