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Amount of silver bought


Dutchsilverstacker

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Trigger Warning, you might not like what you're about to read.

 

As @goldking pointed out, 103 years ago silver was US$18.00 an ounce, today it is still US$18.00 an ounce - it's actually US$17.81 as I type this but close enough to call it US$18.00 an ounce. @Roy posted a link to a very interesting and eye opening article by Dominic Frisby dated February 12 2020 - MoneyWeek’s main commentator on gold, commodities, currencies and cryptocurrencies, titled You should all own some silver. Just don’t expect it to make you rich.  To quote from the article:

''They say that the way to get rich in mining is not through mining, but by selling picks and shovels. If you want a picks-and-shovels play on the amazing world we are living in, the extraordinary technologies that are emerging, the expanding middle-classes of Asia, Africa, Eastern Europe and South America, then surely silver is the picks-and-shovels play. It’s a picks-and-shovels play on the 21st century.

And here we are today. Silver is $17.50 an ounce. It was $17.50 an ounce in 1979. I was ten years old in 1979. I am 50. Forty years of buy and hold – and nothing. Is that all I have to show for 40 years of prescience?''

In other words silver is the red headed stepchild of the precious metals, yes we all hope and think we can see the potential in the child, but like all red heads - except for Irish women, they all turn out to be heartless souless buggers.

Now I've seen it mentioned on here several times, and have also read it in several books about investing/speculating in precious metals that not too long ago 1 ounce of silver was the average pay for a days work, now ask yourself this, ''would you put in a days work for less than US$20.00''?  I sure as hell wouldn't, I wouldn't even get out of bed for US$20.00 for a days work, yet alone an hour of work.

Now consider that US$18.00 was actually a hell of a lot of money 103 years ago - taking inflation into account US$18.00 in 1903 works out to be worth US$527.67 in 2020, if you use Dominic Frisby's numbers - US$17.50 an ounce in 1979 and US$17.50 an ounce in 2020, taking inflation into account US$17.50 in 1979 works out to be worth US$65.18 in 2020.  If anybody cares to check my figures here is the inflation calculator that I used.  Silver has not only failed to keep up with inflation, but it is worth less now per ounce than it ever has been, and it continues to fail to keep up with inflation in a spectacular manner, and keeps losing it's value that it is actually rarely the sole product that mining companies mine for, it's generally a byproduct of mining for other minerals, metals and ores.  Even the YouTube clip that @StackerCollector posted showed that there are very very few mining companies that soley make their profits from mining silver, in fact not one single mining company mentioned in that YouTube clip soley made it's profits from the mining/selling of silver - the presenter himself even points this out in the Youtube clip himself and even recommends stocks in mining companies instead and even suggests a few, and of those that do, you can count on one hand and have fingers to spare the number of mining companies that make close to or over 50% of their profits from the sale/mining of silver.

Now I have nothing against silver, or silver stackers, I've become a silver staker myself recently, so I'm not posting this to insult, belittle or even bully people who stack or collect silver.  I'm simply saying be very very wary of silver pumpers, people promising, predicting and even guaranteeing that the spot price of silver is about to sky rocket, and the only reason why it hasn't happened yet is due to price manipulation from everyone from governments, banks, wealthy individuals, and even aliens.  These are the same sort of people that religiously believe that the entire world's financial system is about to collapse any day now, even though history and current events has shown that when financial systems do collapse it happens locally not globally, some countries and individuals even benefit when other countries financial system collapse, and even bet on it, or try to make it happen - Argentina, Greece, Venezuela, or Zimbabwe ring any bells?  Unfortunately every silver pumper and his dog seems to have their own Youtube channel and can refer to and post other silver pumpers nonsense as undeniable proof of their nothing short of fanatically views on silver, silver prices, the global economy and the guaranteed eventual collapse of the world's financial system - which according to these silvers pumpers will be happening anytime soon, yet they keep posting videos predicting the impending collapse of the world's financial system either every year, month, or even week. 

My advice to anybody thinking about investing/speculating in silver is this, the second you want to buy your first few ounces or more of silver, don't, instead put that money towards buying yourself a few different books about investing/speculating in precious metals, and study them - that means not just reading them, but reading them more than once and making sure that you understand them and the concepts that they talk about, that's what I did.  I joined this forum back on August 30 2019 - My very first post, and it wasn't until January of this year - 2020, that I actually bought any silver for the first time - I don't consider jewelry either gold or silver jewelry to be investing/speculating as you are not only paying the spot price for the metal that the jewelry is made from, but you are also paying for ''workmanship'', design, retailer's markup/branding and in some cases taxes, and you will never recover the cost of the ''workmanship'', design nor the retailer's markup/branding should you ever decide to or need to sell the jewelry, you'll be lucky to get spot value unless it's a special piece of jewelry - historical significance, manufacturer/jeweler no longer exists, highly sought after jeweler that could never keep up with demand much like Hermes handbags, which basically means that you will always lose money on mass produced jewelry unless there is a very significant rise in the materials spot price.

