Silver price about to plummet

[flim]

 

 

when you use CFD or futures to hedge the fall in Silver price

then what effectively you are doing is like having a pause in your diversified investments

eg bonds stocks precious metals etc all longs

when doing a short in any of them, the impact would paused that diversification 

all in the world of fiat

but there is another side, a world of real goods and stuff

 

[Wonger]

August 24th 2015, large ETF funds lost over 50% of their value in seconds.

[Wonger]

 

[Wonger]

https://www.financemagnates.com/forex/brokers/fxcm-publishes-data-of-snb-mishandling-of-the-swiss-franc/

Dramatically Low Pricing – External ECN prices went as low as 0.2000 

It could never happen to the Gold and Silver ETF's and ETN's as the Central Banks said they were buying, just like SNB said they were holding the 1.20 peg hours before this happened!

[sixgun]

4 hours ago, Gildeon said:

I know that but why would they need European Central Bank permission, since they haven't adopted the Euro? Therefore they still have their currency and their central banks are independent. Something similar to UK until now. At least this is my impression.

Quote

Romania would need the approval of the European Central Bank (ECB) for repatrating the gold, Florin Citu, member of parliament from opposition National Liberal Party said in an interview with local TV station Realitatea. - See more at: https://seenews.com/news/romanias-ruling-party-drafts-law-to-repatriate-c-banks-gold-reserves-644682#sthash.Ld3XTJV8.dpuf

i reported what i read - as i say this is another nail in the EU coffin as people realise what a monster they have shackled themselves to.

[sixgun]

@Wonger i recall i was up doing something at 3am my time and had the chart open when the silver paper price got crashed in July 2017. It was a deliberate dump like we have seen before but it was more extreme - it was almost comical.

Members here would have been asleep and might not even have noticed or known about this. Flash crashes happen in fictional markets. You are claiming the silver price will fall from $7 USD to $4 USD perhaps in a flash crash. It is all well and good saying something can happen. We could be hit by a comet and all life could be destroyed. Comets happen. Just because something could happen does not mean it will or is even a remote possibility. However you are making out it will happen. So again i challenge you to a bet - £100 that silver will not got to $7 in the next 12 months - the money to be held by a neutral third party (such as Chris Silver or BYB) who would pay out on 1st March 2020.

I will take failure to respond to this by midnight 04.03.2019 GMT as a rejection of the offer of a bet - and the members here can then decide what they will from that.

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, sixgun said:

@Wonger i recall i was up doing something at 3am my time and had the chart open when the silver paper price got crashed in July 2017. It was a deliberate dump like we have seen before but it was more extreme - it was almost comical.

Members here would have been asleep and might not even have noticed or known about this. Flash crashes happen in fictional markets. You are claiming the silver price will fall from $7 USD to $4 USD perhaps in a flash crash. It is all well and good saying something can happen. We could be hit by a comet and all life could be destroyed. Comets happen. Just because something could happen does not mean it will or is even a remote possibility. However you are making out it will happen. So again i challenge you to a bet - £100 that silver will not got to $7 in the next 12 months - the money to be held by a neutral third party (such as Chris Silver or BYB) who would pay out on 1st March 2020.

I will take failure to respond to this by midnight 04.03.2019 GMT as a rejection of the offer of a bet - and the members here can then decide what they will from that.

I'd like to create a derivatives market on that, I'll bet that sixgun's bet is right.

Silver Forum Silver Derivatives (SFSD) anyone? :) 

[sovereignsteve]

25 minutes ago, RichRock said:

I'd like to create a derivatives market on that, I'll bet that sixgun's bet is right.

Silver Forum Silver Derivatives (SFSD) anyone?

How many layers of derivatives can we make out of this?

it could bring down the financial markets!

[Au79]

One possible outcome for near term silver prices, should the mid 2016 descending triangle breakdown occur. Price target is 11.5 (27.5-19.5=8), (19.5-8=11.5). Should the descending triangle breakout occur. Price target is under 30 (21.4+8=29.4). Price action could sideways longer and deem this possibility less probable  Beyond these price ranges, I don’t have a clue until we get there.

[Fastnick]

1 hour ago, sixgun said:

I will take failure to respond to this by midnight 04.03.2019 GMT as a rejection of the offer of a bet - and the members here can then decide what they will from that.

I've been following this thread for sometime now, and whilst I won't pretend for one moment that I am savvy enough to fully understand all the finer points of the market and the other financial aspects of what is being discussed, I do admire anyone who has genuinely got "the testicular capacity" to put their money where their mouth is.....

