When to buy back in

[Pete]

On 13/03/2020 at 22:40, GoldElliott said:

I thought about that- particularly in a student town buying a very cheap house/apartment, installing the cheapest appliances and renting to students- charge large deposit and 3-6 months rent upfront (as is common for students) and they have their parents as guarantors. Worst case they trash it and you have deposit to fall back on. The problem is I know and live in London and wouldn't know where to start elsewhere in the country let alone up north or something. Never been north of Tottenham

Rumour has it that Milton Keynes will be building a new University campus near the main railway station.
Supposedly a high technology establishment.
Lots of new builds in MK right now and prices a fraction of London so maybe a good opportunity ?

[JunkBond]

On 12/03/2020 at 14:42, Pipers said:

Simple question when to buy back in? 

Ftse

Tracker, Passive

Let me know guys. 👍 😂

[Pete]

Buying in right now on the assumption if it gets any worse I am totally screwed so what's to loose.
Could get CV-19 ( or maybe I already have it as I have all the symptoms excluding fever today ).
Get hospitalised due to underlying complications and no ventilators available so 'au-revoir' and the kids take what's left albeit less than last month.
On the other hand the markets could be artificially depressed due to global panic, or more likely computer algorithms automatically selling stocks, so there could be tremendous upside potential.
It's a real Casino call right now but why would the value of a major food Company drop 15-20% because if anything, demands will rise.
Airlines I can understand but infrastructure, toilet paper and pharmaceuticals no way !

[MancunianStacker]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

Buying in right now on the assumption if it gets any worse I am totally screwed so what's to loose.
Could get CV-19 ( or maybe I already have it as I have all the symptoms excluding fever today ).
Get hospitalised due to underlying complications and no ventilators available so 'au-revoir' and the kids take what's left albeit less than last month.
On the other hand the markets could be artificially depressed due to global panic, or more likely computer algorithms automatically selling stocks, so there could be tremendous upside potential.
It's a real Casino call right now but why would the value of a major food Company drop 15-20% because if anything, demands will rise.
Airlines I can understand but infrastructure, toilet paper and pharmaceuticals no way !

Hang in there buddy!!! Lots of nasty viruses going around at the moment. Stay positive!!! 👍🏻 

[HawkHybrid]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

It's a real Casino call right now but why would the value of a major food Company drop 15-20% because if anything, demands will rise.

 

demand for staple foods(pasta) will rise but those are

low margin items. the risk is if people start replacing

some of the higher margin items with lower margin

ones then profit/revenue is going to go down.

how stretched will people be and how much can they

afford going forward is still an unknown.

for longer/long term investment bargains consider waiting?

 

HH

[Bumble]

Many financial commentators I follow are saying we haven't reached the bottom for stocks yet, so it is too early to buy. That said, I am itching to buy the ridiculously oversold gold stocks and I am having difficulty sitting on my hands. GDX and GDXJ did bounce back 18% and 20% yesterday though, so they are not quite as oversold as they were. Because of the virus, you will need to be careful which sectors to buy into. Discretionary spending, manufacturing, oil and retail will be bad for quite a while yet. FTSE has many quality high-yield stocks that should be OK, but it is best to stick to defensive sectors like utilities, staples and health care.

[Bullionbilly]

On 15/03/2020 at 15:11, Pete said:

Watching the TV series about bailiffs and sheriffs evicting people who don't pay their rent for up to 2 years or sublet and wreck properties I would be concerned about buying to let.

 

Thats a real eye opening programme, i jave also seen 1st hand propertys that tennants have wrecked both low end and very high end property. That has also put me off.

[5huggy]

8 minutes ago, Bumble said:

Many financial commentators I follow are saying we haven't reached the bottom for stocks yet, so it is too early to buy. That said, I am itching to buy the ridiculously oversold gold stocks and I am having difficulty sitting on my hands. GDX and GDXJ did bounce back 18% and 20% yesterday though, so they are not quite as oversold as they were. Because of the virus, you will need to be careful which sectors to buy into. Discretionary spending, manufacturing, oil and retail will be bad for quite a while yet. FTSE has many quality high-yield stocks that should be OK, but it is best to stick to defensive sectors like utilities, staples and health care.

SUPERB ! analysis IMHO 👏👍

"PRIME" Silver miners were at bargain basement yesterday so I doubled down on 2 of my favorites! 😉👌

[Bumble]

I continue to prefer gold miners over silver, for the simple reason that silver is primarily an industrial metal and demand will fall in a recession. The safest PM stocks to own are the royalty companies - FNV, WPM, RGLD, OR, SSL/SAND, ELY, EMX, MTA, MMX, RZZ.

