Thoughts on when to stop?

[Mark10110]

I have been having thoughts that I have struggled with on my next purchase which should be next week, At what price should I stop buying gold/silver? I am not asking you guys to tell me when I should stop but I am curious if you guys have a limit? 

For example my limit I am wiling to keep buying silver is at the £20 mark and with the dreaded B word making silver cost north of £20 with tax I have put the brakes on that

As for Gold... I  don't know. The charts show gold at an all time high and I am having inner battles on if it is viable to buy now.

Some of you guys must be having the same inner conflict?

[Norskgeld]

I just buy gold.

I will continue to buy each month until I retire in about 9 years.

I look at the spot price but it doesn't influence my buying strategy.

I still reckon PM's will preserve my wealth against inflation.

[firestacker]

If central banks stopped exponentially printing I might consider easing back on gold but that's never going to happen.

Right now I mainly look at it from an allocation percentage. Only 1% of my net worth is in gold right now (more in the likes of silver and bitcoin) but I'm trying to increase this over time because when you look at the general market most people are 100% in index funds and thats it. The fact that many won't even consider a 1% allocation shows us how far we've got to go.

[Jvw]

I have the same conflict, but I also agree and take to Norskgeld's strategy. 

I keep buying and will continue to do so until my spendingfunds dry out. I also keep an eye on spot, but I have a set plan and I try and stick to it. I'm in it for the long haul so I try not worry too much about selling/buyin at the present.

[Mark10110]

Just now, firestacker said:

If central banks stopped exponentially printing I might consider easing back on gold but that's never going to happen.

Right now I mainly look at it from an allocation percentage. Only 1% of my net worth is in gold right now (more in the likes of silver and bitcoin) but I'm trying to increase this over time because when you look at the general market most people are 100% in index funds and thats it. The fact that many won't even consider a 1% allocation shows us how far we've got to go.

I got lucky with bitcoin and got in at the bottom in January, but being into crypto has made me more alert about buying at highs

[firestacker]

22 minutes ago, Mark10110 said:

I got lucky with bitcoin and got in at the bottom in January, but being into crypto has made me more alert about buying at highs

All the drivers for gold are pointing to a higher price right now. China is devaluing their currency for cheaper exports, trump wants a weaker dollar to compete, no deal brexit likelyhood is increasing uncertainty in the market and the likes of negative interest rates becoming the norm with these number of bonds reaching an all time high of $15 trillion. Relative to the USD gold still has 26% to go to reach all time highs and it's worth noting gold in USD terms was stuck in a range for 6 years. Whether the US is a main driver of the gold market right now is another question.

Edited August 31, 2019 by firestacker

[KDave]

Gold has dam near gone straight up since May without a visible correction, it is extremely overbought.

Given that 2011 was blow off top of the last bull, tell me does this look healthy?;

[Mark10110]

Just now, KDave said:

Gold has dam near gone straight up since May without a visible correction, it is extremely overbought.

Given that 2011 was blow off top of the last bull, tell me does this look healthy?;

thats what has me concerned. 

[KDave]

For all I know the price could keep going straight up forever, do what you think is right.

Personally I think gold might have a bit more in the tank but then will pull back/correct, possibly up to 60% from the high if we based on the last time gold did this kind of price action back in 2011 and I think the risk reward favours waiting rather than trying to capture the last push. But who knows, I certainly didn't expect to see a gold chart like that in 2019. 

[firestacker]

This is just my take but gold broke through £1100 resistance like it was nothing and if you believe in technical analysis the old saying goes: Broken resistance becomes support and broken support becomes resistance. That means the base support should now be £1100 so we will probably see a bounce off this price again as a confirmation in the short term before gold in the US market takes over and targets all time highs pushing the GBP price as high as £1547 before correcting.

[universalcurrency]

As a veteran bullion dealer once said to me gold (spot) price is like inflating a tyre, it goes up and down and then settles for a while.  So if you look at the charts observe the the periods when it settles into a range as an indicator to buy.

This is not an infallible method but it might provide a rough indicator.  In the long run over 5+ years gold is probably the best inflation hedge or to put it another way a preservation of wealth.

[KitboyE17]

Mark, I have a monthly PM allowance - it’s a fixed amount and only varies year on year with a 15% increase. What I do is buy PMs each month up to the allowance level. As the price increases my weight decreases - likewise, when the price decreases my weight increases. This way I get to indulge my spending habit each month. If there is something particular I want one month which means I would have to spend more than my allowance then I have disciplined myself to keep back some of the allowance one month to cover it. 

[Coolsmp]

Ive recently stopped buying silver and moved to gold with an aim of 5oz per year. 

