Time to buy China

[vand]

Chinese stock market has broken its long term downtrend after double bottom:

Market is fundamentally very cheap: https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=CHN 

Time to buy this market aggressively.

[QStack]

Wouldn't even have a clue how i would go about buying into this market.

[PansPurse]

I think most brokers will at least offer funds that target China or that part of the far east?

This is just a fraction of the Chinese-exposed funds offered by Hargreaves Lansdown

[vand]

Fidelity offer 19 mutual funds and 3 ETFs if search on "China"

[KevinFlynn]

135 funds, all of them were in the red last year but massively in plus the last three years. Now would be the time to buy...

 

[QStack]

So what funds are you guys in? I've been thinking of dipping my toe in to investing for a few years but i'd have to do "a lot" of research in to it before i invest my hard earned fiat  

[Norskgeld]

Think I'll stick to buying Sovs lads.😄

[intelinside]

I'm in on china in the long run but I think it to go all in no? 

 

Just because it breaks the trend does that mean it's mooning? Can't it be a dead cat bounce?  What if there's a continuation of tradewar and there's some massive long term recession like US Stock market crash and global meltdown?!?

 

If you do invest how about an ETF like FXI which just takes all the top companies in china?

[KevinFlynn]

All In is never a good strategy in my eyes (not unless it is your own house to live in and you amass your capital there).

I am by no means an expert, I am trying to use the cost average effect and hope it works out.

With the logic of a non expert: next to every fund has done bad recently. To me that looks like a general trend, not like the fault of the specific market or the fonds management. Whatever happens, China cannot help being a growth market. So the general tendency is there and if I want China I can buy, and it will most likely be relatively cheap at this moment. But it is at least a mid time investment, no riches to come quickly [/none expert out]

Then there's opportunity cost - there are very good perfoming funds at the moment, those are however not tied to China...

Like with gold, it is about what you want from the investment.

[vand]

Agree, all-in on anything is much less investing and more gambling. 

I look for markets that could double or triple in the next 5-10 years. If you ask me is there a chance the FTSE or SP500 could double from these levels, I would say no chance at all, but China has a good chance.

I did this buying the Nikkei when it was grinding below 10,000, and recently bagged the gains and moved the money into other cheap sectors. You couldn't find anyone even interested in discussing Japanese stocks back in 2010-2012 (remember Fukishima and all that stuff?). I only wish I have bought a lot more.

Somewhere in the world there is always a market that is cheap, crushed by a bear market and ready to bounce back. 5-7 years ago that was Japan. Today it is commodities and Chinese stocks. Buy them with enthusiasm when no one else is interested. Don't worry where they'll be in 12 months time. Sit on them and wait for them to turnaround, and don't even think about selling them until the mainstream media says you should be buying them, because that only happens after the bulk of the gains have come and the past performance is then projected into the future.

[intelinside]

Thanks for responses above guys

This is infographic i found on growth GDP 2030

 

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/worlds-largest-10-economies-2030/

very interesting looks like USA and EU will grow lots but look at China and Asian countries including Russia  and look at EGYPT!!!largest 10 economies in 2030

I just wonder about RISK in China vs stable countries like USA, Britain, Germany, Japan etc  Could we lose our shirts investing in China?

[KevinFlynn]

You did not read the memo? ☺️

The West is dead.

China and India will rule the world.

☺️

[intelinside]

5 minutes ago, KevinFlynn said:

You did not read the memo? ☺️

The West is dead.

China and India will rule the world.

☺️

Oh yeaahhhh i forgot about that....I actually got that memo in 1999  then in 2007 then in 20015 and invested in China, BRIC etfs, in brazil, in Turkey, in Russia, India all sorts of ETFs.... they kept saying ohhh the emerging markets, 10 years later ohhh the emerging markets.... 10 years later 2019  my Turkey stocks lost 80%, chinese stocks are about even 0% , Brazil is up 20%. , Russia is up about 15% from 2011......  My european and US stocks are up 200%-500%....

[intelinside]

8 hours ago, vand said:

Agree, all-in on anything is much less investing and more gambling. 

I look for markets that could double or triple in the next 5-10 years. If you ask me is there a chance the FTSE or SP500 could double from these levels, I would say no chance at all, but China has a good chance.

I did this buying the Nikkei when it was grinding below 10,000, and recently bagged the gains and moved the money into other cheap sectors. You couldn't find anyone even interested in discussing Japanese stocks back in 2010-2012 (remember Fukishima and all that stuff?). I only wish I have bought a lot more.

