Silver Monitoring Thread £ (GBP) only.

[matrawr]

It's to do with the increase in US nonfarm payrolls which in turn is giving the Fed more of a reason to increase interest rates and lower gold/silver prices

Edited February 2, 2018 by matrawr

[sixgun]

4 minutes ago, matrawr said:

It's to do with the increase in US nonfarm payrolls which in turn is giving the Fed more of a reason to increase interest rates and lower gold/silver prices

These are excuses.  The media hunt around for excuses to explain what happens. The move in metal prices, the precipitous drop was not caused by a change in NFP, this is the excuse.

This is no criticism of you, the so called experts who pretend to know do not apply joined up thinking. They are liars and propagandists at best.

The silver price dropped 2.86% today. Why would the value of silver fall 2.86% in a day (which the pundits say is not money but is simply an industrial commodity) all on the back of a possible 0.25% change in interest rates?

The numbers are hardly different from the estimated numbers which are all manufactured anyway. Estimates are produced which will get beaten, the banks kick off the selling and the lemmings follow. A big flush was intended. The banks knew the numbers before the release and the dealers have their instructions given. The very idea that there is actually less than 5% unemployment is a nonsense. This is all La La Land. Buy your silver and buckle in.

[swAgger]

3 hours ago, PansPurse said:

But... That's brilliant! You've found a system for resisting impulse purchases... Unrelated I may have just picked up another half sovereign 

Yeah it's a wonder i ever get anything ordered!

No, but seriously, nice dip in spot for the week. I'll happily use the weekend to catch up on some items on the 'to-get' list. (You can thank me for that on monday when it dips further )

[matrawr]

12 hours ago, sixgun said:

These are excuses.  The media hunt around for excuses to explain what happens. The move in metal prices, the precipitous drop was not caused by a change in NFP, this is the excuse.

This is no criticism of you, the so called experts who pretend to know do not apply joined up thinking. They are liars and propagandists at best.

The silver price dropped 2.86% today. Why would the value of silver fall 2.86% in a day (which the pundits say is not money but is simply an industrial commodity) all on the back of a possible 0.25% change in interest rates?

The numbers are hardly different from the estimated numbers which are all manufactured anyway. Estimates are produced which will get beaten, the banks kick off the selling and the lemmings follow. A big flush was intended. The banks knew the numbers before the release and the dealers have their instructions given. The very idea that there is actually less than 5% unemployment is a nonsense. This is all La La Land. Buy your silver and buckle in.

Well the silver price is dependent on how the overall economy is performing. They release the data to a select few before officially releasing it but I don't believe whether the data is manufactured is relevant to silver price.

Yes it's a only 0.25% increase so that would be 1.75% if they were to raise rates, US savers would be getting the best returns on their savings in something like 10 years and the retail banks add on % as a bonus.

Also a big drop or increase in silver usually levels out over the following days.

Also there'll be a time when they are going to miss estimates although whoever does the predictions was probably being cautious.

I still think silver prices will head lower.

[sixgun]

1 hour ago, matrawr said:

Well the silver price is dependent on how the overall economy is performing. They release the data to a select few before officially releasing it but I don't believe whether the data is manufactured is relevant to silver price.

Yes it's a only 0.25% increase so that would be 1.75% if they were to raise rates, US savers would be getting the best returns on their savings in something like 10 years and the retail banks add on % as a bonus.

Also a big drop or increase in silver usually levels out over the following days.

Also there'll be a time when they are going to miss estimates although whoever does the predictions was probably being cautious.

I still think silver prices will head lower.

All markets are managed - manipulated. These mean the same thing, it is just that managed sounds better somehow and manipulated sounds underhand (which it is).

You say there is a correlation between the silver price and the economy. i would say the authorities want us to believe there is but if there really is a correlation then we should be able to see this on the charts.

So do we see a correlation between the silver price and the 'overall economy' and what is that correlation? As the economy 'improves' does the price of silver go up or down? It has to move b/c you say the silver price is dependent on the economy.

If we accepted the statement that silver is not money but it is an industrial commodity, then we would assume if industrial performance rose so would the price of silver.

The Dow Jones has risen from 10 000 in mid 2010 to 26 000 today. So the index has risen 160%.

