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KDave

Premium Member
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Everything posted by KDave

  1. Today I Received

    A lifetime's worth of sovereigns in one go. Where do you get them in such volume?
  2. A good point, but in context, this was a yes or no vote, clear cut, rather than a list of promises to fall by the way side. I don't think people will forget about this one if they make it go away.
  3. It is as you say. The problem is people voted expecting a result. Voted being the key. Democracy is on the line, if the majority are ignored then the precedent is set and democracy is something to be ignored in the future, perhaps law too.
  4. FED Rate impact

    I read that the fed are using a new measure of inflation which included asset prices showing inflation at 3%. Still think dollars at 1.5% are a good deal? Neither does anyone else. They can not keep interest rates low when inflation is this high. That is my thinking anyway. There is also the huge debt mountain looming over everything, we have gotten used to living in its shadow but it hasn't gone away, it has gotten bigger. Higher interest rates are going to make the threat it poses worse not better. What is ultimately happening here is the fed thinks it can put out signals and the market will react accordingly. The truth is they are a side show and raise because the market reality says they must not the other way around.
  5. The news tells me that the Bank of England thinks inflation has peaked so no need to raise rates. An excuse to continue 'carnage do nothing' policy. They are cautious and want to wait, test peak theory and buy time, before they are forced to raise. I've not been paying attention but has the US dollar continued it's fall? If so the next raise will be the fed, which will put the pressure on BOE to raise, it won't be done without that outside pressure imo.
  6. 4 Ducat

    Agreed they are nice coins, thin but good size, more diameter than some ounce coins. Being thin they are delicate. Good value bullion imo. If you buy from hgm ask condition first, one I bought last year was knackered so I sent it back. They are available elsewhere.
  7. silver price by 2020

    Supply increased last year, speculative element suppressed due to alternative in crypto, industrial demand falling across the board except solar panel tech. Where is the bullish case. Taking this alone, lower up till 2020. The currencies. Dollar - higher or lower? Sterling - higher or lower? This matters more I think.
  8. The ratio you are looking at is the paper price of the metals, if you look to physical and include costs such as buying premium, lower % in premium recouped when selling silver, the real ratio is much lower for private individuals wanting to trade physical. I read that paper silver is being sold to drive gold prices down, so they are linked but not in a monetary capacity, the label precious metal is nice but an irrelevance imo. There is a decent investment case for silver in industry, so it's worth holding as it gives a wide exposure and chances for gains when gold rises. Gold is the more practical of the two for physical though and it's primary investment case is it's continued use as non inflationary money, which is evidenced in its continued use as money on the sovereign level and being held and accumulated as reserves by nations and banks. Bearing in mind who holds gold and who holds silver, gold has the greater potential for future revaluation under a controlled reset. My preference is gold.
  9. Why we don't own bitcoin

    The banks have already said they don't think they can make money out of it. Still if there is a big wobble the ability to properly short will add balance to a market that up until futures has been driven entirely by greed. We need some fear, give the bears some tools and we might finally see the equilibrium that I am told about happening in the future some time and crypto being used as an actual currency instead of a tulip bulb. I had a good laugh at the story of the Dutch couple buying bitcoin with their house. History does like to repeat, but then perhaps it's different this time.
  10. Hi ht welcome back hope you are well. I used bitgild to get my wealth out of the Internets as I couldn't get my bank verified. I've just got rid of what I had left into cash for the time being and will convert back later to buy some silver when volatility in tulip coin is less. This is the blow off top if there ever was one, it's quite beautiful. I feel lucky to have lived in a time in history to see one, they are rare things. All imo!
  11. GOLD DEALS - See a deal, post here :)

    They sell fakes but it's all gold in the correct ct in my experience. Personally I have stopped buying from them as they send out knackered coins and charge a premium for the privilege. I have stopped selling to them after they reduced paid prices. It's a market place, plenty of other dealers with integrity and equal treatment of all customers.
  12. Herd Anticipation

