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gsr nearly 85


craig12

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42 minutes ago, MikeOxlong said:

Im not sure why so many people seem to fixate on gsr ever since i became interested in precious metals it has always been a point of discussion but it has never appeared to regress to a gsr of yesteryear

You say that but 5 years ago the gsr was in the low 30's, I personally think We'll see that again in the future as silver is a small market and commodities work in cycles.

I know a lot of people don't take much notice of the gsr but for me it's the best way to judge if silver is undervalued or overvalued.

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If doesnt say that silver  should rise, Just as likely that gold can fall to lower the ratio  as it is for silver to rise .... Or a combo of the both 

Gold Apart from the blip 2011-2013  gold is still high over the last 10 years

Silver apart from the 2011-2013 blip silver is quite average/low over 10 years.

 

Or the ratio  may never happen again

 

 

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It matters, the historical charts don't lie and many investors watch them as the available physical in the ground supply has not changed. 

This GSR could go either way in the short to medium term, however in the longer term the GSR will close. 

Opportunity it could be? Yoda

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Not so sure I agree. Mean reversion is all very well but that assumes nothing really changes in supply/demand/usage etc. The two metals are entirely different these days.

Gold pretty much stays the same in the grand scheme of things but silver is entirely different. It used to be used for coinage, no more; in photography, no longer.

It has several other uses in industry but this aspect is constantly changing; silver could be superceded by other, cheaper metals at any time. On the other hand, new uses could also be found. For these, reasons, it is foolish IMO to depend on history repeating itself and the GSR to return to what it was. Anything could happen.

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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Gold and silve have been linked at the hip since ancient times, to suggest that that link has broken down is to suggest that "this time it's different." I think I'll take 4000 years of field testing over flavour of the month theories to explain why extremes will become the new norm. 

I'm pretty certain the fundamentals between gold and silver are the same today at 83 gsr as they were when it was half that number just a few years ago.

 

and if you want to look at how them two metals behaved at the start of the secular bull, just look back and see how silver lagged back in 2002-2004 before catching up.. and then some. 

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2 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Not so sure I agree. Mean reversion is all very well but that assumes nothing really changes in supply/demand/usage etc. The two metals are entirely different these days.

Gold pretty much stays the same in the grand scheme of things but silver is entirely different. It used to be used for coinage, no more; in photography, no longer.

It has several other uses in industry but this aspect is constantly changing; silver could be superceded by other, cheaper metals at any time. On the other hand, new uses could also be found. For these, reasons, it is foolish IMO to depend on history repeating itself and the GSR to return to what it was. Anything could happen.

Show me your past predictions that came good and we can go from there.

GSR will close over time as sure as change does and will happen.

 It is not about history repeating but a brand new cycle. Silver sentiment (in general) is low and the price is low! People wait....go figure ;)

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I've not yet decided what gsr may tell us ....but I am sure comparing full historic gsr is. Gold and silver today is nothing like it was several hundred years ago for the following reasons

Gold and silver is no longer directly linked to money (ended 1970s)

up until industrial revolution and compounded by electronic revolution gold and silver had no use apart from looking nice and been a sign of wealth.

 

I would need to calculate the date where gsr is still applicable to modern society

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I can't be having that silver is no longer a monetary metal, it holds every attribute that accounts as money and that doesn't change just because our governments no longer regard it as so.

When gold becomes expensive people naturally turn to silver, it's happened time and time again and I really can't see why this will change, gold is a leading indicator and silver a lagging for this reason.

Go ask someone to name precious metals, they'll firstly say gold then silver, then ask them "if an ounce of gold's nearly £900 how much will an ounce of silver be?" i've asked this question a few times and most of the time the answer will be around £100, silver is a precious metal and is still money no matter what they tell us, I fully expect to see below a 50 to 1 ratio in the not too distant future.

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42 minutes ago, garthy said:

I can't be having that silver is no longer a monetary metal.

