Winning on the premium bonds best method?

[MickB]

I was talking at work about the minimum you can now put down on the premium bonds, which being £25 won't break the bank in building up an amount over time. 

The maximum I think is now £50k with a half decent chance of winning a tidy sum with that amount on a regular basis. With my paltry amount it'll be a long time coming but as I'm going to buy in small amounts from now, I'll improve my chances.

This is where my boss pointed out that when I get a decent amount of premium bonds, albeit in small amounts over time, I should cash out and buy them again immediately so I have a longer run of sequential numbers.

He said that most winners are ones with larger amounts with a good continuous run of numbers instead of erratically scattered numbers. I know that all numbers have an equal chance of being picked but does he have a point?

When looking at the winners list I did notice quite a few big winners had a good investment that were either for ten figures, which means the same amount in sequential numbers or they had a few thousand at a time that added to ten figures.

Does anyone else do this to better their chances?

[ChrisSilver]

There is no more chance winning if you have sequential numbers.

What I think is most likely happening is that there is more chance of winning if you have more tickets, and those who have £50k of premium bonds are most likely those who purchased them in one lump sum, therefore it gives the impression that it's more likely to win with sequential numbers.

[MancunianStacker]

I buy a regular amount each month. It returns around 1.25% a year for mwI’ve never sold them and debouching because they don’t get eneterwdt into the next draw immediately so you’d probably lose more chances of winning than what you’d benefit from. 

I dont think buying longer runs would statistically increase your chances. It’s as simple as the more tickets you buy the more you have in the “raffle”. 

 

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Added 0 minutes later...

Just now, ChrisSIlver said:

There is no more chance winning if you have sequential numbers.

What I think is most likely happening is that there is more chance of winning if you have more tickets, and those who have £50k of premium bonds are most likely those who purchased them in one lump sum, therefore it gives the impression that it's more likely to win with sequential numbers.

^ what he said!

[kimchi]

2 minutes ago, ChrisSIlver said:

There is no more chance winning if you have sequential numbers.

Our experience (40 years plus) is that sequential numbers not only have more chance of winning, usually prizes are 'clumped' into a 'winning group' of Premium Bonds.

[AlphaBeast]

Read this a few weeks ago, have hardly won anything and have taken my money out instead to invest elsewhere...

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds/

[MickB]

I hadn't noticed many small amounts winning big so it made me wonder if my boss had a point. You don't get many bond holders with £50k worth of bonds in £100 amounts. Suppose if you can afford the maximum you won't be buying in little amounts at a time. 

 

[MickB]

10 minutes ago, AlphaBeast said:

Read this a few weeks ago, have hardly won anything and have taken my money out instead to invest elsewhere...

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds/

Did you have your bonds for quite a few years and were they sequential numbers? 

Most people I know who have a reasonable amount have built up their bonds over a number of years but have only had small wins, nothing worth celebrating with.

My dad won £50 after 35 years of waiting and nothing since but at least it's better than the lottery as you always keep your stake after each draw.

[ChrisSilver]

On 25/02/2019 at 21:35, MickB said:

My dad won £50 after 35 years of waiting and nothing since but at least it's better than the lottery as you always keep your stake after each draw.

Yea I think it is definitely worth having some, even if it is just the minimum, it is nice to think you have a chance to win even if it is very very small odds. 

[AlphaBeast]

Yeah, I have had it for like 25+ years since I was a child...have barely won anything, maybe £25 once, but when I took my PB out, it was worth £300 so wasn't on the levels of £50k so possibly might have had better luck with that...however have to say I am more sceptical and rather invest the money into PMs. 

As you say, at least you get to keep your stake in PB as well, so that's a pro...

16 minutes ago, MickB said:

Did you have your bonds for quite a few years and were they sequential numbers? 

Most people I know who have a reasonable amount have built up their bonds over a number of years but have only had small wins, nothing worth celebrating with.

My dad won £50 after 35 years of waiting and nothing since but at least it's better than the lottery as you always keep your stake after each draw.

 

[AuricGoldfinger]

@MickB I’m afraid thats just superstition. 

If you withdraw and re buy you’ll be loosing out on a months worth of draw each time.

I keep most of my “cash” percentage in premium bonds. Easy to get to, average return is near enough same as a typical easy access account but the possibility to win something substantial. Plus 100% safe

[Martlet]

Reason more recent number tend to come up is that there are far more of them than old number, when people didn't invest so much or have cash in over the years. 

Certainly worth having some, I see them as recurring lottery ticket that can cash in. 

[FrozenMojito]

I've got some premium bonds, £5k of them. I occasionally get £25 or £50 out of them. The most I have ever won in one month was £150 (£100 + £50).

