Silver Monitoring Thread $ (USD) only

[MikeInTexas]

On August 29, 2019 at 14:23, SmoggyPluto said:

As a newb in the stacking world I am deeply conflicted with the price fluctuations. On one hand I am excited to see spot prices rise so I can make a profit. On the other hand I just started stacking and want to buy so much more. I understand many stackers have purchased at a much higher spot and premium. $20 including premiums was my target cut off so I can use those funds for other investments. The conflict is real! 

There are a few of us here who have been "stacking" over a long period of time. Some of my stuff, I bought in the 1980's and 1990's when silver was $6.00 to $9.00 per ounce. And even these past few years, with the ups and downs, I paid as high as $22.00 per ounce including premiums. A Dollar Cost Averaging strategy. I have sold very little, and today, the stack gets bigger. I am not stacking silver as an investment. I am stacking to preserve my wealth, against a changing economy. Look into what the price of gold and silver have done in Argentina, as their currency has crumbled because of bad inflation. Look at Venezuela, their currency is garbage. Their Government hates the idea that the citizens are using American dollars in what the govt says is 'black market' trading, but all it really is, is people trying to buy food and necessities. There are even a few old silver coins being used. And we have all seen these past few months.. silver at $14.50, and YES...I did buy at that level.. and even this past Friday, I bought 2019 American Silver Eagles 1oz at $21.50 each. I bought nearly all the 2019's the dealer had in stock, as he was waiting on big boxes to arrive for his customers. When the spot BID/ASK prices in New York City, London, Hong Kong and Australia get above $25.00 United States Dollars (USD) per ounce, I will just set aside some mad cash, should the spot prices drop suddenly. Which is like going shopping, and everything is ON SALE! If the metals do sky rocket, don't panic, wait and see, because you had already been stacking, which is more than the rest of Americans are doing. Some people buy brand new cars and trucks, waisting their capital, and others are stacking gold and silver, preserving their buying power. Something I keep in my mind is, if I had bought a 10 oz bar of silver at say $9.00 per ounce with a premium of $1.50 per ounce over the spot price, and silver later moves to say $18.50 per ounce, and I sell that 10 oz bar for $185.00... now what do I do? Put the cash in a bank, where it does not do anything? Look at history, back in 1979, inflation was at near 18%, home loans were at 12% to 16%, and silver and gold went way up! It was because the dollar was losing its buying power. SmoggyPluto, you are off to a good start! Keep stack'in!

[DarkChameleon]

Compared to previous highs in silver this 18.50 is nothing, its jumping so quick because the market knows it too...so e presume is there to keep it down, market manipulation is rife as we can see often just looking at the live trading charts...China doesn't want to pay $40 and neither does Russia, no buyer does, so they phantom trade or sell in one lump sum to drive the price down then buy back in smaller amounts to get that lump sum back over time, which longer time in trading circles can be an hour compared to selling in a millisecond, add that to phantom trades where they promos to sell then cancel it before it goes through and your massaging the figures, it's illegal here but who is going to prosecute a company in China and Russia who don't give a hoot?.

[MikeInTexas]

Exactly. I will continue to buy, but as we get closer to $22.00 USD per troy ounce, I will be taking a very close look, see what happens over a few days or weeks. At $25.00, I will likely be stacking cash, see if a dip takes place, then try to buy into weakness.

[SmoggyPluto]

16 hours ago, MikeInTexas said:

There are a few of us here who have been "stacking" over a long period of time. Some of my stuff, I bought in the 1980's and 1990's when silver was $6.00 to $9.00 per ounce. And even these past few years, with the ups and downs, I paid as high as $22.00 per ounce including premiums. A Dollar Cost Averaging strategy. I have sold very little, and today, the stack gets bigger. I am not stacking silver as an investment. I am stacking to preserve my wealth, against a changing economy. Look into what the price of gold and silver have done in Argentina, as their currency has crumbled because of bad inflation. Look at Venezuela, their currency is garbage. Their Government hates the idea that the citizens are using American dollars in what the govt says is 'black market' trading, but all it really is, is people trying to buy food and necessities. There are even a few old silver coins being used. And we have all seen these past few months.. silver at $14.50, and YES...I did buy at that level.. and even this past Friday, I bought 2019 American Silver Eagles 1oz at $21.50 each. I bought nearly all the 2019's the dealer had in stock, as he was waiting on big boxes to arrive for his customers. When the spot BID/ASK prices in New York City, London, Hong Kong and Australia get above $25.00 United States Dollars (USD) per ounce, I will just set aside some mad cash, should the spot prices drop suddenly. Which is like going shopping, and everything is ON SALE! If the metals do sky rocket, don't panic, wait and see, because you had already been stacking, which is more than the rest of Americans are doing. Some people buy brand new cars and trucks, waisting their capital, and others are stacking gold and silver, preserving their buying power. Something I keep in my mind is, if I had bought a 10 oz bar of silver at say $9.00 per ounce with a premium of $1.50 per ounce over the spot price, and silver later moves to say $18.50 per ounce, and I sell that 10 oz bar for $185.00... now what do I do? Put the cash in a bank, where it does not do anything? Look at history, back in 1979, inflation was at near 18%, home loans were at 12% to 16%, and silver and gold went way up! It was because the dollar was losing its buying power. SmoggyPluto, you are off to a good start! Keep stack'in!

