My take on gold short term trend graphic

[Frenchie]

I don't know if forumers here are interested with chart analysis, but here is my take (please note I am not a professionnal !)

Before resuming its uptrend  way higher around year's end (may be in november), I think  the short term trend is lower IMHO

We have broken the support at 1485 and the Fibonacci retracement at 23,6% (1490) (A), the ascending support (around 1520) (1) is now resistance, as the descending resistance from the highs and we could retest the 1515/1525 area without invalidating the downtrend.

The next supports levels : (2) around 1440/1450 : ascending support from the beginning of july, Fibonacci retracement (B at  38,2% around 1446), ascending moving average 100 daily (in red)   then if broken, the very strong level (3) around 1380/1400   : 6 years old strong horizontal resistance, now become support,  Fibonacci retracement (D at 50% 1375), confluence of ascending Moving average 200 daily (brown) and Exp moving average 200 daily       

My downtrend scenario would be invalidated if we have an uptrend move above 1540             

 

Just my 2 cts of course             

 

[Pete]

A significant drop would be nice so I can justify continuing with my QB collection.
 

[HawkHybrid]

2 hours ago, Frenchie said:

My downtrend scenario would be invalidated if we have an uptrend move above 1540 

 

not entirely true.

the red line channel that might be forming would

be broken but the overall down move will still be

intact if and until it breaks ~$1560.

(in elliott wave, wave 4 flat style corrections are

quite common) 

if you extend the red falling channel to a 50%

retracement of the move up (~$1411). the bottom

of the channel touches the retracement line at

about 31st oct. are people preparing to sell gold

leading into brexit or is this just a coincidence?

 

HH

[goldmember44]

I can see why you say that, for me it seems like it can go either way from this point... 

[KDave]

Its down first quite significantly, then up. Wave 4 and 5. Imo. 

[Paul]

https://giphy.com/gifs/3ohs7Rl6L4zG2rvHoc/html5

[Paul]

 

This tried and tested method of timing the market works well 

[blindguy]

I am not much on charts. I guess I am old school as I go with my gut feelings. My feelings are that this whole world is screwed up and will get worse before it gets better.Most of our govt. officials are more worried about keeping their job then doing their job. The stock markets are so full of unicorns that unicorns are no longer on the endangered species list. I never could understand why you would invest in a company that has never made money. Kind of like betting on a horse that has no legs, he does not run very fast!  I like investments that are solid an proven to make money so I will stick with gold  silver and land for the time being.  Jim

[AurumArgenti]

Funnily enough this article just drop in my feed.

https://moneyweek.com/515916/the-precious-metals-rollercoaster-is-heading-into-a-big-dip/

[dicker]

4 hours ago, Paul said:

 

This tried and tested method of timing the market works well 

Agreed.  Why have people And banks tried to rig markets with short term trading and low latency trading with exchanges...well because it’s so hard to predict the future.  
 

Great graph though - always good to see people’s thoughts and ideas. 
 

[Frenchie]

7 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

not entirely true.

the red line channel that might be forming would

be broken but the overall down move will still be

intact if and until it breaks ~$1560.

(in elliott wave, wave 4 flat style corrections are

quite common) 

Yes I agree with you. Say 1485/1560 is neutral with a sideway consolidation. And a higher high above 1557 +  a successful retest around 1540 would definitely indicate that the trend will be ready to resume to the upside

[silvernewbie]

Can definately see a short term Gold retrace, the week markets are causing it to hold 

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olZr9MaKeAk

at 4:00, buy in winter sell in late spring(wait for 9%+

move up from the winter lows).

the op analysis suggests that this might continue to

work for a 7th year.

 

HH

[KDave]

I hope he is correct and we get to pick up a few Christmas sovereigns, its become a tradition.

[vand]

Price is still in "correction" mode and could be for a while yet. I'm a big believer in the strength of moving averages wrt the gold price.

The moving averages need to come closer to the spot price before the market is ready to make a new move to higher highs. This can come about through a longer period of price stability, or (more likely) some further downside to spot price. Typically prices need to retrace to within about 5% of the 200dma following a big move. Historically any dips below the 200dma have been excellent entry points.

[HawkHybrid]

if gold breaks the channel now, it could retest ~$1536

before moving lower.

 

HH

[paolo]

i usually have been into charts for long time, but now, given the world situation, i think is not time to watch chart anymore but  better to watch what is happening all around us, from Hong Kong to Bolivia, via Middle Est. A wild card or black swan can happen anytime at this point, and it will have much much more weight on the price that any technical set up in the metals. 

Just my opinion :):)

[Frenchie]

On 25/10/2019 at 11:12, HawkHybrid said:

if gold breaks the channel now, it could retest ~$1536

before moving lower.

 

HH

My first target (1450) to the downside has been tested last week. Is it enough to resume to the next main leg to the upside ?

1480 is a short term resistance now . My scenario is a test at 1480 (though after testing the lowest at 1445 we have may be already made the pull back aound 1475) before heading lower : my target is 1410/1420. But I can't exclude a  possible oversold quick dip around 1390/1400 (brown MA 200). At this stage, we will be ready for the next uptrend, target 1700/1720 for me

Either way, the actual correction is healthy and very constructive.

IMHO if I want to load on physical, this is a good time; I would buy after a rebound to the 1420s on the downside, or buy to the upside  after breaking the downtrend red resistance and succesful pull back on it around 1520s 

Of course again this thread is my own feeling and not for advice purpose as I am not professionnal 

[HawkHybrid]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uFyGinFlUg

$1730 target if it moves up from $1600.

 

HH

[Realwealthuprising]

I think with the price moving so strongly on the fear and worry around, with Trump in power and the upcoming US election this year there will be constant panics and mini crises...this along with a polarised Europe and then the brexit trade negotiations should help ensure gold catches plenty of tailwinds to make a move towards 1700

[Agnostic]

On 16/11/2019 at 13:41, Frenchie said:

My first target (1450) to the downside has been tested last week. Is it enough to resume to the next main leg to the upside ?

1480 is a short term resistance now . My scenario is a test at 1480 (though after testing the lowest at 1445 we have may be already made the pull back aound 1475) before heading lower : my target is 1410/1420. But I can't exclude a  possible oversold quick dip around 1390/1400 (brown MA 200). At this stage, we will be ready for the next uptrend, target 1700/1720 for me

Either way, the actual correction is healthy and very constructive.

IMHO if I want to load on physical, this is a good time; I would buy after a rebound to the 1420s on the downside, or buy to the upside  after breaking the downtrend red resistance and succesful pull back on it around 1520s 

Of course again this thread is my own feeling and not for advice purpose as I am not professionnal 

 

Good call