Matched betting, Bonus bagging, Arbing, gubbing & Bookie Bashing

[Paul]

If the title is totally double-dutch to you please ignore this thread.  

But I'm just curious if we have anyone here on board who partakes in beating the bookies at their own game, who are secret stackers as well  

For the savvy folk out there who know when 'betting' is actually not betting in its traditional sense and there is actually guaranteed risk free money to be made using bookie bonuses, in play matched bets, arbing, sharbing, dutching, hedging, utilising bonuses, sign up offers, free bets etc.  Using them to make a profit regardless of event outcome.

Got to be on point with your figures, accounting and concern for accuracy but it is sure an awesome way to make an extra income stream, especially like myself if you work from home 

Not sure if it worthy of a thread here or if we have have any interest but it has certainly made me cash over the years

If there is any interest reply below.  If no reply in the next few days mods feel free to lock or delete thread

[watchesandwhisky]

I have not done anything like that, but I am a profitable poker player (just play for fun really but it gets me the odd extra ounce:) 

I do find it interesting you can do that though, I guess the bookies know in many cases people will spend extra? can it all be done online?

[HelpingHands]

I have done a fair bit arbing but then got barred from a few of the majors.

I used the scalpulator to work out the exact return which sometimes meant betting amounts like £173.64 which was a flag to the bookies.  If I had staked £175 in that example instead it would not have been as obvious.

Putting very large amounts on unusual sports was another flag eg. Half-time result in women's basketball.

The major problem I had though was when a bookie cancelled my bet without contacting me.  I noticed before the lower league Belgian football match started and they said the odds were wrong.  I had to quickly cover the bet elsewhere.  Most have t&cs that they can cancel bets with mistaken odds.  This one wasn't too far out 2-1 instead of 6-4 (ish) but if it looks too good then it's likely a mistake which they may cancel.

The other issue is you need a large bankroll and you have to know that all you're bets will be accepted before you place the first one.  If you place one bet and it means you've exceeded the max bet on another site then you're a bit stuffed.

From experience there are many things that can go wrong.

[daz]

I did make a decent profit a few years ago with all the sign up bonuses but obviuosly you can only do this once, I did it while the world cup was on so had plenty of chances to place bets within a couple of weeks and there was some good offers . For this that haven't done it the euros next year would be a excellent time to do it

[Scuzzle]

I have a good system for my Saturday Football coupon, I use Betfreds Bonus Goals Galore coupon and pick 4x teams BTTS, which pays 9/1 so £20 which is what I usually put on gets back £200.  They actually banned me from their online site because I was winning too often, I get one up on average every 2nd week so now I print off the coupon online, make my selections and place it in their shop.

Here's how it works.

Firstly you print the coupon off. https://betfred.mobi/goals-galore/bonus-list-coupon  None of their games are individually priced up so now you go to another bookies site like Sky Bet or WIlliam Hills where they are priced up individually and you start writing on only the odds on shots for BTTS, 4/6 on, 8/11 on sometimes you will even get a 4/7 and I have even seen the odd 1/2.  These are the games the bookies think are more likely for BTTS so you just take these and ignore the even money games and the 10/11, 11/10 etc.

Now you are left with around 20 or so games and now you go to a site called Predicz which has past techincal data and scores predictions.  http://www.predictz.com/

Now you start allocating a points system to your games, if they think BTTS will score thats a point, you look at the last 5 times the teams have met and if it's more BTTS than not thats a point, now you look at both teams last 5 games and if they usually score rather than draw a blank then that's a point also. 

After you have done this you tot up the points and this should give you your 4x games selected and that's what goes on your coupon, obviously if your gut overrules any they you can swap anything out.  Try and make them all 3 o'clock kick offs or later avoid the early kick offs and you can have a Sunday game as now it's all about laying off risk.  You now watch the Saturday results show and do your coupon like a bingo card circling teams when they score, when it gets to the last 15 minutes of the game and you only need one you can go on Betfair and back the team not to get a goal to get your stake back. Sometimes you get your line up before half time and you can just enjoy the rest of the afternoon.  Occasionally you will be miles away but not very often, you would be surprised how often this comes up or you end up one away but the lay off on Betfair covers this.