 

 

it is a precious metal it has value and is a sign of wealth but isn't money any more ... Like diamonds and pearls and we can get gsr to 50-1 by the gold dropping to the 2008 rate of £700 Oz. I'm not trying to be argumentative I'd like my silver to go up in value dramatically too but that doesn't mean it will happen. ...especially not in the short term I do hope I'm wrong and you are right.

I think 55 -60 gsr will happen which is still way lower than the 85

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i crease at this    i offer on best offer on e bay    £16 oz on silver  everybody declines it :rolleyes:  theyre not wired up right

After fees, they would only get around £13.80 of your money. Whether or not the £16 includes postage, you can surely understand them declining your offer?

Spot is close to £11/oz. Vat, which most would have paid, would take that to £13.20 without any premium at all.

Just buy from STG, as you have been told a million times before.

Stacker since 2013

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8 hours ago, Vern said:

Show me your past predictions that came good and we can go from there.

GSR will close over time as sure as change does and will happen.

 It is not about history repeating but a brand new cycle. Silver sentiment (in general) is low and the price is low! People wait....go figure ;)

I wasn't making any predictions, quite the opposite in fact.

I certainly don't want to participate in a childish "my predictions are bigger and better than yours" contest.

If there's one thing I've learned over many years of investing and trading is don't let your opinions and trades become a matter of ego and just "having to be right".

Don't forget, people were saying the GSR was too high at 70 and would soon revert.

Silver isn't cheap by historical standards either, it has spent approx 75% of the last century below $10 (inflation adjusted).

 

56d8db463816f_silverprice.JPG.542f595872

 

Profile picture with thanks to Carl Vernon

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If you go by monthly prices, with GSR at 83, this opportunity to buy silver this cheaply relative to gold comes around just over every year and a half (on average).

GSR extremes since 1968:

****************

As the GSR moves higher, the time spent above that level looks like this:

 

GSR | Months > above | % of time since 1968

80 42 7.3%

81 39 6.8%

82 34 5.9%

83 32 5.5%

84 28 4.9%

85 25 4.3%

86 22 3.8%

87 21 3.6%

88 20 3.5%

89 17 2.9%

90 15 2.6%

91 12 2.1%

92 8 1.4%

93 6 1.0%

94 3 0.5%

95 2 0.3%

96 2 0.3%

97 2 0.3%

98 2 0.3%

99 1 0.2%

100 1 0.2%

101   0.0%

 

 

2 standard deviations is represented by gold/silver of >84.5 

2.5 standard deviations is represented by gold/silver of >92.9

3 standard deviations is represented by gold/silver of >95

 

Makes sense to buy ONLY silver at this level. If it goes even more extreme, eg >2.5SDs, then back up the truck - these are once a decade opportunities. >3SDs is sell the family heirlooms - these are once in a lifetime opportunities (as I believe we have just seen in crude oil).

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I am convinced that the GSR will never once again get to historical levels often banded about. 15/1 will never be seen again, this was the days when coinage was either in silver or gold. Coinage is not only in neither of those metals today, but the way things are going, coinage in any type of metal will be a thing of the past.

People keep bigging up silver, I'm starting to think that silver has had it's day and may soon be relegated to cheap jewellry and nothing more.

It used to be as a store of wealth in coinage, but that's gone.

Industrially, it used to be needed for photography, but that's gone.

It used to be needed for electronics, but new methods and materials, are superseeding it.

Silver's saving grace was in solar power, but again new technologies are creating more efficient solar panels without using silver.

Silver has antibacterial properties, but there are cheaper and more efficient antibacterial  products.

The fact that there are very few companies devoting their time and money to solely digging up silver, should tell you all you need to know. Most silver now is a secondary metal that is a byproduct, so to speak of mines digging for primarily other metals and minerals. 

The demand for silver in the coming decades, other than in silver coins and bars, (for stackers and collectors, both private and institutional), will be getting less not more. Unless a new use for silver can be found. Which is always a possibility. 

I think Silver has one more big price rise left in its lifetime, after that, I think it will be worth less and less as the coming decades unfold.    

