Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[vand]

Patience... reversals are right around the corner:

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2018/06/do-you-have-what-it-takes-to-be-a-contrarian.html

[Jarred]

Should I be buying silver now, or waiting for it to drop more? 

Can anyone tell if it's going to make a big move up or down?

I'm still learning and would appreciate any help

Thanks

[BackyardBullion]

3 minutes ago, Jarred said:

Should I be buying silver now, or waiting for it to drop more? 

Can anyone tell if it's going to make a big move up or down?

I'm still learning and would appreciate any help

Thanks

If we knew we would be billionaires ?

Ask yourself why are you buying? If it is for 30+ years, pension, retirement, passing down it really does not matter.

If you are looking for a quick flip, silver is probably not going to be the best bet for that!

 

[HawkHybrid]

some are expecting a near term low soon.

imo if you see a good deal then now is as good a

time as any to make a long term physical bullion

buy.

 

HH

[StackerCollector]

JP Morgan shorting silver again last week! So they can buy more physical silver at a better price. Where are they at now? 800 million silver ounces?

Due to this silver manipulation I completely neglect technical analysis. All stackers want to see their ounces rocket to the sky, but I am sure we will see

a deflation before we enter a inflation/ hyperinfaltion. So the banks and the elite can get their hands on silver and gold at a bargain price when no one will

have any interest in precious metals. And then they`ll reverse it and it will too late for most to participate in the metals bubble. Just my 2 cents.?

[sovereignsteve]

4 hours ago, StackerCollector said:

Due to this silver manipulation I completely neglect technical analysis

agree entirely, I would go so far as reject not neglect

[sixgun]

8 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

agree entirely, I would go so far as reject not neglect

Technical analysis works in the manipulated market. The true fundamentals of the precious metals markets we know are not reflected in price action.

i know people who trade options who don't look at the chart, they don't know what the company does and hardly know what the ticker symbol stands for. They just work off probabilities and the principle no-one knows what will happen to price in the time frame of the options they are selling. It actually works most of the time and so is profitable.

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, sovereignsteve said:

agree entirely, I would go so far as reject not neglect

 

technical analysis is not a miracle method. it cannot

predict the future. what it can do is try to makes sense

of some of the movements and form a trend. eg dec 2015

gold had a low. winter 2016 gold had another low.

following the trend people bought in winter 2017 hoping

that the trend would continue. it's a probability based on

previous results. sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't.

 

one of the biggest problems with technical analysis are bogus

claims made by people who are biased/don't know what they

are talking about. one of the best known technical analysis

trend followings is the old cyclical 'sell in may...' for stock

markets. this is a multi decade accurate trend. the accuracy

currently stands at ~80%.

 

HH

Edited July 4, 2018 by HawkHybrid

[Tn21]

From past experience I say go with you gut at some point it does pay off. 

[Bullionbilly]

Dropping again

[craig12]

will it break $14.99

[KDave]

19 minutes ago, craig12 said:

will it break $14.99

Aye.

[StackerCollector]

$15,20... love it. This is the beginning of a massive decline. I'm sure (I hope) ? (next interest rates increase will send it lower again)

[sixgun]

44 minutes ago, StackerCollector said:

 ? (next interest rates increase will send it lower again)

You would think interest rate increases would push down on the gold price. Remember the market claims silver is an industrial metal, not money, so should respond to the rising stock market not interest rates. Hmm why isn't silver at $50 then i wonder? Of course we know gold and silver are linked and silver is money, so as you say you might imagine metal prices will fall with rising interest rates.

However when you look at the response once the dust settles, interest rate increases generally send the price of gold higher (and with it silver). These rate increases have been priced in months ago. i do not except to see any interest increases. There was panic when the 10 year Treasury went over 3%. This represents a very key level and the end of the bull market for bonds (rising bond prices = falling yields). If the Fed as it claims it will, pushes rates higher then bond prices will fall. Then we enter a bear market for bonds. These markets tend to run for decades. Decades of rising bond yields and so a rising cost for government debt. Debt is at record levels now, imagine rates 2 or 3 times higher - we know where this would end. i have heard suggested the Fed, ESF and other manipulative entities will crash the stock market to push money into bonds to keep the rates down. The stock market will be sacrifice on the alter of government debt. There is huge disinvestment from Treasuries. The Fed says it is going to unwind its balance sheet - sell Treasuries. Who are they kidding. They will not be able to keep bond yields down if that actually happened.

i see the BBC controlled propaganda outlet was telling the people austerity was not enough, higher taxes were needed to control government debt at £1.8 trillion. Now factor in rates climbing worldwide. We are tipping over the edge and will fall if interest rates were actually jacked up.

