Forget talks about recession - should we be worried about the next Great Depression!

[Pampfan]

First off - I consider myself to be an optimist -but, Everything is looking worse and worse each day.
Everyone is worried about this being the start of a recession - I see this as the start of the next Great Depression.

Do the governments have anything left to stop it from happening. 
 

What do you think?
 

[Pete]

Sorry deleted because the critical data couldn't be pasted.
What it showed was the collapse in main global stock markets by 20 - 30% in a month yet a slight increase in China's where they appear to have conquered the virus.
Conspiracy theory is that the Chinese government released this virus to create a global recession and have already bought up everything cheap.
This is in response to the USA / China trade war.

[sixgun]

What is all this conspiracy theory - best economy in the world, best economy ever.

i have been banging on about this for months and months - that there would be QE to infinity and negative rates as the USD-Treasury complex collapses. Americans need cash now - code for helicopter money and massive QE.

Now the veil has slipped. Zero rates - next come the negative. Shale will go bang and with it all their debts and bonds - bang go the banks - whole sections of the corporate bond sector go junk and are dumped in the mother of all corporate bond collapses and zombie corporations die. The Fed will be issuing $quadrillions - once it starts the slope gets very steep very quickly. Treasuries are being dumped - US Treasuries are junk bonds now. It was all foreseen - some of us saw it anyway. Americans  better get used to living in the Third World - pity the US didn't make any real friends. 

[Pampfan]

@sixgun I always considered you a friend😢.

[Martlet]

Very much depends on how long the isolation and general economic inactivity lasts.  Its quite possible a sharp rebound as people rush back to spend, business and demand return to normalish. However airlines, leisure, hospitality will be hammered, those businesses may need to be completely restarted.  Its too early to forecast depression. 

[sixgun]

Just now, Pampfan said:

@sixgun I always considered you a friend😢.

You are a man - we can be friends - but the US? - or actually UNITED STATES Federal Corporation, it is no friend of anyone and certain not your friend Pampfan.

Quote

(15)“United States” means—

(A)

a Federal corporation;

(B)

an agency, department, commission, board, or other entity of the United States; or

(C)

an instrumentality of the United States.

 

[augur]

1 hour ago, Pampfan said:

First off - I consider myself to be an optimist -but, Everything is looking worse and worse each day.
Everyone is worried about this being the start of a recession - I see this as the start of the next Great Depression.

Do the governments have anything left to stop it from happening. 
 

What do you think?
 

Can we do something to stop the governments and central banks?!

more people will die from the economic fallout than from the virus even in the worst case scenarios 

[Roy]

Is anyone on the forum suffering yet...apart from the rash on their arse from the newspaper?

[shawy2510]

2 minutes ago, Roy said:

Is anyone on the forum suffering yet...apart from the rash on their arse from the newspaper?

As you know I make false teeth Roy & I have virtually had no new work this week so will start to feel it soon.

[Roy]

I'm sorry about that Andy but you have reserves and gold yes?

More to the point, you're talented and sharp, this is the best currency.

[ilovesilverireallydo]

8 minutes ago, Roy said:

Is anyone on the forum suffering yet...apart from the rash on their arse from the newspaper?

We seeing a lot client shutting spend. 

[shawy2510]

15 minutes ago, Roy said:

I'm sorry about that Andy but you have reserves and gold yes?

More to the point, you're talented and sharp, this is the best currency.

Affraid not lol, I spent alot of money on renovating my house I bought & am paying £700pm just in loans. I do have some gold but mainly numismatic stuff. I will take a cash advance from Boris if SHTF haha. Misses is a nurse so she can put in an extra shift a week to help out

[AppleZippoandMetronome]

1 hour ago, augur said:

more people will die from the economic fallout than from the virus even in the worst case scenarios 

This is my fear too. Everyone is running around crazy fearing for the well being of them and their loved ones with the virus going around blind to the fact that death rates soar when people start losing their jobs, homes and futures. I've tried to spread the message myself for people to prepare and be more finacially prudent but its not getting through. I've even had people accuse me of only thinking of my wallet when I mentioned the economic fallout 🙄 *big fkn sigh*

[Roy]

This is a time when the financially prudent will be labelled as selfish w*nkers. There are so many who didn't have a care in the world, money was easy, nearly free.

Now the tide has turned.

[tallyhojim]

2 hours ago, Roy said:

This is a time when the financially prudent will be labelled as selfish w*nkers. There are so many who didn't have a care in the world, money was easy, nearly free.

Now the tide has turned.

That right there. So true.

[tallyhojim]

2 hours ago, AppleZippoandMetronome said:

This is my fear too. Everyone is running around crazy fearing for the well being of them and their loved ones with the virus going around blind to the fact that death rates soar when people start losing their jobs, homes and futures. I've tried to spread the message myself for people to prepare and be more finacially prudent but its not getting through. I've even had people accuse me of only thinking of my wallet when I mentioned the economic fallout 🙄 *big fkn sigh*

NHS is already at breaking point even without Corona. More deaths from non Corona will be a certainty as people hospitalised with COVID will take away medical resources and nurse time from other patients. Either way, a lot of people are ****ed. And we haven't even hit peak point yet....

[Seth]

18 hours ago, Roy said:

Is anyone on the forum suffering yet...apart from the rash on their arse from the newspaper?