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Yes, targeting a rate of 15:1 or anything else based on a historical "by decree" fix is folly. That is why I consider only the period of 1968-present, where both metals have traded freely, and look at what the highs and lows are from that dataset.

 

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1 minute ago, vand said:

Yes, targeting a rate of 16:1 or anything else based on a historical "by decree" fix is folly. That is why I consider only the period of 1968-present, where both metals have traded freely, and look at what the highs and lows are from that dataset.

 

It is always folly to pick and choose periods that only fit into your ethos. 

Using the past to predict the future is almost impossible. You dismiss the pre 1968 period, because of changes in how silver was being treated, but fail to understand that we could be on another cusp of changes to how silver is being used and treated.

In 2040, people like yourself could be saying "I only consider the period of 2017 to the present"

 

ps. I guess you don't see the irony in your comment of "both metals have been traded freely" ;)

 

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1 hour ago, HighlandTiger said:

It is always folly to pick and choose periods that only fit into your ethos. 

Using the past to predict the future is almost impossible. You dismiss the pre 1968 period, because of changes in how silver was being treated, but fail to understand that we could be on another cusp of changes to how silver is being used and treated.

In 2040, people like yourself could be saying "I only consider the period of 2017 to the present"

 

ps. I guess you don't see the irony in your comment of "both metals have been traded freely" ;)

 

Not at all, I am well aware of the manipulation and supression at play in the metals market. Just gives me more opportunity to load acquire more at a better price.

Gold & Silver are not what they used to be from a monetary perspective, so the price behaves more similar to a tradeable commodity at this time, but I am equally sure that they will once again become money at some point. History has shown that all fiat currencies eventually return to their intrinsic value. We will see gold-backed Renminbi when people lose faith in the current system - why else do you think the chinese are buying all they can get their hands on? It's not to build bridges out of.

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It is always folly to pick and choose periods that only fit into your ethos. 

Using the past to predict the future is almost impossible. You dismiss the pre 1968 period, because of changes in how silver was being treated, but fail to understand that we could be on another cusp of changes to how silver is being used and treated.

In 2040, people like yourself could be saying "I only consider the period of 2017 to the present"

 

ps. I guess you don't see the irony in your comment of "both metals have been traded freely" [emoji6]

 

Not at all, I am well aware of the manipulation and supression at play in the metals market. Just gives me more opportunity to load acquire more at a better price.

Gold & Silver are not what they used to be from a monetary perspective, so the price behaves more similar to a tradeable commodity at this time, but I am equally sure that they will once again become money at some point. History has shown that all fiat currencies eventually return to their intrinsic value. We will see gold-backed Renminbi when people lose faith in the current system - why else do you think the chinese are buying all they can get their hands on? It's not to build bridges out of.

I'm 100% certain you are wrong in your beliefs for how the future will pan out. We are in unchartered territory thanks to how the Internet has transformed the way business and life in general is conducted.

But one thing I've learned from this forum that changing people's beliefs one way or another is a task both impossible and a waste of time.

All I'll say is good luck to everyone however you plan your stacking for the future.

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1 hour ago, HighlandTiger said:

I'm 100% certain you are wrong in your beliefs for how the future will pan out. We are in unchartered territory thanks to how the Internet has transformed the way business and life in general is conducted.

But one thing I've learned from this forum that changing people's beliefs one way or another is a task both impossible and a waste of time.

All I'll say is good luck to everyone however you plan your stacking for the future.

I believe we're all broadly one the same team here, but all communities have a habit of eating their own. All I will point out is that I believe the more things change the more they stay the same. Let's not forget that the world was supposed to run out of oil (look what happened there), the Internet meant that earnings were no longer important (look what happened there) and central banking had turned gold into a barbarous relic (look what happened there). Fundamentals will always reassert themselves, but the gyrations along the way have people believing polar opposites at tops and bottoms. 

 

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Why do you want to change people's beliefs?

They are just as valid as your own.

in that case should no scientific or philosophical efforts ever be undertaken. After all is not the reason for publishing a theory but a method to change people's beliefs.

Just a thought.

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