[MancunianStacker]

On 15/03/2020 at 15:11, Pete said:

Watching the TV series about bailiffs and sheriffs evicting people who don't pay their rent for up to 2 years or sublet and wreck properties I would be concerned about buying to let.

 

Landlord being too nice. You can have them out within 2 months easily. You can insure the damage and other accidents/vandalism. A good lettings agency is essential if you want to be hands free so say bye bye to 10-12% of your rent each month. Or research what you are doing (it’s a business after all) and DIY. You can issue the paperwork to evict at the same time as signing up to a contract and have them sign it, so they need to behave in the first 2 months at the very least out of 6. Also take 6 months rent upfront for a discount etc. Plenty of ways to protect yourself and your property. 

[Pete]

2 hours ago, MancunianStacker said:

Landlord being too nice. You can have them out within 2 months easily. You can insure the damage and other accidents/vandalism. A good lettings agency is essential if you want to be hands free so say bye bye to 10-12% of your rent each month. Or research what you are doing (it’s a business after all) and DIY. You can issue the paperwork to evict at the same time as signing up to a contract and have them sign it, so they need to behave in the first 2 months at the very least out of 6. Also take 6 months rent upfront for a discount etc. Plenty of ways to protect yourself and your property. 

Friend of mine let a flat in London with a 3 month rent free period some years ago to help someone desperate for a residence.
It was brand new.
I don't know the financial details but she never received any rent and before the 3 months were up the tenants disappeared with all the kitchen cupboards, plumbing, sanitary ware, copper pipe and electrical fittings. Everything was stripped and ripped off the walls. Looked as if it could also have been multiple occupancy judging by the number of mattresses left on the floor in every room.
Yes, perhaps she was rather naive at the time but it illustrates there are some real sheisters out there and when you give an inch they take a mile.

[HawkHybrid]

On 13/03/2020 at 09:26, Abyss said:

Keep an eye on the VIX chart measure Volatility. Wait for volatility return back to normal and a base established before going back in stocks or any derivative of a stock.

https://in.tradingview.com/chart/8D4iwYMZ/

 

probably deserves more likes that it got.

 

HH

[HelpingHands]

I've not got a regular trading account.  Can you buy oil at $20 ?

[Bumble]

I presume you do not want to take delivery of barrels of crude oil in your front yard. If you had a brokerage account, there are ways of exposing yourself to the oil price. You could buy futures contracts, options, ETFs, leveraged ETFs, or contracts for difference. Without a broker, I suppose you could spread bet the oil price through a betting account with a bookie. Not sure that it's a good idea for amateur investors.

[Bullionaire]

1 hour ago, Bumble said:

I presume you do not want to take delivery of barrels of crude oil in your front yard. If you had a brokerage account, there are ways of exposing yourself to the oil price. You could buy futures contracts, options, ETFs, leveraged ETFs, or contracts for difference. Without a broker, I suppose you could spread bet the oil price through a betting account with a bookie. Not sure that it's a good idea for amateur investors.

I'm sure I read a story once about some city slicker who was betting on the price of livestock, forgot to close out his position and ended up having to take physical delivery of hundreds of bulls

[GoldElliott]

1 minute ago, Bullionaire said:

I'm sure I read a story once about some city slicker who was betting on the price of livestock, forgot to close out his position and ended up having to take physical delivery of hundreds of bulls

bet his landlord had something to say when a truck of cows turned up at his flat is clapham 😂

[HelpingHands]

8 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

thanks for  highlighting the dip, bought Junes so hopefully oil will be higher than $20 by then 🤪

oooh I hope so now Im slightly culpable. 

Possible bounce to around $40 ?

[HawkHybrid]

shorter term trades(weeks) should probably consider cautiously

getting back into the markets at this point.

 

HH

[AuricGoldfinger]

@MancunianStacker do you really think property  prices will be relatively unaffected?

Im in the process of buying another BTL and thinking of pulling out (it’s a wreck and need a full renovation).

These seem like risky times to be using up hard cash and taking on more debt but I could be and hope i am wrong.

[MancunianStacker]

1 hour ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

@MancunianStacker do you really think property  prices will be relatively unaffected?

Im in the process of buying another BTL and thinking of pulling out (it’s a wreck and need a full renovation).

These seem like risky times to be using up hard cash and taking on more debt but I could be and hope i am wrong.

On the plus side the debt is cheap and it will buy a physical asset. Will the renters be there? Well we all need to live somewhere! I’m lucky that I just remembered that I bought rent protection insurance on mine. If you haven’t got any yet, “Paymentshield” sells it, direct, I believe!!!! I’m paying £15 per flat per month, so not so bad.
 