The price of silver is about the same price as today as it was in mid 2010. So despite the Dow Jones going up 160% silver has not moved.

Are the stock indices are good guide of the economy? - well i would say they used to be but certainly since 2009 they are little to no guide at all. These numbers are manipulated. We know this by looking at the PE ratios of the top companies (never mentioned these days). Amazon has never turned a profit and yet its stock the last time i looked was over $1400 a share. It is La La Land. The PE ratios are so high in many cases it would take several decades to get your money back on the price of the shares.

All the numbers are inventions and manipulations. Stock price that bear no relationship to earnings and the prospect of earnings. Statistics that say there is full employment when over half the population isn't working and cannot find a job.

Silver mines have been on their knees. They have been losing money at a time demand has been robust. They are not exploring like they should. This will lead to major problems down the road. There is no true price discovery. There is no supply and demand economics operating.

If silver is an industrial metal there really is no reason why it violently moves when a Fed official speaks. It is an industrial metal. i had another look at the price of silver - it fell over 4% after the NFP data yesterday.

Are they projecting on the basis of the Fed might raise interest rate 0.25% the economy will slump over 4%. Why on earth would the Fed raise rates if that were the case?

Gold and silver are the only real money. They are the silver bullet to fiat currencies which are imposters. Fiat currencies always go to zero. They are a one-way bet and that is a losing one. For decades the authorities have attempted to push gold and silver out of the equation. You will find statements that silver is the most under priced asset in the world. No-one knows what the price should be but for sure the phony data coming out of Washington did not merit a 4% fall in price. There is no link between the economy and the silver price. There should be. The most vital industrial metal on the planet has its price suppressed into oblivion. So cheap it is thrown into landfill never to be recovered.

Eventually it will no longer be possible to manipulate the price anymore and price will go up 10 fold, 20 fold, 50 fold.. and the pundits will be surprised or give another lame excuse and make out they knew all along.

[matrawr]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

All markets are managed - manipulated. These mean the same thing, it is just that managed sounds better somehow and manipulated sounds underhand (which it is).

You say there is a correlation between the silver price and the economy. i would say the authorities want us to believe there is but if there really is a correlation then we should be able to see this on the charts.

So do we see a correlation between the silver price and the 'overall economy' and what is that correlation? As the economy 'improves' does the price of silver go up or down? It has to move b/c you say the silver price is dependent on the economy.

If we accepted the statement that silver is not money but it is an industrial commodity, then we would assume if industrial performance rose so would the price of silver.

The Dow Jones has risen from 10 000 in mid 2010 to 26 000 today. So the index has risen 160%.

The price of silver is about the same price as today as it was in mid 2010. So despite the Dow Jones going up 160% silver has not moved.

Are the stock indices are good guide of the economy? - well i would say they used to be but certainly since 2009 they are little to no guide at all. These numbers are manipulated. We know this by looking at the PE ratios of the top companies (never mentioned these days). Amazon has never turned a profit and yet its stock the last time i looked was over $1400 a share. It is La La Land. The PE ratios are so high in many cases it would take several decades to get your money back on the price of the shares.

All the numbers are inventions and manipulations. Stock price that bear no relationship to earnings and the prospect of earnings. Statistics that say there is full employment when over half the population isn't working and cannot find a job.

Silver mines have been on their knees. They have been losing money at a time demand has been robust. They are not exploring like they should. This will lead to major problems down the road. There is no true price discovery. There is no supply and demand economics operating.

If silver is an industrial metal there really is no reason why it violently moves when a Fed official speaks. It is an industrial metal. i had another look at the price of silver - it fell over 4% after the NFP data yesterday.

Are they projecting on the basis of the Fed might raise interest rate 0.25% the economy will slump over 4%. Why on earth would the Fed raise rates if that were the case?

Gold and silver are the only real money. They are the silver bullet to fiat currencies which are imposters. Fiat currencies always go to zero. They are a one-way bet and that is a losing one. For decades the authorities have attempted to push gold and silver out of the equation. You will find statements that silver is the most under priced asset in the world. No-one knows what the price should be but for sure the phony data coming out of Washington did not merit a 4% fall in price. There is no link between the economy and the silver price. There should be. The most vital industrial metal on the planet has its price suppressed into oblivion. So cheap it is thrown into landfill never to be recovered.

