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angus

Gold Price prjection - what do you think?

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1 hour ago, ilovesilverireallydo said:

Don’t get me wrong, I think this video is not great. However I know in my lifetime golds gone up 25x 

in another 45 years who knows ;) 

E04C38E0-680C-4105-AB55-7D08E2FE5572.jpeg

Your analysis is flawed for most  of your life that didn't happen.

Essentially did nothing ( minimal gains) for 35 years  until the financial crash after the crash it's been dropped dramatically and now is essentially doing nothing again (marginal gains )

 

The stock market rose much higher than that 

 

I like gold think it's a great hedge bit it's not a fabulous investment 

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Just now, 4Nines7Hills said:

Your analysis is flawed for most  of your life that didn't happen.

Essentially did nothing ( minimal gains) for 35 years  until the financial crash after the crash it's been dropped dramatically and now is essentially doing nothing again (marginal gains )

 

The stock market rose much higher than that 

 

I like gold think it's a great hedge bit it's not a fabulous investment 

I don’t see it as an investment at all ;) 

I see it as a hedge against inflation and a saving mechanism: I am prone to buying stuff cause I like to collect, so I collect coins to satisfy that stupid part of my personality lol

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13 minutes ago, sixgun said:

...

 have heard estimates of up to 40 000 tonnes between them. This seems high but i would not be surprised if they were in the 30 - 40 thousand tonne range.

...

Do you really mean 30,000 to 40,000 tons? That would be a huge multiple of the official reserves and a multiple of known annual gold production.

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China doesn't have anywhere near that much on official reserves 

I doub it has  that much in  total  bit a country didn't have to declare all the gold it owns only the gold it's using as reserve .

 

If i was China  I'd keep quiet how much I had  until I had enough to challenge the dollar 

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10 minutes ago, KevinFlynn said:

Do you really mean 30,000 to 40,000 tons? That would be a huge multiple of the official reserves and a multiple of known annual gold production.

Yes i mean this. The official figures are meaningless. The West is not going to admit how much has been sold, how depleted Western reserves must have become. China/Russia are not going to admit this either. Gold exports out of the UK distort the non-EU trade figures.

China mines roughly 500 tonnes of gold a year and it is kept in China.

China has been hording gold for at least a decade. Russia has been selling oil for gold.

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Well, I have no ways of knowing the truth, but I have been thinking about stacking some Renminbi for a while 😉

 

I need to admit that America is kind of dead to me given what I learned about the gold standard-dollar standard-money bubble and especially after our recent history. Not that I like China in it's contemptous ways better, but I for my part would welcome any change of the dollar regime that would go along with only medium damage to other countries...

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If Russia and China really had so much gold, there would be a serious amount more available than estimated which would be a negative on gold value.  Cant just hide 10x the amount of gold in reserves.  It plausible that sort of amount could be held within the country, in private hands. 

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15 minutes ago, Martlet said:

  Cant just hide 10x the amount of gold in reserves.  It plausible that sort of amount could be held within the country, in private hands. 

True you can't hide reserve ,  but if you don't class your gold as reserve  you can do what you want 

I'm not saying they have 10x undeclared gold or zero  undeclared gold just saying you don't have to declare it.

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25 minutes ago, Martlet said:

If Russia and China really had so much gold, there would be a serious amount more available than estimated which would be a negative on gold value.  Cant just hide 10x the amount of gold in reserves.  It plausible that sort of amount could be held within the country, in private hands. 

i am using estimates i have been given. China mines 450 tonnes of gold  - do that for 10 years and you have 4500 tonnes already.

The US had almost 20 000 tonnes of gold in 1940. The US claims 8,133.5 tonnes but it has not been audited for decades. Many say the US has next to no gold now.

i agree the numbers seem very high but i have got these from various people who know much more about the gold business than me and have done the sums. Official figures are meaningless - the US probably has no gold. Italy is said to have 2,451.8 tonnes - can we really believe that?

The Chinese and Russians do exactly as they like.

I hear the Chinese hold gold in multiple banks and it doesn't get counted in official reserves but it is Chinese reserves nevertheless.

Edited by sixgun

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For fiat driven governments, especially with the devoutness towards fiat within the financial community over the last decades I doubt anyone would worry about the state of their gold reserves. Great Britain even makes an understatement in that.

Why should they lie about a commodity that the average citizen thinks about as obsolete?

Also, a thousand tons of gold would just average maybe $32,000,000,000 this decade, and much less 20 or 30 years ago. Would that just not have been a drop in the ocean?

 

 

Edited by KevinFlynn
grammar

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Ends up, the projection of gold prices, firstly not everyone gets the timing right for a projected duration, secondly price is a reflection of a nation’s currency against gold’s value, unless a synchronised global gold market & various nation currency moving in tendem, gold price projection in one nation does not necessary represent another nation gold price projection, thirdly supply and demand varies across nations holdings, access & economic policies.