At least the mortgage lenders haven’t stopped applications and are going off applicant’s job histories still (usually 3 months payslips). I say still because I’ve no idea what lenders will do if half the UK population become technically unemployed overnight for a good period of time. They may then go off whatever other income people get e.g monthly helicopter cheque until your usual industry role becomes available again. One underwriter I spoke to today was getting taken of his normal day job to join their “crisis” team, so that doesn’t sound good at all. I’m guessing they could be re-assessing applications with high risk jobs like pilots, cabin crew, travel shop staff. The list could go on and on. Govt and Council employees will become the best risk applicants. 

The more I think about it the more I’m worried about the whole scenario. Remortgage application underwriting could go off credit histories rather than actual incomes going forward, who knows????  This is where a 2008 scenario becomes more likely in my eyes. Unless they continue to lend like they do now, it could cause a full on collapse. 

If I was buying a BTL that needed work at an unknown future cost (supply & demand could all change next month due to lack of childcare) and had a choice between *gold and cash, I’d take the gold even at these prices. I could always convert it back to cash at any point in the future. It would also avoid a bail in.

Also, one note on the so called  FSCS bank deposit compensation scheme. They guarantee the first £x per bank account but it could well become a hyperinflation scenario and your £10,000 becomes the price of normal TV. When the Govt has to pay all these guarantees they will “print” again to meet the demand and the £ gets devalued.

I’ve also just had my best friend call me for life insurance. Usually it takes months depending on health history and the amount of cover. He’s going to want it on risk immediately, he has kidney issues. Friends in general are freaking about how they will be expected to work and look after kids to. Some expect a 50% drop in their incomes to cover childcare because parents can’t do it.

I would pull out of the planned purchase. I’m 42.

Sorry, maybe reality has just kicked in for me.

 

 

[MancunianStacker]

On 13/03/2020 at 20:12, sixgun said:

Property prices are high - i would sit on your hands a while - in the 2008 stock market bear market, property prices fell.

I now fear anything could happen! They could crash, they could go up in £ terms if inflation goes nuts.

I expect companies like airlines and railways will get bought back by Govt too. It’s like Corbyn got in via the back door 🤦‍♂️ 

[Minimalist]

Mike Maloney of GoldSilver put up a video there showing that the Fed is giving the Americans two rounds of helicopter confetti 

[Cornishfarmer]

7 hours ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

@MancunianStacker do you really think property  prices will be relatively unaffected?

Im in the process of buying another BTL and thinking of pulling out (it’s a wreck and need a full renovation).

These seem like risky times to be using up hard cash and taking on more debt but I could be and hope i am wrong.

As I bought shares a few weeks ago that have dropped 40% I wouldn’t take my advice but I’d pull out for now.    This one is going to be a bad one.      In a few months I think people are going to be desperate so houses will come down, anyone self employed (including myself) will have to live on reserves which is ok until they runout.      We often hear that a lot of people only have reserves for a few weeks this will be months.           I’m sorry to say but I think cash will be king and if you are at the right place at the right time so items will be got at giveaway prices.   This is harsh but true I’m not a prepper but I think we are in for desperate times and people we know/us will struggle.     

[AuricGoldfinger]

@MancunianStacker and @Cornishfarmer thanks for your replies.

These are my thoughts/concerns exactly. Pretty gutting because you get yourself focused on the purchase and renovation (something I’ve done numerous times before but still requires a lot of pre planning/stress etc) all to decide maybe best to pull out which I definitely did not think I would be remotely considering when my offer was accepted.

The lender needed proof of full renovation funds which is something I’d not needed to do before so I also sold 8oz of gold to add to the funds for the project when spot was @ £1260 but now pretty frustrated i had to do that if the purchase isn’t going ahead.

Payment holidays have been extended to BTL mortgages if tenants aren’t meeting payments which is good news for my current properties just incase.

On the plus side if we are heading for total chaos and i pull out of the purchase i have by fluke got the most cash i have ever had saved up which will certainly take any major pressures off, it’s enough to last a couple years of needs be and maybe out the ashes of this can be well placed into something whether that be property stocks etc.

One thought I’ve had is if i pull out before April 5th i could stick £20k into cash isa for now and then a other £20k after April 5th, just to make use of isa allowance and I’m then ready to put some money into S&S when the dust settles.

I must admit that seeing how easily money can disappear in S&S though does put me off. At least with physical assets like gold and property you still have the asset. The fact the pound seems to be becoming more worthless by the minute is the next big worry.

I’m 30 on Sunday and got a baby on the way also which is something that obviously is seriously going to affect my decision making in the next couple weeks (and the rest of my life!)

[h103efa]

49 minutes ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

Payment holidays have been extended to BTL mortgages if tenants aren’t meeting payments which is good news for my current properties just incase.

As long as you havent taken out buy-to-let mortgages through limited companies!