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Everything posted by KDave

  1. I read a few years ago that the Chinese have been using aircraft to make atmospheric changes, I don't understand the tech or the process, but the end result is that they try to make it rain where they want it to rain. They are worried about desertification and are quite desperate to stop it. Plenty of news on their efforts, it reminded me of some of dubai's land engineering/terraforming projects. As for being poisoned, we are already poison via water with fluroide and are told about it - good for yer teeth! Trails like the above picture don't make much sense though unless its military activity, perhaps near a training base given the volume of trails. Looks like evidence of fast jet general handling at high level if the picture is real, I see they were working in pairs. Fast jets do that a lot.
  2. The picture looks like air traffic control were having a rough day.
  3. A bit late to the party, but I am wondering what people think will result from the US tariffs? I am looking in particular at the economic effects, but there are political effects and the potential for escalating 'trade war', particularity with the EU. I was surprised to learn that China only supplies around 4% of US steel imports so they could care less about this, but the EU supplies 21%. This is unlikely to go unanswered by them. Canada is next largest but has been exempted. The EU has not, despite Germany asking, and are already using hysterical language including talks of a trade war unless Trump removes the 'horrific' tariffs. From a consumer perspective I can only see this as a good thing. Just how good depends on how many or how few exemptions Trump decides are handed out, and the result of how much steel and aluminium will be floating around the rest of the world market pushing prices down. This assumes imports to the US will fall because of the higher price, which may or may not happen - I think it will. The natural consequence for us will be cheaper goods that involve these metals in their production, so I can't see how this is bad. We will get cheaper goods, we will be wealthier for it and have more cash to spend on sovereigns. The US citizen on the other hand will have to pay the inflated price, effectively subsidising their steel workers out of their own pocket whenever they buy goods that use the metal. There are no overall benefits to this economically and there are potential issues longer term. US steel producers can continue to produce the same quality steel and price it 25% higher than the same stuff from elsewhere. The tariffs have the potential to subsidise further investment in the production of this expensive steel, jobs will be created, but they will not be competitive in the world market - a problem later. Steel workers will effectively be subsidised by the rest of the US workforce for no overall benefit (the steel workers will benefit, but everyone else will be poorer by an equal amount). If tariffs are removed in the future, the jobs created will be lost and the wealth invested will be lost, because the steel is noncompetitive in the world market. There isn't a long term benefit to this, only short term - Trump gets to keep his promise, he creates (unsustainable) jobs, and voters love him for taking money out of their pockets to give to the steel workers. Thoughts please!
  4. The price of silver

    By definition of trading items for payment, anything can be money, so the idea of money can be disregarded as unimportant in regards to investing in silver, or anything else for that matter. What is important is recognising that silver does not perform the same function it did 100 years ago. Most of the demand today comes from its industrial uses (an incredible array of uses), followed closely by its use for investment and jewellery. The demand for this secondary use is falling, drastically so in 2016/17. I see the shrinking investment demand not in a monetary context but instead as falling demand for its use as a speculative vehicle. There is a clear case for its use as a store of value in terms of maintaining purchasing power over time. Perhaps crypto is better for speculation (although investment demand for silver fell before crypto became the 21st century tulip market), and gold makes the better store of value for many reasons those who stack silver in a meaningful way can appreciate, and those who have enormous capital such as governments and the wealthy still do appreciate. There is a monetary case to be made for many items, otherwise bitcoin would not have reached the heights it did. There are better cases to be made to invest in silver that do not rely upon the definition of money.
  5. I heard on the radio we are going to remain part of the customs union until 2020, we don't get our fishing rights back, and if we negotiate any trade deals in the interim, the EU gets the final say (nein!). Serfdom for another couple of years, then in 2020 there will be another half way deal to 2023 and on we go into the future, never quite leaving.
  6. You are spot on lowlow, the EU is generating the most tears over this yet the entire block is built upon restriction of trade. The Brexit talks are revolving around tariffs as well, the karma of what Trump is doing, plus the irony of their reaction to it is quite frankly, delicious I still agree and think tariffs are a bad move for the US economically.
  7. Keep hold of it all and wait for the second package, then make a thousand ounces of silver video. There is historic significance in that amount it would make an interesting topic.
  8. The blockchain ledger is independent and trust less, but it stops there - the tokens and everything that goes with them have many potential human issues just as the banking system does. Exchanges, wallet software, miners, all involve people. There is a lot of third party software that makes up the infrastructure, only the ledger can be trusted. An excel spreadsheet you can trust isn't worth a lot without the rest though. The free market attempt to take back control of money, I am a supporter, but so far it has failed primarily due to becoming a speculative vehicle. The market took the idea of blockchain and found a use for it in speculation, thousands of different ledgers of tokens that make various claims on the idea of money, yet rarely being used for this purpose. Thousands of flowers making claims to being the most beautiful, yet the speculative market trading those claims all look suspiciously similar. (Sorry couldn't help myself ). If it gets much cheaper I may need to start mining again.
  9. The price of silver

