Is Deutsche Bank going to collapse in 2020?

[vw1972]

Here is a great video from George Gammon where he breaks Down Deutsche Banks financial status, and explains the possible Federal reserve Repo market bailout. 

Some say that Deutsche Bank is already insolvent/bankrupt, but is being Bailed out by the federal reserve via the repo market. 

When the next recession comes, it will be very interesting to see if DB is going to survive. And if not, we can expect an Lehman like situation, where panic erupts in the global financial system, wich again will mean Precious metals Will se massive increase in prices 

 

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MFhQNugglXk

 

 

[JunkBond]

 

[HawkHybrid]

what would cause deutsche bank to collapse in 2020?

what's the odds of a collapse in an election year?

 

HH

[Martlet]

Two problems with the video.  I dont think the CCP is described correctly, as i understand it they are intended to reduce risk.  In first instance they act as a broker, confirming the transfer of funds or instruments.  Being liable to failure/default is secondary and would expect to be hedged, with the party defaulting go first, not the broker.  Other thing is the repo market is temporary, one time over night intervention, not ongoing.  He also seem surprised the market cap is less than the derivatives value, which is normal, the market cap is the value of the business not their loan books (business value is a product of the profit made on the loans). 

The state of DB is shaky to be sure, not from this, but bad debts on thier books. 

[SendYourCoin2Me]

I havent watched the video above, but anyone who understands derivatives, understands the massive hole that DB is in.  All the banks are incestously linked.  When DB goes, they will all go. 😥

[vw1972]

4 hours ago, Martlet said:

Two problems with the video.  I dont think the CCP is described correctly, as i understand it they are intended to reduce risk.  In first instance they act as a broker, confirming the transfer of funds or instruments.  Being liable to failure/default is secondary and would expect to be hedged, with the party defaulting go first, not the broker.  Other thing is the repo market is temporary, one time over night intervention, not ongoing.  He also seem surprised the market cap is less than the derivatives value, which is normal, the market cap is the value of the business not their loan books (business value is a product of the profit made on the loans). 

The state of DB is shaky to be sure, not from this, but bad debts on thier books. 

The Fed are putting in billion of dollars in the repo market every day, and will continiue to do so through january. So its not at single or temporary event, that there is a shortage of funds in the repo market.

 

You can see it on the feds website here: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details

We know DB received loans from the fed in 2008, because their derivatives deals are stongly connected to the other major Wall street banks.

[Martlet]

32 minutes ago, vw1972 said:

The Fed are putting in billion of dollars in the repo market every day, and will continiue to do so through january. So its not at single or temporary event, that there is a shortage of funds in the repo market.

 

You can see it on the feds website here: https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/domestic-market-operations/monetary-policy-implementation/repo-reverse-repo-agreements/repurchase-agreement-operational-details

We know DB received loans from the fed in 2008, because their derivatives deals are stongly connected to the other major Wall street banks.

Thanks, im thinking of the event in September, and mixing overnight lending with extended term lending, or "QE that isnt QE".  Though its largely short term, rolled over lending that provides liquidity.   The video (and other sources) are overstating how much money is going in and overlooking its paid back or rolled over next period. 

[Deputydog]

This depends on what happens with the new K.I.M.S (Key Integrated Monetary System) financial system. All banks, UN, IMF and other major organizations have no money, this is why you are seeing internet banking going wrong. They are using this and double charging on credit cards (check your statement to make sure this is not happened to you)  to try and balance the books. Behind the scenes the banking is going through a major overhaul, this is being delayed by people who do not want change. An example of this is that certain people had private access to stock prices 6 seconds ahead of what was shown in the stock market, this has now been closed.  US debt has been paid, this information is being withheld deliberately.

[Xander]

7 hours ago, Deputydog said:

They are using this and double charging on credit cards

That's true, I just got double charged on my credit card.

My friend is just back from skiing in Switzerland and reckons the banks are struggling with the same problems you mentioned.  

[dicker]

7 hours ago, Deputydog said:

This depends on what happens with the new K.I.M.S (Key Integrated Monetary System) financial system. All banks, UN, IMF and other major organizations have no money, this is why you are seeing internet banking going wrong. They are using this and double charging on credit cards (check your statement to make sure this is not happened to you)  to try and balance the books. Behind the scenes the banking is going through a major overhaul, this is being delayed by people who do not want change. An example of this is that certain people had private access to stock prices 6 seconds ahead of what was shown in the stock market, this has now been closed.  US debt has been paid, this information is being withheld deliberately.

Hi 

I think that with respect to the 6 second advantage you are referencing the BoE briefings?  I can personally assure you (as someone who worked on building low latency trading systems and links to exchanges) that there is nothing like a 6 second delay to stock prices.  If I could shave off 10ms of interactions with an exchange it would be a big win. 
 

Best

Dicker

[Deputydog]

All the banks and major organizations are in the same position, they have no money and are hiding this fact, saying that banks never had money, they have our money.

The FED and the IRS are not part of the American government, the FED is a private company and the IRS is a trust fund based in Puerto Rico.

There is no law in the UK that says you have to pay tax, we pay it voluntary.

 

 

[Deputydog]

3 minutes ago, dicker said:

Hi 

I think that with respect to the 6 second advantage you are referencing the BoE briefings?  I can personally assure you (as someone who worked on building low latency trading systems and links to exchanges) that there is nothing like a 6 second delay to stock prices.  If I could shave off 10ms of interactions with an exchange it would be a big win. 
 

Best

Dicker

Hi, i am not referring the BoE briefings, i have got this information from another source. 

Deputydog

[dicker]

Ah ok.  Well as a humble engineer I can assure you that trading on any of the major exchanges this does not happen prices are real-time. 
 

Banks and trading houses go to the expense of laying their own fibre to exchanges, locating buildings physically close to the exchanges infrastructure to ensure tiny ms differences. 
 

A reasonable book on this is Flash Boys by Michael Lewis.
 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_latency_(capital_markets)

[Deputydog]

Everybody is entitled to their option and thanks for joining in this conversation.

[Xander]

Does anyone on the forum use "Neo banks"?

[SendYourCoin2Me]

4 hours ago, Octopus said:

What happens if that opinion is the world is flat?

People are entitled to be wrong 🤣

As for banking issues etc mentioned above, these 'outages' are all planned tests.  When the crash happens, we will see an instant 'bank holiday'  when they reopen and markets reopen the next day, and if the crash continues (and it will because confidence will have collapsed) we could see several weeks of 'bank holiday'. Meantime cash machines will be empty and online transactions unavailable.  They can, and will, switch the system off.  Be ready for the bail-in, when the banks take 30, 40, 50% or more of your deposits.

[5huggy]

2 hours ago, SendYourCoin2Me said:

People are entitled to be wrong 🤣

As for banking issues etc mentioned above, these 'outages' are all planned tests.  When the crash happens, we will see an instant 'bank holiday'  when they reopen and markets reopen the next day, and if the crash continues (and it will because confidence will have collapsed) we could see several weeks of 'bank holiday'. Meantime cash machines will be empty and online transactions unavailable.  They can, and will, switch the system off.  Be ready for the bail-in, when the banks take 30, 40, 50% or more of your deposits.

The first "proper " tests were Greece and Cyprus - - Its "SCARY" - I was in the middle of it in Cyprus! 

It looked (outside banks front steps) extremely reminiscent of the 20's depression