Hey thanks for the reply! This information is very valuable to me and its much appreciated. I will keep stacking for sure. I do like the idea of just stacking some cash and waiting for a price drop or a great sale. The information I have been given has helped me tremendously. If you look at my current stack you can see how the education I've been receiving from members like you and others has helped educate and point me in the right direction. It was rather overwhelming at first. Tons if information, dealers and shady people peddling fake PMs. Thanks again!

[verorl]

It's at $19.20 now!!! I have a cart full at APMEX, waiting on some money that should drop into my account later today to pay for it... I'm having second thoughts, but then I have bought silver at over $20 spot in the past.

Yikes.

[MikeInTexas]

17 minutes ago, verorl said:

It's at $19.20 now!!! I have a cart full at APMEX, waiting on some money that should drop into my account later today to pay for it... I'm having second thoughts, but then I have bought silver at over $20 spot in the past.

Yikes.

Yep! I am on Kitco website, monitoring the spot silver market. And yes, I have bought AG at over $22.00 USD, and will continue to do so until it gets near $25.00 USD per ounce. We've all watched the ups and downs, and right now, I feel Silver is still cheap at current price. Greetings to everyone on The Silver Forum from my location near Houston, Texas!

[MetalMandible]

On 28/08/2019 at 19:42, MetalMandible said:

83:1

80:1

[h103efa]

A weekly reversal bar - Pinocchio or pin bar!

If this bar breaks down (<17.95) i will make a SELL silver spreadbet (order already in place). i expect price to get down to fill the gap at around 17.40 area. This would be my first take profit area. After that price may get to 16.20/.40 which is a former resistance, now support area (with 150 EMA / 61.8 fibo confluence). I'd probably close my trade here and look for signal to buy and continue the upward trend.

[pneustack]

I dig the charts and agree.  there is a cluster of support/fibonaccis around 17.65 - 17.50 and then the prior consolidation level and simple 3 month moving average resides around 16.35 (which is where I would personally back the truck up).  Additional support might be in the $17 range for psychological reasons/round number, as well as being 50% retracement of late May 2019 low to early Sept 2019 high.   

Truth be told, as long as SI is sitting in the 80-1 range to GC, I B stackin. 😎 

[Gildeon]

What happened on Friday and caused this sudden drop...? 🙄

[h103efa]

No idea on drop really as dont always keep up with the fundamentals. Bu the charts did show a possibility.

My first target for profit taking (based on the weekly charts) reached!

[gpframe]

Based on a) lack of any “news” that would have caused a market drop and b) timing (Friday near the end of a fiscal quarter) I think the drop was caused by institutional investors locking in profits.  Works great for me as I buy a set amount each month, always looking to buy on the dip and this gives me all weekend to make my selection.

[pneustack]

looks like another leg down possible today.  DEC futures at 17.85 currently.

[MikeInTexas]

On September 26, 2019 at 07:21, pneustack said:

looks like another leg down possible today.  DEC futures at 17.85 currently.

Yep, this morning also. As long as spot is below $20.00, I continue to buy and stack. Been sitting or cash for opportunity like this. As I type this, spot is at $17.32 USD.

[pneustack]

it's an interesting dynamic...  on the one hand i want price to go up.  on the other hand i want it to go down so I can stack more/cheaper.  😎

Ultimately though my strategy is largely driven by GSR, which currently >80 is well within my comfort zone.  at 16.35 or below however, i'm more or less agnostic to the ratio.

