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Lindeman

What will we regret more: not selling at the top, or not buying now!?

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To me this is a key question ( as I failed to take enough gains back in Jan 2018) .....but in fact there is only one choice I can impact now, and thats whether I should be buying loads of CC right now.  After thinking about this a lot  (as us HODLErs have had plenty time in the bear market to think about it😥) I realize that while its difficult to erase the past, or the prices paid for current positions, my intuition (will not call it skill because its effectively gambling) is too buy big this Spring when sentiment is still rock bottom and prices low. Of course - fewer coins will survivve and rise in the next bull run , and are we really at the bottom? 

For what its worth, looking at the alts down over 80% those I may be tempted to dip back into include SUB, NANO,  OMG, ADA.  XRP and XLM did not drop quite so much...and may even have a use-case 😉

Ones that I think will never recover include DENT, NAV, CVC, MCO...

For me - jury ia out on ETH and LTC ....so for a base play its still BTC  

thoughts on your current strategies? I am not rushing back in get , but I hope I dont regret that if a bull season opens ! 

Lindeman 

 

 

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29 minutes ago, Lindeman said:

To me this is a key question ( as I failed to take enough gains back in Jan 2018) .....but in fact there is only one choice I can impact now, and thats whether I should be buying loads of CC right now.  After thinking about this a lot  (as us HODLErs have had plenty time in the bear market to think about it😥) I realize that while its difficult to erase the past, or the prices paid for current positions, my intuition (will not call it skill because its effectively gambling) is too buy big this Spring when sentiment is still rock bottom and prices low. Of course - fewer coins will survivve and rise in the next bull run , and are we really at the bottom? 

For what its worth, looking at the alts down over 80% those I may be tempted to dip back into include SUB, NANO,  OMG, ADA.  XRP and XLM did not drop quite so much...and may even have a use-case 😉

Ones that I think will never recover include DENT, NAV, CVC, MCO...

For me - jury ia out on ETH and LTC ....so for a base play its still BTC  

thoughts on your current strategies? I am not rushing back in get , but I hope I dont regret that if a bull season opens ! 

Lindeman 

 

 

I'm expecting btc to hit around $1800 sometime between May and August, so i'm sitting out of everything right now, considering that Vaneck pulled their ETF application more poo will be hitting the fan sooner or later and the wild west should continue until 2020

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The ETF pull had no impact on the market so that looks like a huge positive sign.

To me this dip from $6000 feels quite similar to the drop to $150 in Jan 2015.   That bounced quickly but climbing out of this hole seems to be in slow motion but the market had a lot more steam to let off.

You could draw a big downward wedge on the chart and suggest $2800-$2500 might be hit but at this stage it seems neither here or there to me.  In fact it seems to have walked though the downtrend line which goes all the way back to 20k.    I think we are going to have a bit of an accumulation stage but with events coming later in the year such as the litecoin halving, traders will start to front run this.   I can see the whole crypto market aiming higher by May.   

I did sell some to fiat higher up but Ive traded alts into btc throughout this whole downturn.

My advice will always be the same that alt coins should only be used for trading to grow your bitcoin.

Yes they can outperform bitcoin at times when we have a bull run but even then you should sell back to btc and look for the next alt to get in to.

In a bear market you see what happens to alts - And when the bull market comes they may be replaced by better new alts.  Have a look at the historical lists on coinmarketcap from a few years back and see how many kept their ranking.

So if you are just going to buy and hold then it's safer to just buy bitcoin.

If you're going to trade then don't expect to get any sleep.

It's squeaky-bum time for me at the minute with GRIN.  It looks like somehow I bought the bottom in the $2 range but I'm up at 3am watching the screen.

I've been mentioning crypto to a few people I know again and suggesting the best way to go is buy a little bit each month.  An amount you won't miss like you're paying a utility bill.

I think it's a good time to start because people hate it at the moment and that's been the best time to buy in the past.

 

A warning video below from 2015.  As true now as ever..................................................................

.................apart from the Cryptsy exchange bit since they exit scammed.

 

 

 

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HH - I certainly agree that averaging in over the next few months may be the sensible approach, as timing the bottom is a big ask ....and as the action since Sunday showed, prices could still drop off this base ! My issue is still BTC or alts....

i know what you mean about  alts sometimes being swept aside by newer trendier rivals. My approach has been to hedge with some BTC and use some to convert into alts.  Got to have some BTcc 

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Ok - I am going to say it : I think I am beginning to regret not absolutely backing up the truck this Spring after I started this topic! Sure - I am thrilled at the recent increases ....but I wish I had piled in even more. Hindsight is a glorious thing. I think we may see new BTC ATH by the 4th July US holidays.  Then we can start debating here again on which alts will benefit in the slipstream as people look to take BTC profits into new plays.  

Simple question then: what would be everyones favorite alt speculation for the coming months ? ADA, NANO, XLM, OMG on my list.  

Or is it BTC all the way!?

Lindeman 

Edited by Lindeman

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16 hours ago, Kman said:

I always wonder what kind of people wait until now to think "ahh it's back at £9k! now is my point of entry" 

Who are these late late hype train jumpers on 

I think you'll be surprised what hype can do. If you see it going up 1k a day a lot of people will think i can make a quick 1k here. 

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The last 24 hours have proven yet again that BTC can be manipulated up / down at the whim of the active whales. Its what make this truly lucrative and fascinating ...but also what needs to stop before pension funds / Fidelity etc start offering BTC as a credible long term investment option. 

Anyway - down $3000 in 24 hours gives everyone another bite at the cherry before it gets loaded up and over the $20k soon enough.  Before everyone says “you cannot know what is going to happen in future” ...I get that totally 😇, anyone that really believes TA for crypto is delusional in my view.  You just have to put your chips on the table and hope that your strategy pays off !

 I see it as four  decisions that I have control over: 

1- what coin to buy.

2- what price I buy at

3 - what price I sell at  

4 - how much of my $$ to put on the table (relative to other investment options)   

The rest is a bit of a rollercoaster ..but a jolly sight more exciting than watching UK or US index funds. And we are helping fuel the development of distributed ledger technologies which will eventually lead to  the greater democratisation of the global financial system and trust-based transactions.   

 

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51 minutes ago, Lindeman said:

The last 24 hours have proven yet again that BTC can be manipulated up / down at the whim of the active whales. Its what make this truly lucrative and fascinating ...but also what needs to stop before pension funds / Fidelity etc start offering BTC as a credible long term investment option. 

Once the institutions come in, the current "whales" will look like shrimp. 

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