• The above Banner is a Sponsored Banner.

    Upgrade to Premium Membership to remove this Banner & All Google Ads. For full list of Premium Member benefits Click HERE.

  • Join The Silver Forum

    The Silver Forum is one of the largest and best loved silver and gold precious metals forums in the world. Join today for FREE! Browse the sponsors topics (hidden to guests) for deals and offers, check out the bargains in the members trade section and join in with our community reacting and commenting on topic posts. If you have any questions whatsoever about precious metals collecting and investing please join and start a topic and we will be here to help with our knowledge :) happy stacking. 

Wonger

Silver price about to plummet

Recommended Posts

 On the 12/06/2018 the silver price closed at $17.03, the commercials were net short 67000 futures contracts, the result was a drop of $3.13 to $13.90 on the 14/11/2018, the most recent COT report is 25/02/2019 ( its still 2 weeks behind due to the government shut down) the commercials are now 78000 net short futures contracts, this points to a drop to the low $13.00 range, Ive now hedged my physical silver by going short, while hedged I receive 2% interest because Im buying US Dollars which have a yield and selling silver which does not, I would recommend this to anyone who is holding physical silver, its the sensible thing to do.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We had this discussion last year. Nothing has changed. 

If you try to isolate yourself from every wiggle and selloff in the the spot price then you shouldn't be invested in it in the first place.

IMO there's just as likely to be an 10% upside squeeze that'll rip the face off the shorts than a 10% selloff in the short term. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Silver has not been into the low $13 range since 2009. We have seen what i would estimate 5% annual inflation since then but let's say it has been 2%.

A price of $13.20 (low $13's) at 2% inflation works out at $16.09. If you were to extract inflation from a price of $13.20 it produces a price of $10.80.

Anything is possible with the paper markets but we have seen a pick up in silver demand even in the sluggish US retail market with the US Mint selling out of American Silver Eagles this month. The paper market is loosely linked to reality.

There is overhead resistance on the charts - a long term trend price got under last summer. This slowly rising trend line has proved to be resistance recently - we will see another run up.

We see a cup almost complete on the gold chart, so i expect a pull back should price get up to the $1350-60 level. This would classically 1/3 of the way down to the lows at 1160 last summer. So we should see a dip to around $1300 which would make sense as this is a big round number and a level of strong support. One would expect a coincident pull back in silver but not to the low $13's -

ZxzhlUsb.png

Edited by sixgun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just another crazy deflationist.

 

On 25/06/2018 at 13:58, Wonger said:

 

I think that we will now see a rally in gold above $1400 with a corresponding rally in silver,  after that i see a gold drop to around $600-700 and silver around $4-5, this will be to clear everyone out apart from the most steadfast holders, im buying now and hedging once this rally is over as i fear once this drop gathers momentum, physical will not be available, same as in 2008, have you any information on physical shortages already starting? ive have some evidence, im still researching as although i have long been trading gold and silver futures (i purchased paper gold at $400) and options, ive never actually purchased physical (boo goes the forum) but now i am,  What i can say without taking anything else into account and purely working with the technical gold chart, is that its a certainty that the gold lows in December 2015 will be breached, its taking longer than i thought it would but thats markets for you, so are many here hedging their downside risk? 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

for those who've been watching something like this,

he's not seeing the bigger picture. gold is unlikely to

reach ~$700. a 3 wave starting retracement structure

is unlikely to do that, not unless it's a smaller part of a

much larger wave. a 5 wave zigzag retracement as he

might have called it has a parallel c wave target of

~$430.

best guess is we are currently in the final parts of a

triangle with a move down near the end of the year to

finish the triangle at $1200-$1240.

 

HH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

His targets can be achieved if everything else follows suit, for example a repeat of the financial crisis. An interesting hindsight study I have though about doing, what the wave counts were in various markets before the last collapse what does it tell us about now. Can such an event be predicted. 

Other markets are at extremes seen at just before previous crisis or recessions, results of malinvestment. Some markets are cheap just coming off lows. 

If you are convinced and certain, any guesses as to how long it will take to reach your targets? Are you using wave count?

Man I hope you are right, gold that low would be excellent. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

there are rules to counting waves.

he's only following the rules loosely, hence his prediction

is possible but less probable.