 

BTW, I think I saw you were in the Houston area in another post.  hopefully you averted the brunt of Tropical Storm Imelda last week.

[MikeInTexas]

On September 27, 2019 at 12:04, pneustack said:

it's an interesting dynamic...  on the one hand i want price to go up.  on the other hand i want it to go down so I can stack more/cheaper.  😎

Ultimately though my strategy is largely driven by GSR, which currently >80 is well within my comfort zone.  at 16.35 or below however, i'm more or less agnostic to the ratio.

 

BTW, I think I saw you were in the Houston area in another post.  hopefully you averted the brunt of Tropical Storm Imelda last week.

From Tropical storm Imelda, I recorded over 11 inches of rain. Eleven years ago, I had 45+ inches of rain from Hurricane Harvey. I am on high ground here. Got to keep my stack dry!

Edited September 29, 2019 by MikeInTexas
Correct misspelling

[vand]

Ouchie.

Correction continues.

I fear this is heading back down another dollar or 2.

[pneustack]

16.80-17.00 would be the next likely support level, then the 16.35 range is in play after that.   Looking at a chart of the USD, it appears to have some room to run still.

[sixgun]

33 minutes ago, vand said:

Ouchie.

Correction continues.

I fear this is heading back down another dollar or 2.

It was options expiry day today - the price was dumped on to suit the options of the BIS et al.

[Silverclown]

Could the silver market reflecting the bitcoin halving? A lot people probably believe that they can quadruple their invest plus more with the halving. 

Good for us could even mean £10 pound oz;)

[pneustack]

There are likely many factors.  I'd start with the Dollar index first, because it is the highest since May 2017.  Metals arent always inversely correlated to USD obviously, but at the moment the relationship appears to exist.  Secondly my mind goes to the recent liquidity crunch for big banks and the overnight desk/repo market... I think its absolutely a possibility that funds and banks are liquidating some metal and bitcoin holdings to cover other positions.  Then you have the end of the quarter and a lot of rebalancing going on, which given the recent run of metals would suggest a lot of funds need to shed that gain and rebalance into underperformers.   Next you have China's "Golden Week," there is a good writeup on Zero Hedge about this today.   Trade War is quiet, War with Iran is quiet, Trump impeachment is quiet- ie a lot of geopolitical risk has been tabled or at least isnt front page news.  Plus manipulation.  🙄  The point is there's likely a confluence of factors, many we can speculate on, but the best "known" which exists at the moment is that we get to continue stacking for cheaper.   Also, fwiw, I think the Jan 2020 monthly SO/Silver contract options for COMEX expired on 9/26.  Cheers!

[Silverclown]

11 minutes ago, pneustack said:

There are likely many factors.  I'd start with the Dollar index first, because it is the highest since May 2017.  Metals arent always inversely correlated to USD obviously, but at the moment the relationship appears to exist.  Secondly my mind goes to the recent liquidity crunch for big banks and the overnight desk/repo market... I think its absolutely a possibility that funds and banks are liquidating some metal and bitcoin holdings to cover other positions.  Then you have the end of the quarter and a lot of rebalancing going on, which given the recent run of metals would suggest a lot of funds need to shed that gain and rebalance into underperformers.   Next you have China's "Golden Week," there is a good writeup on Zero Hedge about this today.   Trade War is quiet, War with Iran is quiet, Trump impeachment is quiet- ie a lot of geopolitical risk has been tabled or at least isnt front page news.  Plus manipulation.  🙄  The point is there's likely a confluence of factors, many we can speculate on, but the best "known" which exists at the moment is that we get to continue stacking for cheaper.   Also, fwiw, I think the Jan 2020 monthly SO/Silver contract options for COMEX expired on 9/26.  Cheers!

Could you expand on COMEX Expired on 9/26?

[vand]

I'm not a great believer in options expiry dates causing significant price moves. It's too convenient a "blame someone else" card that can be used on 5% of total trading days.

 

I prefer to put it down to simply a necessary intermediate term cyclical correction. Need to flush out the weak money and price and moving averages need to converge before we are ready to go back up in a meaningful way.

Edited September 30, 2019 by vand

[pneustack]

4 hours ago, Silverclown said:

Could you expand on COMEX Expired on 9/26?

 

[MikeInTexas]

9 hours ago, vand said:

Ouchie.

Correction continues.

I fear this is heading back down another dollar or 2.

Agree. Was kinda expecting this to happen, but did not think drop would happen this soon.