Richard Rock's Trading and Chart Analysis

[Guest]

Those who know me on the Silver Forum know I am a Silver stacker, but I am also an trader and would like to share my trades and analysis here also. 

I am a self taught and self employed trader based in the UK with over 10 years experience trading Forex majors and precious metals. Trades are posted within minutes after entry, with simple chart analysis explaining my reasons why I took the trade/s, including stop loss and profit levels.

I do not use indicators, just price action and sometimes sheer gut instinct as a result of thousands of hours watching the screens. I originally started out as a scalper, but as I have become older and wiser, I came to prefer the much more stress free and as profitable longer term and swing trades.

I try to average +5% return per month, +60% p.a. My average win/loss ratio is between 80/20 and 70/30, but can be as low as 65/35 in difficult market conditions. I use an average risk/reward ratio of 3:1. Maximum capital risk is 2% per trade, with a total exposure across all open trades at max 4%.

You are welcome to follow me as I trade.

Long term short position entered on XAU/USD  @$1241 on 30/06/2017
Total Risk: 2% (2 Positions, 1% Risk each)
Entry: 1241:41 Stop: 1306:19
Take profit 1st position: 1080:28 (+2.5%) and move 2nd position stop to break even.
Take Profit 2nd position: 921:85 (+5.0%)
Total profit potential for 2% risk: 7.5% (Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.75:1)
Will be looking to move stops to break even if price touches 1140, but will assess as trade develops.

Price Action: Looking at this Monthly chart, you can see we had a rejection from the upper trend line. This alone is not enough for me to go short, but looking at the yellow area on the right we can see a doji followed by a shooting star, leading into another doji followed by June's price action breaking through the upper trendline and failing. This was probably an attempt to run a few stops and encourage a few longs the other side of the trendline before a resumption of the down trend in earnest.

I believe the down trend may still be intact and placing a stop above the last three month's price with allows total profit targets of 7.5%.  However, I could be very wrong, the market is the market and I am prepared to lose 2% if proven otherwise.

 

And this is what I see in EUR/USD:

EUR/USD Looking at daily charts, price is stalling at upper down trend. High reward/low risk set up for potential mid-longer term trade. However, we could have a bit of chop up here and spike through my stops (I presume that's where most other's stops sit and one or two of the big boys could just smash through here to drop in their order). Wouldn't surprise me to see a run through stops before large fall, but the possibility exists that the EUR could just drop hard during low liquidity through this week's 4th July Holiday (U.S.), so this move may indeed leave plenty of orders unfilled slightly higher up.

Targets and Stops are on shown on first daily chart, but will be bringing stops down to break even as soon as possible, then decide if trailing stops should come into use in order to continuously lock in profits. If price falls, could see rebound from any of the fib levels shown, but main thing to keep in mind is the large unfilled gap from April.
The 4hr chart (not posted here, is showing me a large engulfing bar, which could be a good bearish sign to enter here at the 50% fib of that one engulfing bar ~ instead of waiting for a possible upthrust at the trendline.)
Pulling first position at that mid gap level, will leave second to run with stop at prob 23 Fib until support turned resistance at gap.

2 positions, 1.0% total risk.
Position 1: 0.5% risk, potential gain: +3.08%
Position 2: 0.5% risk, potential gain: +8.2%
Total possible profit: +11.1%

 

Charts and descriptions are on my blog at RichardRockFX.

 

[Guest]

XAU/USD Short @1241 update:

The Gold short from 30-06-17 is currently in profit after dropping quickly from my short entry in previous post to close the week at $1212. Stops and targets are unchanged. In the chart, you can see we have entered a fairly strong support area (yellow zone on chart) and I expect we may chop around this level during the next few days. However, we could continue to fall quickly from here if the bears are fully on board. It is nice when a trade goes quickly into profit, but I'm not counting chickens until I see what happens at the ascending line from the two lows marked on the chart. It is tempting to drop the stops to breakeven at that point, but will monitor closely and update if that level reached. 

EUR/USD Short @1408 update:

The EUR/USD short from 02-07-17 in my previous post is currently slightly in profit @1.1398. As predicted in my post, it has been choppy in this area, dropping during the first part of the week before climbing back above and then closing the week just under my short entry. A bearish weekly hammer is the result and I will continue to hold my shorts and see if this plays out.

I'll be looking for a good Silver entry over the next few weeks, and a GBP/USD entry fairly soon.

[Guest]

In response to the request for a Silver analysis via PM, I'm glad I mentioned to you I saw downside last week, the flash crash took many by surprise this week. I am still not in a Silver position, but this is what I see:

 

[CarlosSilver]

I genuinely wish I understood this thread. 

