Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?

[4Nines7Hills]

The stocks markets main driving factor over the last couple of years was QE  now a lot of countries have stopped and are switching to to QT the markets with obviously go down 

[Guest]

the crash as already begun, i wont call it crash though, but more like bear market has started alreaady

[vand]

Bounce done?

Sentiment repaired. Business as usual. BTFD.. Except the has been nothing to suggest the long term downtrend trend has changed. Markets have put in a lower high. Now we await to see how deep the next selloff takes us.

FTSE looks absolutely feeble.  It's actually down by 11% YoY. That's just a fact. 

 

[KDave]

As Peter schiff says - in a bear market, the counter trend rallies are higher.  

[HawkHybrid]

19 minutes ago, vand said:

Bounce done?

 

best guess is a move up to maybe 2700-2720 on the s&p500 before

a multi week move lower.

 

21 minutes ago, vand said:

Except the has been nothing to suggest the long term downtrend trend has changed.

I'm not convinced a long term retracement has started yet.

 

HH

[PansPurse]

22 minutes ago, ashu013sharma said:

quite a nice post, you can check out the equity prices on Advisorymandi stock market app for the regular updates. 

 

[vand]

Markets have definitely rolled over from their 4 month rally off the Dec lows.

The big picture is that this is now undoubtedly a large consolidation phase stretching back to the start of 2018. The overdue bear market has (just about) failed to materialise so far, but so too has any further upside. 

 

[HighlandTiger]

The fact that this thread has been going for well over two years tells me one thing.

No one can predict the future, and you'd be better off asking advice from Gypsy Rose Lee, than any armchair expert here.

"Investing" in stocks and shares, is no different to "gambling" on the horses, they just pretend it is. 

 

[vand]

32 minutes ago, HighlandTiger said:

The fact that this thread has been going for well over two years tells me one thing.

No one can predict the future, and you'd be better off asking advice from Gypsy Rose Lee, than any armchair expert here.

"Investing" in stocks and shares, is no different to "gambling" on the horses, they just pretend it is. 

 

As I've explained before, I make very good money doing just this. And I know you don't believe me, which is more your problem than mine..

But I do agree with you that "no one can predict the future", which is why I posed the thread topic as a question

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, vand said:

Markets have definitely rolled over from their 4 month rally off the Dec lows.

this is not confirmed yet.

1 hour ago, vand said:

The overdue bear market has (just about) failed to materialise so far,

the move up from dec 2018 has to be confirmed to

finish before the we can reliably say we are in the

next phase.

believe it or not but s&p 500 is currently battling it

out to see whether or not we turn back up to make

a new high.

 

HH

[vand]

2 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

this is not confirmed yet.

the move up from dec 2018 has to be confirmed to

finish before the we can reliably say we are in the

next phase.

believe it or not but s&p 500 is currently battling it

out to see whether or not we turn back up to make

a new highs.

 

HH

This depends on which particular index you are looking at. RUT for example is nowhere near to threatening new highs and would confirm my previous post.

[HighlandTiger]

26 minutes ago, vand said:

As I've explained before, I make very good money doing just this. And I know you don't believe me, which is more your problem than mine.

I can't be the only one that is surprised at this comment, seeing that the majority of your predictions never seem to come true.

You may well be making a fortune, who is to truly know. But I've been around since the internet started and the people who profess to be making money out of something on an open forum, rarely are.

If I had a method of making money, I would tell no-one, in case my "edge" was exposed and others jumped on the band wagon and that "edge" was lost.

But whatever keeps you happy.

[HawkHybrid]

the russell 2000 does not need to make new highs.

we are in the ending part of a bull market. we are

expecting to reach a kind of blow off top. during

such an occurrence the smaller players in the market

are not expected to make new highs.

it is only the largest companies of the large american

market that is expected to make this final push higher.

we are saying that there will be divergence between

the small and large companies as people recklessly

pile their money into the latter.(ie unsustainable blow

off top)

 

HH

[vand]

@HighlandTiger I don't exactly blert about it every day, but one of the better known techniques I use is amply explained if you care to look back and search for it. And I understand the environment can't sustain anything but a tiny number of people exploiting it...  I also have a few techniques which I have yet to share with anyone. As you say, gotta keep my edge.

