Silver in danger

[katmonkey]

Article that mentions future availability of silver:

https://www.universal-sci.com/headlines/2019/1/25/periodic-table-new-version-warns-of-elements-that-are-endangered

[HawkHybrid]

silver is not under threat of extinction any time soon 

 

HH

[Au79]

I might not be around in the next 100 years. Oh boy professor.

[PansPurse]

Global reserves of Francium are eye-wateringly low...

[danmc82]

2 hours ago, PansPurse said:

Global reserves of Francium are eye-wateringly low...

Be nice to have a 1oz Brit in Francium, I wouldnt look at it in the bath though 😁

[PansPurse]

20 minutes ago, danmc82 said:

Be nice to have a 1oz Brit in Francium, I wouldnt look at it in the bath though 😁

Pretty sure it'd lead to death by radiation poisoning though...

[NikolaAnne]

4 minutes ago, SteveDavies said:

Mexico has only 4 years known reserves left at current rate of depletion.

 

i know everybody thinks they will alway find more silver to mine, but there will come at time when it's hard to find, and we could be getting nearer 

That's not that the element is scarce though, it's simply that we've dug it all up 🙂 

Almost time for people to sell their bullion at premium to electronic manufacturers 😉

[PansPurse]

It's partially supply and demand, if silver becomes scarcer/more expensive electornics manufacturers will start scrimping in how they use it or look at alternatives. I know I've said ti a few times but carbon nanomaterials can probably replace gold and silver in about ninety percent of electronics applications.

[HawkHybrid]

13 minutes ago, SteveDavies said:

Mexico has only 4 years known reserves left at current rate of depletion.

 

i know everybody thinks they will alway find more silver to mine, but there will come at time when it's hard to find, and we could be getting nearer 

 

this is like saying a wheat farmer has only one harvest worth

of wheat to sell this year.(assuming yearly cyclical wheat

harvest) the wheat farmer has yet to even sow the seeds for

next years harvest. hence there will be less wheat from this

farmer next year.(data is correct but conclusion is obviously

untrue)

 

silver mining like farming uses a delivered 'just in time' model.

for miners there's the aisc(all included sustainable cost). this

takes into account the cost to develop new veins/areas to

replenish that which is being taken out of the ground.

 

HH

[HawkHybrid]

a flat aisc is almost infinitely replenishable. (you are replacing every

ounce mined with a ready to mine ounce at a similar price)

 

silver mining follows a 'just in time' model for supply. there is no

risk of it running out any time soon.

 

hochschild have closed their arcata mine. as soon as the silver

price goes up to a suitable price they will be reopening that

mine to add to production. (in theory the silver price for that to

happen should be $20 or less) there are mines 'waiting'  to be

opened.

 

HH

[Martlet]

I read a blog post about this a while ago, by someone in the know, who stated its largely nonsense.  Its not that mineral reserves are inexhaustible but that the ones "known" are those that are currently economical to exploit with known technology.  Prices and technologies change and so known resources will become viable reserves, new resources will be sought.

The interesting example is of helium.  There is virtually no reserves as it seeps through rocks and escapes the atmosphere so easily.  However it is abundant in deep hydrocarbon reserves, so when they get natural gas there is tons of helium to capture.  I recall another related tale from years ago that there was only a couple of stores and the largest in US was closed as uneconomical.  This led to shortages and minor panic (shortage of balloons, canisters become rationed) until it was realised this was silly and the facility reopened.  

More relevant to us, its said that landfill has more gold per ton than the best gold mines and there are substantial silver supplies from mining tin, copper and other minerals, some not economic today but at some point huge spoil mounds become open cast silver mines. 

[KevinFlynn]

Will silver Pandas be super endangered then?

 

[/SPAM]

[HawkHybrid]

40 minutes ago, SteveDavies said:

 

It doesn't matter how much is on earth, all that matters is how much is available.

 

when the next gold and silver mania happened as the one in the late 1970s when the public in the western world rushed to PMs, all that matters is how much physical is available.

 

 

yes there may be vast quantities in land fill, and the bottom of waste dumps, but when the public are in a mania to buy, and digital or paper promises just won't do, all that matters is how much is available in delivery form.

 

there is not much available at all compared with the amount of people on earth and the amount of units of fiat currency

 

3 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

any time soon

 

HH

[Au79]

2 hours ago, KevinFlynn said:

Will silver Pandas be super endangered then?

[/SPAM]

Mintages of silver Pandas shall see a huge reduction. Scientists around the world will be studying how to save the silver Pandas. Heroes arises to the occasion. The governments and bankers shall save the day. The people will cheer an exordinary price for the purpose of melting a silver Pandas will save silver Pandas from extinction.

[/SPAM]

[HawkHybrid]

currencies have to go up exponentially(that's what having

interest rates on currencies do). in nominal terms silver is

destined to rise, this is the same for all goods and services

priced in currency. this is far from a valid argument to say

that the value given to silver will rise. in fact the gsr shows

that the value of silver has decreased over the last few

decades versus gold. both have been rising in nominal terms

but gold has risen faster than silver during this time frame.

 

there is nothing to suggest that actual demand for silver will

rise beating population growth from an equilibrium over a

sustained period of time(eg over a decade or more).

 

the grades of gold(grams/tonne) have been getting lower

over the last decade or more. from memory ~3g to ~2g. I

don't think the grades of silver is decreasing at any where

near the same rate(best guess correct me if I'm wrong). also

much of silver is mined a by product of mining other metals.

why would the supply of silver reduce versus the supply of

other metals that come from the very same mines? 

 

HH

[TerryGriffiths]

On 15/02/2019 at 20:30, SteveDavies said:

 

It doesn't matter how much is on earth, all that matters is how much is available.

 

when the next gold and silver mania happened as the one in the late 1970s when the public in the western world rushed to PMs, all that matters is how much physical is available.

 

 

yes there may be vast quantities in land fill, and the bottom of waste dumps, but when the public are in a mania to buy, and digital or paper promises just won't do, all that matters is how much is available in delivery form.

 

there is not much available at all compared with the amount of people on earth and the amount of units of fiat currency

Great to see another snooker legend on the forum.