ASE sales collapse.. Are *you* still stacking?

[vand]

SB/SS's Chris Duane has an interesting new vid, showing the collapse of ASE sales.

It seems silver has now been abandoned as previous investors/stackers chases everything else that is going up.

These are classic contrarian market bottoming signs.

 

 

[jayboat]

Hell yeah!!!! Im still stacking.

Sales have been dropping a low timebut on the other side of the coin if you think about it, these will be the years that are good to buy because of low mintage's assuming the eagle is a good indicator. 

Actually watched that video bout 2 hours ago  

 

[sixgun]

This is an issue with the US retail market. i don't think it is found outside North America. 

To my knowledge, the stash of silver JPMorgan accumulated was principally ASE's and they have stopped accumulating, which may well account for much of the decline. JPM has denied the silver is theirs. It is speculated the silver is for China or the US treasury. i suspect it more likely it is the US Treasury. They are buying their own silver.

[Scuzzle]

I watched a couple of Youtube videos that had a theory that it was JP Morgan that were buying all of these and they had to dial it back because of imminent supply issues, not sure how valid it was, you know how many silver pumpers have their take on things.

[Clens92]

I struggle to take Chris Duane seriously; he's really shot his credibility with all his "to the moon" pumping.

I'm not stacking silver at the moment... I could sell my stack and make a nice profit, but I couldn't sell for profit at current prices and feel as if other investments are growing far more quickly.

For example: The stock market is booming right now; ISAs are far more tax efficient and a very good investment tool in the current climate.

[sixgun]

33 minutes ago, Scuzzle said:

I watched a couple of Youtube videos that had a theory that it was JP Morgan that were buying all of these and they had to dial it back because of imminent supply issues, not sure how valid it was, you know how many silver pumpers have their take on things.

1

Yes the silver JPM accumulated appears to have been primarily ASE's. They deny this silver is theirs. China has been proposed as the ultimate buying but i suspect the silver is the US Treasury's and they have been buying their own production. 

[KDave]

With everything else seeing higher highs and metals struggling it does look like another contrarian signal, but I am still bearish on the metal; the industrial demand support is falling away and physical investment demand was cut in half last year, I don't expect a rapid turn around in the trend on either side so quickly. I doubt mass investor demand for physical silver will return unless we see those lower prices again. Every other market is putting the metals to shame and CB action is making the metals look less and less attractive. Cryptos are stealing much of the wide speculative market base that used to buy silver too imo. All just opinion on the short term.

Longer term I can't see a problem given the deficits and I am still buying, only a few ounces a month at the moment, certainly nothing like 2015, but that is more to do with circumstance than choice. I know a lot of chaps here were filling boots back then too. It is interesting to note that 2015 was the peak in physical buying around the world, so contrarian we were not!

[Pipers]

P metals are in a technical bear still it's just in the UK our £ is just weak.  Having said that if you are in for the long term then buy the dips but do not be surprised if gold goes down to £750toz if the £ recovers.  I am always very cautious of anyone who states gold/ silver goes up great time to buy gold/silver goes down great time to buy gold silver flat / great time to buy get in quick!.

[Gav]

This is an issue with the US retail market. i don't think it is found outside North America. 
To my knowledge, the stash of silver JPMorgan accumulated was principally ASE's and they have stopped accumulating, which may well account for much of the decline. JPM has denied the silver is theirs. It is speculated the silver is for China or the US treasury. i suspect it more likely it is the US Treasury. They are buying their own silver.

Hey just to add to the JP Morgan stacking silver. They are still adding to their positions. I track this pretty regularly. Search for CME silver inventory, one of the top search results will be a spreadsheet from the CME with the daily changes.

I have been watching them go from 90 million oz to 120 million. That is a gain of more than what some mines mine in their whole lifetime. So I'm not sure JP is slowing down.

[vand]

Chris Duane is a pumper, no doubt about it, and we should all be wary of what he says.

OTOH I do believe that this represents the current sentiment and that much of the "mom & pop" investors have abandoned PMs, taken their losses, and have poured it into the cryptos.

 

On a personal level I'm still stacking, but I have to admit that I think silver should be much higher given the recent USD weakness, and therefore is going to take another big whack down on the next USD rally, which could be starting any time now. I'm also going to switch primarily to stacking gold when the GSR moderates below 70, as I feel that I am holding a lot of silver already.

[jacksj1]

Every community I follow - not just PM or even investors - people are talking about putting money into cryptos all of a sudden. Investors are selling out of physical assets like PMs to buy into them.