[KDave]

12 minutes ago, sixgun said:

i see the BBC controlled propaganda outlet was telling the people austerity was not enough, higher taxes were needed to control government debt at £1.8 trillion. Now factor in rates climbing worldwide. We are tipping over the edge and will fall if interest rates were actually jacked up.

Yes and we are already taxed to the hilt, one of the most taxed peoples on the entire planet. There is a point when they will raise taxes and start to receive less in return because of the impact it will have on the wider economy. I believe we are at that point already, certainly when the mass of people's pay has been eroded in real terms for years now, with tax rises on top there can't be much give left. Pushing on a string.  

[sixgun]

22 minutes ago, KDave said:

Yes and we are already taxed to the hilt, one of the most taxed peoples on the entire planet. There is a point when they will raise taxes and start to receive less in return because of the impact it will have on the wider economy. I believe we are at that point already, certainly when the mass of people's pay has been eroded in real terms for years now, with tax rises on top there can't be much give left. Pushing on a string.  

Yes i saw the BBC mouthpiece standing there telling the people that taxes rises could be substantial.

https://archive.org/details/BBCNEWS_20180717_210000_BBC_News_at_Ten/start/1800/end/1860

We see the usual images to set in the minds of the people they will have to accept these rises or else the NHS will be lost. Of course the plan will be to put up taxes to breaking point AND privatise the NHS further.

Surely it is not just me who sees all this on the odd occasion i tune in to the controlled propaganda channels?

Edited July 19, 2018 by sixgun

[KDave]

I do see it. Government spending is out of control and we have not had austerity or anything like it. Some real cuts before tax rises would be nice.

I had a letter come through from HMRC with the break down of how the tax I pay is spent, a nice little pie chart entitled 'How we spent your taxes'. I saw that a quarter of our taxes are spent on welfare. Imagine my shock.  

I have lost my letter to photograph, but here is an example of what I mean;

 

A scary amount is spent on servicing the debt already let alone in a high rate environment. 

[sixgun]

i see right at the top they mention the EU contributions. Look it is the tiniest sliver. Got to get that bit into the psyche.

Then we have overseas aid. i see the biggest contributor to the terrorist organisation the White Helmets is the UK government. I see they are evacuating the White Helmets to resettle them in Canada. Surely the Syrian people still need their help. Kids still need hosing down with water for no reason at all and then calling it a gas attack. Why would that not be needed? This is how your tax is being spent, causing war, taking down governments and spreading democracy. The usual stuff.  Doesn't it make you proud? i know i'm filling up as i type this now.

i mean these people were bringing humanitarian aid to the Syrian people. It's a damned shame they had to go. What would they have to fear? Surely they will be proclaimed as national heroes?

Edited July 19, 2018 by sixgun

[StackerCollector]

Re: interest rate hikes - I see it on the terms of international money flows. Every month hundreds of millions of fiat currency wll go into assets that "promise" to pay out interest and this money will in some part come out of the metals market. As well as private individuals that will want some ROI after rates have been that low for years and there will be hardly any interest in the gold and silver by the general public. Don't think that this is already priced into the current metals market. Just my little forecast in the hopes of buying silver at $10 an ounce in the next year or so.

[sixgun]

Clearly you have your own opinions. That the interest rates rises the Fed has been banging on about for months is not priced in. That a rise would take the market by complete surprise. i have followed Fed announcements for years. From my experience there is an immediate algo driven oscillation both ways and then a rise in price.

You speculate that fiat will divert away from the precious metal market and into yield bearing assets. The cash going into gold and silver comes from China, India, Russia, Iran, Turkey - not the Western general public. They are asleep. When rates are moving up the last thing you want to be in is bonds. A bond yielding 1% is priced at $100. The bond yields move to 2%. Your bond is now valued at $50. Rates move up to 5%, your bond is valued at $20. Bondholders might get a few percent a year more but their bond prices implode. So you will put your money in the bank for a few percent - you run the risk it will get bailed in - nice.