Anyway the video gold price projection of $65,000 per troy ounce is US centric and if the money supply is back by gold scenario. Everyone is entitled to make their own of educated beliefs base on perspective & access to information.

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No governments are going to want to peg their currencies to gold and limit themselves to how much currency they can create.  Under current sanctions, it makes sense for Russia to get rid of their dollars as they don't need it to buy oil since they pump their own.  It does make sense for them to buy gold to show as reserves, as their currency is weak, and they mine quite a bit and can buy it cheaply from domestic miners.  Same for China.  With gold soon to be considered Tier 1 asset, it makes sense for any country with a weak currency to hold gold as a reserve.

Edited by mr1030

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I would suggest that the real problem is all this “paper” gold (and silver) that is bought and sold on the financial markets. 

Only a fraction of the paper gold and silver is backed by physical gold and silver.  I’ve seen it stated that there are over 200 ounces of paper gold to every one ounce of physical gold (and this rises to nearly 300 ounces when derivative trading is taken into account) – and the paper to physical silver ratio appears to be even higher than this.  This would seem to be an amazing game of musical chairs – who is going to be left holding thin air when SHTF?  I suppose the other way of looking at it is to question whether this activity of buying and selling paper gold and silver is almost fraudulent. 

Also, this extra supply of paper gold and silver must be holding down the price of physical gold and silver (the greater the supply then generally the lower the price).  However, the governments that are busy accumulating gold for their reserves are probably happy with this situation.

Anyway, tomorrow I’m off to the local stationery office to buy some gold paper - watch out for my sales offers on the Forum!

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1 minute ago, Zhorro said:

I would suggest that the real problem is all this “paper” gold (and silver) that is bought and sold on the financial markets. 

 

not true, this is another myth by physical metals sellers herding

people into physical metal and a 'reason' why the metals are

manipulated and made a loss for those that they sold to.

the paper markets is only a gauge on the physical markets. eg

if all the miners are selling record paper contracts at x price then

you can bet the price of metals is at x. it's not the paper contracts

that sets the price. it's the miners that are setting the price. if they

can get buyers of their futures contracts(future production) at a

higher price then they would do so. fact is there are insufficient

buyers at the higher prices for the quantities they want to sell.

speculators only bet on price movements. they don't set the price.

it's like saying betting on brexit caused brexit to occur. if you

went to the bookies and bet on remain in sufficient quantities then

remain would have won. which of course is completely untrue.

'voting' and 'only voting' on brexit or remain will help change the

outcome. no amount of betting either way counts.

 

HH

 

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1 hour ago, HawkHybrid said:

the paper markets is only a gauge on the physical markets. eg

if all the miners are selling record paper contracts at x price then

you can bet the price of metals is at x. it's not the paper contracts

that sets the price. it's the miners that are setting the price.

 

My understanding is that it is not the miners that set the price of gold in the international markets it is the financial traders:

“...recent research shows gold prices are derived from London Over-the-Counter (OTC) spot gold market trading and COMEX gold futures trading. It means international gold prices are set by paper gold market, and not by physical gold market. One should understand that supply and demand for physical gold plays no role in setting the gold price in COMEX and London OTC market.” (From an article on the internet by A. Hirani)

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4 hours ago, Zhorro said:

One should understand that supply and demand for physical gold plays no role in setting the gold price in COMEX

 

no proof, just one accusation after another. such bias. the

paper gold market is a leveraged extension of the physical

gold market. if the paper gold market has no connection to

the physical gold market, then why is gold not priced at

significantly lower than the cost of production? if it's all

make believe pricing then there's no problem in pricing it

below the cost of production? do you not see how the paper

gold market is dependant on the physical gold market?

the futures market for gold is just like the futures market for

everything else. it's a platform for trade but is an extension

of the underlying commodity that's traded.

 

HH

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Metal is not being traded on the COMEX or indeed the spot market the vast majority of the time - paper contracts are being traded. If all the longs stood for delivery there would be a massive default because the physical does not exist. i have traded futures contracts in gold and silver and i cannot take delivery - the broker does not allow it. i am trading the price not the metal. There is the evidence it is not physical that is being traded b/c physical is not actually changing hands and for most brokers it is disallowed or at least traders are strongly dissuaded from taking delivery since the majority of trading is done on margin so the traders don't have enough funds - all that happens is that electronic contracts are changing hands.

There is a connection between the physical market and the paper market but it is tenuous. The London fix is based on metal. A gradually diminishing amount of physical is traded each day to determine the benchmark price. This price is dictated by the bullion banks - not the miners, most of which are beholden to the banks.