I'm counting we're in a 'd' wave of a triangle that started mid

2016. once we finish with a target ~$1360, we should move

lower for many months.

'e' wave target of $1200-$1240 most likely dec 2019.

(I'm convinced enough to not take up any more long term

long positions until then, unless something breaks my count)

 

I'm predicting that we're likely to see price movement this year

that rhymes with the price movements that we had last year.

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i am listening to the video - firstly this man is incorrect in calling gold and silver a commodity. Gold is priced off the bond market - it is money. The central banks do not stack gold as a commodity - they stack it as a tier one asset with no liability. It is money - everything else is credit (JP Morgan). Silver is linked to gold. They trade as currencies on the currency markets. The criminal bank, the BIS trades gold and silver. This bank is not in the business of trading pig iron and corn - it deals in money (gold and silver) and currency assets.

Silver has to be mined and refined and cast - this costs. Silver is a real tangible asset. Gold miners are probably in profit now but in the $1200's the bigger miners are breaking even. They are loaded to the gills with debt from when they overreached when gold was much higher and now they are feeling the pain.

As HH says there are rules to counting waves. Elliott wave should be the number one predictive charting method - the problem is EW is very subjective. i have seen EW practitioners count and recount and recount, so it becomes a retrospective tool. Why are these people selling services if their methods are so good? Why aren't they billionaires? Robert Prechter is perhaps the biggest name in Elliott Wave. Why is he bothering with his advisory service when he could make $millions on the markets?

i see the metals in a holding pattern, bumping around in a range which it has held since 2014. Price could languish here for some time longer - the longer we are here the less likely it is price will fall b/c when the price of real money against fiat is not rising it is actually falling due to inflation. Gold is mispriced by the bond market. Gold is priced as if the USD is going to hold its value, indeed that it will increase slightly. Now we could go into deflation but this is not what we are seeing. The central banks are not pushing up yields or they will break the world economy. The idea the US economy is doing well is refuted by the fact the Fed has become very dovish. Real inflation is over 5% - a member here did his own inflation check and came out with 5% per year over the last 4 years. That means negative real interest rates on bonds. That is uber bullish for gold and gold will drag up silver. That does not mean the bond market will come to its senses anytime soon but certainly central banks outside the West are stocking up on gold rather than Treasuries which are yielding negative real interest rates.

Edited by sixgun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Studied technical analysis for number of years and and I have come to conclusion I cannot successfully use Elliott wave theory because their is to many different ways of analysing the same charts with different start and end wave counts.

The first ten minutes in the YouTube video below explains how these set of traders are trading Silver in the paper markets

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

.once we finish with a target ~$1360, we should move lower for many months. 'e' wave target of $1200-$1240 most likely dec 2019.

i agree with your target of $1360 - this is very likely to be a strong resistance level. However i don't see price going down to $1200 - 1240 and taking the rest of the year. i see the pull back to be to $1300.

This is a chart i put up the other week - we can see price has found resistance at the $1350 - 1360 level. So i expect a pull back from there. Then we see potential support at $1300 which are previously resistance. That would be at the level one would classically expect to see the handle of a cup and handle formation on the chart. We have a beautiful cup forming on the chart. The Andrews' fork lines up with the horizontal support resistance levels which line up with the cup and handle formation. We also see negative real interest rates and central bank gold buying which are again bullish.

When multiple indicators lines up for an overall bullish or bearish move, you ought to sit up and take notice. Elliott Wave might predict XYZ but i have seen it having been redrawn too many times when the first predictions didn't pan out.

 

rIJS3uRd.png

Edited by sixgun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@Abyss try calling the retracement from the 2011 highs:

a wxy structure consisting of a flat that ends in an ending

diagonal for the 5th of wave c. then call it a running flat

for wave x that ends mid 2016. then a triangle for wave y

that targets $1236 ending wave 4 with a 50% retracement

of wave 3. or $1228 for 50% retracement of the triangle.

 

calculate how well the wave sizing and fib retracements fit?

I think I might have found a match that retraces for each

sub wave.