What about the oil - gold Chinese contracts? What about the gold trade notes coming through? The world outside the West is turning away from the USD and towards monetisation of precious metals.

Fiat is constantly depreciating. Silver cannot be mined profitably at $10. Watch this video on the cost of gold mining. The big miners are making next to nothing. Those imagining prices can go to sub $10 silver and $800 gold just do not realise what the cost is to produce gold and silver. The banks would love this. They can steal the mines for pennies on the dollar.

 

Edited July 19, 2018 by sixgun

[sovereignsteve]

10 hours ago, KDave said:

There is a point when they will raise taxes and start to receive less in return because of the impact it will have on the wider economy. I believe we are at that point already

Yes it's called the Laffer curve. a little controversial and theoretical but IIRC we were supposed to be at the peak of the curve when Brown was in office. I believe taxes are higher now than even during the height of the Labour era.

The next step to try and persuade the public to pay even more taxes and not evade is to sell the idea of a NHS tax, who could refuse to pay that?

 

[StackerCollector]

12 hours ago, sixgun said:

You speculate that fiat will divert away from the precious metal market and into yield bearing assets. The cash going into gold and silver comes from China, India, Russia, Iran, Turkey - not the Western general public. They are asleep.

Totally agree! ?

[Martlet]

9 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Yes it's called the Laffer curve. a little controversial and theoretical but IIRC we were supposed to be at the peak of the curve when Brown was in office. I believe taxes are higher now than even during the height of the Labour era.

The next step to try and persuade the public to pay even more taxes and not evade is to sell the idea of a NHS tax, who could refuse to pay that?

 

The Laffer curve is only controversial if you call it by that name amongst left wing politicans.  If you call it a supply/demand curve no one bats an eyelid, that's essentially what it is.  The trouble is, its bang on the money.  Recent examples, the UK haven't had petrol duty prices for years because they reached the peak, and the top rate 50% income tax return less revenue than when it was reduced to 45%.  UK tax as % of GDP is down from peak-Brown, though we are above the lowest tax take of Brown era - austerity is a lie. 

[sixgun]

6 hours ago, Martlet said:

The Laffer curve is only controversial if you call it by that name amongst left wing politicans.  If you call it a supply/demand curve no one bats an eyelid, that's essentially what it is.  The trouble is, its bang on the money.  Recent examples, the UK haven't had petrol duty prices for years because they reached the peak, and the top rate 50% income tax return less revenue than when it was reduced to 45%.  UK tax as % of GDP is down from peak-Brown, though we are above the lowest tax take of Brown era - austerity is a lie. 

i hear the word austerity. To be honest i do not know what it practically means. i knew a guy who claimed benefits. He would say the people where he signed on were constantly looking to stop people's benefits. i feel pretty sure he said they had a quota - they were expected to stop so much benefit a month. I suspect certain sectors are being squeezed but at the same time there are £billions being spent on nonsense. i remember talking to a plumber who was working on a house i was building a few years back. He knew a guy who worked in a neighboring council. He would say that half the people there could be got rid of and it would make no difference.

There are so many $billions - if not £trillions wasted.

i truly hate the system. i do not accept anything it tries to do to me. i do not accept anything told me, at least not until i have scrutonised it. There are so many lies - so many people accept they must do this and that, they must pay this and that. The Council Tax is illegal. Council tax does not apply to our homes, only business properties.

The councils actually have a legal duty to pay all our debts and liabilities.

i repeat - the councils have a duty to pay all our debts and liabilities - so why are they charging us Council Tax?

Here is the legislation - https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/Vict/51-52/41/section/79

79 Incorporation of county council.

(1). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . F1

(2) All duties and liabilities of the inhabitants of a county shall become and be duties and liabilities of the council of such county.

There you are people, go look at their legislation.

I took a Penalty Charge Notice for a friend - i did battle with the council. i was not going to pay. The circumstances were not standard but in any case i denied there was a debt and said but if you believe there is i require you on behalf of the council to discharge the debt as per Local Government Act 1888 s79 (2). She said they were not a county council - i told her under the terms of the Act the city council was a county council. It went away.

Almost everything we are told is a lie. We agree to pay these parasites when they should be paying us. They are our servants, now serve.

 

 

 

[KDave]

Impressive recovery today, I see volatility like this as more evidence we are going back down to the lows.