What is a good price to pay for 1 troy oz of silver

[Guest]

hi guys,

 

I am referring to this historical chart of silver:

https://silverprice.org/silver-price-chart.html

In 1978, the price of silver is USD$4.67. If i just round it down to historical low of USD$4 in 1978, almost 30 years back

Using this inflation calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

the 1978 price of USD$4.00 will mean that in 2019, the equivalent of silver price is $15.60.

Can i say / am i right to say that as long as we buy silver below this spot price of $15.60, it is a good/competitive price?

 

Please let me know what do you think bros

 

[sixgun]

Rounding down $4.67 to $4 is a big round down - this invalidates your calculations. Putting $4.67 into the US inflation calculator gives you $18.01.

That means that even with the corrupted official inflation figures at today's prices, silver has fallen in value over the last 30 years. Some will say that the silver price is manipulated lower - some might say that silver is now being traded as an industrial commodity and ideas of it as money are passé - that as a result the GSR has risen and the price of silver has in relative terms fallen.

When i see interest rate and other financial data come out, the silver price moves significantly more than justified by it being an industrial commodity - so whatever the nay sayers say silver is not a straight forward industrial commodity - it behaves like money. The market is small and easy to 'manage'. i have collected a few ounces of silver - it is a nuisance to store b/c of bulk but it sits there as i wait for the reset in precious metal prices. If you believe the same then accumulate silver at today's prices but don't go mad and buy it in one go.

[Guest]

when i go online to check for the all in sustaning cost of silver (AISC) i get many differing prices ranging from $10 - $15.

Able to point me to the right direction for producing an ounce of silver?

 

[sixgun]

The AISC vary from mine to mine - some a pure silver miners, in some the silver is a byproduct - so you will expect a range There is no one price to produce silver. I think your numbers are about right.

[jacobkenn]

Don't know if its a myth or true but I read somewhere that the calculation to work out inflation has changed at least 2 times since the 80s dont shoot me down I dont know this for a fact cant believe everything on the internet 

[sixgun]

2 minutes ago, jacobkenn said:

Don't know if its a myth or true but I read somewhere that the calculation to work out inflation has changed at least 2 times since the 80s dont shoot me down I dont know this for a fact cant believe everything on the internet 

The RPI is calculated from a basket of goods and services. The government says

Quote

"The 'shopping basket' of items making up the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and Retail Prices Index (RPI) are reviewed every year. Some items are taken out of the basket, some are brought in, to reflect changes in the market and to make sure the CPI and RPI are up to date and representative of consumer spending patterns. "

They keep changing the basket of shopping they say to reflect what people are buying - in reality the basket is adjusted to keep the headline inflation down - there are benefits, salaries, pensions that follow the RPI so to keep government expenditure down items which are running away in price will be dropped and something cheaper will appear.

If people bought steak in 1970 but the price started running away people would buy less and get pork sausages instead. The government statisticians might say we need to drop steak from the basket - people aren't buying it now - we'll put sausages in the basket instead. So the government method is correct but will underestimate inflation. The figures are fiddled by adjusting the contents with seemingly plausible reasoning.  In a recent posting i said shopping basket inflation is at least 5% - A member said he did some research on prices since 2014 and inflation is 5%. i will say there are other factors where the authorities jack up prices, fines, licences... i will say inflation in the real world is nearer 10%. Then we have shrinkflation - the packet stays the same price but there is less and less in it.

[dunmac]

I once started an experiment in which I kept a receipt for a shopping market trip with a large number of items I buy regularly, with the intention of revisiting it a year later to see how much the price of those same items had risen by. Unfortunately, a year later I'd lost the receipt. Anyway, the point was, regardless of what the government says the inflation rate is, that has little bearing on what each of our personal inflation rates are, as we all buy different things. I might start that experiment up again soon, to see what happens.

[HawkHybrid]

exit strategy.

calculate a buy price based on what you are

likely to be able to sell it for.

fundamental analysis is for those who can't

sell their silver at the current market price and

need to justify fundamental value in order to

sell their silver. ie it's for those who failed to

deliver a working exit strategy.

low prices can go lower, high prices can go

higher.

silver happens to be at the lower end of the price

range right now but that is not an excuse for not

working on a high probability of profit strategy.

work on: if I buy now, when can I turn a profit at

market prices using realistic data?

 

HH

[STONE]

Anything under $20 an ounce is a steal. Back up the truck at $15.....

[DarkChameleon]

29 minutes ago, STONE said:

Anything under $20 an ounce is a steal. Back up the truck at $15.....

I wouldn't say $20 is a steal,the lcs offer ase at 2.75 over and generics at 1.00 over so $16 for generics and under $18 for ase's is the normal without shipping...fleabay makes the deals all to hell as sellers need to cover then fleabay cut.

[Michal]

13 hours ago, sixgun said:

... A member said he did some research on prices since 2014 and inflation is 5%. ...

It was me who said that and i based it on receipts which i found online in receipt picture stock. But i done calculations based on my memory yesterday and:

tesco white beread in 2012 15p in 2019 55p that gives 24% per year, cooking beckon in 2012 17p in 2019 67p it gives 26% per year.  You may ask why only those cheep bad? coz I remember those prices exactly at 2012 and cheapest price item is harder to push down in price, they didnt downsize them either. Here is  interesting chart for US :

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts  

[Stu]

£4.56

[sixgun]

1 hour ago, Michal said:

It was me who said that and i based it on receipts which i found online in receipt picture stock. But i done calculations based on my memory yesterday and:

tesco white beread in 2012 15p in 2019 55p that gives 24% per year, cooking beckon in 2012 17p in 2019 67p it gives 26% per year.  You may ask why only those cheep bad? coz I remember those prices exactly at 2012 and cheapest price item is harder to push down in price, they didnt downsize them either. Here is  interesting chart for US :

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts  

That is good information - to counter this i would say Tescos and other supermarkets do loss leaders on basic items to draw people in - you can get some very low prices - i remember when Lidl or Aldi - the tins of beans were 1p when they opened. Food inflation hasn't been 25% a year but it is much higher than the tiny rates claimed. i have heard John Williams of shadowstats point out inflation is several times higher than claimed.

[Michal]

It is marketing strategy called "sweet loosers", you lose on them but gain much more on other things, people are buying everything in one place usually. So what is food inflation by yours observation? I am wondering why silver doesn't keep up with fake inflation even.