 

I hope this makes sense, I used to do the standard fixed odds and some weeks your team was 2-0 down with a man sent off in the first 20 minutes so your line is fit for the bin, with BTTS you can be 7-0 down and still just need one goal all the way to the 93rd minute so you get more entertainment out of it.  

[Paul]

Ah well, we do have some secret scalpers and value finders out there

we may have the makings of a good thread ongoing here

[sovereignsteve]

I did a lot of match betting a few years ago when bonuses were worth having. I probably started around 2008 and did it for about 3 -4 years. I missed the very lucrative early days when people on the Rpoints and MSE forums were raking it in. See if you can still find a thread on MSE by Donglemouse.

It could get quite addictive; you can stuff the thrill of gambling. it's far better to know you can't lose and that you're raking in money from the bookies. I guess it takes a certain kind of mentality.

Arbing is pretty much a short term activity, unless you can get away with using several accounts with the same bookies, but that's probably illegal and you can lose a packet if any of your bets get cancelled (always the winning side of the match!), or your account gets killed with loss of your "winnings".

In general though, the bookies are continually looking to spot punters who are savvy and take money from them. You don't necessarily have to be a winner, just have a betting pattern that sets you apart from their preffered "mug" punters. They'll soon limit your stakes and eventually ban you.

You used to be able to get decent and worthwhile account opening bonuses with the major UK bookies eg £250 and regular re-loads and offers but they are pretty crap these days. It became too popular and mainstream, these guys aren't mugs.

I drifted in to US-facing offshore books but these can be pretty dodgy with firms going bust taking players accounts with them. For a while though, the bonuses and regular re-loads eg matched 100% bonuses up to $1000 or more made it worthwhile and I cleaned up for a couple of years. Gradually it changed and I got limited and banned from book after book, until it became not worth bothering.

However, over the course of the 3-4 years I probably made about £10k a year and of course, some of that gone in to PMs

 

[HighlandTiger]

As an ex-bookie myself, and someone who was making small amounts of profit on Betfair when it first started, until the fees changed. Which cut the edge to almost nothing. Betfair themselves DO NOT want regular winners, hence the upping of the fees, Winners take money out of the business, losers keep circulating the money until it all flows back to the company.

Whilst I understand that there are many people that think they can beat the bookies, I'm sorry but they are deluding themselves.

I challenge anyone to take the yearly test for 2016, and then come back to me and tell me how much they won on gambling.

For 2016, make up a simple spreadsheet, In one column put down every penny you spend on gambling. (That's all forms of gambling, Horses, football, sports betting, X factor, poker, slots, fruit machines, Lottery, scratchcards etc), and in the next column put down all the winnings you withdrew from your gambling website account, or back in your pocket when you walked out of the shop, bookies, or pub.

I think many of you will be surprised just how much you actually lost in a year through gambling.

Are you up for it, anyone prepared to take the challenge? .   

[Murph]

I used to bet a bit years ago before the internet so the only way to keep statistics was from papers and books.  The only problem was I sometimes went weeks without finding a decent bet but I had plenty of time to look for patterns and study form in between jobs when I used to just sitand get paid for doing nothing.

Independant bookies weren't happy about me winning but the local managers of the large chains didn't really care about me winning because my bets were just a drop in the ocean.  I didn't milk it though and used to use other people to put bets on and branches further afield at times.

 

Aren't most of the introductory offers a waste of time now and don't they require you to bet many times your initial stake/bonus before you can actually withdraw any winnings?

[Pipers]

3 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

As an ex-bookie myself, and someone who was making small amounts of profit on Betfair when it first started, until the fees changed. Which cut the edge to almost nothing. Betfair themselves DO NOT want regular winners, hence the upping of the fees, Winners take money out of the business, losers keep circulating the money until it all flows back to the company.

Whilst I understand that there are many people that think they can beat the bookies, I'm sorry but they are deluding themselves.

I challenge anyone to take the yearly test for 2016, and then come back to me and tell me how much they won on gambling.

For 2016, make up a simple spreadsheet, In one column put down every penny you spend on gambling. (That's all forms of gambling, Horses, football, sports betting, X factor, poker, slots, fruit machines, Lottery, scratchcards etc), and in the next column put down all the winnings you withdrew from your gambling website account, or back in your pocket when you walked out of the shop, bookies, or pub.

I think many of you will be surprised just how much you actually lost in a year through gambling.

Are you up for it, anyone prepared to take the challenge? .   