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You are correct with your figures. And HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY! 😁

But just like with any other investment besides PM, be it ETFs, stocks or else, no one knows what the future will bring. I, as a German, am aware of our financial history - we have had a hyperinflation, a currency reform in 1945 and another currency reform with the advent of the Euro. In all cases people holding paper money lost. Those with PM including silver were able to maintain part of their wealth in PM and some made more than decent profits selling or trading in their PM. Who can guarantee that none of these events do happen again? Nobody unfortunately. So I keep on stacking... just got me another tube of 25 Brits 👍

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25 minutes ago, StackerCollector said:

You are correct with your figures. And HOPE IS NOT A STRATEGY! 😁

But just like with any other investment besides PM, be it ETFs, stocks or else, no one knows what the future will bring. I, as a German, am aware of our financial history - we have had a hyperinflation, a currency reform in 1945 and another currency reform with the advent of the Euro. In all cases people holding paper money lost. Those with PM including silver were able to maintain part of their wealth in PM and some made more than decent profits selling or trading in their PM. Who can guarantee that none of these events do happen again? Nobody unfortunately. So I keep on stacking... just got me another tube of 25 Brits 👍

 

for all those problems that pm's can solve there is

always gold. silver pumpers try to push silver as the

solution to these problems where in reality, gold is

a better solution for everything silver can do except

speculation. (people pay dearly for choosing silver

over gold, this is where silver pumpers get their

profits from)

there is no reason to choose silver over gold in any

of the possible emergency cases.

(people who trade in physical pm's with a profit are

trading gold. silver usually makes people a loss/

smaller profit.)

 

HH

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3 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

for all those problems that pm's can solve there is

always gold. silver pumpers try to push silver as the

solution to these problems where in reality, gold is

a better solution for everything silver can do except

speculation. (people pay dearly for choosing silver

over gold, this is where silver pumpers get their

profits from)

there is no reason to choose silver over gold in any

of the possible emergency cases.

(people who trade in physical pm's with a profit are

trading gold. silver usually makes people a loss/

smaller profit.)

 

HH

Silver went to $55 in 2011. I am pretty sure some investors made profits on that move. But to be all in on silver I wouldn't recommend either. Central banks keep buying gold - and they even explain openly as to why. I'll buy some more sovereigns as soon as price dips a little more.

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On 14/02/2020 at 08:42, Seth said:

It wasn't silver itself that bankrupted the Hunt brothers - they where the sons of a Texas oil billionaire so they actually  could and did settle their losses with silver the family fortune even survived and profited off of it, what bankrupted them was that they where sued in a civil court almost a decade later by a Peruvian mining company for loss of income.  Rather it was a change in the rules that cost the Hunt brothers a fortune, or moving of the goal posts, with regards to silver and all commodities future contracts, and exchange rules to do with leverage brought in on January 7 1980 in response to the Hunt brothers cornering of the silver markek, Tiffany - the jewellers, even took out a full page advert in he New York Times denouncing the Hunts brothers cornering of the silver market in March of 1980 stating ''We think it is unconscionable for anyone to hoard several billion, yes billion, dollars' worth of silver and thus drive the price up so high that others must pay artificially high prices for articles made of silver''.  The so called ''Silver Rule Number 7'', something that is still in place today is for the exact purpose of preventing a single person or entity from cornering the market in any commodity especially silver.

But DeBeers and Diamonds is different

Decus et tutamen (an ornament and a safeguard)

YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC5OjxoCIsDbMgx7MM_l4CmA

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33 minutes ago, StackerCollector said:

Silver went to $55 in 2011. I am pretty sure some investors made profits on that move. But to be all in on silver I wouldn't recommend either. Central banks keep buying gold - and they even explain openly as to why. I'll buy some more sovereigns as soon as price dips a little more.

 

it's great choosing silver if you have a working crystal ball.

 

in reality:

 

shadowstacker buys lots of silver brits in dec 2015 at £10/oz

(in short he nailed the bottom, no joke on the skill, expertise

and maybe a little luck required to achieve this.)

his silver brits are now worth ~£17/oz. profit 70% over 4 years.

 

rookie me buys gold at £186 for a sov about 6 years ago.

that sov can now sell for ~£290 or a 55% profit.

(over 10% off the lows, expertise: none, skill... what's that

then?, admittedly a little luck my way.)