Eventually it will no longer be possible to manipulate the price anymore and price will go up 10 fold, 20 fold, 50 fold.. and the pundits will be surprised or give another lame excuse and make out they knew all along.

I'm not disagreeing with you, true the media can and do distort things to an extent until they do uncover the true unemployment rate then maybe that'll have an impact on markets but there are people that do not work but are investors or living off savings where they aren't relying on benefits.

I wouldn't say the silver price is solely dependent on the economy but depends how much the industry goes through plus it gets recycled so there's still who knows how much is underground.

Thing is gold and silver do tend to take a back seat manipulated? I wouldn't disagree but of course the stock markets and crytos have been in the news so the good ol gold and silver lag behind and unless retailers start accepting gold and silver as payment I wouldn't say it's money but an asset that after time you can turn into money.

Of course I hope the prices do shoot up and hopefully we have a prolonged period of increased prices but I'm not claiming to know what it would take for that to happen.

Of course the 4% drop is an overreaction that's why it balances out afterwards maybe a 1-2% increase on Monday but if it drops then I would be stumped as to why.

Also with silver being the cheapest of PM's and used as an industrial metal if it gets relegated to an industrial metal that would have an effect on prices although I'm not sure if that would happen because eventually the reserves would be depleted and then would be bumped up to a PM. Whichever market you're in there are a variety of things to take into account.

Edited February 3, 2018 by matrawr

[HawkHybrid]

imo there's nothing peculiar or wrong with what happened

friday. my reasoning is this. silver follows gold. silver is

almost a fomo(fear of missing out) buy due to high gold

prices. gold has risen the month of january by a not

insignificant amount($100). it needs to either temporarily

trade lower or trade sideways for a bit to allow everyone to

catch up and accept the new price. traders took advantage

of the news on friday to make money betting on a fall in the

prices of both gold and silver. silver got hit worse because

it's more volatile and maybe because the american markets

dow etc also took a battering(2%). near term lower prices

were coming it's just a matter of when and what 'reason'

would trigger it. there is no reason for silver to rise yet and

people who saw this sold to use their reserves elsewhere.

the silver and gold cycles can be up to 40 years. in the

short to medium term (20 years or less) fundamentals mean

very little. remember that line 'it's not about what is true, it's

about what I can prove in a court of law'. fundamental injustice

will hold until it can be proven and proving something takes

time. until miners are forced to close the current state is likely

to continue.

 

HH

[craig12]

big drop in silver  glad I'm not paying over £14.50    big drop on the dow 666  hope the stock market crash is just around the corner  

[Sherabnamdhak]

So what we are not saying is buy buy buy. As the snow falls over Britain and the Russian bear growls. The time may be right to BUY in a BEAR market. 

[Pipers]

If you think silver is cheap then buy on the dip and hold for the big push.  Put your money where your mouth is.  

It will not matter if silver was £12.30 Toz or £11.50 Toz  when the hike comes, though it does matter now when you are buying.   

[matrawr]

droppinnnnng!

[craig12]

1 year low I think this price is could be 18 months since it was this low

[Paul]

Eva wont be happy at goldsilver.be !!! 

Lower spot means more orders for her to deal with and less profits 

[Lowlow]

On 4/24/2014 at 10:10, crazy hippo said:

If you have silver in your hand you have silver.

So few people really "get" this.

People get so caught up in the fiat currency price of precious metals.

An ounce of silver is worth an ounce of silver, priced in silver, the same as a dollar is worth a dollar, a pound a pound.

I think this idea is really obvious when you start talking about forex trades.  I've seen it, a trader will take a position in a "foreign" currency and agonize over whether they did the right thing, watch the charts every day, worry about whether they should close the position out, etc ... but forex traders IN that foreign country are doing the EXACT same thing with YOUR currency.  You walk around all day with your home currency in your bank account and don't give it a second thought, because that's the currency you think in.  It's the same for people holding "foreign" currency.  And for smart traders, it's the same for precious metals.  If you think in silver and gold, you might feel like every fiat currency is a foreign currency, and feel concerned whenever you aren't in precious metals.  It's all about perspective.