Somewhere in the world there is always a market that is cheap, crushed by a bear market and ready to bounce back. 5-7 years ago that was Japan. Today it is commodities and Chinese stocks. Buy them with enthusiasm when no one else is interested. Don't worry where they'll be in 12 months time. Sit on them and wait for them to turnaround, and don't even think about selling them until the mainstream media says you should be buying them, because that only happens after the bulk of the gains have come and the past performance is then projected into the future.

This sounds like the advice I was told about Turkey, and China in 2006-2007.

My Turkish stocks have done nothing but fall. China went up about 10-20%

 

My US stocks are up like 100% Euro like 50%

[KevinFlynn]

I would treat China (and India) as high risk investments, expecting high returns over five to ten years. I feel that like with silver it is a speculation waiting for a correction.

But I would never make the mistake to make it my main investment.

 

Turkey is a special case, as they bowed to a religious nutcase and let the unwashed masses decide. I think China will never make that mistake. They are exerting too much control and are breeding their system into the coming generation (social credits).

[Sal]

On 23/01/2019 at 04:34, vand said:

Chinese stock market has broken its long term downtrend after double bottom:

Market is fundamentally very cheap: https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=CHN 

Time to buy this market aggressively.

And what happens if Trump and the USA escalate the tariffs and/or no deal is worked out between the two. Personally I don't see China backing off on their technology transfer/stealing from other countries. Could go either way but if it goes wrong watch out below. Do you actually believe any of the #'s China puts out concerning their economy? Not me

[intelinside]

1 hour ago, Sal said:

And what happens if Trump and the USA escalate the tariffs and/or no deal is worked out between the two. Personally I don't see China backing off on their technology transfer/stealing from other countries. Could go either way but if it goes wrong watch out below. Do you actually believe any of the #'s China puts out concerning their economy? Not me

I'm part chinese american. 

These people (mainland chinese) want to beat the west. They're highly competitive, have stolen from us for decades etc but they're also a lot of differnt types of chinese.  A large amount of them envy and are fond of American culture and productivity.  But their government squaishes individualism and is socialist/capitalist and they are controlling their people.

Chinese they want to trade and grow prosper too but they definitely want to beat us.  I don't trust them myself.  We need to work with them yes, but these people are differnent.  They're commies and run by a collective state run government. We are about freedom and need to avoid going the chinese route (big brother 1984)

It's part of their culture to be entrepreneurial...as is ours, but we have to remain capitalist and fight socialism to beat these people.  Our government doesn't know what it's doing (US British, western gov) and the chinese government is more controlling but is also commie

Ther's a space wher we can work with china, but I think that the US needs to step up their game for sure.  We need to prepare like they are.  There's lots of blind consumerism type people in the west.  Chinese have high savings and low debt per person.  Their government is high debt though and likely bubbly.  

We have to step up our game

[vand]

16 hours ago, Sal said:

And what happens if Trump and the USA escalate the tariffs and/or no deal is worked out between the two. Personally I don't see China backing off on their technology transfer/stealing from other countries. Could go either way but if it goes wrong watch out below. Do you actually believe any of the #'s China puts out concerning their economy? Not me

No one will give a bad about Trump’s posturing 24 months from now, never mind 10 years from now. 

[Sal]

3 hours ago, vand said:

No one will give a bad about Trump’s posturing 24 months from now, never mind 10 years from now. 

Except when he wins a second term.

[KevinFlynn]

2 minutes ago, Sal said:

Except when he wins a second term.

I think we would try to wall off America then and throw all dollars we could find in there as well...

 

☺️

[Sal]

17 minutes ago, KevinFlynn said:

I think we would try to wall off America then and throw all dollars we could find in there as well...

 

☺️

Speaking of our wall I wish the obstructionists democrats would give it up and stop trying to let the scum of the world enter our country and suck of our social welfare program. Sick and tired of paying for people that are here illegally sucking off of my dime. How is that working for Merkel and Germany these days? 

[vand]

18 hours ago, Sal said:

Except when he wins a second term.

I would say the market has already priced in all of your concerns - and probably a few more that you never even thought of.

 

[vand]

Bottom picking in Jan 2019 looks like a good call at this stage. Rallied back to the 200dma.

http://schrts.co/AMmvjami

[KevinFlynn]

On 27/01/2019 at 16:56, Sal said:

... Sick and tired of paying for people that are here illegally sucking off of my dime. How is that working for Merkel and Germany these days? 

We have a welfare budget the relative size of your military budget and vice versa. The additional cost does barely recognize.

[vand]

Woop woop