Gold Monitoring Thread £ GBP only

[AuricGoldfinger]

So the pounds surged today. What do we recon, good buying opportunity till it goes t*ts up again

[Caratacus]

Gold at $1326 looks fairly good; but now at £992, down 40 quid/oz in a week & unless the PM /EU does something daft it looks like it will continue to fall.

The vagaries of currency exchange!!   My poor little Sovereign has lost a bit of her shine....

[Tn21]

It's always going to shine regardless of the price 

Edited February 27, 2019 by Tn21
Spelling

[HawkHybrid]

https://news.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-price-forecast-warning-signal-far-east/1081

 

HH

[KDave]

Chris A is a genius, that is an interesting gold/yen indicator; predicted downside 5 times in a row over past 8 years. Minimum downside $130. 

My thoughts - is it related to the trend. Are we still in a down trend, and either way does the indicator stop working with a trend change or does it overlap. Does it go back further, perhaps back to previous bull. 

Harrington and Byrne indicator, I will be watching them for the next sovereign below spot and taking it as a 100% accurate indication of at least a massive fall in spot. God dam it 

[Caratacus]

41 minutes ago, KDave said:

Chris A is a genius, that is an interesting gold/yen indicator; predicted downside 5 times in a row over past 8 years. Minimum downside $130. 

My thoughts - is it related to the trend. Are we still in a down trend, and either way does the indicator stop working with a trend change or does it overlap. Does it go back further, perhaps back to previous bull.

There are some other general market characteristics which did not exist 8 years ago in combination. US QE occurred and now there is US QT. The EU & Japan are still involved in QE.; and then there is the extra-ordinary US Debt and Global debt. There is buoyancy in the US stocks due to stock buybacks artificially lifting yields as the debt to revenue ratio rises. Sustained low interests as Libor rates rise. Escalating conflict between  India & Pakistan?  There are so many stretched factors.

It will be interesting to see how the combination of economic extremes affects economic predictions

[Bumble]

Well... the various commentators I have checked seem to be equally divided on the recent gold price fall. The Elliott wavers seem to think this is just a leg down that has to happen before the next leg up. Some non-Elliott people also think this is just a correction and the momentum is still upwards. Others are saying we have broken down through the previous rising trend and the price is heading lower; perhaps much lower. For some the seasonal demand in Jan/Feb is now over and we can expect weaker prices until Sept/Oct, which is the other time of the year when gold demand tends to pick up.

[KDave]

Bull/bears are 50/50, early this year too many were bullish. I think the various currency movements have been making charting gold difficult, much revised wave counting going on.

£100 move down is my favoured signal based prediction, think it was a Yen/gold related signal repeating again, 100% historically accurate, unlike hollywood film. Late in the year will be the low if this is right, Sep/Oct sounds good to me. 

I might have to send my harrington and byrne sovereign back.  

Edited March 5, 2019 by KDave

[ChrisSilver]

Will make a new topic tomorrow to discuss price action in $ USD, so we can keep this one £GBP

[Martlet]

6 hours ago, ChrisSIlver said:

Will make a new topic tomorrow to discuss price action in $ USD, so we can keep this one £GBP

Is there value to splitting the conversation?  This one maybe become quite quiet as $ is the primary pricing, while £:AU is a proxy for currency movement. 

[sovereignsteve]

3 hours ago, Martlet said:

Is there value to splitting the conversation?

I don't think so. Mostly the two prices will move together in direction, it's just any currency movement that will be the difference in magnitude.

Any movement worth talking about will occur in both currencies and thus will need posting in both threads🙄

[Caratacus]

Such a quandary. If the "Big B" is resolved.

Like to see the Dollar at 60np again (2015) & the Euro back at 70np (only 4yrs ago!) but its going to knock the value of Au/Ag/Pt really hard!!!   But it will make a great opportunity to buy some interesting coins

Edited March 5, 2019 by Caratacus

[ChrisSilver]

3 hours ago, Martlet said:

Is there value to splitting the conversation?  This one maybe become quite quiet as $ is the primary pricing, while £:AU is a proxy for currency movement. 

