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@vand we have inverted yield curve USA, global slowdown, massive increase debt at all levels government/corporate/consumer and we are trying to find a portfolio that provides asset growth/protection we must bear in mind that what has worked in the past may not work in the future. I don't know what the optimum portfolio would suit the current interconnected global economy. I have the ability to switch between between equity mutual funds and government bonds very quickly within my portfolio if/when the need arises. My strategy switch equity mutual funds to government bonds in the next global recession interest rates should be slashed close to 0% and use equity rental properties (mortgage/debt free) as collateral to increase rental portfolio. Classic saying buy when there's blood in the streets. Timing is the key and nobody knows when to pull the trigger and execute the plan.

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16 minutes ago, Abyss said:

@vand we have inverted yield curve USA, global slowdown, massive increase debt at all levels government/corporate/consumer and we are trying to find a portfolio that provides asset growth/protection we must bear in mind that what has worked in the past may not work in the future. I don't know what the optimum portfolio would suit the current interconnected global economy. I have the ability to switch between between equity mutual funds and government bonds very quickly within my portfolio if/when the need arises. My strategy switch equity mutual funds to government bonds in the next global recession interest rates should be slashed close to 0% and use equity rental properties (mortgage/debt free) as collateral to increase rental portfolio. Classic saying buy when there's blood in the streets. Timing is the key and nobody knows when to pull the trigger and execute the plan.

 

The point of a diversified strategy is that they will have some components that work in all economic conditions; growth/recession and inflation/deflation. Whichever combination of these inputs causes one asset to tank will cause another to rocket.

Trying to accurately assess the prevailing macro economic conditions, and then trying to guess what the market's reaction to it and position yourself accordingly seems a far harder game. Yes, there is a timing component if you are an active investor, but all-weather strategies have a component of this with rebalancing.

 

Edited by vand

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Thanks @vand the diversified strategy goal work in all economic times and keep investor emotions out of the equation. There is only one caveat largest economy in the world USA defaulting or resuming QE meet its current obligation/interest payments but because the strategy has 25% gold should protect the investor. During the next global recession should create deflation because the stock/property market crash and I am guessing that Gold will initially reduce in price as well which may prove to be the best opportunity to buy gold. I understand the goals/merits Permanent Portfolio but sometimes the spectator in me wants to take on risk.

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A article from a fairly mainstream outlet also advocating for a diversified multi-asset portfolio:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-investing-strategy-gives-you-a-little-less-return-but-a-lot-less-risk-2019-04-03?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

""Most idiots have an 80/20 portfolio (80% stocks/20% bonds) or a 90/10 portfolio or even a portfolio that is 100% stocks."

 

"How about a 35/55/3/3/4 portfolio? That’s 35% stocks, 55% bonds, 3% broad commodities, 3% gold, and 4% REITs. If you think about what this is, it’s a stock/bond portfolio with a really good inflation hedge.

Want to know the risk/return of that portfolio? It gives you almost the return of the 80/20 portfolio with half the risk."

Edited by vand

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