 

is shadowstackers expertise etc. in silver only worth 15%

extra profit over a rookie buy in gold?

 

(people like quoting $50/oz in silver. in reality how many

managed to sell within 10% of that figure? (look at the

time frame open to make that trade))

 

HH

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Silver is a great way of saving money, month after month, for those that can’t afford gold. Of course, after a surprisingly short time of doing this, you can afford gold.

Every now and then you can also realise decent profits.

I don’t know who Shadowstacker is, but I’m willing to bet that they bought just as much silver on the way to the highs in 2011, as they did at the lows in 2015, much like myself.

Learning where to buy, and more importantly, where to sell, is the key to making the most of silver savings.

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12 minutes ago, Shinus73 said:

Silver is a great way of saving money, month after month, for those that can’t afford gold. Of course, after a surprisingly short time of doing this, you can afford gold.

Every now and then you can also realise decent profits.

Why do you need to buy silver first in order to buy gold?  What am I missing here?  :unsure:

You lose money buying silver (premium), you lose money selling silver (premium) and the fiat priced hasn't changed more than a couple quid in 100 years with the exception of 2 very short periods in 1980 and 2011, so where are you realising these "decent profits" ?

Why can't you just buy gold directly?

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4 minutes ago, goldking said:

Why do you need to buy silver first in order to buy gold?  What am I missing here?  :unsure:

You lose money buying silver (premium), you lose money selling silver (premium) and the fiat priced hasn't changed more than a couple quid in 100 years with the exception of 2 very short periods in 1980 and 2011, so where are you realising these "decent profits" ?

Why can't you just buy gold directly?

I said it was a suitable approach for those that couldn’t afford gold. If you only have £20-£30 spare per month you’re not buying gold without paying a large premium. You can buy junk silver with little or no premium or even one or two ounces on the forum at a decent price. 
Profit can be made consistently on eBay, buy desirable, semi numismatic silver from Europe and sell at £2 or £3 profit every time. I can assure you it’s true, as I’ve been doing it for the last 10 years.

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5 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

Nice try but Silver wasn't $18 103 years ago it was $0.84 the chart posted was inflation adjusted, you cant apply all the inflation since 1917 twice... thats cheating ;)

This is the nominal price chart

https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

Where is this utopia you're living where this is no inflation?  :lol:   You can't be serious.  Even if you choose to completely ignore inflation, the price of silver hasn't increased since 1980 - 40 years ago.  When you adjust for inflation, you've lost money.

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Also, if we're going down this nonsensical road of ignorning inflation :lol:,  gold has increased from $20 to $1585.  Yes you did read that right - $20 !   Looks a lot better than the actual $500 it was in real terms once inflation in taken into account, doesn't it?  Anyone can fudge the figures to make them fit with their own personal bias.

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5 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

You are completely missing the point that although the inflation adjusted chart is more useful than the nominal figures, it is ridicules to then compound the same adjustment on the adjusted figures. Laugh all you like LOL

Show me where the figures have had inflation applied twice to them.

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2 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

You obviously need help with the chart you posted. If the inflation adjusted price from 103 years is the same as today then you have neither made or lost money holding Silver.

Exactly.  But that was already established 2.5 days ago in my post on Thursday lunchtime.  If you haven't made or lost money then what's the point investing in it ?  As stated many times already once you factor in your losses on premiums from buying and selling then it's been a complete waste of your time as you've achieved absolutely nothing.

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29 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

Great, so we both agree with the content of my original post. 👍🤣

Yes, I see what you're saying now.  It's true, you didn't actually pay $18 for an ounce of silver in 1917, it was 83 cents like you say, but the point Seth has trying to make was that in real terms it costs the same to buy today as it did in 1917, thus making it a terrible investment. :)

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I think seth didn't realise that the $18 was already inflation adjusted.

(probably mixed up the inflation adjusted 1903 $18 figure with the

1979 non-inflation adjusted figure of $17.50.)

 

9 hours ago, Seth said:

And here we are today. Silver is $17.50 an ounce. It was $17.50 an ounce in 1979. I was ten years old in 1979. I am 50. Forty years of buy and hold – and nothing. Is that all I have to show for 40 years of prescience?''

this is the key sentence(as highlighted in bold on the original post).

possibly 40 years of time and maybe effort with absolutely nothing

to show for it.

(this sentence is true and not affected by the mix up in the maths)

 

HH

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1 hour ago, zhoutonged said:

Well Im glad that's settled. If I may interject again 🤔lol

If we look at inflation adjusted Gold prices from the chart below we see that in 2001 we have a price of $379 which is considerably less than the "inflation adjusted' price of $496 from 1915, thus making Gold an even worse investment in that particular time frame. But had you made such a terrible investment in Gold in 2001, today you would have realised a return of over 400% in real terms!