[HawkHybrid]

7 hours ago, flim said:

when you use CFD or futures to hedge the fall in Silver price

then what effectively you are doing is like having a pause in your diversified investments

 

this is why I suggested not to hedge your physical silver.

if you hedge your physical silver in full there are 3

possible outcomes(as always):

1. price moves up

2. no change in price

3. price moves down.

realistically you are betting against the price moving up.

what happens if the price has moved up? you make

little to no money. but are now pricing your physical

silver at the higher price. ideally you need the price to

move down for the hedge to pay off. it's effectively the

same as a calculated short, just more complicated.

if you had recommended to hedge during a massive

rise like in 2011..., but hedging the recent $2 move off

of a multi year low level is not the same.

hedging is locking in profits at the current price. it's

not a free lunch. who has physical silver bullion

profits at $16/oz?

 

HH

[Bullionbilly]

Id have thought people would be selling up and the sales threads alive if people thought it was going to drop like a rock ?

[sixgun]

@HawkHybrid i agree completely. These are some of the points i have made in the thread but was accused of being out of my league.

1 A full SI futures contract is 5000oz - so too big to hedge for most stackers on this forum - so they are not hedging as they are increasing their exposure and risk.

2 The short futures contract was originally designed for the likes of farmers who would forward sell their crop. They guaranteed a sale price, making planning surer but at the same time had to forgo a bigger profit by locking it their price. This is true hedging. They reduce the risk of financial loss. What is described in this thread is actually speculation b/c the physical silver isn't for sale and certainly would not be for stackers here for all the reasons (numismatic) you have eluded to.

3 The 2% interest on the short is all but irrelevant.

4 Buy a PUT option does reduce financial risk - this is what options are bought for. There is no upside risk other than your option expires worthless. Downside risk is where your major paper loss would occur on the physical stack and this is covered by the PUT. The long PUT option is defined risk - the short futures contract is undefined risk when you stack is not actually for sale.

As you say, none of this is relevant to members and there is no such thing as a free lunch. To recommend short futures to everyone with a silver physical holding as was done in the opening post is misleading and wrong.

[Wonger]

4 hours ago, sovereignsteve said:

How many layers of derivatives can we make out of this?

it could bring down the financial markets!

Not if you package them up into tranches sell them and do not let on until you have cashed out and gone short. 😀

[Guest]

4 hours ago, Wonger said:

Not if you package them up into tranches sell them and do not let on until you have cashed out and gone short. 😀

@Wonger 

You seem to be avoiding the question. Are you going to take the bet Sixgun called you out on above? Or has the smell of White Hall paint overcome you?

Looking forward to your best excuse, or does your government expenses account not allow for a temporary civilian expenses account? I knew the Gov. was skint, but £100 for f*cks sake??

As for your Tranches, I would call your bet selection target of $4 Silver...”Cat sh*t Wrapped in Dog sh*t” and give it a “BBB” rating. (Mark Baum, The Big Short)

Please forget posting your sh*t Utube vids, we’ve seen them before, if you WERE a trader you would not even post these. We’ve seen them, analysed them, forgotten them...years ago, and you spout them as if they are real up to date news.

Forex traders were warned (on Thompson Reuters etc.) to jump out BEFORE your CHF crash happened, just like the JPY etc. I jumped, you however are looking at history and formulating a story.

I thought you would take the bet with SixGun, maybe I will be proved wrong, but I suspect not.

In fact, I’m calling you out. If you are a fellow trader, play the game and put your money forth. But alas, I fear there will be no bet, you won't do it, but formulate some crappy excuse..

PS Expecting reply "You are insulting me lol"

[flim]

Contract Size

US$50 x Silver USD50 CFD Price x Quantity

there is CFD on silver contract, margin 20% so on, there are many types out there.

 

selling below $20 would not make so much sense when volume or quantity is small.., which only can mean =>

expanding the leverage level to 100 X or more, so that a small drop would generate small fortune

who would want to hedge 20k for the difference of 2k ??? ie 10% plunge in silver price, this would magnify the gain by leverage up 10x or more....the gain would be 20k

this is no longer hedging, as hedging is trying to lock in the price to the differences only

 

abt the put option writer, one got caught and forced to deliver silver, and 129 million ounces 

when spot was $8.50 and the option was exercised around $12 strike 

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2006/05/06/warren-buffett-sells-family-silver

 

[ilovesilverireallydo]

You lot going over way too technical. 

Lets look at the basic reasons why stackers stack - any stacker who sees their silver as "investment" is not considering the opportunity cost of investing that money in actual yielding assets. I am taking the numismatic argument out of the mix because then you arent stacking you are speculating. 