 

This is correct, Taking into account all in costs that I as a former bettor (note not gambler) the layers won't tolerate anyone winning anything more than small amounts for more than a few months, as in my case you will be politely asked to leave,refused credit, bet reduced or only SP given,  you can not bet a single win on horses (thats what my interest was).  The Layers will use clients who win regular but only small amounts as money makers, these can be very keen enthusiasts or friends and family members.

Please note I have never seen a gamblers book with all in costs eg trade papers, travel costs, books, entrance fees, stable tours etc. It would be like stacking and not taking into account delivery costs and selling costs.  

Betfair is not a good a it used to be and I would be the cost are now near industry norm. 

Poker I have played poker i do not play anymore as i am not a good player, there are some excellent players who play the long game, they will let you win for a while to give you confidence then sting you.      

[Scuzzle]

Betfair is good in the respect that you can actually wait until your horse goes in the stalls, comes out the stalls OK and gets a decent enough position before you place your bet and you can still get the same odds as you could putting it on at the bookies where you could do your money without even getting a run.

[daz]

6 hours ago, Murph said:

 

Aren't most of the introductory offers a waste of time now and don't they require you to bet many times your initial stake/bonus before you can actually withdraw any winnings?

 usually they will give you another bet up to the value of your first bet but only once it has been settled so you cant cover more than one outcome ,  some of them have restrictions on minimum odds and you dont get the stake back. you dont normally need to bet through a certain amount of times but still not great offers though

when i did it it was usually a instant matched bet with no restrictions on odds so i was making a good profit even betting on favourites as i was placing the matched bet on the same bet i was placing my cash on . if remember rightly i made about £400 over the course of the world cup , this was in 2002 -  i made most of that backing senegal to beat france.

[HighlandTiger]

Any edge the punters think they can find on a bookies, will soon be closed by the bookies, whether it be shrinking odds, changes in bonuses, or restrictions on betting.

People think that if a bookie closes your account, it's because you must be beating the bookies regularly. Sorry guys it is because bookies do not take a long view, where they know they will make a profit from you in the end, they prefer to take a short view, and restrict someone who is on a winning streak. Winning streaks do exist, it is all to do with clusters as part of Chaos theory. Close down those winning streaks before their natural conclusion and they up their profits no end.

 

 

[sovereignsteve]

Sorry @HighlandTiger

What you say is true but you have missed the point of this thread completely.

[Pipers]

1 hour ago, HighlandTiger said:

Any edge the punters think they can find on a bookies, will soon be closed by the bookies, whether it be shrinking odds, changes in bonuses, or restrictions on betting.

People think that if a bookie closes your account, it's because you must be beating the bookies regularly. Sorry guys it is because bookies do not take a long view, where they know they will make a profit from you in the end, they prefer to take a short view, and restrict someone who is on a winning streak. Winning streaks do exist, it is all to do with clusters as part of Chaos theory. Close down those winning streaks before their natural conclusion and they up their profits no end.

 

 

Yes the informed do win in clusters on the horses they do and on certain times of the year restrict the betting to those times of the year and the bettor has an edge also in the summer months there are to many races for the bookies to keep an eye on prices form properly algorithms are not relied upon otherwise why employ price setters.    

Remember some good bettors reduce bets too, purposely losing very small amounts (not me) thats what I have heard to then go and have a heavy bet somewhere else in the afternoon on the same race (send someone else in) or on the course.    

[Scuzzle]

I've had 2x massive paydays off Betfair and both were because I could not see the race and was listening to Timeform internet radio with a slight time delay.  Just for interest I used to play minimum £2 stakes and would try and turn a profit and cover my stake by laying / backing during the race.  The race where McCoy fell off his horse then remounted it was one.  He was going well so I placed my £2 bet at 2.1 decimal odds but when it got accepted it suddenly turned to 1000.  McCoy got back on, won the race and I made £2,000.

Another time i placed my £2 thinking the horse was going well and the odds changed to 800 as it had skelped a fence and looked to be going backwards, it plugged on from a mile back through really heavy ground to win and that was another £1600.  I've missed out on a couple as well when something similar has happened and I've got that exited I forgot to do my laying to guarantee a profit and they have just got touched off at the line.

So I have to laugh at these guys who go to the track with laptops so they get to lay the instant a horse falls as it does not always work out.