    Good post I enjoyed reading. It is my opinion that Taxes are theft - money taken without permission using the threat of force. It's not an attitude it is more akin to a logical definition in my opinion. Moral arguments of where the money goes next are questionable under that context. Necessity is a better starting point, what does society actually need - this has sadly been lost among the noise of virtue signalling that has near bankrupted this nation and has transformed a great deal of attitudes, mostly that the government should look after you whether you contribute or not (especially if you don't contribute). The UK is one of the most tax heavy nations on earth. Look at the problems we have and consider that the solution is perhaps to do away with the things taxes are spent on and perhaps that taxes should be cut? An unpopular idea among the herd. I agree with you that pms are undervalued and are one of the few assets that are left in that state. I don't think that silver is a monetary metal, but it's a mute point. It has investor demand near to industrial demand, but unlike gold it is not used as money today as gold is on the sovereign level, nor is it used at local level. It has a great case for investment without this though. Given sentiment around silver, it's safe to assume you are not following the herd
  13. Bitcoin and Cryptos

    Every time I see a picture of bitcoin it is represented by gold coins. Why is that?
  14. Silver mistakes - yours or others

    Biggest mistake I made was buying silver from bullion by post, 2 tubes of britannias , high premium, VAT, the lot. This was my first silver purchase back in 2014.
  15. Fake 1887 £5 ?

    I had a fake one of these bought from HGM as bullion, it was the correct weight and size but fake. There are many fakes some extremely high quality. I sent mine back to hgm to be melted I feel your pain.
  16. Yes that may be a tipping point if tax efficiency is involved, this is an area that can be measured and reduces uncertainty, it is a guaranteed gain. Are you looking into paying for advice given the complexity we are dealing with here? It is probably money well spent with the sums involved with a mortgage? My situation is different in that I already had capital repayment, but the tipping point for me was that I could guarantee my position in 5 years by overpaying, known saving in interest (see it as a small gain perhaps), more importantly, bringing forward the time at which cash flow is increased by the mortgage amount plus over payments by years. Bear in mind I make small allowance for a pension (with tax advantage, a sipp) to hedge my bets, I am not so confident of a market crash to avoid stocks all together, nor am I so confident it won't, hence the obsession with gold. I am also somewhat risk averse and like to diversify and keep leverage low. Borrowing to buy a house with large amounts of leverage then investing with the repayment capital would give me trouble sleeping, which probably means the rewards will be huge and I have missed out Let us know what you decide and how it goes.
  17. Bitcoin and Cryptos

    Good points, I say tulips as it is the easiest way to communicate what I think this is; wealth and energy being diverted into an abyss. The claims it has value in utility are reduced by every price rise, the supporting principles eroded with every new coin and fork, each time it is regulated by government; every time there is an attempt to mainstream, put it into futures or make more accessible with paper mechanisms (etf for example). People are buying plant bulbs, more are being grown for next year that have different coloured petals but they are still plant bulbs. The price action is certainly comparable to the dotcom bubble.
  18. Bitcoin and Cryptos

    I have been researching all the way up trying to work out what everyone else is seeing that I am not. All I see is tulips, I nearly bought some etheriums as a tulip punt but they doubled before I bought and I said I'm not touching it. Would have been a ten bagger if I went for it at the new high. Bitcoin will probably go to 100K a pop but I'm not buying anymore. Just holding what the PC made out of thin air. Everyone is talking about the dollar value and trying to justify it, but there isn't a decent measure by which to value it. It makes no sense to me, it's utility as currency is questionable, too volatile, same applies as store of value, so called digital gold with a minute decade track record? People are taking punts on tulips myself included.
  19. Good points. Consider how much you can repay on the io mortgage at once, there may be a limit after which charges are involved, which needs to be accounted for in return from the investment portfolio. If rates rise and you need to reduce owed capital this may affect whether you break even. Shares are not always upwards over long periods. If you are averaging in with monthly accumulation then the risk of catastrophe is lower, but look at the historical tops - how long it took for shares bought then, to break even again, it took decades after 1999. Historic highs again. Please speak to someone who knows what they are talking about (not us lot on here ) before you pull any triggers.
  20. How long can you fix the interest only mortgage? This is the variable by which you will be hammered imo. Pay down the debt so that when/if rates rise this doesn't happen. If you could fix for 25 years say and invest over that time frame but would need a decent return to achieve the higher interest rate on the longer fix. I have not done the math but look into it and work it out on paper, then you can see if it works. If it's break even what's the point taking the additional risk? Honestly if you can make it work on paper and are willing to give it a go do it. If you get chance read some of the other threads I have explored this idea myself as I have a very low interest mortgage (repayment) and looked into investing vs over payments. The issue for me was the short time frame of 5 years fixed which in investing terms is not long enough to iron out the bumps when they happen. Because knowing my luck the market would crash at 4 years 11 months into the term accompanied by interest rates rising to historic levels. Hammered. I would rather have the certainty of lower wealth lost to interest than the small chance to make gains in a market at historic highs but each to their own.
  21. Capital repayment is the least risky way to reduce the loan, guaranteed if meeting payments. Investing to pay it off is unnecessary risk. Investing to makes gains using money that is marked to pay off the mortgage is a gamble, calculated risk, speculation, ect. Choose you level of acceptable risk. Don't forget that with capital repayment any over payments you make reduce the total interest paid over the term. Not paying via interest only means you get hammered for the entire sum for the entire term, plus suffer any hikes in interest rates potentially. There are no rights and wrongs, only what is acceptable risk and thinking about dealing with the potential consequences.
  22. Interest only mortgages are great during the rising market. But there is always the risk of falling prices. News of another 10 years expected of stagnant wages, and therefore little chance of property prices being increased from wage growth, plus plans for record numbers of houses being built over the same period, interest rates being historically low with sovereign borrowing levels rising, suddenly interest only reliant on capital gain doesn't look so good. Buy to let has other problems on top such as demographics and politics including brexit and growing numbers of renters who will vote in their own interest. The recent changes to buy to let are just the beginning in my opinion. House prices rising are a bad thing to a growing number of people who don't own, which is nearing that half way point and will exceed it in a few years should the trend continue. Anyways I thought buy to let mortgages nowadays require 50% equity from most banks? I would be surprised if the bank is allowing someone to take out interest only to buy to let in today's environment. Perhaps they are taking out an owner occupier io mortgage to then rent it out on the quiet?
  23. gemstones

