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KDave

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KDave last won the day on September 25

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About KDave

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  1. Agreed it is wishful or hopeful thinking for WTO I doubt it will happen. I am not delusional though to think politicians have the long term interests of the country in mind, it will be the short term that drives their decision today. I don't trust Boris or any of them.
  2. We will see in hindsight if this was about grinding the public down to accept may's deal if it goes through today, or whether like you say he is playing a good game to get us out. I'm hoping turkeys vote for Christmas and the remainer parliament makes the mistake of not allowing the deal through, leaving only WTO for end of the month. It's going to be close either way I think.
  3. Mark Carney has endorsed the deal that's how you know we are being shafted.
  4. You are right short term it will be to our and their detriment. Long term it would be very good for us and the end of them. A deal is good for us short term, very bad for us long term and great for them, short and long term. It just depends on your time preference and motivations. Recession is coming either way, it's going to be rough few years in or out, deal or WTO, we might as well get started with WTO and do our future selves a massive favour.
  5. We have bad relations with the EU already, you think because we agree to their demands now they will then negotiate on a temporary basis? I doubt this will ever be over unless it ends in WTO. Outside the EU we can negotiate in a position of strength, without the leverage they are trying to maintain over us with the articles within this treaty and use our leverage of the immense trade imbalance we have with them to our advantage. The fear mongering of crashing out has blinded people to the economic reality and the machiavellian nature of politics. Do you honestly think we can negotiate control of anything we concede now once the option of no deal has gone?
  6. Aye I keep hearing about this second referendum again all of a sudden. "We think the public should be asked, do you want to leave with this deal, or remain in the EU" - some labour MP. They are delusional if they think people will go for that.
  7. Ideology. Self preservation. Control. The drive behind all recent activity of the EU is the desire to create a European superstate, complete with equalisation of taxes, tariffs, regulations, laws and policing and military forces across all member states. The deal will ensure we remain a part of that in aspects of taxes, regulations and law while we still have absolutely no say, as we never really did even as a member.
  8. People still think we can actually leave with a deal. We can't. Think of it as a treaty. We have a political treaty with the EU. Politicians are trying to generate a new treaty when they should be ripping it up. The EU has more to lose than us by a very long way, if we left no deal the various countries would be on the phone immediately trying to arrange trade deals just as Germany did the day after the referendum. The EU as an organisation would be finished both financially and politically.
  9. I don't think there is a deal that both sides would agree to. The EU want to control too much of what we do. In return they want us to pay 39 billion sterling. I don't see how this is a deal, its a surrender for the sake of political expediency. There is no such thing as no deal, crashing out, ect - it is WTO terms like many nations around the world. We have wasted 3 and a half years of time, tax payers money and done damage to our political and legal systems that will require radical reform to correct - all for nothing if the deal is approved. We literally gain nothing from it, it is EU lite with a big price tag.
  10. To start with control of fisheries, none of this level playing field nonsense on trade and VAT, and pay the EU nothing. This is exactly the same as May's surrender treaty rehashed without the backstop and a couple of small changes the bulk of it is still there. It makes us a vassal state rule taker and we are paying for the privilege. WTO is the best way, retake everything from the EU pay them nothing and start from a position of strength in the trade negotiations. This deal puts us under the EU without a say, it is not possible to call this leaving the EU.
  11. A very bad sign. They want the deal I am not surprised. We are being completely sold out.
  12. This is may's deal without the backstop, it is not brexit. Either Boris has betrayed us or he is bringing back this deal because he knows it will be voted down. What worries me is both Boris and mogg voted for may's deal on the third run, the first two times they said no. They are worrying me that wills have broken, and they have sold out.
  13. Consider the number of people who have bought houses in the last 5 years on government help to buy. If interest rates hit near double digits in a few years those are the people that will be bearing the cost of 2008. Consider the sleep easy portfolio of someone invested in dollar denominated bonds, perhaps of someone just entering retirement. That will be worthless in a few years. A lot of people will be wiped out. Like I say, its a reset event. Perhaps this won't happen and the FED saves the day, lets hope so.
  14. Yes the businesses that will be going under need to be going under, over leveraged, addicted to debt, a few would have gone under already if not for cheap debt, TC was one - but it will lead to problems nether the less. A lot of TC employees are now not spending on whatever they were spending on before, which in turn has knock on effects on those businesses and so on. The zombies need to go out of business, bad debt and business needs to be cleared out but it will come at a cost. All the FED did in 2008 was delay the inevitable, it is attempting to do so again and will fail imo.
  15. That is a good way of thinking about, the flow of currency is like the river that drives the mill, it is not GDP itself but it facilitates the activity. You can't produce much flour when the river is dry. The FED has reduced the flow over the last 18 months to the point now that businesses can't refinance or borrow from the banks, this has dire consequences seen in the recent bankruptcies (TC), and failures to raise capital that is stalling economic ventures (there is a thread here about a mine failing to raise capital for example). Officially we don't declare a recession until we see two quarters of economic decline. If the printing starts two quarters in to a recession to facilitate business and trade, by then the damage is already long done. Hence why the FED are printing now - they think that by printing ahead of the curve then can stave off recession, the issue I see is that there appears to be a lag between tightening and its effects on the market, and in turn there will likely be a lag between printing and getting those funds to where they need to be - hence why recession is inevitable. I am expecting then that they will then panic and ramp up the printing further.