    If you look purely at the GSR over time the peaks and troughs have been expanding with each cycle, 100 to 1 ratio would not surprise me before it reverses, but either way its a slow process in both directions, decades long. Patience is key as swagger says. That said we must be careful taking a metric such as the GSR on its own, silver does not need to fall in price for the GSR to continue is march to 100 to 1. We must also be careful when looking at the historic monetary values of silver in terms of the GSR - the 9 to 1 and 16 to 1 figures - silver is arguably no longer a monetary metal, its industrial use is in excess of investment and jewellery and the demand for that purpose has fallen rather drastically in recent years. I have not seen up to date figures but early 2017 also saw the industrial demand for silver fall in every sector bar photovoltaics (e.g. solar panels) - the overall balance was maintained through high growth in that one sector but the rest of the picture is bleak. Especially for investment purposes - stacking silver has become an unpopular sport, physical demand for the range of investment vehicles, including demand from backed ETF products fell by a third last year. Its a mixed picture - against other assets, silver is the cheapest it has ever been, against other commodities its one of the cheapest, in the same boat as uranium, the downside looks limited yet no one is interested. No body cares. Sentiment is arguably terrible for the metal - another positive indicator. Yet the silver institute supply/demand (I am out of date by a year here) is not encouraging, the GSR trend is a mixed signal depending on your context - look at the trend at widening peaks and troughs and perhaps we are early, look at the historic monetary GSR's and its a buy. Look at the environment in terms of what silver represented for many people in the recent past, a speculative, lottery ticket like investment - the same people have sold to buy crypto. Crypto is not doing too well right now, but regardless the speculative crowd have moved on from silver for now. I am buying more silver than I am gold right now, another negative indicator? I was never much good at timing my investments
  10. Published 4 hours ago - nice title, but not quite as catchy as my version if I do say so
  11. The price of silver

    The way I see it Palladium and Rhodium are expensive relative to gold, silver and platinum, platinum is cheap relative to gold, and silver is cheap relative to gold, platinum, palladium and rhodium. More importantly, commodities are cheap relative to everything, but I would chose the commodities cheaper relative to each other historically, which is why silver and platinum are attractive even after the premiums.
  12. The price of silver

