Silver price about to plummet

[KDave]

4 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Care to elaborate on that? 😀 

It means you are in competition with sixgun for digging a hole so deep you will soon both find yourselves in Australia. Also possibly a reference to be so wildly off topic as to be contextually on the opposite side of the world. Was this thread not about silver when you started it? 

[999magnum]

6 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Care to elaborate on that? 😀 

Are you a flat earther? If so this will not make sense to you.

[sixgun]

5 minutes ago, 999magnum said:

Are you a flat earther? If so this will not make sense to you.

He could be digging a tunnel to Australia. He's digging out from Prison Planet escaping from Alex Jones.

[Wonger]

Back to the topic, why would 78000 commercial net silver shorts not result in a larger silver price drop than 67000 commercial net silver shorts? Feel free to reply first sixgun. 

[sixgun]

i have posted previously but here again is the latest COT report for silver. Now as i recall you are predicting a crash in the silver price - " a drop to the low $13.00 range, " A level price hasn't been to since 2009.

i have said the chart in gold has formed a cup - we are all but there and so i would be expecting the handle - so i am expecting a fall in price - i have said a fall to $1300. This would make the handle 1/3rd of the full height of the cup. Then i expect price to bounce at the $1300 level - a big round number - psychologically important and a position on the chart of previous resistance i will say will turn into support.

Your prediction seems excessive - to imagine price to go down to 2009 levels seems far fetched. Price has been rising since the middle of last August - so i would expect Swap Dealers to have built up a net short position. Producer Merchants are permanently short, they are hedging physical positions and so their position doesn't accurately reflect the net speculative (naked) short position. i have never heard it suggested a market move can be accurately or even approximately measured using the COT report. Time will tell or rather price will tell.

 

[Wonger]

The higher the net speculative long positioning, the higher the value to be unwound, silver has extreme futures positioning, why would that not lead to extreme price movement to the downside? My case is that the commercial banks are even shorter than 05/06/2018 and look what happened immediately to the Silver price back then, this time it will be an even larger drop. 

[Wonger]

Someone is very offside in their positioning and Im betting its not JPM, its the Hedge Funds and JPM is about to clean their clock again.

[sixgun]

i do not dispute price in gold is likely to pullback and so silver will follow. The issue is you predict silver will fall to 2009 levels.

If you have data showing a quantitative correlation in Swap Dealer short position and amount of price movement for more than one year then your prediction holds more water but you have used the free chart on cotpricecharts.com and this only gives a year. You are basing your prediction off one price cycle.

[Wonger]

Why would this price cycle be any different from June? Are you saying that the Hedge Funds have been selling the futures to the commercial banks and now the commercial banks are extremely long and about to be taken to the cleaners by the Hedge Funds? 😀 

[sixgun]

As i say you are basing your prediction on one year's chart - on one cycle. You are predicting the amount of movement on the basis of one event. This isn't good science.

[sixgun]

The chart looks like it did around the beginning of 2016. We have a cup in gold for sure - i expect the handle in gold and then take off. Gold takes off and silver follows.

Here is the chart - we appear to be at the same stage of play as we were where the blue arrow is (16th March 2016). Then look at the COT report from the same time. There was a pull back and then price took off. Do you still think price is going to fall to levels we last saw in 2009?

[Wonger]

My prediction of a sell off to the low $13.00 area is only $0.50-80 below the recent November 2018 low, its not as if it would unwind a huge bull market since 2009 and I do not see 78000 commercial net shorts being unwound with just a $.90 price drop, it did not happen in June, it took over $3.00 to clear far less and technically all Silver has done is rallied back up to the breakdown level in June and now its rolling over and will go all the way back down again and make fresh lows below November, we will have to wait and see.

[vand]

TBH I think the odds favour a pullback quite soon

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2019/02/warning-signs-in-the-metals-sector.html

 

[Wonger]

3 minutes ago, vand said:

TBH I think the odds favour a pullback quite soon

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2019/02/warning-signs-in-the-metals-sector.html

 

Do you mean the pull back that started on the 20th 7 days ago?

[vand]

10 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Do you mean the pull back that started on the 20th 7 days ago?

Yes, I mean the one that started on 20th February at 2:38.4965783pm EST 

[Wonger]

On 25/02/2019 at 09:58, vand said:

We had this discussion last year. Nothing has changed. 

If you try to isolate yourself from every wiggle and selloff in the the spot price then you shouldn't be invested in it in the first place.

IMO there's just as likely to be an 10% upside squeeze that'll rip the face off the shorts than a 10% selloff in the short term. 

Changed your mind then I see after insulting me!😀 

[vand]

27 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Changed your mind then I see after insulting me!😀 

Not really.. Nothing goes up or down in a straight line.

My long term view is still that we are heading much higher, but I don't expect to second guess every squiggle as we get there.

Pullbacks are to be viewed as buying opportunities in bull markets. Rallies are to be viewed as selling opportunities in bear markets. What you are doing is using rallies in a bull market as selling opportunities. The upside to this strategy is limited.

[Wonger]

Vand Im a trader of 20+ years, why do you feel the need to explain to me what my strategy actually is? all you know is that Im now short Silver and long GBP!

Also that I joined and created a thread with information of how easy and cheap it was to hedge downside risk for those that may be interested as I thought a sell of is coming in PM's and that is exactly what happened all the way down into November lows!😀

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Vand Im a trader of 20+ years, why do you feel the need to explain to me what my strategy actually is? all you know is that Im now short Silver and long GBP! 😀

What have you been trading? Marbles? Insecurity? Intelligence swaps for Ego Botox?

[vand]

23 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Vand Im a trader of 20+ years, why do you feel the need to explain to me what my strategy actually is? all you know is that Im now short Silver and long GBP!

Also that I joined and created a thread with information of how easy and cheap it was to hedge downside risk for those that may be interested as I thought a sell of is coming in PM's and that is exactly what happened all the way down into November lows!😀

Well that's the point, most of us on here are NOT traders. We don't try to iron out every wiggle. Your strategy is right for you, it's not right for the rest of us!

[Wonger]

7 minutes ago, RichRock said:

What have you been trading? Marbles? Insecurity? Intelligence swaps for Ego Botox?

More insults, stack underwater is it?

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Wonger said:

More insults, stack underwater is it?

Certainly is, about 120ft, had a recent boating accident.

[Wonger]

1 minute ago, RichRock said:

Certainly is, about 120ft, had a recent boating accident.

Sure makes good ballast in the keel of a yacht.

[Guest]

20 minutes ago, Wonger said:

Sure makes good ballast in the keel of a yacht.

Too obvious on a modern fin keeler, but glassed internally into a long keeler/cut forefoot encapsulated keel with internal keel tanks etc seems to do the trick and much easier (if you actually like to keep the yacht above water), so a friend says. 

GBP/USD @ upper level of the 1.33 N/L on the inv H&S breach we talked about yesterday, currently @ 1.3296. Expiries tomorrow, could be interesting 24hrs

[Wonger]

5 minutes ago, RichRock said:

Too obvious on a modern fin keeler, but glassed into a long keeler/cut forefoot encapsulated keel with internal keel tanks etc seems to do the trick and much easier, so a friend says. 

GBP/USD @ upper level of the 1.33 N/L on the inv H&S breach we talked about yesterday, currently @ 1.3296. Expiries tomorrow, could be interesting 24hrs

Yep, ive actually just closed the GBP long and swung short at 1.3310 for a while.