I view it as a substitute for the National Lottery. The UK National Lottery started in November 1994, 25 years ago this year. 52 weeks x 25 years = 1300 weeks so if I'd spent £4 per week that would be £5200. Of course the big lottery prizes are bigger but they are also rarer. So I could be £5k out of pocket but instead I still have my £5k and the only cost has been the opportunity cost of putting that cash elsewhere (where I could also have lost it, even if I'd just saved the cash, thanks to inflation). It's fairly quick to get your money out of PBs so I count it as part of my emergency fund.

Also it seems some people have a problem with random numbers 😀 Of course you could say that computers or indeed anything can never be truly random (there are only patterns which we have not learned to recognise yet...) but Ernie is one of the most random computers in the world, for example it uses environmental factors and thermal noise as part of its seed. Also don't forget that in the lottery the numbers 1 2 3 4 5 6 are as likely as any other set of numbers. Apparently that is the most common set of numbers picked so if it does ever come up the prize is going to be tiny 😀

I have played the lottery in the past, just for fun. I noticed that on the back of the number card there is a set of instructions instructions including a section called "how to win" but unfortunately that's the one piece of information it doesn't provide...

[Kookaburracollector]

We put £30 a month away into premium bonds, and use it as a form of pet insurance 🐩 (see avatar). After 6 years there is a reasonable ‘pot,’ and should the worst happen we have funds to pay for a big vets bill. Logic being = insurance companies will be making a profit therefore it should be cheaper to save and pay yourself! A bit of a risk I guess, but so far so good, plus the longer the dog stays healthy the better the decision looks.

Main advantage is the low risk element, as said previous, it’s like a lottery ticket that never gets thrown away. Over last 10 years we average about 2%.Just another string to the bow in a diverse investment portfolio,and effectively regarded as ‘a bit of fun’.

Who doesn’t look forward to that ‘drumroll’ at the start of the month.??

[MickB]

I'm going to buy my granddaughter £25 worth every other month as well as some for myself. It would be nice if her bonds won her a decent amount to go into her bank account.

Wouldn't know what to do if she won the jackpot though, especially if she then had enough to pay my mortgage off

[AuricGoldfinger]

Premium bonds? What premium bonds? 👀

[MancunianStacker]

New generation ERNIE machine draws winning numbers within 12 minutes

https://mol.im/a/6760741

 

odds 24,500:1 of winning a prize. The minimum prize being £25

 

I just won 2 x £25 today on separate bond numbers. It is averaging a 1.4% return 

[caloundracats]

Well done - you should be so lucky. I've only won £50 once and had PB since I was a child. Oh well, you've got to be in to win as they say.

[AuricGoldfinger]

Just wondering what kind of prizes anyone with the maximum amount is getting? And is it on a regular basis?

[TopHatsTales]

Back when it was a £30k limit, I knew someone who had £120k in. Him, his wife and 2 kids.

Reckoned on £1k month absolute minimum back then.

Know someone with £50k in now. They reckon about £100 month.

I'm not far off max, had £500 single about a year ago, but maybe 1-2 £25's month, sometimes nothing.

[AuricGoldfinger]

@TopHatsTales thanks, im not too far off the maximum but have only been in for one draw so far and won 1 x £25. Around £100 a month would be worth it - not expecting great returns but its good to have some money put away thats not really tied up as an investment and is next best thing to cash.

Hoping to max it out in the next few months if all goes well. I had around 10k around 7 years ago and used to win 1 or 2 x £25 a month on that! I do enjoying the anticipation of checking if you’ve won anything!

[Cornishfarmer]

Pay out gone down in last few years.   I don’t have a massive amount in but I get about 1% return

[kimchi]

A relative has near the maximum and usually gets £25 to max £75 a month - with the latter being a rare/good month! It was quite often £50 to £100 most months until they reduced the prizes.

[Thesilverguy]

Many many years ago Someone in Blackpool only had 100 numbers and she won 1 million pound... I invest minimum of £25 a month... I only do it really as I find it soo easy to save up 

[watchesandwhisky]

I recently bought a 10000 block of premium bonds (first draw entered will be September) I have set it to buy more with any winnings - and will top it up with 50 quid per month on top. 

Seems like a good way to save really.

[AuricGoldfinger]

@Madstacks it’s definitely a good way to save. Bit gutted i didn’t win anything this month but i have the last 2 months, I’m about to make my final payment this month as i will reach the maximum.

This will mean no future re investment but i think I’m going to use any future winnings to buy a sovereign every now and then as otherwise its easy to not really feel the benefit from the odd £100/125