[Scuzzle]

7 minutes ago, jacksj1 said:

Every community I follow - not just PM or even investors - people are talking about putting money into cryptos all of a sudden. Investors are selling out of physical assets like PMs to buy into them.

Be interesting to see what happens in a real crisis, where will the money flood to?, something that has been a sore of wealth for thousands of years or something that has been around for a decade.   It's also interesting that JP Morgan are being allowed to do what they are doing considering the Hunt Brothers were stopped with half the silver JP Morgan has.

I must admit I have been getting into cryptos myself lately instead of silver but if I see profit then I will withdraw it and put it into silver, it's hard to take all the crypto pundits seriously on Youtube as most of them are really baby faced and look like they never saw the Dot Com bubble.

[Gav]

....  It's also interesting that JP Morgan are being allowed to do what they are doing considering the Hunt Brothers were stopped with half the silver JP Morgan has.

The hunt brothers didn't have the same political friends as JP Morgan does.

If your friends are the law makers then there is no need to worry about the law.

What is interesting about the hunt brothers is that they took the price to much higher levels than 2011 and they did it with much less money in a time when there were huge strategic stockpiles of silver.

[Pete]

It wasn't that long ago when silver was more than double its current price and was in great demand to protect wealth allegedly.
Now trying to look back when it was at it highs, why was the metal in such great demand ?
Were we stackers behaving like Del-Boy, trying to make a fast buck, or were we more likely SHEEP following the herd ?? !!

What has REALLY changed in the global economy to make the metal crash - I can always find and fit excuses or global events ( AFTER THE EVENT ) but look into real fundamentals and it is harder to reconcile.

In investment terms, advisers tell you to take a long-term view, typically 10 years so we are still midway in this cycle.

If you believed in your convictions in the past and were piling into silver at £20-£30 per ounce ( guilty ! ) then surely the bargains to be had today cannot be overlooked.
If however your tea-leaves tell you that you were a total plonker, then sit tight and don't accumulate any more, getting out when you reach breakeven and invest in something else. As for the metal itself it is a finite resource with a cost of production that is unlikely to decrease and it's uniqueness in many industrial and medical applications means it will not be substituted. If it becomes too expensive then of course people will find other solutions but right now it does appear cheap and the gold ratio being so high suggests silver is cheap rather than gold over priced.

 

[vand]

17 minutes ago, Pete said:

It wasn't that long ago when silver was more than double its current price and was in great demand to protect wealth allegedly.
Now trying to look back when it was at it highs, why was the metal in such great demand ?
Were we stackers behaving like Del-Boy, trying to make a fast buck, or were we more likely SHEEP following the herd ?? !!

What has REALLY changed in the global economy to make the metal crash - I can always find and fit excuses or global events ( AFTER THE EVENT ) but look into real fundamentals and it is harder to reconcile.

In investment terms, advisers tell you to take a long-term view, typically 10 years so we are still midway in this cycle.

If you believed in your convictions in the past and were piling into silver at £20-£30 per ounce ( guilty ! ) then surely the bargains to be had today cannot be overlooked.
If however your tea-leaves tell you that you were a total plonker, then sit tight and don't accumulate any more, getting out when you reach breakeven and invest in something else. As for the metal itself it is a finite resource with a cost of production that is unlikely to decrease and it's uniqueness in many industrial and medical applications means it will not be substituted. If it becomes too expensive then of course people will find other solutions but right now it does appear cheap and the gold ratio being so high suggests silver is cheap rather than gold over priced.

 

It is an unfortunate truth that the greatest barriers to successful investing are not one's choice of investment vehicle but one's mindset which is are very things that make us all human; impatience, fear & greed.

 

"Get out when you break even again" is the worst investment strategy in the world.

[vand]

3 hours ago, jacksj1 said:

Every community I follow - not just PM or even investors - people are talking about putting money into cryptos all of a sudden. Investors are selling out of physical assets like PMs to buy into them.

 

So we have paper assets, hard assets, and now virtual assets. I blame World of Warcraft. 

[ApisMellifera]

I also think Chris Duane is a pumper and a typical sales hyper, he really wants folks to buy his coins... so he is not really on my radar for that reason. I'm liking these PM price dips. I still think that there are too many factors that keeps the price of the silver price to stay down. (it's not just JPM that keeps it down). I do like the lower price entry for silver but my priorities to get gold at the end of the day (for me, I really don't like the milk spots!), I was aiming to get silver to converting them to gold over time but I'm thinking to get just gold to save the hassle of converting.

