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Sliopjbsail

If silver shot up in value.......

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I would only be willing to sell the most generic stuff I hold(bars, national bullion coins). I find the silver and gold to be too beautiful to part with. I feel very accomplished and proud when I look at the metals. It would have to be basically a life and death situation to get rid of most of it.

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If silver shot up to crazy levels, a likely cause would be because institutions and high-wealth individuals were collectively moving their investments into an asset class that is liquid and protects against loss - paper precious metals in this scenario. The actual price for physical metal would increase as market makers pickup stock as a hedge/back-stop to their trades (which often operates at multiples of underlying physical metal). Thus, the smart move would be to sell off the metal when it pops to stupid levels and put it into an asset that is oversold due to market fear (e.g. stock market).

 

This is actually what happened during the lead-in and over the course of the recession here in the States awhile back.  

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I have a strange feeling that silver mines shutting down process  is part of plan of JP Morgan (and other like them), when supply drys they can do flash bubble on silver price coz bringing back to operative state all mines and whole supply chain will take time . 

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there must be so many options on making money for the likes of

jp morgan etc. why would they care about silver? it's such a tiny

market for such major players to concentrate so much effort on?

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

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the silver market is ~1/8th the size of the gold market.

keeping everything the same silver needs to go up 8 times

(reaching $120/toz) to reach the same size as the gold

market. at the height of the 2011 top silver never reached

the same market size as gold. how much money can

jp morgan put into silver? how much profit will it make

them? (the market for silver is too small and too illiquid)

 

HH

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10 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

there must be so many options on making money for the likes of

jp morgan etc. why would they care about silver? it's such a tiny

market for such major players to concentrate so much effort on?

 

HH

I don't believe they make money buying or selling silver, but rather making a market. For example, a large hedge fund wants to protect against against a stock drop due to interest rate hikes, but they don't want to liquidate hundreds of millions of dollars in a position. They go to JP Morgan and say, "we would like to buy x-thousand ounces of a basket of precious metals." JP is like, "sure, no problem. Here is a piece of paper (minus hefty fees) saying you bought your precious metal basket at a particular price. Come back to  us to cash it in when you are ready."

JP does this on *both* sides of the trade, raking in fees from all parties, all the while not actually owning any of the metal they are selling or agreeing to buy in the future. One day the risk-management guy bumps into the financial instrument guy and asks, "hey, been watching the books. What happens if there is a black swan event and you have to cover these positions?" The reply, "no worries, mate, we will just buy what we need off the market."

The risk management guy rolls his eyes, "do you know how much that is going to cost or how likely it is that such a call will be needed?" 

The financial instrument guy shrugs.

Risk management guy shakes his head, "good thing we employ a team of people with no social skills or employment prospects, other than being insanely good at math, paying them half a million per year plus hookers and blow to tell us. You need to have X-amount of underlying assets for a Y-risk profile. Go buy some ****ing precious metals."

Financial instrument guy is like, "where am I supposed to get the money for that?

Risk management guy, "how about using some of the money you've been making from buying and selling the metals you don't own to your clients?"

 

This is why the global silver market will never behave rationally. 

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2 hours ago, HawkHybrid said:

the silver market is ~1/8th the size of the gold market.

keeping everything the same silver needs to go up 8 times

(reaching $120/toz) to reach the same size as the gold

market. at the height of the 2011 top silver never reached

the same market size as gold. how much money can

jp morgan put into silver? how much profit will it make

them? (the market for silver is too small and too illiquid)

 

HH

That is all true but gold is much harder to manipulate than silver. They can borrow as much money as they need coz they have unlimited supply. Profit is impossible to estimate for someone as small as me but they are not baaing such huge quantities of silver for fun. (physical one not paper)   

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Let’s get real about J.P. Morgan and what their role is in the silver market and why they do what they do. 

1. They are one of the pillars of the Federal Reserve Bank (Which isn’t Federal and has is no Reserve)

2. They are the American governments acting agent in the silver market..

The first 5 minutes of this YouTube clip should clarify the facts about what is actually going on. Hope you enjoy!