[FlorinCollector]

16 minutes ago, CarlosSilver said:

I genuinely wish I understood this thread. 

I feel the exact same :/

[Guest]

2 hours ago, CarlosSilver said:

I genuinely wish I understood this thread. 

 

2 hours ago, JCRJM said:

I feel the exact same :/

Hi, this thread is aimed at people who already have some knowledge of trading, however if you are completely new to trading and want to learn the basics, I recommend this free course here: Learn Forex Trading that will take you through the basics step by step from complete novice to being able to take your first trades. It concentrates on Forex, but the principles are mostly the same across all markets.

If you have any questions, I or others will be able to help if you post them here: 

http://thesilverforum.com/forum/66-general-market-trading-discussions/

Hope this helps,

Rich

[FlorinCollector]

Just now, RichRock said:

 

Hi, this thread is aimed at people who already have some knowledge of trading, however if you are completely new to trading and want to learn the basics, I recommend this free course here: Learn Forex Trading that will take you through the basics step by step from complete novice to being able to take your first trades. It concentrates on Forex, but the principles are mostly the same across all markets.

If you have any questions, I or others will be able to help if you post them here: 

http://thesilverforum.com/forum/66-general-market-trading-discussions/

Hope this helps,

Rich

thanks mate

[Guest]

EUR/USD Stopped out for -1% due to choppy action as predicted in first post, was worth a shot though due to high reward/low risk. XAU/USD in the green at moment.
Looking for a GBP/USD Short soon around 1.32-33 levels, will post update when nearer price, currently @ 1.3075
Pending XAG/USD Short, 2% @ 16.20:

 

[Guest]

The last week's trades:

Uneventful week for my trades, apart from my EUR/USD being stopped out at -1% in the chop at upper trendline. Not looking for a re-entry here, I don't revenge trade. Will stand aside on the Euro for now.

The Gold short is slightly in profit, but could go into negative whilst the longs think they have a chance before they get slapped. It's a long term trade and I'm playing the weekly/monthly's on that one, so no stress there. If it drops hard from here, then fine and dandy.

Silver pending order placed on Friday @16.20 got to about 16.10 before retreating. Want to see a spike through my Short entry zone into a cluster of stops and some capitulation to enable a hard fast drop. Will hold order into Asian open, because as you know, tongue in cheek, Silver traders like to sell the total annual world Silver production during the first few mins at start of Asia into the lowest volume possible. Some would call it rigging, some would call it stupidity. I would call the recent moves in precious metals the normal 'nothing to see here' scenario and simply a spirited drive to flush out all last remaining longs in the market. The bottom may be a fair distance away yet, there is blood on the streets, but it's not quite flowing enough for me to long the precious metals just yet. Time will tell. 

 

Upcoming trading week:

I Shorted GBP/USD last year at the 1.3350 level and was as surprised as everyone else when we hit 1.24. Good increase to the account. I was even more surprised when it carried on down another few hundred in a 'flash crash' (many of these flash crashes around these days, aren't there?), much to the dismay of the Bank of England and British importers. I have been waiting on the sidelines forever and had marked an area of around 1.3275-1.3375 for another short re-entry. I'm thinking, as a contrarian and outside of the sheeple pen, that most GBP shorts are going to be cleared out here above 1.30 resistance broken on Friday. The Shorts will jump ship into confident Longs only to be dropped hard from 1.33 ish, and I mean a long hard drop to retest the bottom. We are only a couple of hundred pips here at 1.3070 from a possible Short entry point, but I want to see how Asia throws the dice tomorrow night. Janet Yellen began to behave like a schizophrenic during her briefing this week and can't decide if the US Economy is doing well and rates need to rise quickly, or if indeed she has just been lying and the rates are coming home to a Zeroville near you. One thing I can guarantee, the smart money left the stock market a few months ago. Smart money knows when stupid people lie.

This coming week is going to be one of two things, shockingly frantic and surprising, or shockingly static. The days of nicely up and nicely down trends and plenty of volume disappeared after the 2008 Central Bank comedy show.

I will post a GBP/USD Chart as soon as I enter, if the opportunity presents itself above 1.32-33 area

Details of all trades: RichardRockFX

[CarlosSilver]

I still have no idea what you are going on about but I'm strangely aroused. 

[morezone]

@CarlosSilver If you want to understand and learn, then you may wish to look into RichRock's suggestion from above.

