Equities going parabolic - Is the crash near?

[vand]

Value investors... don't say "nothing is cheap" 

Here is one market that is cheap: https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=CHN

China's Buffett Indicator is at a record low.

[Lowlow]

14 minutes ago, vand said:

The market recovery after the Q1 dip this year was very narrow - led by tech & the FAANGS. Now if these are breaking down there could be nowhere left to run.

We all know how long in the tooth the bull market is, and how it has defied the odds. It would be silly to think that it can't do it again, but the odds much surely be much higher this time that we really have seen a major top.

And so many things against it ... rising rates, market breadth, it's a long, long list ...

 

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Added 0 minutes later...

11 minutes ago, vand said:

Value investors... don't say "nothing is cheap" 

Here is one market that is cheap: https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=CHN

China's Buffett Indicator is at a record low.

And don't forget CASH!

Cash is very cheap, though it got a little more expensive today.

[vand]

The last few sessions have been brutal.. the FTSE is barely 2% off the lows of Q1:

[vand]

Shcomp continues to make new lows. This is a good time to start accumulating imo, although it is very likely there is some further downside. On a value basis it is ridiculously cheap.

[HawkHybrid]

nasdaq futures have breached the october low.

 

HH

[vand]

New Lows for the FTSE:

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=UK%3aUKX&uf=0&type=128&size=3&sid=123797&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=8&rand=1506403890&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=0&maval=9&lf=4&lf2=2&lf3=0&height=665&width=720&mocktick=1

[Guest]

On 31/05/2018 at 15:45, RichRock said:

 

Tick Tock...

 

Tick Tock...

 

[vand]

This bull market is dying.

Russell 2000 now in breach of Q1 lows:

[vand]

The FTSE itself is only a few % away from entering that favoured definition of a bear market being a 20% fall

Other indexes such as the DAX are already there.

[vand]

Today is quickly turning into another bloodbath. 

VIX has spiked.. lots of fear in the markets now. 

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, vand said:

Today is quickly turning into another bloodbath. 

VIX has spiked.. lots of fear in the markets now. 

I'm seeing red across my screens, looks like panic about to set in, more popcorn. DOW at 24K, failure here could see rapid drop.

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, RichRock said:

I'm seeing red across my screens, looks like panic about to set in, more popcorn. DOW at 24K, failure here could see rapid drop.

Looks like PPT to the rescue just now.

[Guest]

4 hours ago, RichRock said:

Looks like PPT to the rescue just now.

Popcorn back in cupboard. PPT bounce DOW 500 points from 23950 to 24450. Nothing to see here folks, the economy is in great shape because, well, just because.

[Oldun]

Bit of a stink at how Morgan Stanley is allowed to trade after the bell....why is anyone surprised ?

https://nypost.com/2018/12/07/nyse-is-freaking-out-looking-for-leakers-after-post-expose/

 

https://nypost.com/2018/12/06/ny-stock-exchange-let-morgan-stanley-make-after-hours-trade/

[vand]

Yesterday's action has set us up for a short term bounce, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the traditional December rally play out now.  If it doesn't manage a decent bounce, then I think the market is in real trouble.

[HawkHybrid]

I'm reading it as a 2-3 month rally until another pivotal

point.

 

HH

[KDave]

Hopefully we will see traditional December lows in gold for a nice Christmas present as well then, though sterling isn't helping. 

[Pipers]

I'm not sure when the dip will come, the dip will be in  usd hopefully the Prime minister will be sorted by then and the UK will be stable by then; so we can join in and buy.

[Pipers]

Again not sure when to buy into the stock market I was thinking 6250 if it gets there.  What do you guys think. 

[Guest]

On 12/12/2018 at 13:40, Pipers said:

Again not sure when to buy into the stock market I was thinking 6250 if it gets there.  What do you guys think. 

Personally I'm on sidelines till after Brexit, FTSE fairly stable considering all the news in the last week from the Government comedy show. I think we'll see 6250 in future, however unsure if good entry point if the knife falls hard.

 

Edit: On sidelines only on all things GBP

[Guest]

On 11/12/2018 at 11:04, Oldun said:

Bit of a stink at how Morgan Stanley is allowed to trade after the bell....why is anyone surprised ?

https://nypost.com/2018/12/07/nyse-is-freaking-out-looking-for-leakers-after-post-expose/

 

https://nypost.com/2018/12/06/ny-stock-exchange-let-morgan-stanley-make-after-hours-trade/

It stinks, the casino makes it's own rules and then cries foul if anyone spots it.

[vand]

The bulls will be slightly dismayed to see the market sink back down on Friday. This is not how BTFD is supposed to work.

Next week is a very important week. The broad RUT index is on the brink of entering 20% bear market territory. If that goes I think its only a matter of time before the other indexes follow. 

The US markets as usual are distorting the global picture, where more than half of the primary indexes are already well in bear market territory.

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, vand said:

The bulls will be slightly dismayed to see the market sink back down on Friday. This is not how BTFD is supposed to work.

Next week is a very important week. The broad RUT index is on the brink of entering 20% bear market territory. If that goes I think its only a matter of time before the other indexes follow. 

Totally agree, BTFD seems to be turning into STFR (Sell The Fking Rip). Looking forward to next week's moves. RUT2000 is a poorly bull standing on one leg.

Popcorn back out of the cupboard for Mon_Fri.

[Oldun]

The wording of Fed meeting next week is critical as to how things will go...

[vand]

6250 probably wouldn't be a disastrous place to start buying if you have a 10-15 year timeframe, but it would be 20% from the all time highs.. still a bit too expensive for me, considering we've had a 10 year expansion with an unknown amount of economic misallocations which will need to be sorted out. I need to see the UK firmly in recession before I buy the FTSE. That's when there will be blood and the streets and panic selling in the markets. I suspect 6250 will just be a brief stop on the way to this eventual state of affairs, so make sure you have plenty of ammo left to buy heavily when it gets really messy.