Rise in gold and dealer supply

[dicker]

Hello All

Previously, I have noticed that when gold prices rise, there are interesting pieces hitting the dealers as people sell to take advantage of the rising prices. 
 

I have not seen this recently, and I might even say that supply seems tight. 
 

I would appreciate anyone else’s view

Best

Dicker

[Midasfrog]

I think there is still a very good turnover of gold coins coming into the hands of dealers perhaps they are holding some back and will pass them on at a later date knowing that gold will increase. I picked up a few sovereigns in slabs today plus a really nice 1964 bought from a dealer who sends all his gold coins to melt /scrap as a rule. 

[Robda1986]

Silver and gold are getting harder to come by my normal sources have dried up as no one is really selling if they are the dealers are keeping em till the price decides what it's doing

[dicker]

@Robda1986 Exactly what I am seeing!

[Tape]

Rise? hell it just dropped about $200oz

[5huggy]

Franklin mint video - explains in detail whats happening! second of the 2 video's !

 

[silenceissilver]

When I ordered from bullion by post on Friday, there was a notification processing it would take longer than usually. I've read several messages that it's hard or impossible to get gold and silver in Germany. Dealer closed because of the virus panic in one case, no gold in stock and not able to order more from their suppliers in another one. Some big German dealers apparently run out of gold and silver. I didn't check it myself but it's several people saying that so it's certainly true.

[AuricGoldfinger]

Where can gold still be purchased seems a nightmare to get hold of anything at the minute 

[Ceaiu]

20 minutes ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

Where can gold still be purchased seems a nightmare to get hold of anything at the minute 

Managed to buy a 1oz PAMP (from GoldAvenue), but now there are delays with the shipping because of Covid.

[Provvidenza]

Is it my imagination or has Royal Mint Bulion sharply increased the premium on its gold coins?

[Midasfrog]

20 minutes ago, Provvidenza said:

Is it my imagination or has Royal Mint Bulion sharply increased the premium on its gold coins?

Looks like some of the premiums have been increased . Some of the Queens Beasts 1oz have gone up for sure the 1/4 oz look about the same without any changes

[AndyS]

 

On 18/03/2020 at 22:04, AuricGoldfinger said:

Where can gold still be purchased seems a nightmare to get hold of anything at the minute 

 

Check out the Austrian mint - 1 oz gold Philharmonic for €1417 (current spot ~€1400) ... on Wednesday they were actually below spot for a while

https://www.muenzeoesterreich.at/eng/produkte/1-ounce-fine-gold-999.9

[Michal]

3 hours ago, AndyS said:

 

 

Check out the Austrian mint - 1 oz gold Philharmonic for €1417 (current spot ~€1400) ... on Wednesday they were actually below spot for a while

https://www.muenzeoesterreich.at/eng/produkte/1-ounce-fine-gold-999.9

Yes they are in stock, but i can't put it in to basket. I am based in UK.

[AndyS]

2 minutes ago, Michal said:

Yes they are in stock, but i can't put it in to basket. I am based in UK.

Just checked and I can add it to my basket, however I am logged into my account so that may be the difference ... do not think being in the UK should be a problem as anything outside Austria and Germany is counted as ‘International’

[daca]

21 minutes ago, Michal said:

Yes they are in stock, but i can't put it in to basket. I am based in UK.

Works without a problem, no account necessary

[Nick1368]

So pretty much all dealers are closed now, they are not selling anything neither online or in person.

the only London dealer that is trading at the moment is Hatton Garden Metals but they don’t have much gold left in their vault.

[dicker]

Yup...all very quiet on the dealer front.  

[Andy]

On 18/03/2020 at 22:26, Provvidenza said:

Is it my imagination or has Royal Mint Bulion sharply increased the premium on its gold coins?

Royal Mint appears to have run out of sovs. Only 1/2s and doubles left at the moment.

[Serendipity]

Yes, I have noticed this which is why I’ve switched to buying numismatic or graded sovereigns rather than bullion or international coins. It’s not an ideal stacking/collecting strategy because it’s like the supermarket scenario during the coronavirus pandemic when all the cheaper jars of honey have sold out and all you’re left with is expensive eucalyptus honey. However, the tide might turn in my favour when it comes to selling these numismatic sovereigns at auction.

[dicker]

Some find a natural progression from beautiful bullion coins to numismatic coins. Enjoy and good luck 

Best

Dicker

[jultorsk]

RCM production is reportedly offline for the next two weeks at least may leave a dent to Maple supply.

What about your thoughts on this Martin Armstrong note - can't believe it myself; has Armstrong completely lost the plot due to Corona? 😬

"Europe has directed bullion dealers not to sell to individuals."

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/europe-to-confiscate-gold/ 

 

[Empire]

On 21/03/2020 at 22:29, Andy said:

Royal Mint appears to have run out of sovs. Only 1/2s and doubles left at the moment.

The Royal Mint bullion site has stock. However the premiums on sovs are like 13% last time I checked...