    The physical comes at a fairly high cost its true, its an expensive game this poor mans metal. Play the game with paper or pay someone to vault, its still expensive over time and the risk is arguably higher. When JP Morgan are playing the poor mans physical game over the paper, you can bet that the risk in the paper is much higher than most think, and the price downside on physical is much lower than most think too.
  13. The UK is socialist through and through. A free and conservative nation does not require the highest taxes on earth. Everyone is entitled but being responsible is the job of the state, hence we see broken families (the state makes it economically viable for single mothers), we see an ever ending creep of the government getting into every part of our lives. It could be organised ideology as sixgun says or it could easily just be the accumulation of unintended consequences over decades, driven by a mixture of ideological politics. We do have right wing elements here, traditional elements too in power. They are few but the majority are a reflection of society and political system which is definitely left leaning socialist. The nhs, the welfare state, the state pension, winter fuel allowance, Christ how many socialist policies do we have in place, seen as good and they are, but they have change the culture in unintended ways and led us towards where we are now. All were implemented before most people alive today were even born. The state provides, you have rights, but no one talks about being a responsible wife or husband, father or mother any more. It's all about choice and dam the consequences, because the state has got your back. What else could the outcome be.
  14. Thanks for the pointer I will take a look. Could not agree more, trade must be balanced and not at the expense of someone else. Is not importing steel from the EU exactly this scenario? EU workers are not slave labour, they are just more efficient/produce better steel than the Americans (arguably, I have no idea really, I base this on the market buying the stuff). In return they get something of value, or they would not trade. Protectionism takes that choice away and forces US consumers to pay more for no gain. I think we have come to the real problem, fiat currency - it is the source of the problem in many ways, not trade. Perhaps to get away from reliance on debt the US is right to enter a protectionist stance in an attempt to generate more wealth, perhaps the tariffs will result in investment that brings down the cost of production, makes better quality steel and makes the sector competitive again. If the implemented system of giving money to the sector through tariffs without strings attached, it is more likely not to increase efficiency, not increase quality and just provide more of the same, with the jobs that come with that. Long term this is not sustainable and just makes everyone poorer. Perhaps I will be proven wrong, I hope so as I would like to see our industry in the UK renewed in a similar manner. I just think tariffs are the wrong way to go about it, competition is the better way, finding an edge over and above the disparity of third world wages by producing quality that the market wants, or efficiency that the market wants. Easier said than done of course You are correct though most of our fuel cost is in tax. We are among the most heavily taxed nation on earth, another reason why we fail to be competitive at anything but generating debt
  15. The consumer will indeed be paying more for steel, the issue is that no one in the US is wealthier for it but the opposite, this is in the short and long term. Lets say that demand for steel is maintained despite the price increases (unlikely) - the steel industry grows, we can see 'made in the USA' on certain goods again. The result will be more US consumer wealth spent on those goods that involve steel in their production - the consumer will pay - which means less wealth to spend elsewhere. The steel industry gains from government intervention, and another industry or sector will suffer - less money to spend means other areas of the economy will suffer, who knows what the consumer will cut back on. There isn't a net gain, just one industry benefiting at the expense of another, as yet undetermined sector. It is true that globalism has not led to an even distribution of wealth, everyone can see it to the point it almost goes without saying. The top have gotten richer, the middle and poor have been treading water and worse for a few decades now, I recall since the late 70's from a recent presentation on historic wealth inequality and the trend continues. The monetary system has allowed people to be robbed year in and year out, as they get their 'pay rise' which has in reality averaged to 'pay maintenance' for the past few decades. Monetary inflation has been the means to siphon wealth away from the workers and into assets, which are held by the rich. The real wealth generated over the past few decades through efficiency driven by global competition, technological improvements and global demographics has not been distributed evenly, the free market is not to blame for this. The results however, are showing up as a political symptom as well as a monetary one, and Trumps tariffs are the first step on the road to not fixing the problem but making it worse for the people who have been getting shafted for decades (except for the steel workers of course!!!!). I will go and research the period in history you mention, the period of US protectionism as I don't know much about it. I have studied Germany and Italy in the 1930's who both pursued self-sufficiency policies and the average person was made much worse off by the end of it before the war even started, scarcity was common even in the basics and not just because production was being diverted towards militarisation, we are even talking food and clothing, the basics. I don't see a parallel now to the 1930's though in terms of war or politics, more in terms of economic policy. Give it a few years and the others will follow. Perhaps the US market is big enough to sustain itself, I am not convinced anyone will be better off there from the tariffs on any time scale. The other issue is an insular market will not remain so forever, eventually the tariffs will be removed by a future president and the problems I mention in terms of malinvestment and unsustainable jobs will come home to roost, and the US steel industry will be back to where it was before the tariffs, ie, like it is today.
  16. Excellent replies thanks chaps. I can see the argument for protectionism for building up an industry, but isn't the free-market a better way to achieve this? If the EU provides so much of American steel it is for a reason, I assume because it is cheaper or better quality. Introducing tariffs will improve neither the quality or lower the cost of production in the united states, and so long term it doesn't matter if the industry booms under protectionism or not. Even short term it is wrong, as it makes everyone pay 25% more for certain goods. The same units of steel currently bought by US consumers will still be consumed, they will just be paying more for the privilege. Assuming demand does not fall as a result of it being more expensive of course (which is the conclusion I am hoping for) instead the expense of it will force demand for other items to fall by an equal amount as no one is richer on the whole through this policy. The result is everyone in the US is poorer for it (apart from the steel workers of course).
  17. Today I Received

    Got home from work today to find I have received a proof silver black bull which is going back for replacement. Small but clearly visible black spot on the N of Clarence. A proper black bull indeed. Second time lucky maybe, good old royal mint Pictures to come once I have calmed down.
  18. Bullion or not Bullion