[Mark10110]

Just now, Coolsmp said:

Ive recently stopped buying silver and moved to gold with an aim of 5oz per year. 

Same apart from the weight,

I only managed to get around 310oz of silver and now I move into gold. I will just buy either 2-3 sovs per month or if I have had a good month at work I will just get a 1oz brit.

@Coolsmp if you have a youtube where you show your progress or unboxings let me know. 

[Coolsmp]

Haha no YouTube channel for me i'll leave that to @BackyardBullion

[mdp2505]

Food for thought: https://youtu.be/C4OlAT3jd3k 

[DarkChameleon]

I buy whichever is kn sale that day, might buy junk si.very or gold, might buy coins, not generics but bullion, right now silver has the higher potential for short term, gold sill level off at 1560 to 1575 and could stay there for months, silver is a get rich or get poor quickly scheme...as long as you only using money you didn't need then a rise or drop isn't that big a deal, the general rise or fall matters more.

If you aren't stealing from your pension or your needs money then have at it...finding deals makes for more fun, especially if your wanting to slow down your purchases....or need a change.

[Au79]

13 hours ago, Mark10110 said:

I have been having thoughts that I have struggled with on my next purchase which should be next week, At what price should I stop buying gold/silver? I am not asking you guys to tell me when I should stop but I am curious if you guys have a limit? 

For example my limit I am wiling to keep buying silver is at the £20 mark and with the dreaded B word making silver cost north of £20 with tax I have put the brakes on that

As for Gold... I  don't know. The charts show gold at an all time high and I am having inner battles on if it is viable to buy now.

Some of you guys must be having the same inner conflict?

It is like driving on the road, you won’t want the wheels out of the road boundary, else you will pull the stops. If the direction changes, you would have notice, stop or slow down if you need to. Like any driving destination, if you drive without any clue of direction, you will end up probably lost. So how does one have confidence driving on the road?

[HighlandTiger]

18 hours ago, Mark10110 said:

I have been having thoughts that I have struggled with on my next purchase which should be next week, At what price should I stop buying gold/silver? I am not asking you guys to tell me when I should stop but I am curious if you guys have a limit? 

For example my limit I am wiling to keep buying silver is at the £20 mark and with the dreaded B word making silver cost north of £20 with tax I have put the brakes on that

As for Gold... I  don't know. The charts show gold at an all time high and I am having inner battles on if it is viable to buy now.

Some of you guys must be having the same inner conflict?

I won't stop as such. At my age, I'll probably see no more than one more bear market after this one, (if that is what it is), so even if I continue to buy at the very top, I know that even if the price tumbles I can hold onto the PM's until the next bear market. You younger guys and girls, will have maybe three or four more cycles in your lifetime, so the chances are, if you hold your nerve and can hold off selling until the next cycle, then you will always make a profit. 

The only proviso I give, is that there is a possibility that in the next 40+ years technology may advance to such a level that we are able to mine other celestial bodies, (moons, asteroids etc), and if we find gold, (and it is believed that gold is actually quite common out there in the universe), the price may stagnate. 

[Derv]

I've been having similar thoughts of late about your last paragraph HT. 

Investments in space technology is huge , off world mining will happen ..one day !

[ChrisF]

Quote

The only proviso I give, is that there is a possibility that in the next 40+ years technology may advance to such a level that we are able to mine other celestial bodies, (moons, asteroids etc), and if we find gold, (and it is believed that gold is actually quite common out there in the universe), the price may stagnate. 

If we struggle with demand and or "run low" on gold and the above is the only option the cost of recovering gold would be tremendous.  Gold prices would go balistic.  

[Mark10110]

Just now, ChrisF said:

If we struggle with demand and or "run low" on gold and the above is the only option the cost of recovering gold would be tremendous.  Gold prices would go balistic.  

I doubt it will be viable in my lifetime, I found this on google,

"SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket can put 10,450 kg (23,050 lb) in low Earth orbit for $54 million"

To mine asteroids or other entity's would take multiple trips to set up. 

Edited September 1, 2019 by Mark10110

[Derv]

I agree I can't see it happening in my lifetime.

Though if/when we colonize the moon , mars ect that may reduce overall  costs of mining once bases are set up. 

[Mark10110]

Just now, Derv said:

I agree I can't see it happening in my lifetime.

Though if/when we colonize the moon , mars ect that may reduce overall  costs of mining once bases are set up. 

the minute they start putting people on space bodys to live is when I stop buying gold and start buying stocks in space tech

[Derv]

Just now, Mark10110 said:

the minute they start putting people on space bodys to live is when I stop buying gold and start buying stocks in space tech

Ha good move. I won't be far behind you.