Kman

4 hours ago, sixgun said:

There is so much cash swirling around.

Did you read my earlier post with the charts? you can see what happens when theres ample liquidity pre financial crisis and what happens when theres not post

If no financial crisis China wouldnt care about a new reserve currency because they would still be growing exponentially

How can March 2020 happen, a liquidity crisis, if theres so much cash?

2 hours ago, Cornishfarmer said:

Ive posted about food inflation a few times,  as said before the government need cheap food to keep the masses happy.    Next year will be a shock for everyone food inflation will be high and some things won’t be available 

2 big things fertiliser gone from £200 last year to £475 this if you can get it. Tens of thousands of acres of grain won’t be planted this year.     Added to this the government’s green revolution whereby they are paying for wild flowers and bird seed mixes are taking as much out the system also.   So Britain will have to get used to having some pretty flowers and some nice birds but bread will be short. 
government are too blind to see what’s happening but this time next year food will be a struggle  

Tell me if this is wrong

"Food prices are likely to soar next year after record-high gas prices forced fertiliser manufacturers to halt production, experts have warned."

Are current gas prices anything to do with too much currency?

Are high shipping container costs  anything to do with too much currency? Or is it shutting things down with lockdowns and expecting to reopen like nothing happened

Kdave talked about it a lot with oil to his credit but it seems to have caused problems with a lot more

39 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Sorry - you are deceiving yourself. You clearly don't understand Fed QE is bank reserves. Anything you see going up is transitory supply side fluctuations and they will settle down pretty quickly. The $trillions being pushed out as stimmies, furlough, bail outs etc - these are minor ripples on the pond - it's transitory - Jay Powell called me last night and told me so. 

Arent a lot of covid schemes in the UK coming to an end now? furlough, seiss etc; Ive seen a lot of people unhappy on twitter over £20 being cut from universal credit

Ive not kept up to date with the US stuff but just checking I see the US supreme court has overruled a ban on evictions and also covid unemployed benefits have been stopped September 6th

So yes seems like a lot of help is coming to end, but thats ok because im sure everyone will be employed and wanting to spend spend spend right? and it will be a very hot economy leading to some very inflationary conditions 🥵

Or is it people tend to focus on what governments and central banks are doing too much and not whats missing and why theyre having to do anything in the first place, hint: its not because things are going well and conditions are inflationary

This picture just says it all

Where would consumer and business debt be no financial crisis? theres missing trillions that would would have been created otherwise

You can see the same for business, for imports, to countries GDP

Look at Chinas GDP, from growing 14% in 2007 to, by their standards, barely growing at 6% in 2019, why the slow down?? a decade after US QE started, wow the Feds balance sheet goes up lets focus on that.. meanwhile the real world shows something is missing

Can you really look at this stuff and deny reality that its deflationary? 

You guys are obsessed with central banks and Powell, I love Jeff Snider. 

30 minutes ago, sixgun said:

Oh come on - where have you been?
A 5 second look on my Twitter feed

 know this is true b/c i look in my shopping basket - i buy stuff for a small company and see the invoices for the same things going up.

Problems with supply is nothing to do with currency though and should be transitory*

23 hours ago, sixgun said:

We have entered the inflation stage - funny how things play out.

Give me some data to back this up?

Every chart I look at tells the same tale, running hot up until 2007/8 then not so good since; We seem in a way less inflationary period than pre financial crisis, quite the opposite in fact

The more I look and learn the less I understand this fixation with inflation, seems like a made up dream by people who dont understand Fed QE is bank reserves 

21 minutes ago, sixgun said:

. The British Empire ran on the gold standard - the world was undergoing tremendous growth - not hampered by the gold standard - quite the opposite. This was a stabilising force.

Debatable but a moot point regardless

Hunter gatherer worked

Pre-iron age worked

Pre-industrial worked

Pre-internet worked 

etc etc

But things grow around new innovations and society becomes dependent on them, should they be taken away it would cause great chaos and shrinkage

2 hours ago, sixgun said:

If the US had kept out of wars and other follies, as well as acting like it did before 1913, then the dollar would never have been called into question.

The US had to lend dollars to Europe to rebuild after WW2

Offshore unregulated currency where a free market could decide how best to do things is always going to come up with a better system than a stuffy government

By the 70s the US didnt even know how many dollars there were so how could they still accept them for gold

The Eurodollar / repomarket became an amazing tool for economic growth, if you view currency like oil then the more you have of it the more energy to get things done, if you have a limited supply then you cap growth

Look at the rise of China with the eurodollar and then how it stalled since 2007/8

I think where you and others get it wrong is you think money = has to be a store of value, but what about its role as a tool? that is more important to the global ecomony, growth and trade; its aspect as a tool that is its value

If you have a gold standard then you gain a store of value but lose its value as a tool

7 hours ago, sixgun said:

if the Chinese said we are backing the yuan with gold and we are revaluing that gold. The USD would disintegrate the same morning. It would turn the world on its head. The current powers will fight and fight against the metals - they have to or their system evaporates. If you do not grasp that, none of what i say or what some others say can make any sense.

So many reasons this is fantasy

China are known to manipulate their own currency to be favourable to them

Why would any government want to tie their hands with a gold standard?

The world runs on the repo market and eurodollar system, liquidity being king; how liquid is a gold standard? wouldnt  it be devastatingly deflationary 

How much global debt is there that needs to be paid in dollars? not gold yuan, dollars

If no more eurodollar system no more needs for treasuries as collateral, governments would be totally f**cked no? its impossible to pay off the debt you need to issue more, how would that work on a gold standard, who is going to forgive these debts?