    I agree with considering exit strategy if commiting large amounts to pm as an investment, understand the different levels of risk and reward between the choices and that collectors market and gold and silver markets are all different beasts. If the plan is to make it a hobby then buy what you like. Learn as much as you can stomach and expect the plan to change often.
  19. That's a proper used car very nice. Plenty of boot space. No reason it can't go to 200k and beyond being a diesel.
  20. Its a bit naive though to think people are not buying stacks of coins and then benefiting from the pumping on these threads. I noticed last year threads being started by new members with few posts just to point out that certain dealers had certain coins in stock, but hurry there were not many left and at twice release price they are still a bargain! It happens all the time on here with other products too, crypto pumping by new members for example. Is it not blatantly obvious it happens with coins on a forum full of an audience who like coins? It's obvious to me any way. The good old hype and gouge. Works everytime. I will add that I bought one of these fine coins from ash and my father in law loves it. But it's not going to be the silver equivalent of bitcoin so don't go mad chaps, one is enough if you are really collecting. Otherwise, buying multiple just admit what you are doing, trying to make money, either during the frenzy or are taking a big risk the premium survives long term. And please be honest, the high premium is a risk long term, people more experienced know this. There is nowt wrong with buying to flip, it's fair play as long as everyone is aware of what is potentially going on.
  21. How to succeed? 1. Keep your mouth shut. 2. Accept that everything is your fault. 3. Always be grateful for your lot. Actually the last one is true, touche. It can always be worse
  22. Brexit.

    Very interesting I didn't realise we had VAT on gold previously. This adds to the theory of tax on gold if it could be reintroduced with historic precedent, how sad if this is what comes to pass. I would not be surprised, it would go hand in hand with the elimination of cash we see elsewhere in the world, and effectively curtail economic choice - you either play with the rest in the paper markets or you pay heavily for the privilege of not doing so.
  23. Blame is so pointless though isn't it? It feels good and provides an easy (and wrong) focus for small minded folk, an excellent distraction technique frequently used by the powers that be, and the media, it is prevalent in many organisations and used by the higher ups to sweep problems under the carpet. People almost always look for someone to blame when something goes wrong, when instead perhaps a better question is 'how do we stop this happening to the next lot'. Blame changes nothing and at the end of feeling good and righteous about ourselves and often having destroyed someone else by using them as a scapegoat for causing the problem, the problem remains. Of course if the older generation didn't exist we wouldn't have a problem in the first place would we
  24. Sunday Night Metal Chat

    I have been stacking a quarter ounce of gold a year for each of my kids but they are too young to understand other than the basic concepts that gold is rare and valuable (I tell them this) and they can see that it is very shiny and has either a nice panda or an animal stamped onto it. I will educate them as they grow up and can understand as I had no such education and learned about investing and money when I was 25, so a bit late, where as they will hopefully see the benefits of investing early. I figure by doing it this way, they will be directly involved in the process because they choose the coin they want (They always choose pandas and or lunar animals funny old thing). I buy a half ounce every two years for them, alternating years, so I can afford to do so, and this way they effectively each get a quarter ounce per year. The reason for this is because the half ounce coins are more impressive, I tried quarters but they just don't have the presence or impact which is what I am going for. I also think every two years will keep it from becoming routine, adding perceptive value perhaps. I stack stocks for them too, its about 50/50, but I don't tell them this as they won't understand that at all yet. That is for later and will demonstrate how it works for them, again being invested should make it engaging. We will see which is the better investment when they turn 18. My personal stack is a means of saving and a conservative form of speculation. If I am honest it is a hobby too, mostly a hobby in fact as I enjoy it. At the end of the process when I have stacked until I can stack no more, the end result is either for retirement, paying off the mortgage, moving back home (property is expensive there - for now), or for passing on to my kids - it all depends on what happens to the price between now and then, and when that happens. If gold goes to $100 an ounce, then the kids will be getting a few ounces of worthless metal when I shuffle off . I am not all in on PM's, I have stocks, I have a SIPP, I have a good work based pension, I pay national insurance, all of these are intended in the long term for retirement, diversification if you like, but who knows if any of them will be worth a dam when I do retire. At least I will have something to sell and feed myself if they are not.
  25. Lowlow I was with you all the way to the last paragraph, I see a different attitude amoung my peers than wanting to be heros. That must be the hero lefties social justice warrior types grabbing the headlines again rather than the grafters wanting a good quality of life through honest work. Instead as a whole they are destined to be poorer than the generation that came before and not just from a materialistic point of view. Culturally there is a problem too as you have articulated, I think more to do with the lack of societal values than anything else. When right and wrong, good and bad are subjective, then nothing is truly fundamentally good or bad and nothing is right or wrong. The foundation of society has been replaced with sand, how long can it last.