 

 https://arcadiaeconomics.com/silver-price/gatas-chris-powell-on-jp-morgan-silver-and-how-it-all-plays-out/

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7 hours ago, Kookaburracollector said:

Let’s get real about J.P. Morgan and what their role is in the silver market and why they do what they do. 

1. They are one of the pillars of the Federal Reserve Bank (Which isn’t Federal and has is no Reserve)

2. They are the American governments acting agent in the silver market..

The first 5 minutes of this YouTube clip should clarify the facts about what is actually going on. Hope you enjoy!

 

 https://arcadiaeconomics.com/silver-price/gatas-chris-powell-on-jp-morgan-silver-and-how-it-all-plays-out/

 

completely biased non factual accusations.

 

I didn't know jp morgan only have one client in the world,

and that client is the us government. therefore jp morgan

must be rigging the markets for the us government.

 

if the us government wanted to ban gold they would simply

make a law to do so.(they've done it before). (I'm assuming

something similar for silver would work as well)

 

'governments have unlimited money' gata's chris powell.

(is that a serious statement?)

 

jp morgan's only interest is making money. there is not enough

profit to be had from such a small silver market. a few

employee's at jp morgan may find the profits big enough to be

worth the risk, but the whole of jp morgan?

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

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59 minutes ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

completely biased non factual accusations.

 

I didn't know jp morgan only have one client in the world,

and that client is the us government. therefore jp morgan

must be rigging the markets for the us government.

 

if the us government wanted to ban gold the would simply

make a law to do so.(they've done it before). (I'm assuming

something similar for silver would work as well)

 

'governments have unlimited money' gata's chris powell.

(is that a serious statement?)

 

jp morgan's only interest is making money. there is not enough

profit to be had from such a small silver market. a few

employee's at jp morgan may find the profits big enough to be

worth the risk, but the whole of jp morgan?

 

HH

I agree that there is hyperbole around JP, but what is not in dispute is that JP (and others) buy and sell silver (and most other commodities) that they don't actually own. This distorts the market leading to irrational prices in many circumstances. For folks who believe precious metals are a "true" or "honest" store of value based on a "physical means of exchange," JP is taking a poo on the core philosophical reason they own precious metals.

 

Also agree that JP and others don't have any malicious intent, just want to make a buck, and most of the noise out there is to create fear by folks who want to sell something.  

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1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

completely biased non factual accusations.

 

I didn't know jp morgan only have one client in the world,

and that client is the us government. therefore jp morgan

must be rigging the markets for the us government.

 

if the us government wanted to ban gold they would simply

make a law to do so.(they've done it before). (I'm assuming

something similar for silver would work as well)

 

'governments have unlimited money' gata's chris powell.

(is that a serious statement?)

 

jp morgan's only interest is making money. there is not enough

profit to be had from such a small silver market. a few

employee's at jp morgan may find the profits big enough to be

worth the risk, but the whole of jp morgan?

 

HH

Ok so there is no price manipulation and suppress over silver? There is no 161 paper ounces of silver to physical one ? We just spread conspiracy theories. You ever heard about George Soros and his deal with pounds, it was called ridiculous theory as well at the time.

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28 minutes ago, Michal said:

price manipulation

this is true.

 

28 minutes ago, Michal said:

suppress over silver

this is false.

 

prices are manipulated both higher and lower to turn

a profit. prices are not suppressed cos they are

sometimes manipulated higher to turn a profit.

the first one does not automatically lead to the second.

 

28 minutes ago, Michal said:

There is no 161 paper ounces of silver to physical one ?

this is just how the market conditions are currently for

the market to make it's price discovery. think of it like

betting on the horses. the paper bets are just bets. the

gamblers are only interested in winning money. they

could make bets on any other underlying commodity.

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

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1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

 

completely biased non factual accusations.

 

I didn't know jp morgan only have one client in the world,

and that client is the us government. therefore jp morgan

must be rigging the markets for the us government.

 

if the us government wanted to ban gold the would simply

make a law to do so.(they've done it before). (I'm assuming

something similar for silver would work as well)

 

'governments have unlimited money' gata's chris powell.

(is that a serious statement?)