    I have a selection of small stones including rough, I bought a lot of them to cut and have a few finished stones I have done myself to a highish standard but it's a hobby rather than an investment. It is an entirely different game to bullion and confirming authenticity requires some specialist kit, it's cheap enough and once you know what to look for its as safe as buying metals. There is a lot to learn, high barrier to entry if you like. You need to buy the stones as early in the chain as possible, there are some serious money people, many from China according to rumour, that have been buying anything over 5 carats directly from the mines uncut for years now, pushing the prices up and this is amplified down the chain. The smaller stuff has been dragged up too price wise which is a shame. Equally selling you need to do the leg work yourself as selling to jewelers they will give you 50% of what can be achieved elsewhere, as they have their own suppliers. If you look at prices of most rough it's been rising year on year though so maybe the big buyers are onto something. There are synthetics of some stones that are impossible to tell from the real thing if you are buying top grade stuff without inclusions. Amythist for example is impossible to tell the difference between top grade real without inclusions and synthetic. That takes them off the table for investment imo. Stone rough can be treated with heat (Ruby/sapphire) or dyed (Beryl/emerald), irradiated (topaz/scapolite). Heated Ruby is normal and accepted, most rubies are heated to reduce inclusions, but dying emerald is not ok and honestly difficult to spot until you start cutting the stuff. Every blue topaz, called London blue has been irritated and if the colour is stable this is completely fine. There is a market for collectors stones, rare bits of stone that are either mined out or only found in limited places. Tsavorite garnet is beautiful stuff for example. Colour change alexandrite is another. Chrome diopside is supposedly mined out and becoming sought after. There is room here for investment perhaps if you know what to look for to confirm authenticity. I could go but will save you from further boredom
  24. It's eye of beholder. The light play on the Griffin feathers. The lion of England -what's not to like. Sure the unicorn is a bit you know, and the dragon is flat as a pancake, but mythical beasts how cool is that? Personally I am using the series element to buying gold routinely, at the very least these are a minimum purchase each year and provides a justification for buying gold that my wife understands. Investment wise I could not care less how they do outside of spot value really, the premium at ounce size is equivalent to other coins, making the set equivalent to a tube of bullion gold Britannia's but ones I can look at every now and then while I wait for spot to do its thing.
  25. Faith in the Status Quo

    There are a group of people who rule the world but not to some master plan in an organised fashion it flys in the face of human nature. There are certainly a group of individuals who are so incredibly wealthy that their actions and desires can be pushed via lobbying, they can bribe and threaten, even influence and change the way the weak think (for example George soros gets a lot of flak for this kind of thing). The rich serve their own individual interests as everyone else does in their smaller less noticeable ways. They have a great deal of influence where real power lies most of the time, except when the wrong people get in like Donald Trump or Putin and suddenly they can't get what they want so easy. Hence the tears in the corporate media and brainwashed sheep.