2020 - time to sell your gold?

[Minimalist]

1 minute ago, KDave said:

Also as soon as you start to confiscate peoples assets you have destroyed the principle of property rights which will do far more long term economic damage than anything that would be gained from the theft. The strength of property rights is linked with general prosperity of a nation, poor nations have weak property rights, wealthy nations have strong property rights. Its not an obvious conclusion though and likely if the appropriate left wing party runs on the platform of confiscation many would go for it. 

I tend to agree

However look at the growing trends of new generations; more government spending and asset confiscation. Bernie Sanders and Corbynists are growing. 

[KDave]

6 minutes ago, Minimalist said:

I tend to agree

However look at the growing trends of new generations; more government spending and asset confiscation. Bernie Sanders and Corbynists are growing. 

Yes I imagine a lot of people would go for it if the appropriate left wing party stood on redistribution, I am not sure it would be enough of the demographic to swing it yet. Democracy like ours with universal suffrage and multiple growing ethnic groups is destined to end as a zero sum game, the confiscation of wealth and societal collapse. 

[Tape]

Quote

What is your projection for gold over the next 20 years?

The best combo we could have done in hindsight (and trying to be semi-realistic) is if you had $10,000 in 2005, buy 17.5 oz gold for $10,000, sell it in 2011 for $2000, then you have $35,000

Then put your $35,000 into microsoft, apple, visa, disney etc then sold in 2019 you would have at least 5xs your money being conservative =  $175,000 

Or you could have held onto gold since 2005 and still have about $30,000 which is great, but you would have had that in 2011 and it's not $175,000

All with the benefit of hindsight but that should be the goal shouldn't it? not just "i want to put all my savings into gold and hang on to it forever"

 

 

Could_Could_Could

[vand]

Sell now?

Nope. While its possible stocks could bounce strongly from here and outperform PMs over the next 12 months, over the next 5 years the fundamentals strongly favour staying heavily in PMs as the pigeons of the current moneydrop come home to roost.

 

Next!

[DarkChameleon]

13 minutes ago, vand said:

Sell now?

Nope. While its possible stocks could bounce strongly from here and outperform PMs over the next 12 months, over the next 5 years the fundamentals strongly favour staying heavily in PMs as the pigeons of the current moneydrop come home to roost.

 

Next!

Always have a share of your wealth in PMS, if you sell them now you'd just be hoping they fall to buy them back later for more ozs, not less money, the share would get similar as your market investment would rise to make PMS fall so you can play that game or just hang on and not guess the market till your head explodes...just keep stacking at a safe 10% to 15% of income.

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQzl4e4ttWc

4:00

 

HH

[vand]

On 05/04/2020 at 00:26, Shinus73 said:

I’m no expert, but seems to me that stocks have an awful lot further to fall given the length and scale of the bull market that just ended. I wouldn’t swap anything for stocks anytime soon.

 

Well I've swapped a fair chunk of my bonds for stocks at what I consider a very opportune moment

 

[Shinus73]

50 minutes ago, vand said:

 

Well I've swapped a fair chunk of my bonds for stocks at what I consider a very opportune moment

 

Each to their own.

I expect significant further falls, but as I said, I’m no expert, and I’ve been expecting it for a long time.

[Roy]

How old are you now MrG?

[Nick1368]

1 minute ago, Roy said:

How old are you now MrG?

well he should be 38 if he is going to be 60 in 22 years time 🤔

[Roy]

Oh, you gave it away!  😁

[vand]

I still have a target of Dow/Gold going lower than it reached in 2011 within the course of this cyclical bull market, at which point I think it will be worth lightening up considerably on my PMs.

People who can't see it happening any time soon should consider that Dow/Gold went from a peak of 22.5 in mid-2018 to 11.5 on 23rd March last month - that is a virtual halving in under 2 years. Stay on that course for another 2-3 years and we are pretty much there. Of course it could take longer, but TBH I'm in no hurry to see the world fall apart again.

 

[HawkHybrid]

9 minutes ago, vand said:

I still have a target of Dow/Gold going lower than it reached in 2011 within the course of this cyclical bull market, at which point I think it will be worth lightening up considerably on my PMs.

People who can't see it happening any time soon should consider that Dow/Gold went from a peak of 22.5 in mid-2018 to 11.5 on 23rd March last month - that is a virtual halving in under 2 years. Stay on that course for another 2-3 years and we are pretty much there. Of course it could take longer, but TBH I'm in no hurry to see the world fall apart again.

 

is this not akin to saying in 2011 that a gsr of ~40 is nothing, and

that people should expect a gsr of under 20(1980), and expect it

soon? did the gsr halve in the 2 years leading up to 2011 peak?

 

HH

[vand]

14 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

is this not akin to saying in 2011 that a gsr of ~40 is nothing, and

that people should expect a gsr of under 20(1980), and expect it

soon? did the gsr halve in the 2 years leading up to 2011 peak?

 

HH

the GSR did collapse with great speed as silver shot to $50.

But I'm not putting a 2yr timeline on it, I'm just saying that it's possible it will play out in that sort of timeframe, and if it did I would not be that surprised.

[HawkHybrid]

2 hours ago, vand said:

the GSR did collapse with great speed as silver shot to $50.

But I'm not putting a 2yr timeline on it, I'm just saying that it's possible it will play out in that sort of timeframe, and if it did I would not be that surprised.

 

with hindsight should you have held onto metals at a gsr

of ~40 in 2011 or taken some profits? it could have gone

to a gsr of under 20 soon after 2011, but why take the risk

with a full position? taking profits at strategic times allows

you more room to manoeuvre which ever direction it goes.

due to the recent drops and not much movement in gold,

a lot of portfolios have a larger % worth in the metals right

now. selling some metals for stock would re-balance this.

(I'm thinking 10% and not cash in all your metals)

 

HH

[Minimalist]

22 hours ago, MrGeorge said:

I had originally planned to hold gold until I retired probably 22 years time when im 60 but if gold goes to 2k a oz ill just sell the lot and put it into stocks and wont be buying anymore gold.

Personally, I wouldnt invest into developed markets more so emerging markets like Russia and China

[Minimalist]

9 minutes ago, MrGeorge said:

Ill be sticking with my global all cap index funds. Just maxed my 4 isas out on Monday been waiting for the isas to reset for weeks. Finally got a nice bargain  

What global all cap index funds are these? 

[Minimalist]

6 minutes ago, MrGeorge said:

Vanguard 

Whats the minimum req?

[Minimalist]

1 minute ago, MrGeorge said:

I have no idea sorry

Thats weird 

[FlorinCollector]

@Minimalist if you look on vanguards website there is minimums that you have to buy in say £500 to start. However, you can buy them through different brokers for cheaper. Like hargreaves and lansdown, freetrade etc. I think the minimum buy in can be cheaper to if you opt in to pay monthly. Also if you buy them from other brokers and not direct you don't need to buy the minimum. For example first time i bought the £VUSA. that is the vanguard tracker for the s&p 500. On Vanguards site it has a minimum buy in. I bought my first share on freetrade for £38 and only bought 1. 

 

Hope that helps.

Edit pic

[Minimalist]

Thanks @JosephM