[Toshunya86]

On 21/03/2020 at 23:57, Serendipity said:

Yes, I have noticed this which is why I’ve switched to buying numismatic or graded sovereigns rather than bullion or international coins. It’s not an ideal stacking/collecting strategy because it’s like the supermarket scenario during the coronavirus pandemic when all the cheaper jars of honey have sold out and all you’re left with is expensive eucalyptus honey. However, the tide might turn in my favour when it comes to selling these numismatic sovereigns at auction.

I actually had the same thoughts.

To use your comparison 

It s like if pasta rice grains etc ( bullion ) would be 20% more expansive.

While the caviar ( numismatics ) has the same price.

So I d probably go for some other things which aren't the cheapest but still have the same value than before ( semi numismatics )

Actually it might even be slightly cheaper if spot doesnt go up too much. I'm sure that most dealers didn't touch premiums above 35-40% as they already do not sell much and this is a normal market price . Also historical semi numismatics usually do not work with high volume inventory so it doesn't bother dealers to honour an order on this. 

If spot goes really up in a few weeks/months then my 50% premium becomes 20-30% and there would be a slight rise on the price of those in auctions. Just my 1.5 cents 

[Serendipity]

On 22/03/2020 at 17:47, dicker said:

Some find a natural progression from beautiful bullion coins to numismatic coins. Enjoy and good luck 

Best

Dicker

Thanks @dicker for the thumbs up! I promise to give you a shout when I showcase my next numismatic sovereign. Which sovereign? It’s one of the earliest and scarcest sovereigns in existence. The lockdown of non-essential businesses announced by the PM doesn’t affect in anyway the online sale of bullion and/or numismatic coins.

[jultorsk]

The plot thickens https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanz...html?ticket=ST-69761-62nqbMSgvZlN2vTq4eIb-ap3
[Google Translate]
The Swiss canton of Ticino has closed all industrial plants that are classified as "not critical" because of the corona virus. This includes three of the largest gold bar manufacturers in the world.

According to the Argor-Heraeus company, production at the Mendrisio site will be suspended until early April. Valcambi in neighboring Balerna also wants to stop production by the end of March, as a spokeswoman confirmed. The Pamp refinery in Castel San Pietro is also affected.

Estimates based on Swiss customs statistics show that around 70 percent of the gold mined worldwide is processed in Switzerland. Three of the five major Swiss ingot manufacturers are located in Ticino, the Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Because of its proximity to the Corona crisis areas in Italy, the canton also introduced strict measures in the fight against the virus.

As a result, the supply chains of the gold industry are likely to continue to be mixed up. Swiss bar manufacturers had to concede delivery bottlenecks last week because numerous employees live in Italy and cross-border traffic was extremely restricted. In addition, there had been delays in the value transports that German traders supply with gold from Switzerland.

Numerous gold traders in Germany were therefore practically sold out last week or asked their customers to wait up to ten days. The premiums for bars and coins, i.e. the surcharge for physical precious metal compared to the world market price, had also increased significantly recently. Giovanni Staunovo, commodity expert at the Swiss bank UBS, expects both to get worse. "The premiums for physical precious metals will continue to rise."

Because of the sell-off on the stock market, the demand for physical precious metals is high. Many internet shops were overloaded. Demand is also high internationally: the inflow into gold-backed index funds has recently reached a record level. But bars and coins are in short supply in Germany, Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Roßbach, precious metal expert at Fragold, also expects. "You can't get gold at the moment," he says.

High premiums

This is not only due to the bottlenecks in the Swiss refineries. The Australian coin, the state mint, also announced at the weekend that it would cease production. Wrzesniok-Roßbach assumes that the South African Rand Refinery, manufacturer of the Krugerrand, will also follow the example: "The production stop will then apply almost worldwide."

How difficult it is to get gold today can be read on the websites of the major traders. Pro Aurum from Munich informed customers on Monday that the online shop would be closed by Wednesday and that only then would it be possible to deliver a "very limited" range.

The reason for this is that the value logistics company Prosegur, which takes over deliveries of goods from 25,000 euros, has stopped deliveries to private individuals until further notice. Degussa Goldhandel also reports on its website that orders over 25,000 euros will no longer be accepted because the value transport to customers is not possible.

The chaos in logistics and the bottlenecks have therefore driven up the premium in the few internet shops that can still deliver at all. In some products, these can sometimes reach 30 percent, according to Wrzesniok-Roßbach. He therefore currently advises investors against buying physical precious metals. In view of the premiums, the gold price must rise significantly so that the purchase at the current conditions does not turn out to be a loss. Instead, investors should wait until the situation on the physical precious metals market relaxes.

The gold price is likely to rise in the medium term. In addition to the extremely loose central bank policy, the rising government debt also speaks for this. Low interest rates and protection against inflation are the main arguments for buying gold. From Wrzesniok-Roßbach's point of view, however, it is not worth falling into a buying panic when there is a shortage of gold and buying precious metal despite high premiums. As is so often the case on the financial markets, patience should pay off for investors.

More: Germans hamster gold and push precious metal traders to their limits.