At all other times the paper price becomes the benchmark. Paper prices are dictated by  supply and demand - the supply and demand for paper. Price moves as paper is bought and sold. Physical sales in the main occur outside these electronic markets. They are on a deal by deal basis. They may be $100's of dollars away from the COMEX price.

The paper price can only hold sway for as long as there is enough physical available at somewhere around the paper price. At the point no-one will sell physical at something like the paper price the game is up.

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8 hours ago, Zhorro said:

I would suggest that the real problem is all this “paper” gold (and silver) that is bought and sold on the financial markets. 

Only a fraction of the paper gold and silver is backed by physical gold and silver.  I’ve seen it stated that there are over 200 ounces of paper gold to every one ounce of physical gold (and this rises to nearly 300 ounces when derivative trading is taken into account) – and the paper to physical silver ratio appears to be even higher than this.  This would seem to be an amazing game of musical chairs – who is going to be left holding thin air when SHTF?  I suppose the other way of looking at it is to question whether this activity of buying and selling paper gold and silver is almost fraudulent. 

Also, this extra supply of paper gold and silver must be holding down the price of physical gold and silver (the greater the supply then generally the lower the price).  However, the governments that are busy accumulating gold for their reserves are probably happy with this situation.

Anyway, tomorrow I’m off to the local stationery office to buy some gold paper - watch out for my sales offers on the Forum!

" buying and selling paper gold and silver is almost fraudulent"   It is fraudulent. They create silver out of thin air by creating contracts. Then sell that contract(which technically is non-existent) since there is no real product to fulfil it. They have to do this to suppress the real price of gold and silver. In 2011 the only reason silver stopped going up is because the price suppression was reinstated. If gold and silver were released to find their true value(or equilibrium) all paper currency's would be toast. The US Gov. knows this and allows it to happen because their giant Ponzi scheme with the banks will end if they didn't. Their house of cards is starting to crumble, you can only manipulate something for so long before it all comes crumbling down.

"This makes for a 250 to 1 ratio between the « paper » market and the physical silver market.

This would mean that, for every ounce of physical silver, there are 250 ounces of « paper » silver circulating in several financial products. In other words, only one contract or certificate issued out of 250 would be convertible in physical silver.

The disconnect between physical and « paper », or virtual, markets is considerable.

The financialisation of the silver market is resulting in a leverage of 250 to 1.

(The multiplication of those financial products on silver has skirted investors’ demand from the real physical market, thus creating a virtual silver supply without putting any pressure on the physical silver market. A roundabout way of keeping the price low.)"

 

On the flipside they use the manipulation to keep the price from going below AISC of production. To low and the mines shut down, game over. To high and the currency's implode, game over. They have been walking a tightrope for far to long.

I don't value gold and silver in relation to the USD. If I did it would have to have a ratio of 1:1 compared to the amount of dollars in circulation. That means silver should be around & $700 and gold is $5500. The truth is that they have been suppressing it for so long, and keep moving the yardstick on how to measure inflation its hard to know. Here is a quote from a guy on another forum:

"People are suckers if they are buying gold and silver and VALUING that gold and silver in terms of worthless paper dollars, and who think they are losing when the dollar price of silver and gold go down.

A gold ounce 900 years ago is still a gold ounce today. The dollar price of gold and silver is IRRELEVANT. Gold and silver did not all of a sudden become valuable when America was born and the dollar was created.

Gold and silver are MONEY and are ASSETS. PERIOD!

Edited by STONE

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The fiat value of gold and silver is only irrelevant if you don't want or need to sell or buy any more metals. Try going to any company and buy goods or services with your metal, ain't going to happen. 

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there are so many differing views here

so the key is -

 are the prices of both gold and silver kept artificially low by paper shorts? that is the question

 :)

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....does it matter ? And if it is kept “artificially low” thank goodness ! We wouldn’t have nearly enough ozs if it wasn’t....I mean I am quite happy to see you an oz of gold for $65,000 right now if you truly believe...just pop me a pm...

Edited by Oldun

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2 minutes ago, Oldun said:

....does it matter ? And if it is kept “artificially low” thank goodness ! We wouldn’t have nearly enough ozs if it wasn’t....

so my personal question is are the prices of both gold and silver kept artificially low by paper shorts?

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3 minutes ago, Oldun said:

....does it matter ? And if it is kept “artificially low” thank goodness ! We wouldn’t have nearly enough ozs if it wasn’t....I mean I am quite happy to see you an oz of gold for $65,000 right now if you truly believe...just pop me a pm...

You missed the edit.

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It doesn’t matter.......the agreed price is what you accept.......as with everything and everything......and my ozs are for sale at $60,000 a pop....so you can still make a $5,000 profit on the $65,000 an oz promised by the idiot in the video....win win surely !

Edited by Oldun

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