Quote

Hi, this thread is aimed at people who already have some knowledge of trading, however if you are completely new to trading and want to learn the basics, I recommend this free course here: Learn Forex Trading that will take you through the basics step by step from complete novice to being able to take your first trades. It concentrates on Forex, but the principles are mostly the same across all markets.

If you have any questions, I or others will be able to help if you post them here: 

http://thesilverforum.com/forum/66-general-market-trading-discussions/

Hope this helps,

Rich

 

[vangbacgiabao]

On 3/7/2017 at 10:11, RichRock said:

Those who know me on the Silver Forum know I am a Silver stacker, but I am also an trader and would like to share my trades and analysis here also. 

I am a self taught and self employed trader based in the UK with over 10 years experience trading Forex majors and precious metals. Trades are posted within minutes after entry, with simple chart analysis explaining my reasons why I took the trade/s, including stop loss and profit levels.

I do not use indicators, just price action and sometimes sheer gut instinct as a result of thousands of hours watching the screens. I originally started out as a scalper, but as I have become older and wiser, I came to prefer the much more stress free and as profitable longer term and swing trades.

I try to average +5% return per month, +60% p.a. My average win/loss ratio is between 80/20 and 70/30, but can be as low as 65/35 in difficult market conditions. I use an average risk/reward ratio of 3:1. Maximum capital risk is 2% per trade, with a total exposure across all open trades at max 4%.

You are welcome to follow me as I trade.

Long term short position entered on XAU/USD  @$1241 on 30/06/2017
Total Risk: 2% (2 Positions, 1% Risk each)
Entry: 1241:41 Stop: 1306:19
Take profit 1st position: 1080:28 (+2.5%) and move 2nd position stop to break even.
Take Profit 2nd position: 921:85 (+5.0%)
Total profit potential for 2% risk: 7.5% (Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.75:1)
Will be looking to move stops to break even if price touches 1140, but will assess as trade develops.

Price Action: Looking at this Monthly chart, you can see we had a rejection from the upper trend line. This alone is not enough for me to go short, but looking at the yellow area on the right we can see a doji followed by a shooting star, leading into another doji followed by June's price action breaking through the upper trendline and failing. This was probably an attempt to run a few stops and encourage a few longs the other side of the trendline before a resumption of the down trend in earnest.

I believe the down trend may still be intact and placing a stop above the last three month's price with allows total profit targets of 7.5%.  However, I could be very wrong, the market is the market and I am prepared to lose 2% if proven otherwise.

 

And this is what I see in EUR/USD:

EUR/USD Looking at daily charts, price is stalling at upper down trend. High reward/low risk set up for potential mid-longer term trade. However, we could have a bit of chop up here and spike through my stops (I presume that's where most other's stops sit and one or two of the big boys could just smash through here to drop in their order). Wouldn't surprise me to see a run through stops before large fall, but the possibility exists that the EUR could just drop hard during low liquidity through this week's 4th July Holiday (U.S.), so this move may indeed leave plenty of orders unfilled slightly higher up.

Targets and Stops are on shown on first daily chart, but will be bringing stops down to break even as soon as possible, then decide if trailing stops should come into use in order to continuously lock in profits. If price falls, could see rebound from any of the fib levels shown, but main thing to keep in mind is the large unfilled gap from April.
The 4hr chart (not posted here, is showing me a large engulfing bar, which could be a good bearish sign to enter here at the 50% fib of that one engulfing bar ~ instead of waiting for a possible upthrust at the trendline.)
Pulling first position at that mid gap level, will leave second to run with stop at prob 23 Fib until support turned resistance at gap.

2 positions, 1.0% total risk.
Position 1: 0.5% risk, potential gain: +3.08%
Position 2: 0.5% risk, potential gain: +8.2%
Total possible profit: +11.1%

 

Charts and descriptions are on my blog at RichardRockFX.

 

Oh well i want to find out about how to calculate the chart that predicts the price of silver and gold, you have the guide details, i am currently working on Vàng Bạc Gia Bảo  and i think i need it in the job mine

[Guest]

55 minutes ago, vangbacgiabao said:

Oh well i want to find out about how to calculate the chart that predicts the price of silver and gold, you have the guide details, i am currently working on Vàng Bạc Gia Bảo  and i think i need it in the job mine

If you are looking for a live Silver chart to stick on your website, then most people use this one, should be ok for your Vietnam web because it allows you to change the chart language, and supplied with html code, it posts quite small on webpages if you want, but they want you to link back:https://www.kitconet.com/

[Guest]

