Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[engire]

Anyone read this? What do you think? Does it make sense to expect a rise in value?

https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/india-soaks-up-physical-silver-supply-craig-hemke/

Quote

Divide Indian demand into the total mine supply number and you find that India is on pace to import one third of all the silver mined globally in 2018.

...

Thus, watch these global physical demand numbers closely in the months to come. If Indian and global physical silver demand continue to surge, the digital derivative pricing system must respond with higher prices or it will risk collapse and failure.

 

[sixgun]

Asia is soaking up precious metals - India is pretty keen on silver. This has been going on for years. At some point the rubber band will snap and price will reset.

Currently there is bullish divergence, particularly on the silver chart.

 

Edited July 21, 2018 by sixgun

[KDave]

2 hours ago, engire said:

Anyone read this? What do you think? Does it make sense to expect a rise in value?

https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/india-soaks-up-physical-silver-supply-craig-hemke/

 

I am sceptical of anything fundamental (supply/demand story) affecting the silver price short term. The silver story has been fundamentally bullish for years, yet the market has not agreed. To see what the market is thinking looking to the charts shows you what it thought and arguably can tell you what human nature will do next, but again it is hit and miss, often contradictory depending which chart, though overall arguably better than the fundamental picture at predicting price short term. 

[HawkHybrid]

3 hours ago, engire said:

Anyone read this? What do you think? Does it make sense to expect a rise in value?

https://www.silverdoctors.com/silver/silver-news/india-soaks-up-physical-silver-supply-craig-hemke/

 

 

it's flawed. eg

Quote

Led by India, the world is on pace to consume all of the silver produced in 2018

 

when someone buys silver they do not consume silver.

eg I buy a 1 oz britannia 2015, I then plan to sell it for

a profit at some point. I am not consuming 1 oz silver in

2015. the 1 oz silver is still available to be sold by me.

 

Quote

Indian silver demand has increased exponentially over the past ten years.

how has that helped the silver price since 2011?

 

there's too many ifs and not enough hard data.

 

HH

[Uksilverstackers]

"Those imagining prices can go to sub $10 silver and $800 gold just do not realise what the cost is to produce gold and silver"

 

I have read somewhere that current Platinum price is less than it costs to mine....

[Bumble]

Most silver (about 60%) is consumed: it is used industrially and it is not valuable enough to recycle. There is a healthy supply however, and plenty of silverware that could be scrapped.

Commodities can go below their cost of production, sometimes for years. Uranium has been substantially below the cost of production since the Fukushima disaster. Closing a mine is expensive. It is not like turning off a tap that can be turned on again later. There are lots of regulations to be complied with to ensure that the mine is safe and non-polluting.

In the case of gold, the stock to flow ratio is so high that potentially the price could go below the production cost for ages, as long as there are parties willing to sell their stock.

[PansPurse]

Damn, silver looks to be in free-fall today. Bodes well for the last weekend of the group order...

[StackerCollector]

Silver heading to $10 within the next 12 months

 

[StackerCollector]

"Those imagining prices can go to sub $10 silver and $800 gold just do not realise what the cost is to produce gold and silver"

 

I'm sure that spot $10.80 for an ounce of silver in 2008 was below the mining costs. If silver drops again to this level, some mining companies will go bankrupt, some will refinance, some will halt their production and/or reduce their production costs.

This might then be a nice opportunity to get some bargain mining stocks, like Kinross, Harmony, Barricks. Anyone else looking to get into mining stocks?

[Ajohn151]

On 16/08/2018 at 04:01, StackerCollector said:

"Those imagining prices can go to sub $10 silver and $800 gold just do not realise what the cost is to produce gold and silver"

 

I'm sure that spot $10.80 for an ounce of silver in 2008 was below the mining costs. If silver drops again to this level, some mining companies will go bankrupt, some will refinance, some will halt their production and/or reduce their production costs.

This might then be a nice opportunity to get some bargain mining stocks, like Kinross, Harmony, Barricks. Anyone else looking to get into mining stocks?

Yup. AG, PAAS and ASM. 

[Laurens88]

pff from 12.80 euro at 11:00 and now a 21 cent price drop to 12.58 euro at 20:23 😅

Edited August 28, 2018 by Laurens88

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/record-goldsilver-shorts

 

worth a skim/read. existing positions in shorts means

guaranteed buying potential as these positions will be

closed at some point in time. what constitutes a big

net short position is less of a science.

 

HH

[Martlet]

1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

https://www.gold-eagle.com/article/record-goldsilver-shorts

 

worth a skim/read. existing positions in shorts means

guaranteed buying potential as these positions will be

closed at some point in time. what constitutes a big

net short position is less of a science.

 

HH

Its shows some cognative dissonance to make the claim that short selling is bullish.  Yes, high levels of short selling do often precede a bullish move, but thats usually seen retrospectively.  Short sellers are expecting to buy at a lower level.  If we were to accept the article's logic, long futures would be a bearish signal and i bet the author wouldn't be making that assertion. 