I personally think silver price will go up toward the $17.00 - 17.50 price range and expect sell orders to be triggered for another dip. (but as always you never know...)

Yep also am currently speculating/trading in crypto's but only with small amounts of fiats but am def not selling any of my PMs for trading.

[Gav]

There is a guy on YouTube that does a great job explaining the technical analysis that is very useful. Check out igold advisor on YouTube. It might be boring for those that don't trade on a regular basis, but well worth checking out before planning a big purchase.

He has a good track record and good at identifying breakouts, floors and ceilings.

Since the flash crash that happened recently, there is a good chance that silver will need to retest $14.90 in the up coming months, before it can breakout past the $18.50 ceiling.

[Pete]

10 hours ago, vand said:

"Get out when you break even again" is the worst investment strategy in the world.

Sorry to disagree - sometimes you have to cut your losses and save what you can before the ship sinks to the bottom and you loose the lot.

[vand]

20 minutes ago, Pete said:

Sorry to disagree - sometimes you have to cut your losses and save what you can before the ship sinks to the bottom and you loose the lot.

If you don't think your investment is a good one then you should dump it, regardless whether you are up or down.

Waiting to "get out at evens" reflects psychology of not being able to take a loss. This ensures that you hold on lall the way down and are usually the mug who ends up dumping right at the bottom. 

[tbone]

Although I think he's simply trying to sell his coins, I will give him credit for not jumping on the crypto bandwagon.  Many of the so-called truthers or real money crowd on Youtube are now poo-pooing silver (and gold) for bitcoin.  Nothing has changed with silver, its just much easier to pretend you're smart and savvy when you're promoting something that's hot and increasing in price.  Chris has a much harder job imo.  He made a video recently showing bitcoin as a bubble.  Like it or not, it was funny.  He does put out some interesting videos.

So, more power to him.  Keeps the vids coming Chris!

[sixgun]

10 minutes ago, tbone said:

Although I think he's simply trying to sell his coins, I will give him credit for not jumping on the crypto bandwagon.  Many of the so-called truthers or real money crowd on Youtube are now poo-pooing silver (and gold) for bitcoin.  Nothing has changed with silver, its just much easier to pretend you're smart and savvy when you're promoting something that's hot and increasing in price.  Chris has a much harder job imo.  He made a video recently showing bitcoin as a bubble.  Like it or not, it was funny.  He does put out some interesting videos.

So, more power to him.  Keeps the vids coming Chris!

if you knocked on every door in your street and asked people if they have heard of cryptocurrencies i suspect the majority would not know what you were talking about. Something the majority have not heard of cannot reasonably be defined as in a bubble. Chris Duane has one opinion, his own and that is only one opinion. The strengths of the various cryptocurrencies do not detract from precious metals. They both have their places and it is deluded or disingenuous to say they don't. If someone is promoting one and knocking the other they are ignorant or dishonest. 

 

[tbone]

43 minutes ago, sixgun said:

They both have their places and it is deluded or disingenuous to say they don't. If someone is promoting one and knocking the other they are ignorant or dishonest. 

I think thats a matter of opinion really.  I can be anti-crypto and pro-PMs or vice-versa and I don't see that's being ignorant or dishonest.  Its just my opinion.  In the case of Chris, for what its worth I do think he does believe what he says. 

[sovereignsteve]

6 hours ago, vand said:

If you don't think your investment is a good one then you should dump it, regardless whether you are up or down.

Spot on.

Every investment has a current price. If one of your investments isn't performing how you thought it would, it should be sold and the money spent on something you think will go up.

Hanging on to a losing investment, waiting to exit at break even, generally means you will miss better investment opportunities along the way.

[sixgun]

9 hours ago, tbone said:

I think thats a matter of opinion really.  I can be anti-crypto and pro-PMs or vice-versa and I don't see that's being ignorant or dishonest.  Its just my opinion.  In the case of Chris, for what its worth I do think he does believe what he says. 

i have dealt with Chris Duane through his private forum and i am sure he does believe what he is saying. He has strong opinions but that does not mean his opinions are well informed [opinions originating out of ignorance]. 

i am a gold and silver bug as most of us must be to be here at all. At one point i imagined we would use gold and silver as a means of exchange. We might use them to a limited extent when the fiat currency system collapses but is this method going to be practical? If silver went to £100/oz how would one buy a loaf of bread and a carton of milk from the local shop? Clip a bit of silver off a Freedom Girl medallion? This won't work. If the people don't create something for themselves the powers that should not be will present us with something worse than we have now.