 

jp morgan's only interest is making money. there is not enough

profit to be had from such a small silver market. a few

employee's at jp morgan may find the profits big enough to be

worth the risk, but the whole of jp morgan?

 

HH

You are very fixed in your views HH. You also seem to like making quotes of things that people never actually said?

For example. ‘I didn’t know JP Morgan only had one client in the world,’. I never said that. I said that J.P. Morgan act as a broker for the American government. I did not say they only had one client. FACT

Example 2 - if the us government wanted to ban gold the would simply make a law to do so.(they've done it before).

Where did I suggest they wanted to ban gold??? I didn’t FACT

Having read several of your musings, I find it hard to comprehend much of what you say. Where you lack facts, you seem to insert your own personal opinion. I am a bright individual (degree in business studies, IQ 140+, and traded for 30 years) and am only offering an alternative view to others on this forum.

One fact that is undeniable.. you have posted 2123 times and only got 591 community reputation points...that’s 28 per 100 posts

I have posted 246 times and received 414 community reputation points. That’s 168 per 100 posts. 

The learned members on this forum, I am sure will draw their own conclusions from the above.

HH This is the last time I will post on this thread, because i fear that whatever I say you will take issue with. So, feel free to continue with your musings on this thread unchallenged. No doubt you will quote me again to get the last word, and no doubt no one will give you a reputation point for doing so. Farewell HH.

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13 minutes ago, Kookaburracollector said:

One fact that is undeniable.. you have posted 2123 times and only got 591 community reputation points...that’s 28 per 100 posts

Yeah, but community reputation is probably not the best measure of reliability for a source. I think mine is higher than @HawkHybrid but that's probably because I like posting photos of my new acquisitions on the "Today I Received" thread. I don;t kid myself that I know more about the silver market than HH nor that courting popularity on a forum would mean being more accurate or knowledgeable on the subject matter ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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35 minutes ago, Kookaburracollector said:

For example. ‘I didn’t know JP Morgan only had one client in the world,’. I never said that. I said that J.P. Morgan act as a broker for the American government. I did not say they only had one client. FACT

 

gata's chris powell claims jp morgan is acting on behalf of

clients in the silver market - probably true. he then claims

jp morgan is acting on behalf of the us government in the

silver markets - this is not true unless proof is given or

unless the us government is the only client jp morgan has.

 

35 minutes ago, Kookaburracollector said:

 because i fear that whatever I say you will take issue with

you're posting misleading rumours as facts.

(maybe you can prove that the rumours are

actually true?)

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

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Ok guys lets cool down. Now days we get so much information noise that it can be really difficult to check source properly but even rumors are worth at least consideration or slight discussion.

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On ‎18‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 09:58, HawkHybrid said:

 

gata's chris powell claims jp morgan is acting on behalf of

clients in the silver market - probably true. he then claims

jp morgan is acting on behalf of the us government in the

silver markets - this is not true unless proof is given or

unless the us government is the only client jp morgan has.

 

you're posting misleading rumours as facts.

(maybe you can prove that the rumours are

actually true?)

 

HH

 

Its a lot simpler than all of that. JPM is "allowed" to manipulate the silver market by the USG to keep the dollar alive. If PM's rise to a natural equilibrium, the dollar tanks, economy's tank, stock market and bubbles start popping everywhere. Why silver you asked earlier?  Gold is the rich mans store of wealth, silver IS the money of the people. It literally is the "peoples money"  It has been for a long time and contrary to the onslaught of propaganda to remove it from view it will always be. When silver hit $50 in 2011 it should have kept going. They stopped it on purpose. Currently JPM is not the biggest player in silver. There are others who have much more than they do.

Israel Friedman wrote in 2006: “Only a shortage in physicals can bring high prices and defeat the paper market and force the naked short sellers into bankruptcy.”