 

HH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@HawkHybrid I didn't say I was any good at trading just I cannot and do not use elliot wave theory. Technical analysis on charts element science and art and I not mastered the the skillset and I have been wrong many times on analysing charts. You can go back to some earlier posts when I was emotionally taken back when Silver hit $14. My opinion at the time prices were still going significantly lower and still wanted to establish my physical gold/silver position which was completed by purchasing 1 oz Gold Queens Beasts coins partly as defensive move hoping future premium appreciation would offset any negative spot movement in price. Despite being emotionally fearful of further price drops I still managed to back up the truck and establish the majority of my physical stack when Gold $1200 and Silver $14 in retrospect I had lady luck with me :).

 

Edited by Abyss

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always get a kick out of these technical price analyses and short-term predictions, both on forums and on YouTube. If anyone could actually get it right consistently, they wouldn't be talking about it on thesilverforum.com or on YouTube - they would be to busy managing their wealth. In fact, I often question if folks with such strong opinions actually put their own bacon into the skillet. Great fun watching Youtube videos published years back making all these wild predictions, almost none of them coming to fruition with the ones that get close outside any reasonable time frame. 

 

Bottom line for me, silver & gold bullion are commodities that generally track with the value of the inflation adjusted global reserve currency over the long term. Never going to get rich off it, has been and will continue to be a reserve of money you already have. Also for me, not even the best vehicle for that purpose - I own it because of the history of the metal and the sound/feel of it in my hand. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, sixgun said:

i agree with your target of $1360 - this is very likely to be a strong resistance level. However i don't see price going down to $1200 - 1240 and taking the rest of the year. i see the pull back to be to $1300.

This is a chart i put up the other week - we can see price has found resistance at the $1350 - 1360 level. So i expect a pull back from there. Then we see potential support at $1300 which are previously resistance. That would be at the level one would classically expect to see the handle of a cup and handle formation on the chart. We have a beautiful cup forming on the chart. The Andrews' fork lines up with the horizontal support resistance levels which line up with the cup and handle formation. We also see negative real interest rates and central bank gold buying which are again bullish.

When multiple indicators lines up for an overall bullish or bearish move, you ought to sit up and take notice. Elliott Wave might predict XYZ but i have seen it having been redrawn too many times when the first predictions didn't pan out.

 

rIJS3uRd.png

 

in elliott wave terms this chart assumes that we've

already started a new impulse wave. what I'm saying

is that we're seeing a dragged out retracement wave.

the impulse wave that'll lead to highs that breach the

2011 high hasn't started yet. we should still be moving

mostly horizontal.

 

HH

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, SiliconToad said:

I always get a kick out of these technical price analyses and short-term predictions, both on forums and on YouTube. If anyone could actually get it right consistently, they wouldn't be talking about it on thesilverforum.com or on YouTube - they would be to busy managing their wealth. In fact, I often question if folks with such strong opinions actually put their own bacon into the skillet. Great fun watching Youtube videos published years back making all these wild predictions, almost none of them coming to fruition with the ones that get close outside any reasonable time frame.

If watch the first 10 minutes YouTube video I posted the trader is talking about putting on 150 lots if Silver price reached $14 mark again equivalent going long on 750000 oz of paper silver.

image.thumb.png.1964e1b39ba5a54ccf9a3eef26663259.png

Edited by Abyss

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

In elliott wave terms this chart assumes that we've already started a new impulse wave. what I'm saying is that we're seeing a dragged out retracement wave. the impulse wave that'll lead to highs that breach the 2011 high hasn't started yet. we should still be moving mostly horizontal.

HH

Well i actually hope that price does remain in a holding pattern. That would be good for me b/c when Kinesis launches (not that again 🤕) i can build up a bigger base of coins (gold and silver).

So yes we could stay in this range - the longer it consolidates, the tighter the spring coils and the bigger the breakout will be - so with this amount of consolidation both gold and silver will bust through their 2011 highs. i fully expect price will remain suppressed (you call it managed) until the West defaults and then China will show her hand and reprice gold. i can see so many pointers that entities are positioning themselves for this. What we don't want to see is the psychopaths of the Western banking cabal get their WWIII with some deluded idea they will win and steal China and Russia's gold. A third world war is what they have been planning for, it has been spoken, however insane that is to normal people.

Edited by sixgun

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.