The real reason to stack - is

• to offset inflationary concerns*
• to hold "real" money as part of your mix*
• decent liquidity assets (can sell relatively easily)*
• as a savings mechanism for those of us who are shite at saving, but not looking to invest*
• because we like shiny shite.*

To me the whole concept of hedging your stack is absurd because that means we are moving away from the reasons why we stack and move into a more commercial activity. If I wanted to hedge my stack, I wouldnt do it against paper contracts on metal - I would most likely target higher yield stocks. 

* this is why I stack any way

[Wonger]

With the Silver market client positioning entering this week at the same or even flirting with higher levels it seems a repeat of last weeks selling would be in line with expectations here.  

[sovereignsteve]

10 hours ago, RichRock said:

In fact, I’m calling you out. If you are a fellow trader, play the game and put your money forth

This.

If @Wonger is the big bad trader he/she says he is, what's £100? It's easily accounted for in on of his trades or hedges, and is nothing to show us you know what you are talking about. After all, you started all this😉

[Wonger]

44 minutes ago, sovereignsteve said:

This.

If @Wonger is the big bad trader he/she says he is, what's £100? It's easily accounted for in on of his trades or hedges, and is nothing to show us you know what you are talking about. After all, you started all this😉

I would advise and expect anyone reading this thread to not make any investment decisions on the basis that I refuse to accept an absurd offer of a £100 bet with someone whom either has an extremely bad memory or is just plain dishonest regarding their accusation that I had altered the originating post on this thread, only they can explain why they felt the need to act in this manner which to me identifies as a rather desperate situation they felt themselves in considering any edits to the originating post can be quite easily factually proven. I am not here to participate in nonsensical discussion as they have been informed.        

[sixgun]

3 minutes ago, Wonger said:

I would advise and expect anyone reading this thread to not make any investment decisions on the basis that I refuse to accept an absurd offer of a £100 bet with someone whom either has an extremely bad memory or is just plain dishonest regarding their accusation that I had altered the originating post on this thread, only they can explain why they felt the need to act in this manner which to me identifies as a rather desperate situation they felt themselves in considering any edits to the originating post can be quite easily factually proven. I am not here to participate in nonsensical discussion as they have been informed.        

i knew you would not take the bet even before i posted the offer. You are posting a distraction. You play the victim, you are claiming mock outrage and offence. You claim your credibility has been called into question but as i said you haven't been here long enough nor posted enough to have credibility for me to call it into question.

You post you recommend selling silver futures to everyone with a physical holding in silver. That's everyone here. Calling Planet Wonger..... i think the lights are on but no-one is at home. This is reckless advice. As i explained, as @HawkHybrid explained, that is inappropriate for the vast majority of members. Just like i said, it would be speculative. It doesn't hedge the typical silver form members silver holding, it puts them in more risk. Members can decide whether they believe you are hedging multiples of a 5000oz silver bullion physical position.

[Abyss]

Future options / CFD / Spread betting leveraged financial instruments anyone can use to speculate on the price of Gold and Silver. Absolutely nothing wrong with using these products provided aware high risk nature and the level of leverage used and you have a strategy gives you an edge and mastered risk and money management principles. Don't have any of these then I would avoid these products like the plague.

You can use combination of future and options to hedge your physical stack but these only applies individuals that hold six figures in physical PMs not applicable to majority of collectors / stackers.

[Wonger]

When you can very easily hedge £1510 of Silver with £151 as explained previously and far less at the time of explaining back in June 2018, why do they need to be holding six figures in physical if they wish to hedge?

[Wonger]

11 hours ago, RichRock said:

@Wonger 

You seem to be avoiding the question. Are you going to take the bet Sixgun called you out on above? Or has the smell of White Hall paint overcome you?

Looking forward to your best excuse, or does your government expenses account not allow for a temporary civilian expenses account? I knew the Gov. was skint, but £100 for f*cks sake??

As for your Tranches, I would call your bet selection target of $4 Silver...”Cat sh*t Wrapped in Dog sh*t” and give it a “BBB” rating. (Mark Baum, The Big Short)

Please forget posting your sh*t Utube vids, we’ve seen them before, if you WERE a trader you would not even post these. We’ve seen them, analysed them, forgotten them...years ago, and you spout them as if they are real up to date news.

Forex traders were warned (on Thompson Reuters etc.) to jump out BEFORE your CHF crash happened, just like the JPY etc. I jumped, you however are looking at history and formulating a story.

I thought you would take the bet with SixGun, maybe I will be proved wrong, but I suspect not.

In fact, I’m calling you out. If you are a fellow trader, play the game and put your money forth. But alas, I fear there will be no bet, you won't do it, but formulate some crappy excuse..

PS Expecting reply "You are insulting me lol"

 

[Wonger]

😀.https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-03/global-corruption-rise-100-bills-see-mysterious-surge-circulation