There are a lot of UK members who may wish to discuss in £, if the £ becomes quiet can always unpin it but keep a link to it from the USD one so it’s still easy to get to.

The original poster of this topic requested that price discussion was in £, so I think we should respect that.

Also it is confusing discussing price so in 2 different currencies within the same topic, as to get a clear idea of what has happened since a previous post/analysis you may need to convert the currency to see the difference.

11 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

Any movement worth talking about will occur in both currencies and thus will need posting in both threads🙄

You will be able to choose which topic to post in. Feel free to post in 1, or both, or none. I noticed some members continually posting in the same currency, some always in £ and others in $ USD, so there is a reason to have different topics in my opinion. 

So the topics will be split, same as the silver price action thread.

[ChrisSilver]

Please see this topic for discussing in $ USD

[DrKarlMoneys]

This week seems to be crunch time for Brexit.  What do people think the impact will be on the price of PMs? Just today gold is up 1% and the FTSE 100 is down 2%.

At time of posting a 3rd meaningful deal has been postponed until later this week as May still doesn't have support.

Common market 2.0 (Norway plus) looks like a good compromise option Labour MPs may be more inclined to get behind so May wouldn't need to rely on DUP support to get it passed.

If May were to be forced to leave before a deal gets through I expect it'd be very bad for the pound and good for gold.

In the event of a no deal I'd buy as much gold as I can afford, put my head between my legs and kiss my arse goodbye. 😟

 

Is anyone buying gold in preparation for Brexit right now?

[HawkHybrid]

1 hour ago, DrKarlMoneys said:

Is anyone buying gold in preparation for Brexit right now?

 

brexit comes and goes, gold is a longer term investment.

 

HH

[Caratacus]

Whatever the outcome of Brexit, world recession is on its way (it's cyclical) and the EU experiment is going to struggle to survive when so many states owe so much to so many more....

Protect assets, diversify, to ensure money outlives currency

[Martlet]

2 hours ago, DrKarlMoneys said:

This week seems to be crunch time for Brexit.  What do people think the impact will be on the price of PMs? Just today gold is up 1% and the FTSE 100 is down 2%.

At time of posting a 3rd meaningful deal has been postponed until later this week as May still doesn't have support.

Common market 2.0 (Norway plus) looks like a good compromise option Labour MPs may be more inclined to get behind so May wouldn't need to rely on DUP support to get it passed.

If May were to be forced to leave before a deal gets through I expect it'd be very bad for the pound and good for gold.

In the event of a no deal I'd buy as much gold as I can afford, put my head between my legs and kiss my arse goodbye. 😟

 

Is anyone buying gold in preparation for Brexit right now?

UK leaving wont make much difference for the gold price in $.  In £ it will, we're looking at a 5-10% either way, down if we get no deal or up if there is agreement.  All the indicators are we'll fudge together a deal/delay/stay, the probability of no deal is high but less than all others. 

[Tn21]

Price above £1k. Dow dropped 600 points so far. Why the big drop in the Dow and other markets ?

[Cornishfarmer]

1 hour ago, Tn21 said:

Price above £1k. Dow dropped 600 points so far. Why the big drop in the Dow and other markets ?

China announced tariffs on American goods 

[Martysmith]

33 minutes ago, Tn21 said:

Price above £1k. Dow dropped 600 points so far. Why the big drop in the Dow and other markets ?

The China/US trade deal is the biggest contributer. 

[AuricGoldfinger]

Gold price picking up again lately...do we think it will continue?

[HighlandTiger]

16 minutes ago, AuricGoldfinger said:

Gold price picking up again lately...do we think it will continue?

It's looking good for a continued increase. I'm wondering if its picking up because of the US - China trade war. China is talking about taking their rare earth metal ball home, so to speak.  

[HawkHybrid]

imo it's just a weaker £.

at under $1300 it's not quite at the stage of forcing

margin calls on shorts.

 

HH

[AuricGoldfinger]

I’m guessing we will see a year high soon. Although that is a guess. Lol