For the last 16 years or so we have had a deficit in compared to mining supply and demand. Above ground supply's are nearly depleted. Look at the silver institutes charts, the facts speak for themselves. With the price being depressed(artificially suppressed) over the last decade or so it has caused mines to pull way back on exploration. At, or just above AISC mines are not making a profit so some are closing down and some are cutting back by laying off employees and slowing production. I believe the only thing that has kept them going is the low cost of fuel for the machinery.  Also ore grades are diminishing meaning it takes more mining to create the same amount of silver per ton of ore. I know from your posts you don't believe the price of silver is being suppressed but it is. They take it down to just above mining costs so they can continue to buy large amounts at the cheapest prices but not to low that the mines stop producing. Since 70% of silver is a by product of copper/zinc and gold mining it becomes price insensitive. Meaning they wont/cant ramp up mining just because the price rises, even if it is significantly. Silver only mines can but there is a lag between mining and the end product since they have been forced to reduce production over the last several years. Even the USGS several years ago predicted a shortage by 2020. If my math is correct and all of the research I have done is remotely correct, I am predicting a shortage crunch/short squeeze coming sometime in the 4th quarter of this year. To be honest I don't care either way. I am not selling, I will keep my wealth preservation tools in place.

Silver is no longer regarded as a good investment and it is only owned by a small minority of hard money advocates and bullion buyers who realise its importance as a hedging instrument and a safe haven, store of value asset. JP Morgan, however, seems to realise the value of owning physical silver bullion today. If you asked Dimon if silver was a good investment he would surely tell you no. Look at what they do, not what they say.

Take a look at rule #589-  https://www.cmegroup.com/content/dam/cmegroup/rulebook/CME/I/5/5.pdf

 

Edited by STONE

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Why the Collapse of Bear Stearns Changed the Silver Market Forever

SilverSeek  ( Original )
MAR 22, 2018

Very few people know exactly what was said, promised, discovered, obfuscated, threatened, etc. in the dark and high-tension days surrounding the collapse of Bear Stearns and its taxpayer-subsidized subsequent digestion by JPMorgan.

What is irrefutable is that JPMorgan inherited Bear’s enormous and disastrous short silver position. How they would deal with it in response has fundamentally altered the silver market, while simultaneously setting it up for a historic rally.

uploads%2F1521733570839-screen-shot-2012-04-16-at-5-02-54-pm.png

Bear Stearns’ failure coincided, to the day, with gold hitting all-time highs (over $1000) and silver hitting 30 year highs ($21). It’s easy to calculate that Bear lost more than $2 billion in being short gold and silver from yearend 2007 to mid-March 2008.

The discovery, in September 2008, that JPMorgan was now the largest short seller in COMEX gold and silver made it clear that the CFTC lied in its previous public letters denying there was no problem with big shorts in the silver market.

Only after JPMorgan bought enough physical silver by 2012 to 2013 to cover Bear Stearns’ former COMEX paper short position, did it realize it didn’t have to stop accumulating metal as a defensive measure; but that it had the means, motive and opportunity to turn what was a highly defensive original motive into a highly offensive one in terms of an unprecedented pure money-making opportunity.

Why else would JPMorgan, perhaps the purest example of a profit-making machine, go on to buy 700 million ounces of physical silver, if not to profit? Not that it may matter much when JPMorgan switched from defense to offense, but none of this would have probably occurred had JPMorgan not taken over Bear Stearns. That’s why I feel the takeover is the most important development in the modern history of silver.

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Here is another interesting tidbit: "In October 2009, China banned the export of silver, depriving the market of approximately 154 Moz  blocking JPM in a short-squeeze by not delivering the silver sold by China through Bear Stearns. This caused the prices to skyrocket in 2010 and 2011. The silver price climbed from 14,67 to $ 49. In May 2011, the CME changed the rules to crash the speculator with 5 successive margin calls… exactly like in 1980."

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@STONE  use this thread for discussing specifics to the jp morgan

manipulation of silver. I'm quite clear in that thread as why I believe

the rumours don't actually constitute proof of suppression, just

proof of manipulation(which is not the same thing).

 

(maybe a moderator can help if you choose to move your posts

over?)

 

HH

Edited by HawkHybrid

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I didn't say it wasn't relevant to the thread.

I suggested to keep it all in one thread cos I don't want

to keep on repeating myself.

there is no proof that the rumours are true.

fundamentals can take years, decades... to materialise.

 

HH

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