I always thought Betfair were cool with big winners because it's not them you are taking the money off.  At that time there was no Sportsbook just the exchange.

[sovereignsteve]

Betfair are not cool with big winners because they say it takes out liquidity from the exchange or some other bullshit. They introduced the premium charges a while ago which totally screws up the benefits of using betfair eg generally better odds and able to trade etc. Their 5% charge for winners was bad enough and made arbing non-profitable in a lot of cases.

For the match bettor, it is not really a problem; because the value odds are invariably at the bookmaker, you find you will win there long term and consequently lose at Betfair. If you'd have looked at my Betfair account, you would have thought I was a right loser.

It was similar with Pinnacle (best odds usually for most "soccer" and also good for US sports), I lost a packet with them but covered it all at the bookmaker. Similarly with Matchbook, the US-facing exchange.

WRT trading, in-play tennis and darts are real money-spinners. Back the odds-on favourite when they lose the first set. You could risk laying at the start but that's risky. The odds in darts matches vary all over the place, a goldmine for trading.

 

 

[Paul]

You have smarkets now which is emerging as a reasonable force to be reckoned with now betfair exchange is in decline.

Their fixed commission of 2% makes them a better choice now.

 

[sovereignsteve]

Is Smarkets still going. They had just started about when I stopped doing this stuff but looked to be going under at the time.

[Pipers]

Does anyone else here get a bet on the 'nod' at the horses or the dogs. I used to but most of the old on-course bookies I knew have all gone now.    

[Scuzzle]

I was talking to someone connected to a horse called Moccasin, he gave me the word on it when it won 1st time out at 33/1.  He says when I see the horse down to a mark of 102 or less and there's a 7 lbs claimer on board then to be backing it.  If any of you guys spot this or use horse tracker apps then let me know because I'm famous for missing them.  Got told to back Lie Forrit first time out and I missed it, went on to win at 100/1.

[Paul]

7 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Is Smarkets still going. They had just started about when I stopped doing this stuff but looked to be going under at the time.

Yeah - smarkets they've had a few bob thrown at them by the venture capital boys in the city.

Betfair was ground breaking once, when it started. Technology & internet forcing the dinosaur betting market to adapt to change.

A guaranteed win-win risk free profit for Betfair regardless of any event outcome each and every time, what could possibly go wrong ? And forward to today, ..............oh how the mighty have fallen

smarkets and betdaq to an extent holds good liquidity these days on the major markets. use skrill as your hub for moving your cash in and out.

or better yet just keep a half decent float in all three to conver any exposure or outages

Roll on tomorrow scarbing, phone, various coupons, smartphone, a roll of notes and a few free pints & dinner from the crookies, on a small guaranteed result  

 

[HighlandTiger]

On 12/15/2015 at 15:25, Paul said:

But I'm just curious if we have anyone here on board who partakes in beating the bookies at their own game, who are secret stackers as well  

 

On 12/16/2015 at 19:05, sovereignsteve said:

Sorry @HighlandTiger

What you say is true but you have missed the point of this thread completely.

Not sure if I have missed the point really. Question was posed asking if anyone is out there beating the bookie, and I replied, you can't beat the bookie.

We are big enough gamblers as it is, ploughing money into pm's, but at least we have pieces of metal to show for our stupidity/genius. All you get for filling the bookies pockets is a sinking feeling and a waste bin full of betting slips.  

 

[sovereignsteve]

Depends on how you interpret the one non-specific statement in the original post "beating the bookies at their own game". Not simply "beating the bookie" as you took it.

The title of the tread and every other word in the post clearly states that it is not about traditional betting ie taking the other side to the bookie, but taking both sides of the bet to ensure a profit.

ie "Using them to make a profit regardless of event outcome."

You cannot beat the bookie in the long term by taking them on in the normal way. As you know, their business model is set up too much in their favour.

The only way is to take advantage of their bonuses and occasional lapses in odds setting. This is not gambling. If you set things up to ensure a profit and do it consistently, you make money Who therefore is losing money? This is beating the bookie.

[Scuzzle]

You can sometimes beat the bookies but they are not long in catching on and stopping it, the guys who worked out that the odds for a hole in one in golf tournaments were way higher than they should be is one example.  Another example is the FOBT's, the 'force the zero' method really did work for a few years until they figured it out and put a stop to it.