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vand

Platinum - who's buying?

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13 minutes ago, flim said:

Palladium is higher than gold again, this consistency does not just happened in a bubble 

there is a short squeeze in Palladium 

There is also significant backwardation in Pd. Spot is $50 above the monthly contract. 

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Hi all. New to the topic and the board. I've been a buyer of platinum over the past 3 months or so. The main reason being the cost of production is far higher than the current spot price of $800. I've seen quotes of All in sustaining costs (AISC) of anywhere between $950 and $1100 per ounce. The weak Rand has lowered mining costs somewhat in major producer country South Africa but that has its limits. I don't see this going back to $2000 any time soon but for those with a longer term outlook hoovering up cheap platinum now while it is below cost will certainly prove profitable in the next 3-5 years. Well that's my thoughts anyways.

I like that no one is buying (only 2 of us seem to have bought any on this last group order) and I even managed to get a half ounce pamp bar below spot recently!

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On 11/08/2017 at 21:12, Cornishfarmer said:

Out of interest when people are buying platinum what is your get out strategy?

do dealers buy if so do they pay vat? And what % do they pay compared to spot? or planning to sell coins to others?

Buy it VAT free via a European dealer then sell to a UK dealer if/when the time comes. Some European dealers are selling platinum Britannias for barely 8% over spot just now so there is much lower risk to being caught out price wise. I got 97.5% of the current spot price selling a few Palladium bars/coins back to Baird's recently. Sure I could have got a bit more selling privately but I more wanted to move quickly and effectively swap for platinum. 

Platinum has never been this cheap in history relative to Gold and Palladium and the cost of production is much higher than current spot price... but that doesn't mean to say it can't get cheaper just cos I bought some :)

https://pmtrend.com/ratio-history?q=platinum-to-gold

https://pmtrend.com/ratio-history?q=platinum-to-palladium

Edited by GoldenGekko
Added links to pmtrend

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Welcome GoldenGekko.

Nice to see another member who is seriously keen on Pt.

I've been accumulating 1oz/month since August. I agree with your outlook. It may take a little while for the ship to turn around, but once it does we will look back on this as a generational low.

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I just bought a platinum eagle... man the price over spot was like $90 over spot for a 1 ounce platinum eagle.  That's the best I could find.

 

Anyone buying fractional platinum?  I don't want to get burned on paying $60-100 over spot when I buy 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins

What's the best value?  To me it seems that the least over spot is the American eagle on most sites? Any suggestions guys?

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On 08/01/2019 at 20:28, flim said:

Palladium is higher than gold again, this consistency does not just happened in a bubble 

there is a short squeeze in Palladium 

Supply is being squeezed by Putin (they produce over half the world’s supply of Palladium and they are making out like bandits on this!)....but car makers have switched to platinum in the past if necessary if costs dictate.....enjoy the ride though.

Edited by Oldun

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And then there is this which argues for Palladium (pgm = platinum group metals)

http://www.mining.com/new-toyota-technology-blow-platinum-palladium-price/

Toyota launched its first mass-produced fuel cell car – the Mirai or "future" in Japanese – for the European market in Volkswagen's back yard in October 2015.

Toyota has the backing of Tokyo for its push into hydrogen. In Japan the government will give you $25,000 – nearly half the total cost – if you buy a fuel cell vehicle. The country also has a program to install hydrogen fuel cells into 10% or 5.3m Japanese households to replace grid electricity by 2030.

The hydrogen society is probably further into the future than its promoters want you to believe but its impact on platinum could be enormous.

There’s a simple reason – today's fuel cell cars need a full ounce of platinum versus a 2–4 grams PGM loading for your average gasoline or diesel vehicle.

Given fuel cell cars' still hefty price tag, Toyota is spending billions on research to reduce that requirement. But even if they manage to cut it in half we are looking at 12-15 grams per vehicle.

Edited by Oldun

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Platinum is looking cheap again in £, near the 2015 lows, now is your chance, anyone who missed out last time.  

I checked the dollar price and it is even cheaper than the 2015 low, at first looked like a breakdown, but going back a bit with my untrained eye, it appears to be trying to retest 2008 lows around $770ish - that is arguably strong resistance level yes?

If we break 2008 level then $650/$450 on the cards? If not a breakdown, then platinum needs to catch up with palladium over next few years to achieve historical normality, normally double at minimum. Palladium might fall to help us out a bit with that one though.

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I also think that it's so low and a good value play now

The thing is the short term 6 month trend is so downward it will be hard to reverse especially if the economy takes a dive... It's an industrial so maybe it could break $650 @KDave If it does I'm a buyer.  I'm actually buying it now too and dollar cost averaging 5% of my PM portfolio into Platinum.

