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aztecstargazer

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  1. Who got you into Gold and Silver?

    Donald Trump was the motivation for me to buy precious metals. Not because I agree with him, on anything. He is monumentally incompetent and incredibly reckless. The last time we had a Republican moron (not all republicans are morons, but GW Bush, especially Trump) as a President, there was reckless deregulation. This deregulation led to high gas prices and corporations taking advantage of the general public and speculating in securities. This all led to the 2008 crisis and many other problems. I am expecting his incompetence to cause many problems. I don't even know where I learned that gold and silver do well after a crash happens, but I looked into it, and found that silver was my best option.
  2. Silver Price Analysis

    Technical analysis is not perfect. But then again, neither is fundamental analysis. Fundamental analysis would suggest the gold/silver ratio should be around 16:1 to 9:1; Based on how much exists. But it isn't. The main reason I study charts is because most influential trades are made by computers. Computers follow programs, and programs follow the numbers. Numbers establish trends, and traders follow the same data. This leads to a herd mentality, which is a tool I plan to take advantage of as frequently as possible. I have come to look at the precious metals game as a combination between Poker, Art-collecting, and math. But a good poker player knows the math and plays the odds. You can't play the odds if you don't do the math, track the probabilities and bounce these factors against the other people sitting at the table.
  3. Silver Price Analysis

    okay. why is it always doom and gloom with precious metal investors? I am just trying to better understand technical analysis so I can better approach the FOREX market. I think we are too near the top in terms of the US stock market. Since PM's are technically "money", prudent analysis treating it as a currency seems necessary. The spot price of silver is established through the ETF's and futures contracts. This is the kind of thing the "professionals" do. Knowing where they set their trailing stop losses gives you the "crystal ball" which can help you predict prices. Dollar-cost-averaging is extremely inefficient and was eating into my profitability. I'm actually expecting the price to go up. Once it approaches the descending line in my chart, I will be selling my entire stack. I need to condense my holding as I have far too much variety. I am not looking to sell this stuff on ebay or anywhere else. I forgot the acronym K.I.S.S. (keep it simple stupid).
  4. Silver Price Analysis

    I compiled this chart today. The minimum is $13.65/oz, which occurred 12-14-2015. The maximum is $21.13/oz, which occured 7-4-2016. The median is $17.39/oz. The convergence is interesting to me. $16.66/oz 7-4-2018 Do we think the breakout will be up or down is the real question.
  5. Moderated?

    This is literally concerning. The only thing I have done which would warrant "moderation" is a divergent public display of American politics. If this is the case, I have done nothing but express an interest in the opposition of the "common" opinion held by the precious metals community. Maybe I insulted conspiracy theorists? This was an article intended to discuss "Fibonacci Trend Analysis".
  6. DOW tanks

    That had to hurt. The dow jones here in the USA just tanked over 1000 points today. This is exactly why I refuse to invest into a 401k or IRA. I am going to be honest, I held my cash in my trading account with the hope that this was only a short term correction. This doesn't appear to be the case. If you look at the faces of the people on the floor of the NYSE, there isn't a sense of calm nor a feeling like they aren't worried. It looks exactly like the opposite. They look like deer in the head lights. There are a lot of people who are comparing this to how the 2008 collapse began. In fact, today's drop is bigger than Friday's drop. We have had a historic drop, and in less than a week, a bigger drop occurs. I don't know if anyone has read "gold and silver" by Mike Maloney, but this is exactly what he predicts in his book. That this market would absorb a ton of the QE currency and inflate like crazy. Then people would knee jerk transfer into bonds. I don't know why, but when I heard the "experts" on the big financial news channels saying that it was the bond yields that were attracting investors away from the stock market; I heard the "twilight zone" theme song. I don't like to blindly follow what "experts" say, Mike Maloney and others like him are no exception. I actually was tempted to buy short term T-bills or something. But there is something about my mentality that doesn't like being out of control. I don't even have a cell phone contract. But I also know the danger of going "ALL-IN" with any investment. I also don't feel comfortable with my strategy of utilizing FOREX markets, as I don't know enough about it yet. Any suggestions for an investment vehicle would be appreciated. Art, trading-cards, toys, etc. The more obscure the better.
  7. Selling silver

    The best strategy I have found is to have a single place where you buy your precious metal and sell it back to them. I buy from APMEX and will sell it back to them. This is especially important when it comes to generic rounds. Most large precious metals dealers will only buy-back rounds you buy from them. This also goes into my opinion that you should not over diversify your holdings. I fell victim to this trap when I first started. I was all about weight and bought the generics and liked to buy rounds which I didn't have. I liked to collect them, but then I had a problem because the only person willing to buy them back was my local coin shop. I have nothing against LCS's, they have the benefit of allowing you to liquidate small amounts of your PM's and allow you to sell quickly in case of emergencies. But they always buy far below current spot prices. You also have to take into consideration the numismatic value of your holdings and the time you have given for the premium to grow in value. This should be sold on the secondary market, such as ebay. This takes longer and carries the risk of selling to strangers who might be shady.
  8. Shifting Into Cash

