Recession doom loops

[KDave]

Many indicators pointing to our long awaited recession. Perhaps something more. 

[Au79]

It’s a 2 week program on this topic.

[HawkHybrid]

with the increase of divergence across similar markets

they need to focus on what they mean by recession.

two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is not an

accurate picture when the top companies that take

most of the weighting are pulling the averages up.

(and then there's currency printing).

 

in charting terms we should still be years away from

the start  of a many years down trend.

 

HH

[Alex]

The best indicator(I remember very well the days of the great recession back in my country) are the increasing empty shops and letting signs all over the place.It looks like 2008 here in Worthing,West Sussex

[vand]

Ignore what  Carney says, the guy wouldn't know the top of a business cycle from the bottom.

I think its likely that the UK already in recession as business activity will continue to lag up to and possibly past the Brexit deadline. The quarterly GDP numbers will only confirm it 6 months after it starts, and they have a way of revising down prior to retrofit a smoother path to the current quarter's number.

Unemployment is creeping up and people are starting to worry for their jobs. Anecdotally I hear from many people that their companies are cutting headcount and restructuring.

[sixgun]

There is already a recession - in reality there has been one for the last 10 years - the real inflation rate is outstripping GDP growth and has been for yonks.

[KDave]

The comparisons to 1929 are very interesting. 

[Michal]

On 13/08/2019 at 13:39, Alex said:

The best indicator(I remember very well the days of the great recession back in my country) are the increasing empty shops and letting signs all over the place.It looks like 2008 here in Worthing,West Sussex

It looks similar in Dundee.

[KDave]

About ten minutes in, some excellent analysis of what was going on at Jackson hole between the FED, industrialists, national governments on trying to keep the plates spinning;

 

[HighlandTiger]

On 13/08/2019 at 13:39, Alex said:

The best indicator(I remember very well the days of the great recession back in my country) are the increasing empty shops and letting signs all over the place.It looks like 2008 here in Worthing,West Sussex

The empty shops have nothing to with any looming recession, and more to do with a change in retail habits, where people are buying more  and more online. This will only continue to increase as we raise a nation of kids glued to the internet 24/7. 

I can honestly see high street bricks and mortar retail totally disappear within a couple of decades. The only shops that will remain will be out of town superstores and shopping malls. The best thing for high streets is for them to be turned into affordable housing.   

[Alex]

8 hours ago, HighlandTiger said:

The empty shops have nothing to with any looming recession, and more to do with a change in retail habits, where people are buying more  and more online. This will only continue to increase as we raise a nation of kids glued to the internet 24/7. 

I can honestly see high street bricks and mortar retail totally disappear within a couple of decades. The only shops that will remain will be out of town superstores and shopping malls. The best thing for high streets is for them to be turned into affordable housing.   

OK,let's forget about the empty shops but what about the letting/sale house signs popping out like mushrooms after rain and the price dropping?

[KDave]

https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/09/03/US-Dollar-Drops-as-ISM-Manufacturing-Sinks-to-Lowest-Since-January-2016.html

The worst US manufacturing data since Jan 2016.