I'm not touching Palladium at it's current prices.....

But really nobody knows for sure...palladium might be the future for cars but really things might change with technology, the economy (or recession) etc... but good to hedge with it

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I think other uses will be found if it stays this low or goes even lower. Also heard that the Japanese like platinum jewlery so this may pick up. A reasonable punt at this level I would think. 

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Yes Palladium people need to be transferring some from that metal into platinum imho, but as you say who really knows. I have 10% in platinum now and will go upto 20% if prices fall further, and also if I can get hold of it low premium after Brexit. 

Anyway, I have bought a couple more 1 oz platinum brits this week -That should help push the price downwards for you all :P $650 here we come :D

Edited by KDave

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Interesting work on the platinum/palladium ratio, things are looking similar to 2001. Palladium/Platinum ratio setting up for some big falls in palladium and big gains in platinum over the next few years.

2001 was the end of the tech bubble? History rhymes. I believe palladium was a beneficiary of this bubble, a decent amount of palladium supply was used in electronics, speculative demand drove the price as now. When the tech bubble popped, both metals fell initially, then platinum started its decade long rise and palladium did not recover former highs for two decades. It is similar now, the driver this time is the car industry, speculatively palladium is benefiting from the move towards petrol/electric at a time when the car industry is at maximum stretch. Similar but different. If I was a betting man I would say a crash in the automotive industry (or rather the lending side) will be the trigger this time that starts the role reversal. Depending how similar the markets behave, palladium has more parabolic to do, platinum will bounce around for a bit longer. The bubble in automotive industry today is in credit rather than cars. We will see. 

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Chris Aaron has been lurking on this thread, I'm pretty sure of it 😃

Pt/Pd ratio is simply unbelieveable right now. Whether it is a huge opportunity to make money in Pt or a huge opportunity to lose money in Pd we will have to see.. I think possibly a combination of both. I will continue to accumulate my 1oz of Pt every month 

Edited by vand

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platpall.thumb.png.d49209f8d2d376a56bdae1315e080a94.png

The ratio is extreme, a rarity. The downside in platinum looks limited but depends on how severely palladium falls/ratio corrects up. In a recession that affects the car industry both would likely fall, though limited in platinum. Tempting to make direct comparisons to last time and say palladium has another decent move higher before the fall but lets see. It will make sense after the event and the details come into focus.

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3 hours ago, youngmetalstacker said:

 

I also feel like going for some Platinum now.

My Pt. Britannia arrived this morning - and I'm very pleased with both the coin itself, and the price I paid for it.

Not sure at this moment in time how much more platinum I'll invest in, but if the price is right...…...;)

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20 hours ago, Panicbuying said:

How do you buy Platinum? Physical or ETF?

It depends how long you expect to hold.

The spread on ETF is lower than coins when it comes to buy and sell. Coins are an upfront cost, ETF ongoing cost to hold the position. Which one costs more depends on the length of time you are holding. Selling ETF is easy, selling coins takes some work.

21 hours ago, Panicbuying said:

And if you buy coins/bars, are they as easy to sell as Gold and Silver?

Selling to a dealer they will offer 90% or lower than spot as a starting position, liquidity is limited compared to gold, but similar to silver. From my research - Hatton Garden offer 80% on silver and platinum 1oz coins, gold they offer 97%. Royal mint bullion offer 90% on silver and platinum, 96% on gold. At the moment. Who knows in the future. Selling privately, from experience I have sold 1/10 and 1 oz platinum coins for spot plus premium but it holds risk that ETF/selling to a dealer does not carry.

I buy coins from Europe to pay less VAT, I can't really recommend anyone in particular. I have used Europesilverbullion (Estonia based I think) in the distant past, I used Goldsilber.be recently as they were the cheapest and I can say they offer the best in customer service banter having had to email them about my order. :P 1 oz coins are best premium wise, cheaper than silver in % per ounce but not as cheap as gold. From GS.be a 1oz Britannia was £57 over spot, similar to gold at current price. The 1/10th ounce premiums are higher cost but arguably easier to sell privately. Good questions by the way, plan how to sell before you buy. 

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The exchange with GS.be was something different. I paid for my order and waited 10 days before emailing as to when my order would be shipped. "Next tuesday probably" was the reply. I politely asked why it took nearly two weeks to ship after payment - were they waiting for stock? "It can take up to two weeks, it said so in capital red letters on the confirmation email, did you not read it? We have over 2000 ounces of platinum to ship." I said no I didn't read it, thanks for letting me know and good luck with your shipments. I had an email from the courier the next day informing me the package was on its way :lol:

A strange bullion dealer, but cheap. 

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