My point being... what outperformed yesterday doesn't always outperform tomorrow. 

Buy low sell high my old gran told me, even though I expect higher Gold prices this year it's certainly expensive compared to Silver.

https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

 

cherry pick all the data you want.

(I'm not even going to work out how low the silver price was

compared to it's inflation adjusted price from 1915 and 2001

wasn't even the cycle low for silver.)

 

it doesn't change the fact that it has been much more

difficult to turn a profit with silver.

it doesn't matter that gold is currently expensive compared

to silver. ability to turn a profit in the time frame allocated is

everything when it comes to an investment.

investing is a forward looking venture. buy into things that

you expect to go up in value. cheap can get cheaper and

expensive can get more expensive, and it can go on for years,

or decades. computing prices have been going down on

average for over 30 years. pricing pressure on the same

industrial use for silver? solar, photography, electronics,

which of these are going up in value?

silver has a forty year cycle(so they say). the tops occurred in

1980 and 2011. can we expect the next cycle to be in

2011+31 or 2042? we might not have another pick up in the

silver price for another 10+ years?

what would I rather put my money in:

1. something that is historically difficult to turn a profit and

has done poorly for me so far.

2. something that has managed to turn a profit for me so far.

 

HH

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1 hour ago, zhoutonged said:

For me at the moment Gold is historically way too expensive whatever metric you use to value it.

in $'s gold hasn't even approached it's 2011 high.

 

1 hour ago, zhoutonged said:

I speculate the gold silver ratio will plunge over the next few years :)

that was said at a gsr of 70, and 75, and 80, and 85

 

1 hour ago, zhoutonged said:

Obviously there are different characteristics but both can be used to preserve wealth as an insurance/safe haven.

gold is hands down better than silver at this. 

 

1 hour ago, zhoutonged said:

Neither Gold or Silver will show any profit over the long term, they are both hard assets yielding zero dividends.

by their nature these assets don't yield dividends.

silver has tracked inflation from 100 years ago.

gold has exceeded inflation from 100 years ago,

as seen by the higher trending gsr.

so this statement is only true for silver and not for

gold.

 

silver is not comparable to gold, not even close.

 

HH

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1 minute ago, zhoutonged said:

Great arguments if you see the GSR trending ever higher making higher highs ad infinitum for no apparent reason. Or you could be a realist and accept sharp corrections in the GSR are terrific opportunities for making real gains. PS if you are buying Gold with £ the $ price is a moot point.

But as my old gran used to say buy low sell high ;)

Good luck too all! 😇

 

You do realise that the GSR hasn't had any relevance since the late 1800s right ?  Even less so since the silver standard ended.  I don't understand why people keep quoting it like it's of some importance.  It seems to get trotted out on every silver youtube channel as the reason you must buy now.  Unsurprisingly, most of them have an affiliate link code to a coin dealer and/or they are already holding several kilos of the stuff.:rolleyes:

Let's look at a 100 year GSR chart :

https://www.macrotrends.net/1441/gold-to-silver-ratio

Are you seeing any pattern here?  All I'm seeing is a pattern of silver doing its own thing and gold doing its own thing.  There is no correlation between the 2, which is unsurprising considering that silver is an industrial metal now and gold is a precious metal - 2 completely different and unrelated markets. 

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25 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

PS if you are buying Gold with £ the $ price is a moot point.

last time I checked. world trade in gold was denominated

in us dollars. maybe you could show the overpriced gold

price in zimbabwe dollars or venezuelan bolivars to show

the overpricing to better effect.

the reality is the gold priced in the weakened £, that is the

moot point. the world is bigger than britain. a world currency

like gold does not care what any local currency thinks.

 

28 minutes ago, zhoutonged said:

Or you could be a realist and accept sharp corrections in the GSR are terrific opportunities for making real gains.

who is the one not being realistic here?

facts remains that gold has outperformed silver in the last

100 years. it 'could' correct in a few years or take up to

another 100 years if it wants to 'correct'.

 

HH

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On 14/02/2020 at 10:17, Platinum said:

I believe silver has great potential as an investment for both uncertain economic periods and future industry needed metal.

In investment terms because the silver price is very low compared to other hard assets and during economic downturns the price will likely go up as it will be the next best thing after gold. And it may also rise as we use more and more technology that requires the metal at the same time the miners who produce it can barely make a profit with these prices.

If you see the run on solarpanels and the amount of silver in them its just crazy how low the silverprice really is lol :P people are crazy to not back up the truck ;) 

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