I discussed a possible Silver Short set up in a previous post here, but looking at price action, I have decided to enter here at 16.17, just shy of the original price. I am changing the original stop level and going for a mid term trade, new stop is at 16.47, slightly above a confluence of 
Fibonacci levels (these Fib levels will depend on individual broker's decision of the flash crash bottom price). 
Risk is reduced from the original 2% to 1% as I don't have much room for error with a smaller stop level due to Silver's volatility.
Looking at the original chart (1st Chart below), you can see the reasons I was looking for this price point, and in the newer chart today, you can see this level reached. Many factors come into play at this $16.17-20 level. 
As I see it (2nd Chart below): We are about to touch the mid term upper trend line, sometimes price falls before actual levels reached due to others (like me) not wanting to miss the main move and jumping in a few pips early. Others waiting for higher levels may be disappointed (or not, if I am wrong.)
Price is at the longer term trend line (broken through on the 3rd of July) and we are now testing this previous support level, price stalling here may ensure a firm support turned resistance area.
Stops can be brought much lower and allow a higher profit target % with a lower risk of 1% to achieve an as yet undecided profit level. Profit level will depend on price action, I will be babysitting this trade until in the green and stop brought to break even before trailing.
As we know, the market is the market and I could be completely wrong, but in my view this could be a worthwhile entry point.

Details of all trades on my blog RichardRockFX

[Guest]

Previous Silver Short @16.17 stopped out, -1%. Gone long here at 16.42, Stop 16.38, Stop to break even @ 16.47, 0.5%, target open.

Current price at time of posting:16.45

[Guest]

Clipped out @ breakeven @ 16.42. +0%.

Long 16.50, stop 15.58, possible target +18.48/54, Risk: 2%, going back to longer term trade. Levels on Chart.

[Guest]

Closed my 16.50 Silver long here at 16.50 after waiting 10 days for this price action to get going. Made a grand total of +0%. Stalled a couple of days ago and dipping now just after Non Farms Payroll, jumping out incase we have an avalanche. Still holding Gold short from over a month ago (check previous posts for charts etc).
The last month has been very slow, but not too concerned as I only managed a couple % loss during a month that subsequently turned out to be a large monthly pin bar on Silver.
The question is, how long before the crap hits the fan and panic reappears in the market? I'm looking forward to some volatility in the weeks/months ahead.

[vangbacgiabao]

On 16/7/2017 at 12:52, RichRock said:

If you are looking for a live Silver chart to stick on your website, then most people use this one, should be ok for your Vietnam web because it allows you to change the chart language, and supplied with html code, it posts quite small on webpages if you want, but they want you to link back:https://www.kitconet.com/

hic! For every political turmoil y is that the price of gold has risen, as if there is money to buy gold now

[Guest]

Thanks for the post. I can get the gist of it all, but need to do a little research to understand it completely. 

[C12]

Nice thread. I'm also a trader (forex) and happy to share some gold / silver analysis on here as things unfold.

I've been running an active thread over at a forex trading forum for the last 5 years. 

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=390673

Technically gold is looking particularity strong on the monthly chart with fresh a demand zone and a longer term trend breakout. Here's the monthly chart. 

You can see last year's breakout has attempted to retest the breakout line. It's possible (on this timeframe) we could see a deeper pullback to retest it again. 

[C12]

On the Daily chart we can see bullish price action off the 50% retracement of last year's breakout. 

Now at trendline resistance so would expect some reaction here. If we breakout to the upside here, a pullback to the trendline would be a good long entry.

[Guest]

On 26/12/2017 at 10:43, C12 said:

On the Daily chart we can see bullish price action off the 50% retracement of last year's breakout. 

Now at trendline resistance so would expect some reaction here. If we breakout to the upside here, a pullback to the trendline would be a good long entry.

Nice analysis. We retested that high after breaking the ST DTL.

I haven't posted any trades since July/August last year when around 16.50 Silver etc, we are still at 16.50 ish all these months later. Been waiting for volatility to kick in as was getting tired of the chop. Volatility in the markets returned this week with a vengeance, but I will be on sidelines for another week or so before jumping back in.

[C12]

On 10/02/2018 at 21:56, RichRock said:

Nice analysis. We retested that high after breaking the ST DTL.

I haven't posted any trades since July/August last year when around 16.50 Silver etc, we are still at 16.50 ish all these months later. Been waiting for volatility to kick in as was getting tired of the chop. Volatility in the markets returned this week with a vengeance, but I will be on sidelines for another week or so before jumping back in.

I think gold still looks good for a move up from here. Thought we might have had a bit more of a pullback back to $1,300 but looks like it just wants to make a run.