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Silver as a Protector of Wealth - Humbug !


Pete

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Either way, I'd hedge that silver has a good future in either a future growth world, or a deflated world that increasingly operates with efficient and ecological systems like solar etc for the little bits of energy needed.

Chances are even that in our near term future we'll all have a lot less, so while we're 'rich' relative to the vast majority of people on this planet and our insilvency hasn't been realised, then buying silver at any price seems sensible.

Times will unlikely be this good again for our lifetimes unless you're one of the 0.001%

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  • 7 months later...

Doing a bit of threadmining, and dug this one up. So much facepalm!

First mistake is buying on a multi-year top (of course, that's easy to say in hindsight). But now compounding that mistake by abstaining when we are at muti-year bottom. If your £cost/oz is important to you, which it clearly is, then you should be prepared to buy more at this lower price. If you ultimately believe that you will not lose on your investment, that prices will someone get back to your £oz of 84p/gm, then why are you NOT buying more, especially if you can afford the cash to do so?

It's classic "greed near the top" and "fear near the bottom" sentiment (sorry to the OP, but it's true). 

If you have studied the history of silver you would see that the market is highly volatile and goes on wild, wild swings. A few simple spreadsheet models will show you had you converted a certain amount of your income into silver every month since 1968, without fail, month upon month, you would have gone through drawdowns as large as 80-82% even in nominal terms, never mind real terms (depending on if you buy a fixed amount, or cost-average). For gold it's about 46-50%.

If you aren't aware of that or can't stomach that sort of drawdown then you have no business buying the metal in any sort of quantity that you shouldn't be prepared to write off.

I know pound cost averaging is derided by many, but they are plain WRONG. It is THE smartest way to build your stack, mitigates the risk of buying everything near a major top, and lets you take advantage of lower prices. If you had adopted a pound cost-averaged you would have 42% more ounces of silver compared to a buy-fixed amount for exactly the same outlay, and 26% more gold.

 

 

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