 

[vand]

Historical precedent suggests a retest of the Dec lows is all but inevitable?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-03/retest-december-lows-appears-inevitable

 

[HawkHybrid]

14 minutes ago, vand said:

Historical precedent suggests a retest of the Dec lows is all but inevitable?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-06-03/retest-december-lows-appears-inevitable

 

 

is zerohedge claiming that we are on average 34 days

or within 7 weeks of retesting the dec 2018 lows?

I agree that we'll retest those lows but I'm thinking

multiple months away.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sB1UXTQU7zM

 

I agree with david frost, s&p 500 is expected to rally

from 2700-2750 area, probably soon if it does so.

markets can still go down down afterwards but it

all takes time and markets don't go up or down in a

straight line.

 

HH

[vand]

This latest rally is now nudging new all time highs and so changes the "bear market imminent" prognosis. 

Technicals indicate that further upside now likely and this bull market will run into at least an 11th year:

https://www.seeitmarket.com/this-stock-market-chart-looks-nothing-like-peaks-2000-and-2007/

historically the markets go into party mode following the first rate cut of a loosening cycle:

 

Things could change back around to the bearish case, of course. We know historically the average time lag between yield curve inversion and market peaks, and are now coming into that window.

 

But like any good investor I change my mind when the facts change, and for now the facts have changed to support the ongoing bull case.

 

 

[Pipers]

FED rate cut markets very happy, plus Microsoft boosts Friday.  Easy money boosting markets 

     

[Pipers]

On 03/06/2019 at 11:29, HighlandTiger said:

I can't be the only one that is surprised at this comment, seeing that the majority of your predictions never seem to come true.

You may well be making a fortune, who is to truly know. But I've been around since the internet started and the people who profess to be making money out of something on an open forum, rarely are.

If I had a method of making money, I would tell no-one, in case my "edge" was exposed and others jumped on the band wagon and that "edge" was lost.

But whatever keeps you happy.

 

On 04/07/2019 at 10:48, MrGeorge said:

Ive been laughing at vand posts for a long time now. A broken clock is more accurate than him.

You both are wicked b-stards, stop taking the piss. Predicting the future is hard leave Vand alone.   

 

[KDave]

As a permabear what I find incredible is the lack of recession despite the length of time since the last one, all time highs in everything from stock to national debt, bonds playing up, Brexit is a coming, yet everything is fine. Perhaps its the QE by the back door in bonds, perhaps the promise of lower interest rates. Perhaps everything is actually fine? 

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, KDave said:

As a permabear what I find incredible is the lack of recession despite the length of time since the last one, all time highs in everything from stock to national debt, bonds playing up, Brexit is a coming, yet everything is fine. Perhaps its the QE by the back door in bonds, perhaps the promise of lower interest rates. Perhaps everything is actually fine? 

 

stock market permabears don't make any money?

look at the multi decade rise in the stock market?

we are much better than we were decades ago

with the improvements in application efficiency,

 technological advances and access to materials

and knowledge etc.

 

HH

[KDave]

Permabears who fail to fight their nature through diversification don't make any money. FTSE all share is my personal favourite, I just think its going to end badly 

[Michal]

Remember that they announce crush about 1-1,5 year after it happened. I think we are in recession right now and it started in December. That is my subjective opinion and no body have to agree  with it. 

[HawkHybrid]

16 hours ago, KDave said:

Permabears who fail to fight their nature through diversification don't make any money. FTSE all share is my personal favourite, I just think its going to end badly 

 

if the very long term dominant trend has been up,

(is still up?) are permabears not having trade

setups that are against the trend?

 

HH