My tush is fine, thanks for asking though.  I've just lot a tonne of work, I was meant to be doing a day or two of studio work in London next week - I was booked from the 23/03/20 to 24/03/20, that's now been cancelled, I was then supposed to fly out to America on the 25/03/20 until the 01/04/24 for a tour, that's now been cancelled.  In May I had quite a few studio days booked in Europe, mainly in France and Germany, but also in Norway, Sweden and Italy, they've all now been cancelled, I had touring dates for within the U.K. booked for June and July - fully booked for those months, they've now all been cancelled.  Thankfully I learnt long ago the value of having income protection insurance - I once had a flu followed by a sore throat that cost/lost me over 20K, plus I have coverage through various ''musician unions'' - yes such an animal exists in fact the one in the U.K. is called ''The Musicians Union'' or ''The Mu'' for short, so I won't lose any money and get paid what I would have been paid had none of these jobs been cancelled, however, my insurance premiums will now most likely go up when it comes time to renew these policies/memberships.  though in times such as these it's worh having not just the right insurance coverage, but proper insurance insurance coverage, especially if you're like me and are self employed and a freelancer.

[Elements]

13 hours ago, tallyhojim said:

NHS is already at breaking point even without Corona. More deaths from non Corona will be a certainty as people hospitalised with COVID will take away medical resources and nurse time from other patients. Either way, a lot of people are ****ed. And we haven't even hit peak point yet....

I found this amazing, this is a photo on my local facebook from someone who works in a hospital. Normal wards are deserted. I double checked with my friends wife, a doctor there and she agrees, its mega quiet, people are staying away. Another work colleague has a friend who is a hospital pharmacist at a different hospital, last week was busy whilst they free up capacity of non emergency cases and again this week is quiet. They're expecting a surge of viral patients though in the next week or two, hopefully it wont materialise.

Maybe people wont take the NHS for granted after this and stop going for minor ailments.

p.s - a post in reply to the facebook photo was funny, said with pubs being closed there's a lot less drunken injuries!!

 

[Sparrow]

I work in an NHS booking office, and judging by what the surgeries are saying non-emergency stuff is being cancelled left right and centre. (Unsurprisingly.)  The GP's surgeries are locking down as well, installing screens to separate the receptionists from patients and so on. (The patients who are still even invited to come to the surgery.)  Even with the drop in patients coming in the medical secretaries are still being rushed off their feet - those people deserve medals.

My office has even stopped policing proformas, the number one priority is to just clear as many referrals as possible as quickly as possible.  It's a crazy time to work in the health service!

[Seth]

11 minutes ago, Sparrow said:

I work in an NHS booking office, and judging by what the surgeries are saying non-emergency stuff is being cancelled left right and centre. (Unsurprisingly.)  The GP's surgeries are locking down as well, installing screens to separate the receptionists from patients and so on. (The patients who are still even invited to come to the surgery.)  Even with the drop in patients coming in the medical secretaries are still being rushed off their feet - those people deserve medals.

My office has even stopped policing proformas, the number one priority is to just clear as many referrals as possible as quickly as possible.  It's a crazy time to work in the health service!

My GP went further han hat, they sen everyone on heir books a thermometer, and you won't get given an appoinmet to see a doctor or pick up your prescription without first calling up and telling the receptionist your temperature, they even sent out ''temperature daries'' to everyone on their books to keep tab of their temperature, and you have to now bring it along with you to your doctors appointment, the joys of going for private healthcare in the U.K.

[5huggy]

18 hours ago, Roy said:

Is anyone on the forum suffering yet...apart from the rash on their arse from the newspaper?

YES THANKYOU!

[Pampfan]

These are very serious times - we all need to be concerned. Although we might not be sick - this is a time changing event - possible the new BC! (Before Christ) now might become (Before Corona). 
 

[Seth]

4 minutes ago, Pampfan said:

These are very serious times - we all need to be concerned. Although we might not be sick - this is a time changing event - possible the new BC! (Before Christ) now might become (Before Corona). 
 

Nah, Corona has been around since the 20's, it's by far the most drunk imported beer in America - bu what do Americans know about beer.

[Lowlow]

The entire culture is going to change as this goes on.

Right now, for example .. everyone is all "raise the minimum wage ...", but if unemployment goes to 25% and nobody can find a job because the minimum wage is set to high, that entire mindset will shift as everyone starts working under the table for whatever money they can get to keep their families fed.  That will become resentment against people who are making it hard for people to make ends meet.

It's all going to change if it continues to get worse, but it takes time ...

I've said it so many times before ... we are going to have to relearn all the old lessons the hard way .. because people have forgot.  At the moment they are worried about trans bathrooms, but soon they'll be worried about bedrock things like the stability of their nation's currency ...

[Martlet]

6 minutes ago, Lowlow said:

The entire culture is going to change as this goes on.

Right now, for example .. everyone is all "raise the minimum wage ...", but if unemployment goes to 25% and nobody can find a job because the minimum wage is set to high, that entire mindset will shift as everyone starts working under the table for whatever money they can get to keep their families fed.  That will become resentment against people who are making it hard for people to make ends meet.

It's all going to change if it continues to get worse, but it takes time ...

I've said it so many times before ... we are going to have to relearn all the old lessons the hard way .. because people have forgot.  At the moment they are worried about trans bathrooms, but soon they'll be worried about bedrock things like the stability of their nation's currency ...

Unfortunately the groups calling for minimum wage, trans that and that, will use this event to increase the urgency of their cause.  State control of banks, price controls, universal income, are typical of the solutions they propose.