The coming Gold crash

[Auricsstash]

7 minutes ago, Wonger said:

If you read the thread posts you will see that I covered my initial Silver shorts and was then long Silver going into these crazy high prices and crazy COT readings, Ive only recently started coming back on here, but when Silver rallied close to $19 in Jan I was then out all longs and shorting futures contracts, because to trade aginst the COT flow when the readings are that extreme is simply crazy

Oh aye.. Hey this place has an ignore button....

[Wonger]

7 minutes ago, Auricsstash said:

Oh aye.. Hey this place has an ignore button....

Good we can start to separate the wheat from the chaff on this thread cant we!

[Robda1986]

@Wonger gold hasn't dropped 300 today as you predicted yesterday 

[Auricsstash]

3 minutes ago, Robda1986 said:

@Wonger gold hasn't dropped 300 today as you predicted yesterday 

It will be tomorrow... and then tomorrow and then tomorrow and then in x months he will be right and then he will tell you I told you so... Just exactly like the silver thread....

[5huggy]

a "BROKEN" clock is deadly accurate - - TWICE  a DAY! 😉

[danmc82]

@Wonger 's Prediction charts...

[dicker]

Quiet in here tonight....

[Wonger]

I will settle for $90 off the highs for June futures any day for the first daily leg down! 😉

[Minimalist]

9 hours ago, Wonger said:

 

 

[sovereignsteve]

12 hours ago, Wonger said:

Look at the COT report on the 23rd April the commercials held their lowest short positions, its no coincidence that Gold bottomed around $1266 (arrow) the COT report was telling you that the commercials were now building short contracts by selling the opposing long contracts to the speculators, the COT was telling you to buy Gold and it carried on building until recently when we had record breaking shorts held by the commercials, the speculators have clearly now stopped buying contracts, so the commercials will manipulate the price down causing the speculators to close out their long contracts at losses which is the commercials gain, its wash rinse repeat ever since futures markets first began!😉    

That doesn't make any sense. On the day you highlight, it looks like nobody was holding any conracts at all. presumably this was why the price bottomed.

How can the commercials make any money by selling longs from this bottom level all the way up to the high price? You say the speculators had stopped buying longs and would then presumably close out their longs at a large profit, not a loss as you say. The only ones who would lose money are those that bought longs at the high price. All those that had bought at the bottom and on the way upwould make money off the commercials.

[Wonger]

8 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

That doesn't make any sense. On the day you highlight, it looks like nobody was holding any conracts at all. presumably this was why the price bottomed.

How can the commercials make any money by selling longs from this bottom level all the way up to the high price? You say the speculators had stopped buying longs and would then presumably close out their longs at a large profit, not a loss as you say. The only ones who would lose money are those that bought longs at the high price. All those that had bought at the bottom and on the way upwould make money off the commercials.

Makes sense to me because at the high the speculators are holding maximum long positions, where as on the way up they were slowly adding!

Edited March 26, 2020 by Wonger

[sovereignsteve]

1 minute ago, Wonger said:

Makes sense to me because at the high the speculators are holding maximum long positions!

are we at odds here over terminology? what do you mean by a long position? if a speculator held a long contract taken out at a much lower price, they would be sitting on a large profit. If they then sold out surely they would liquidate that profit.

[Wonger]

16 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

are we at odds here over terminology? what do you mean by a long position? if a speculator held a long contract taken out at a much lower price, they would be sitting on a large profit. If they then sold out surely they would liquidate that profit.

What your missing is the fact that at the high the speculators have their maximum long exposure as they didnt purchase all their long positions at the low, they added as the price went up, so when the price turns down they lose money faster than they made it, because at the high they are not selling, they are maximum long! 😉

Edited March 26, 2020 by Wonger

[sovereignsteve]

29 minutes ago, Wonger said:

What your missing is the fact that at the high the speculators have their maximum long exposure as they didnt purchase all their long positions at the low, they added as the price went up, so when the price turns down they lose money faster than they made it, because at the high they are not selling, they are maximum long! 😉

Yes I see your point but the commercials are holding some shorts that they acquired at the bottom therefore these are well underwater at the top. These contracts will be losers unless they buy them back at a lower price than the previous low. They would need to drop the price quite a way to pick up enough profit from the longs they sold at or near the top.

[Uksilverstackers]

Wonger - how are the daily lease rates holding up?  Serious question
 

I guess with an abundance of Gold lease rates are lower than if it was scarce.

[Oldun]

$300 down today huh ? Oh no, now you changed your mind....oh I am buying more...oh...allow me to inject some humour 

 

[Wonger]

19 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

Yes I see your point but the commercials are holding some shorts that they acquired at the bottom therefore these are well underwater at the top. These contracts will be losers unless they buy them back at a lower price than the previous low. They would need to drop the price quite a way to pick up enough profit from the longs they sold at or near the top.

The commercials are holding maximum shorts at the very top!

[Wonger]

1 hour ago, Oldun said:

$300 down today huh ? Oh no, now you changed your mind....oh I am buying more...oh...allow me to inject some humour 

 

No change of mind here im afraid, Gold is going to collapse along with Silver and all other assets in the worst deflation ever seen in history! 

[Oldun]

What you fail to address is that even if everything collapses, as you suggest, and it is coming in a few years, everything is relative and you are solely focussing on one issue....price....

Edited March 26, 2020 by Oldun

[Wonger]

2 hours ago, Uksilverstackers said:

Wonger - how are the daily lease rates holding up?  Serious question
 

I guess with an abundance of Gold lease rates are lower than if it was scarce.

I dont look at lease rates as I trade futures as thats the only thing that matters to the price of Gold and any other commodity, all the rest is made up media nonsense to try and explain the price moves to the sheep!

[Wonger]

5 minutes ago, Oldun said:

What you fail to realise is that even if everything collapses, as you suggest, everything is relative and you are solely focussing on one issue....price....

Yes and thats because I will be buying Gold at $400 instead of $1700 because as a buyer I prefer the lower price

Edited March 26, 2020 by Wonger

[Oldun]

Obvious comment. Everyone will be and you wont get physical at that price.

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2 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Yes and thats because I will buying Gold at $400 instead of $1700 because as a buyer I prefer the lower price

You are calling $400. Righto. See you there

Edited March 26, 2020 by Oldun

[Zhorro]

5 minutes ago, Wonger said:

No change of mind here im afraid, Gold is going to collapse along with Silver and all other assets in the worst deflation ever seen in history! 

Why don't we all just sit back and see what happens?

Though...

If you think everything is going to collapse, why are you so worried about gold and silver?

[Xander]

1 minute ago, Wonger said:

I will be buying Gold at $400 instead of $1700

Sounds good to me.

[Wonger]

1 minute ago, Oldun said:

Obvious comment. Everyone will be and you wont get physical at that price.

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Added 0 minutes later...

You are calling $400. Righto. 

Called it 2 years ago, please keep up if you want to play the game!