Edited September 9, 2018 by Martlet

[sixgun]

1 hour ago, Martlet said:

Its shows some cognative dissonance to make the claim that short selling is bullish.  Yes, high levels of short selling do often precede a bullish move, but thats usually seen retrospectively.  Short sellers are expecting to buy at a lower level.  If we were to accept the article's logic, long futures would be a bearish signal and i bet the author wouldn't be making that assertion. 

The number of longs and shorts are ALWAYS exactly equal. For every contract to buy there is a counter party selling. What may be bullish or bearish from an historical viewpoint is who holds the majority of the shorts and longs.

The precious metal markets are managed through those banks that act on behalf of the Western central banks including the BIS. They generally act together which is how they manage the market - they act in a unified, concentrated way. At the moment 'managed money,' as it is defined in the COT report, is very short. Managed money is the speculative element of the market. It is not those aforementioned banks. We have the banks on one side and managed money on the other side.

We have for the last 4 years had wash and rinse cycles where price is taken up to a predetermined level and then taken down. Never allowed to breakout, kept within a range. When price is bottoming we have seen managed money short and the banks long. When price is topping out we see managed money long and the banks short. In the article it says

Quote

Gold and silver were thrashed this past summer.....epic all-time-record futures short selling by speculators was the real culprit.  These unprecedented shorts must soon be covered with proportional buying, which is super-bullish for gold and silver prices in the coming months.

So the banks are positioned long. A short squeeze commences, the speculators close their short positions and the banks profit from the move. We hear that for the first time in a long time the banks are net long. That even JP Morgan is net long.

[HawkHybrid]

5 hours ago, sixgun said:

The number of longs and shorts are ALWAYS exactly equal.

 

not always true. trading long and short is not the same as

buying and selling. I can borrow someone else's paper

metal and sell it short(at a cost) in the hope to buy at a

later date and profit from the difference. during the time

that I've already sold and have yet to balance my position

by buying a replacement, I'm net short with no counter

long. this is what the author is referring to. shorting as it

happens is bearish as it is selling. open shorts that have

yet to close(buy a replacement) is considered bullish as

short positions need to be closed to make a profit and

the short is effectively a contract to buy at a later date.

 

HH

[sixgun]

36 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

not always true. trading long and short is not the same as

buying and selling. I can borrow someone else's paper

metal and sell it short(at a cost) in the hope to buy at a

later date and profit from the difference. during the time

that I've already sold and have yet to balance my position

by buying a replacement, I'm net short with no counter

long. this is what the author is referring to. shorting as it

happens is bearish as it is selling. open shorts that have

yet to close(buy a replacement) is considered bullish as

short positions need to be closed to make a profit and

the short is effectively a contract to buy at a later date.

HH

When i go short 100 Amazon shares i borrow these from another trader A. i then sell these shares to trader B. i have sold shares i did not own, they were borrowed. At some point i will have to pay back the entity i borrowed from trader A.

i have been approached many times by the broker to see if i am willing to lend shares.

There are 100 shares with two traders 'owning' them. Both traders A and B own 100 Amazon shares but there are only 100 Amazon shares in the pot, so how can this work out?

To balance this apparent 200 shares i am minus 100 Amazon shares, these cancel out 100 Amazon shares and so there are still only +100 shares of Amazon.

To reconcile this i must buy 100 Amazon shares and put 100 shares in the pot, so i am square with no shares and both A and B have 100 shares each.

Futures are not the same as shares.

If we consider silver futures contracts. Trader X wishes to go short 1 full silver contract. He promises to sell 5000 oz of silver at some future date - trader Y wishes to go long, to buy 5000 oz of silver at some future date. So he takes the other side of Trader X's promise to sell by promising to buy. A contract MUST have two sides to exist. In the case of futures a long and a short. If it is one sided then it is simply an offer to sell or buy and no contract has been made.

This is the current Commitment of Traders position for silver on the COMEX. Count all the long positions and then subtract all the shorts - the sum comes to zero. Everything must balance.