Its like saying we could all switch to green energy tomorrow and leave fossil fuels behind, you need to ignore all the realities of the world to think thats possible

https://news.sky.com/story/south-london-councils-burn-recycling-waste-as-hgv-driver-shortage-disrupts-bin-collections-12404763

The farm to fork supply chain - which transports local, high quality, organic and seasonal produce - was missing around half a million of the four million people that usually worked in the sector, according to Mr Wright.

7 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

either dodging the question or ignorant of the implication.

holding above the 200dma means that the dollar is not currently weak.

(which is what kman stated).

 

Ohhh thats your game, youre being wilfully ignorant or dont understand context

For context, getting positive momentum at 93 looks strong, which I shouldnt need to mention for you to understand

But yes if the 200 came under at 73 highlighted yes that wouldnt be so strong

20 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

others are wrong and our analysis are all wrong? the CPI is correct? We must be all dreaming?

To what extent do you think rising prices could be due to supply/demand issue rather than a currency issue?

Inflation you would think is too much currency chasing too few good/services

But if theres too few goods/services because of a supply issue (lockdowns) then it should be transitory (assuming supply returns) because it has nothing to do with the currency supply

You can look at lumber which really shot up to ridiculous levels but has cooled off a lot now 

24 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

a strong dollar does not mean there is no inflation.

What

Monetary inflation means general price inflation because of an oversupply of currency

If your currency is strong that represents demand and so there cant be too much of it.. and you can import for less so general prices arent going to rise are they

37 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

do you actually understand what the above statement means?

It means the momentum is positive 

Especially when the 50/100/200 are under in correct alignment

Do you need any more help? 

52 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

Who told you that, the Fed?

Rehashing the same old tired conversations, this is a silver monitoring thread

But no I dont think the world revolves around the Fed, it revolves around the repomarket and eurodollars

It revolves staggering debt needing to be repaid in dollars, global trade in dollars, great demand for: dollars

Also great demand for US debt, US treasuries as collateral to unlock liquidity aka dollars

The system is set up to need dollars so how can they ever be worthless, just a total lack of understanding about how it works

You believe the Fed PR that theyre all powerful, not me. 

This is from Friday but I can be bothered to do a new screenshot

This line breaking is bad, bearish

On the flip side the dollar is looking good with all its moving averages back in line, above its 200dma

The best the dollar has looked in the past 14 months or so

The dollar being in trouble is pure fantasy

This line being broken is negative

Losing the 200dma around the start of August is negative

It looks as though sub $20 is far more likely next than $30+, which if you like to buy silver is positive 

19 hours ago, Roy said:

I miss @Kman

Oh, he's blocked me...can someone else tag him please?

Not blocked 

I dont want to support the forum anymore by providing content

On 17/04/2021 at 12:43, Bumble said:

M1 and M2 are meaningless

"money creation has never been this strong" 🤥 Is it dollars or is it banks reserves 

6 hours ago, AndrewSL76 said:

The 10oz is at £310 from the £180 start. Not a lot of interest so far, it seems. 
 

Title makes it seem like you're bidding on a box and coa, no coin

I posted a while ago I was short-term negative on gold until it broke out of this downward channel, looks like its threatening to

If it does I will change my Kman rating from negative to neutral 

If it can establish back above the 200 day moving average which is about 6% away I will turn to positive 

1 hour ago, Bumble said:

From Katusa Research:

 

Is that April to April? seems a bit misleading since things were coming off March lows 

If you look at the past decade crude oil is relatively low and that's with suppressed production, that graphic showing 182% makes it look bullish

They would need to have something impressively unique for me to have had any interest

A real one off: special portrait or alternative G&D

A little cypher, no. 

plain edge, no.

matte finish, no.

For the past 6 months this has been a good area to buy, will it remain so? if the 200 dma holds maybe, if not its looking more negative 

On the opposite side of things DXY is just getting over the 200 DMA on the daily for the first time since June 2020

23 minutes ago, westminstrel said:

Yes @Kman- the tradition of picking a day in summer goes back to George II who wanted to celebrate his birthday in good weather since he was born in the autumn. 😊

The point I was making was that the RM had picked different days in 2016 and 2021 for their strike on the day Sovereigns. 

I'm confused

You mean how do they choose between SoTD for her real or state birthday? and why different years does it change

Queen has two birthdays

I always thought one was her actual birthday and the other was the day of her coronation but after googling this is not the case, apparently there's just two because they pick a day in summer that will be nice for a parade

With prices up shouldn't production be getting going to match?

Why in the US is production still low, just a lag in getting things started up again? - https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

How have they managed to build up a inventory of 21mb when it was suppose to be -1mb - https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/eia-crude-oil-inventories-75

It seems like low production, low demand, high oil price?

gasoline looks a lot better - https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/gasoline-inventories-485

I dont know how much the cold snap in Texas effected these things

Chinas oil storage is close to reaching capacity - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-26/china-s-oil-reserves-are-close-to-reaching-storage-capacity

All that being said oil stocks and oil are at an important area where they will either be rejected or continue upwards, it seems like prices have been front running demand/recovery since November vaccine news (unless anyone has data to show stronger demand) so why can't that continue 

Green stocks are falling off a bit, FAANG too, why can't oil have it's bubble  now entirely justified or not 

On 07/03/2021 at 08:23, KDave said:

I have taken some profit on oil shares as we are touching $70 now, next profit taking at $80. 

The sentiment alarm is going off to the upside, no where can I find the "oil is dead" articles I was reading last year. I keep hearing about the commodity super cycle, impending inflation, etc. Its way too bullish out there.  

If youre sensing it now the top is probably 6-12 months away