    Regulations exist for a reason. I usually attribute the disdain for regulations to a lack of understanding in what I call "cumulative error effects". If one person does something wrong, every now and again, true it won't have a major negative effect. But the problem is when too many people have this same mind-set, and the compound effect begins to pile up and lead to an actual problem. Over hunting is the comparison I usually like to use to help people understand why regulations exist. Then there are greedy ass holes who deliberately put people in harms way for the sake of profits. The example I use is corporations dumping toxic waste into a public water source, because disposing of it properly is too expensive. If you have a problem with regulations, you should stop directing your anger at regulators. Instead you should be outraged at the dick heads who put people at risk or felt they had more right to public resources than everyone else.
  9. US help needed

    Dude, pay your damn taxes. How can you ask to be treated as a member of a "community" in the way of a favor, then express your disinterest in contributing to your community by paying your damn taxes?
  10. There has always been a three pronged approach to my investment strategy. Precious Metals, Stocks and FOREX are those prongs. I have not been into cash since I began investing. But I have been doing ongoing practice with a FOREX practice account. The reason for this is because I have been expecting a massive turn around in the stock market and the overall economy, here in the USA. Again, I have never made it a secret about how I feel about Donald Trump and the Republican party. So I am preparing for the inevitable crash. Which is why my primary position is in Silver. The other half of my position WAS in a few stocks. This recent market drop has prompted me to move out of all of my stock positions. I don't think this is the worst of what is likely to come. It is in my opinion just a trip before the fall. The next phase of my strategy is likely to be implemented sooner than I'd have liked, but it is what it is. I don't know what the state of the Euro/British stock markets are looking like. So if anyone has some insight as to what the general mind-set of these two markets is, please let me know. This is so I can shift into either trading EUR or GBP currencies. I might even look to go into a more emerging market like India. Any feedback would be appreciated.
  11. Buying Cull Coins

    I'm not suggesting people don't counterfeit coins. I'm just saying it is far less common and the degree of detail and such makes it more difficult to counterfeit them as well.
  12. Buying Cull Coins

    I have all but abandoned the idea of buying generic silver. These rounds and bars are entirely to difficult to sell. You either have to sell them back to the company you purchased them from; Or you have to sell them on the third market. Don't get me wrong, there are some extremely beautiful rounds available. But, you are going to be limited in where and when you can sell them. That being said, I am thinking of building a short and long term PM portfolio. I personally have begun buying APMEX mint direct products, in particular the New Zealand Star Wars Coins. These are coins I want to hold for a long time. At least until the series is completed. Which will of course take years. But I do feel I have gained enough experience to start trading silver. The pros would probably recommend I go into the ETF's. This has the inherent problem of "if you don't hold it, you don't own it". So I have been shopping around and started to notice culled or damaged coins are extremely cheap. I know this is because they are not going to appreciate in value like an MS 69 or MS 70 kind of coin. They will pretty much be tied to the spot price, similar to generics. The thing is that these are still coins at the end of the day. It took me a long time to wrap my head around why coins carry a premium. This is because coins are produced by governments. The penalty for counterfeiting the coin is severe, which dissuades criminals from creating fakes. It is the liquidity which is so important. My question here is if anyone has any experience with cull or damaged coins? Remember I am seeking an item which is not going to be held for long periods of time. Are these coins still still considered BU? Are these coins still liquid? I am also not looking to see rapid appreciation of a coin. I am looking to trade in and out of a position within a couple of months to a few weeks. Any input or discussion would be appreciated.
  13. Next to Nothing about ....Pro-gold or Anti-USD?

    This is just sad to hear. Literally nothing you just ranted about is true. I don't even know how to react to such a rant. It truly makes me sad. I long ago lost anything resembling faith in humanity. Comments and opinions like this only serve to re-enforce my lack of faith in humans.
  14. Next to Nothing about ....Pro-gold or Anti-USD?

    I don't know how it is in England, but here in the US, it is exactly as I said.
  15. Next to Nothing about ....Pro-gold or Anti-USD?

    Don't get me wrong. The media has become a tool of the wealthy elite to impose their ideals and promote their own agendas. This is quickly shifting with the advent of internet media. The ability of many views to be expressed is a good thing. The agenda for "right-wing" has undeniably become racist and conformist towards white, christian and wealthy. Sorry, but it's true.