[Lowlow]

On 2/2/2018 at 18:46, sixgun said:

... the so called experts who pretend to know do not apply joined up thinking. They are liars and propagandists at best.

I was making options trades in 2008 to take advantage of the drop in markets which moved in a very predictable way until they reached capitulation, and I was laughing aloud when I was watching television and all the reasons they had in their heads for why the drop was happening, when it recovered for a few days, dropped again, etc.  When markets start taking a serious dump you can see when they capitulate in the short term, when they break lows and start falling again, etc, you can see most of the market turns, it's one of the few times in the market that things become really obvious.  But you turn on the news and they're saying it's because of something a congressman said, or the president, or something the fed chair said, ... then you turn on BBC and they have a totally different set of BS reasons for why things happen one day to the next.  It's funny, and sad.

[vand]

The greatest myth in investing and trading is that price action can be explained by events ex post.

 

The truth is usually the opposite. Price action moves in a way that largely predicts future events. 

Edited March 18, 2018 by vand

[Scuzzle]

I think a lot of todays manipulated price action needs a fake narrative to support it

Edited March 18, 2018 by Scuzzle

[matrawr]

Just looking at the bullion by post website according to their chart as recent as October 1st 2008 spot was £6.78 not saying we'll see those prices again but I can't see a sustained period of higher prices there. Question for the earlier/older stackers when silver was single digits what were the premiums?

Edited March 18, 2018 by matrawr

[Roy]

Exactly the same @ £9s

[matrawr]

4 minutes ago, Roy said:

Exactly the same @ £9s

So what kind of prices would we be expected to pay if it were £8-9 spot? Also When the dealers sell what percentage do they get? Miners get etc?

[Roy]

My spreadsheet is in dollars but in 2015 I was paying £12/oz. You need @Pete or @Paul to advise here.

[Paul]

https://web.archive.org/ 

"The Way Back Machine" 

is a useful tool for looking back into the past and what stuff was listed

Off the top of my head even when silver spot plunged and continued to do so, the price at the dealers reminded more or less the same.  The dealer spread simply increased against spot.

Even spot did one things, the local dealers I used still had no problem shifting product at the same price prior to the semi crash in price.

There was no shortage of buyers and also there was always stock to be bought 

[Roy]

 

24 minutes ago, Paul said:

the local dealers I used still had no problem shifting product at the same price prior to the semi crash in price.

There was no shortage of buyers and also there was always stock to be bought 

That's why it worries me

[matrawr]

39 minutes ago, Paul said:

https://web.archive.org/ 

"The Way Back Machine" 

is a useful tool for looking back into the past and what stuff was listed

Off the top of my head even when silver spot plunged and continued to do so, the price at the dealers reminded more or less the same.  The dealer spread simply increased against spot.

Even spot did one things, the local dealers I used still had no problem shifting product at the same price prior to the semi crash in price.

There was no shortage of buyers and also there was always stock to be bought 

Ah right thanks Paul for the info and does anyone know the price breakdown of silver? What percentage the dealer'miners get?

[Bumble]

Dealers in coins and bars operate on pretty slim margins, since it is a highly competitive business. Silver miners are price takers, not price setters. They cannot choose to sell silver at some price that leaves them a satisfactory margin. About 75% of mined silver comes from mines where it is a by-product of the mining of other metals, such as copper, zinc or lead. These miners are not going to produce more (or less) silver, just because the silver price has moved up (or down). Even an increase in silver price to $25 won't affect thier production, and will only slightly increase their earnings. Their profitability derives mainly from the base metals they produce, so to ask what their margin is on the silver is barely relevant. The flip side of this is that if demand for base metals goes down, less silver will be produced, even if silver demand is high. The other silver miners produce mainly silver, but typically their costs are higher. It varies quite a lot depending on location, but silver mining costs are not far from the current price of around $16. Here, for example, is First Majestic's statement as of January 2018. (This is from https://www.firstmajestic.com/news/2018/index.php?content_id=343)

As you can see, they are struggling to make any profit margin at all at current prices, but they and other primary silver miners will experience much higher earnings if the silver price were to rise to say, $25.