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£GBP heading to oblivion


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I completely agree we sit atop a debt mountain of short sighted voters greed and we are Greece 2.0. Triple locked Pensions, universal healthcare, social care, benefits up the ying yang, open borders and housing benefits. Hard to respect the people of the UK when so many are on the teat.

We had an opportunity to make cuts but the Tories bottled it. The required cuts will have to be forced upon us Greece style imo.

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5 hours ago, Scuzzle said:

Something to bear in mind is that Draghi is due to step down soon and it's Germanys turn to provide a replacement, will monetary policy be as loose under a German and will Italy suffer from any change in policy?

That will be interesting.  Draghi has done what he's to do to prop up the Eurozone.  An incoming Banker will have the same problems and same lack of tools, so likely have to do the same, German or not.  Eventually the Germans and other northern nations will have to accept to supporting the south, or else break up the Euro some how.  Monetary union without fiscal union and transfers isn't going to be sustainable. 

And thats why a Greece style scenario is unlikely in UK.  We have full control fiscal policy (albeit they did not use it enough in past 10 years), we have a sound tax base (people pay them), can adjust interest rates with fewer constraints, ultimately devalue in a really tight spot.  More over we can act, the Euro institutions have little executive authority.  One thing markets abhor is indecision, they'd rather the wrong action taken assertively then dilly-dallying around for months.  

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14 minutes ago, Martlet said:

One thing markets abhor is indecision, they'd rather the wrong action taken assertively then dilly-dallying around for months.  

... which is exactly why this thread was started in the first place. 

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Carney is at it again, with his forward guidance,the BOE will not raise interest rates in may now so we are all worse off again this comes just one day after figures are out that suggest the British public are just starting to spend because of the rise in the £ now the idiot will stop that to save his friends in the stock market.

  He cannot say that wages need pulling back!!  He really is a sh-t and does not care about anyone in the real world .

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Yeah,  weak results.  The bonuses were paid out a couple of weeks ago so they had to cook the books for a month or so, then their taxes will be due in May though it would of been transfered in USD so they can make even more .  

To be honest i think its 3 things one the disappointing results today on growth though it was expected, rally in the USD, 3 The idiot Carney!!  

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  • 1 month later...

IMO sterling is under valued again and £1- 1.35usd /1.4usd  is a range that is value.  

I have been stuck recently where to invest, i believe we are in the final stage now. 

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If your not happy with sterlings low when buying precious metals, then you can simply open a brokerage account and buy a very small quantity of gbp/usd at the same time as buying your precious metals and you will make up the loss when the gbp recovers, thats what i do ?

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To set up an account with the broker i use its just basic i/d requirements the same as opening a bank account, the particular trade if doing it now would be to buy the gbp/usd december futures, the minimum you can buy is £13257.00, the margin requirement is 1% of the contract value ie £132.57, but i would advise a deposit of at least £500 into the account for this trade to ride the ups and downs, because if your balance falls below the margin requirement of £132.57 then your trade will be closed by the broker, so your depositing £500 and this is enabling you to buy £13257.00 of pounds against the us dollar, so if the pound went back up to 1.5000, your profit would be £1750.00 approx, obviously if the pound fell by that amount to 1.1500 you would have a loss of £1750 approx, i have been buying precious metals recently and placing this trade with contract value to match my purchases, once placed i simply forget about it and see if my view of the pound recovering is correct later down the line, if it does recover, then the profit of the futures contract makes up the difference for what i consider to be my initial loss purchasing precious metals with this very poor exchange rate, if your interested in opening a broker account then pm me as we can both have £50 for free ?  

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And dont be put of thinking its too complex, its just a bet with someone else and these bets can be for future dates, hence called futures and the december futures on the gbp/usd are priced higher than the current spot rate in the market, this is because your only using £132.57 of your own money to buy £13257.00 of pounds, so your using 100-1 leverage and borrowing £13124.43, so the higher december futures price simply reflects the interest on the money your borrowing, your selling us dollars which have a higher interest rate and your buying pounds which have a lower interest rate 

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What do you mean exactly? If you feel you have lost money because you have previously purchased pm's with a lousy exchange rate and you think the exchange rate will revert back sometime then opening a trading account will allow you to bet on this happening, simples really, same as if you fear pm's are going to tank, and your stack will devalue you can bet them down, its called hedging your risk

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Not really since I have only recently started stacking and I have a split between bullion and numismatic coins, the latter of which I am fairly certain I have made money on. I have a background in risk and investment but this was within corporate bonds, pensions and gilts. Where offsetting risk was not my job, that was fund management etc. Above my pay grade lol. Your discussions re off setting risk intrigued me. I do feel that gold will continue to fall perhaps into the last quarter and it may even fall out of the support zone. I will then look to buy when spot hits $1200 per oz. Since I have no intention of selling and my exposure is minimal any loss in my Bullion stack would be relatively small. I am currently using numismatic coins as my hedge, this strategy appears to be working. But you can never be too safe. As I said I will give some thought to your practice of hedging through futures, I was not aware that the costs were so low. I will come back if I feel the punt is something that might interest me. 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Right it is the BOE decision today on interest rates IMO all the good news is out already with the BOE only putting up rates because the £ is weak , there is a recession on the horizon the money flow needs to be in the real economy, even the Fed has raised rates.  The UK needs higher interest rates anyway real inflation is running at 8-10% in most people's homes do not believe figures (basket of goods) the media and Gov use it's nonsense  and with the need for more house building ultra low interest rates make no sense unless you do not have any intention of building any homes.  All that ultra low rates has done for normal people is to keep them in very low paid jobs , increase their rent, put the price of buying a house up or out reach,  got rid of the free market. 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 12/08/2018 at 19:32, bluemoon said:

Well that rate hike didn't do a thing, did it!

That's what I was saying, they would put rates up when in reality interest rates should be at least 4%-5%.  The BOE are stuck they want everyone in debt on one hand but need savers to take wealth off for their five card trick!

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