SILVER - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC.                                                                                                                 Code-084691
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders - Futures Only, September 04, 2018                                                                                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     :          :                                              Reportable Positions                                                      :   Nonreportable
     :          :  Producer/Merchant/ :                                :                                :                                :     Positions
     :   Open   :   Processor/User    :          Swap Dealers          :         Managed Money          :       Other Reportables        :
     : Interest :   Long   :  Short   :   Long   :  Short   :Spreading :   Long   :  Short   :Spreading :   Long   :  Short   :Spreading :   Long  :  Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     :          :(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 TROY OUNCES)                                                                                        :
     :          :    Positions                                                                                                           :
All  :   212,391:    22,368     33,018     54,355     29,092      4,698     55,559    104,482     11,137     27,502      7,553      5,852:   30,920    16,559
Old  :   212,391:    22,368     33,018     54,355     29,092      4,698     55,559    104,482     11,137     27,502      7,553      5,852:   30,920    16,559
Other:         0:         0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0:        0         0
     :          :                                                                                                                        :
     :          :    Changes in Commitments from:       August 28, 2018                                                                  :
     :   -14,938:      -158     -8,520      1,281     -3,553     -7,240     -4,871      8,347     -2,216      1,392        550     -1,849:   -1,277      -457
     :          :                                                                                                                        :
     :          :    Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                                     :
All  :     100.0:      10.5       15.5       25.6       13.7        2.2       26.2       49.2        5.2       12.9        3.6        2.8:     14.6       7.8
Old  :     100.0:      10.5       15.5       25.6       13.7        2.2       26.2       49.2        5.2       12.9        3.6        2.8:     14.6       7.8
Other:     100.0:       0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0:      0.0       0.0
     :          :                                                                                                                        :
     :          :    Number of Traders in Each Category                                                                                  :
All  :       249:        19         12         23         12         13         35         62         29         72         18         13:
Old  :       249:        19         12         23         12         13         35         62         29         72         18         13:
Other:         0:         0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0:
     :-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
     :             Percent of Open Interest Held by the Indicated Number of the Largest Traders
     :                          By Gross Position                       By Net Position
     :               4 or Less Traders     8 or Less Traders     4 or Less Traders     8 or Less Traders
     :                 Long:     Short       Long      Short:      Long      Short       Long      Short
     :----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All  :                 26.6       25.9       36.3       40.5       23.0       25.3       32.2       39.3
Old  :                 26.6       25.9       36.3       40.5       23.0       25.3       32.2       39.3
Other:                  0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0

 

Edited September 9, 2018 by sixgun

[HawkHybrid]

in your example trader a has a contract to have 100 amazon

shares replaced. trader b actually has 100 amazon shares.

I(or you) have a contract with a fixed deadline to replace

100 shares. trader a or trader b does not counter my

position with a long contract to sell by a fixed date. the counter

long for my short trade has yet to be made by me. time is

very important here. I'm going to argue that going long eg

a contract to sell is not the same as buying. just as going

short, (contract to buy) is not the same as selling. every

trade has someone on the opposite side of the trade is

not the same as every long has an equal and opposite

short made at the time of the trade.

the point of the article is that short contracts have a fixed

deadline which sometimes can create an opportunity for a

short squeeze.

 

HH

[vand]

£11 Silver.

£600 Platinum.

 

These are back-the-truck-up prices.

[Laurens88]

22 hours ago, vand said:

£11 Silver.

£600 Platinum.

 

These are back-the-truck-up prices.

Maybe a stupid question, but do traders buy back Platinum?

Edited September 11, 2018 by Laurens88

[vand]

37 minutes ago, Laurens88 said:

Maybe a stupid question, but do traders buy back Platinum?

Of course they do. At what price they buy back is another question entirely.

[vand]

The whole PM sector has woken up.

Clear H&S bottom completed in the mining sector. GDX up 6%!

[gji25]

On ‎24‎/‎04‎/‎2014 at 13:45, crazy hippo said:

Ladies, and Gentlemen, boys and girls, those of confused or mixed genders, young and old.

 

I would like for this to be the tread where we comment on the price movements of silver.

as i saw silver drop to 11.29. I thought to myself what is going on, and who knows the answer.

 

This will be the thread to discuss, movements, up or down, causes. Lets see how this pans out.

 

as i write this silver is 11.42, up 1.1% from the low of 11.29.

 

for me i can see silver being smacked down and trying to get back on it’s feet. as it climbs it gets smacked down again.

no change there then after 4 years its £11.50

Edited October 28, 2018 by gji25
typo

[BackyardBullion]

Apparently the €18,500 worth of orders in the Group Order was not enough to bolster silver prices....

Down 1.5% today!

 

[smilingsocks]

I often have settled on the idea that if the stock market does well..silver does not..the main investors go where the quick bucks can be made..and why not..similarly if stocks across the board get hit..silver rises quick..I know there is a lot more to consider..but that's where I am

[vand]

On 31/10/2018 at 16:21, smilingsocks said:

I often have settled on the idea that if the stock market does well..silver does not..the main investors go where the quick bucks can be made..and why not..similarly if stocks across the board get hit..silver rises quick..I know there is a lot more to consider..but that's where I am

Yes, precious metals historically have a fairly well defined negative correlation with equities - this is why they are a good hedge. Mainstream financial advice often suggests to hold equities and bonds, but in fact bonds move positively with stocks at least half the time, so the holder of a mixed bonds/stocks portfolio may not be nearly as well diversified as they may think. 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2018 by vand